Now juddles if you are going to teach me about Corona virus you will have to be a little bit more careful of facts.
Quite the opposite. It's a key driver of the business.
But I have a very thick skin.... I agree with all your points except mortality rates which will be much higher because of Africa and some parts of South America.Hmmm.... I think that I will have to go out on a limb here....
This post will be recorded for ever in AFF, and thus in posting I accept the inevitable detractors that will use it in the future to belittle me if my predictions are wrong
I want to share my current perspectives on Corona. As in what I really think is the reality with this beastie. Me, as a non-medico who relies on a simple combo of news and intellect. This will be a lengthy post, which in itself will be a confrontational facet to younger people, but here we go:
(1) COVID-19 will be a truly global pandemic. The rate at which it has leapt borders shows how susceptible we are to disease.
(2) Despite the sheer mud of stats to trawl through, it is clear that COVID does have some severe impact with a percentage of the population, in this case targetting particularly the older generation.
(3) The virus has a transmissability that is moderately high. Despite many versions of understanding, it appears to be infective even before the carrier is highly affected.
(4) given the high rate of success of the virus to jump human to human, and the intense scope of modern travel, this virus will be present in effectively all areas - all towns, all cities.
(5) The attempts to constrain it have been unsuccessful. They may have slowed it down, but essentially the whole attempt to constrain it has failed. The sheer number of countries worldwide, and places within Australia, have confirmed this. Literally nowhere has managed to stay virus-free.
(6) I think that there are enough cases now present even in regional areas that attempts to geographically contain it have already failed. And with the exponential increase in numbers that any such thing entails, we are rapidly (if not already past) approaching a point that containment is simply impossible.
This is where I get to delve into predictions that today, 8th of March, may seem ludicrous. But this post is just about how I think things will evolve.....
(7) In two or so weeks the number of cases within Australia will skyrocket. As it will in any of the countries that are able to actually test for the virus. A simple prediction based on mathematics....
(8) It may not happen before Easter (but it may), but the Australian government will take steps, drastic ones that have never been seen before. Schools will be closed. All manner of public events will be cancelled in the next few months. The government will move from a position of panic-prevention to actual real steps.
(9) Corona virus will sweep Australia in the next few months. Our top-notch medical facilities will help us to endure this better than many countries, but we will still suffer.
(10) the mortality rate overall will be significant. I expect about 10 to 50 thousands victims......
Well obviously with that high a mortality rate most of us won't have to worry as we will be dead.
The problem is that you are getting your news from the media.Not a reliable source in situations such as this.
.
Yes indeed. Our current experience with Covid-19 highlights how poorly equipped we are, despite all the technology, to defend ourselves against a novel virial pandemic, which will happen again and is, I reckon, more likely to be our extinction event than global nuclear war or an impact from a large celestial object.
I think it is an impossible task. We just can't afford to have massive medical technology on hand. The virus requires extensive life support systems in severe cases.
. Would love your crystal ball for a moment can you give me the power ball numbers for next week quickly?Every truth passes through three stages before it is recognized. In the first stage it is ridiculed, in the second stage it is opposed, in the third stage it is regarded as self-evident. ” —Schopenhauer
Hmmm.... I think that I will have to go out on a limb here....
This post will be recorded for ever in AFF, and thus in posting I accept the inevitable detractors that will use it in the future to belittle me if my predictions are wrong
I want to share my current perspectives on Corona. As in what I really think is the reality with this beastie. Me, as a non-medico who relies on a simple combo of news and intellect. This will be a lengthy post, which in itself will be a confrontational facet to younger people, but here we go:
(1) COVID-19 will be a truly global pandemic. The rate at which it has leapt borders shows how susceptible we are to disease.
(2) Despite the sheer mud of stats to trawl through, it is clear that COVID does have some severe impact with a percentage of the population, in this case targetting particularly the older generation.
(3) The virus has a transmissability that is moderately high. Despite many versions of understanding, it appears to be infective even before the carrier is highly affected.
(4) given the high rate of success of the virus to jump human to human, and the intense scope of modern travel, this virus will be present in effectively all areas - all towns, all cities.
(5) The attempts to constrain it have been unsuccessful. They may have slowed it down, but essentially the whole attempt to constrain it has failed. The sheer number of countries worldwide, and places within Australia, have confirmed this. Literally nowhere has managed to stay virus-free.
(6) I think that there are enough cases now present even in regional areas that attempts to geographically contain it have already failed. And with the exponential increase in numbers that any such thing entails, we are rapidly (if not already past) approaching a point that containment is simply impossible.
This is where I get to delve into predictions that today, 8th of March, may seem ludicrous. But this post is just about how I think things will evolve.....
(7) In two or so weeks the number of cases within Australia will skyrocket. As it will in any of the countries that are able to actually test for the virus. A simple prediction based on mathematics....
(8) It may not happen before Easter (but it may), but the Australian government will take steps, drastic ones that have never been seen before. Schools will be closed. All manner of public events will be cancelled in the next few months. The government will move from a position of panic-prevention to actual real steps.
(9) Corona virus will sweep Australia in the next few months. Our top-notch medical facilities will help us to endure this better than many countries, but we will still suffer.
(10) the mortality rate overall will be significant. I expect about 10 to 50 thousands victims......
The Medicare only comes part way to funding ongoing public health issues. Probably just scratches the surface of the actual cost in reality. Health is like a bottomless bucket of costs.
