General Coronavirus chit chat thread - non-travel specific

[pauly7]

For those that are knocking Government this thread explains what is going on.Sorry it is very long.

Australian Reports of the Virus Spread

There are so many visits to doctors that are IMHO unnecessary to be physical presence. Indeed , I am constantly irritated by the need for face to face consultations for routine stuff like scrips. Otoh… the gp's run a business and it needs paying customers. Bulk billing is a distant memory...

www.australianfrequentflyer.com.au

It’s the poor communication from the Government rather than their actions that has most people confused.

 

[ja1]

Any organism that manages to super-populate tends to get an eventual "correction" by dear old mother nature....

Reminding me of the old joke. To paraphase a bit:

Humans: Ha.. we are going to destroy you planet earth..
Earth: I don't think so. Activating counter measures.
Humans: Your counter measures are useless. We will employ social legal and political measures that ensure all humans are dead so your counter measures have nothing to work on!
Earth: <twiddles thumbs> <waits>

 

[Pushka]

Pushka, it is not IMHO about wet markets. It is the perennial course of nature to take down exploding populations. people have been clamouring about Climate Change for years now, but avoiding the far more explosive reality about sheer population numbers. Any organism that manages to super-populate tends to get an eventual "correction" by dear old mother nature....

How do you know it's not Mother Nature at work when a dense live animal population is living with a dense human population. I agree. There are too many people on the planet. Too much urbanisation. Leading to heat creating cities of bitumen.

 

[ja1]

maybe, just maybe, actually get out of our decade's old traditional thought boxes, and try some thoughtful innovation? Simple things - like acknowledging that forcing peope into close contact is what super-drives such epidemics - so look at all the ways we can minimize this. Have universities allow/promote online content.

Unis have been working on online content delivery for years now (and large chunks are already delivered this way). There are studies showing that students rarely (if at all!) ever attend all classes and in some instances it's as low as 36% attendance.. as you can catch all the lectures online and work on online delivery of a lot of assessment online too.

But it doesn't cover everything and you can't (yet) do online delivery for a bunch of things that require labs (e.g. anatomy)

But yes, we do need to think about the cost of diseases like this and government and employers who insist on a 'self isolation' with no thought as to how people would support themselves and families for this period of time, or the nature of work.. (gig economy, seasonal economy)..

Just imagine you make 20 or even 50% of your annual income from a single event (like the F1 in Melbourne coming up) and you're asked to just avoid this one event in the course of a 2 week isolation period..

Or your employer is asking you to stay away and use leave - but if you have already used it then you're on LWOP, is it not surprising that some people might decide they're going to need to work anyway? Especially if they have no symptoms and are hoping for the best or think it won't be a big deal..

 

[juddles]

Unis have been working on online content delivery for years now (and large chunks are already delivered this way). There are studies showing that students rarely (if at all!) ever attend all classes and in some instances it's as low as 36% attendance.. as you can catch all the lectures online and work on online delivery of a lot of assessment online too.

But it doesn't cover everything and you can't (yet) do online delivery for a bunch of things that require labs (e.g. anatomy)
....

Where do you get this from? My daughter is in first year uni at Sunshine Coast University. Obviously she needs to attend the prac components as these are hands - on. But as for general lectures, she has to provide medical certificates and pay to enable online access to sheer lectures. I think this is where the divide between ideals and realities becomes obvious.... So far, this university has absolutely no real plan or program for online studies. So when i hear you say that "unis have been working on online content for years" I believe you. But I also believe that they have not yet managed to offer this, despite no doubt a gazzillion dollars spent on those examining their navels...

 

[pauly7]

Where do you get this from? My daughter is in first year uni at Sunshine Coast University. Obviously she needs to attend the prac components as these are hands - on. But as for general lectures, she has to provide medical certificates and pay to enable online access to sheer lectures. I think this is where the divide between ideals and realities becomes obvious.... So far, this university has absolutely no real plan or program for online studies. So when i hear you say that "unis have been working on online content for years" I believe you. But I also believe that they have not yet managed to offer this, despite no doubt a gazzillion dollars spent on those examining their navels...

Ummm..wow do you mind me asking what University and what degree? I’m on the board of a uni and a huge range of our subjects can be delivered 100% online or hybrid model. All our competitors can too.

Some practical subjects/courses of course it is not possible (eg Med, Physio, some sciences etc)

 

[ja1]

Where do you get this from? My daughter is in first year uni at Sunshine Coast University. Obviously she needs to attend the prac components as these are hands - on. But as for general lectures, she has to provide medical certificates and pay to enable online access to sheer lectures. I think this is where the divide between ideals and realities becomes obvious.... So far, this university has absolutely no real plan or program for online studies. So when i hear you say that "unis have been working on online content for years" I believe you. But I also believe that they have not yet managed to offer this, despite no doubt a gazzillion dollars spent on those examining their navels...

Blink.

I'm not doubting you but that sounds so wrong compared to the Universities I've been working at or with over the last 10+ years in this area.

To use public information, the University of Queensland joined edX 7+ years ago in terms of online learning at a global scale and I know they've had online teaching for much longer than that.

I don't know of any Unis that are putting course content online and charging students extra to access that content (except SCU as you've just pointed out - hadn't heard of that before).

It wouldn't surprise me entirely but you have given an example of one of the smallest/newest universities in Australia - out of 43 in total)

 

[oirets]

Here's some good news coming out of the media about COVID-19 for a change: Northern summer may help stem tide of coronavirus

This is what I was alluding to here yesterday about the warmer months stemming the tide. Looking positive for anyone heading to Europe in the coming months.

Also good news today is that the increase in cases has fallen for the very first time since the worldwide outbreak. There were less new cases yesterday than there were new cases the day before.

 

[Sabot]

Where do you get this from? My daughter is in first year uni at Sunshine Coast University. Obviously she needs to attend the prac components as these are hands - on. But as for general lectures, she has to provide medical certificates and pay to enable online access to sheer lectures. I think this is where the divide between ideals and realities becomes obvious.... So far, this university has absolutely no real plan or program for online studies. So when i hear you say that "unis have been working on online content for years" I believe you. But I also believe that they have not yet managed to offer this, despite no doubt a gazzillion dollars spent on those examining their navels...

Weird, most universities are approaching 100% online delivery (or atleast the option of).
When studying I will go months between attendances, the delivery is that good.

USC is still a relatively new university, they are still catching up.

 

[PLANT]

This is not me...... Yet!

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https://twitter.com/x/status/1237627570276925440

 

[lovetravellingoz]

Where do you get this from? My daughter is in first year uni at Sunshine Coast University. Obviously she needs to attend the prac components as these are hands - on. But as for general lectures, she has to provide medical certificates and pay to enable online access to sheer lectures. I think this is where the divide between ideals and realities becomes obvious.... So far, this university has absolutely no real plan or program for online studies. So when i hear you say that "unis have been working on online content for years" I believe you. But I also believe that they have not yet managed to offer this, despite no doubt a gazzillion dollars spent on those examining their navels...

Perhaps at your daughter's University, but my youngest daughter for the last two years has done the majority of her Psychology Degree Online as she actually prefers her studies that way. It also allows her to work upto 4 days a week as she likes to keep busy.

The other two daughters preferred more being on campus, but regularly watched some lectures online when they were ill, or it just suited them for various reasons.

 

[lovetravellingoz]

Here's some good news coming out of the media about COVID-19 for a change: Northern summer may help stem tide of coronavirus

This is what I was alluding to here yesterday about the warmer months stemming the tide. Looking positive for anyone heading to Europe in the coming months.

Also good news today is that the increase in cases has fallen for the very first time since the worldwide outbreak. There were less new cases yesterday than there were new cases the day before.

Read this as well then for some more possible cheer...
report on Temperature and latitude analysis to predict potential spread and seasonality for COVID-19

 

[Sabot]

The virus is going to be nothing compared the tantrum I'll throw tomorrow if it turns out this QF booking issue I've been having means I'm in a middle seat. Picture related.

View attachment 208875

Crisis averted guys, ended up in 6C.
At the AOG show in Perth, pretty quiet though, anyone else here despite coronavirus and $28/bbl oil?

 

[teammongo]

WHO delcare pandemic.

ABC - WHO delcare pandemic

 

[Pushka]

WHO delcare pandemic.

ABC - WHO delcare pandemic

Does this actually change anything though?

 

[teammongo]

It makes it easier for those governments sitting in the fence to respond and get funding.. eg lmic’s

 

[Denali]

It makes it easier for those governments sitting in the fence to respond and get funding.. eg lmic’s

Government fence sitting....

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[Quickstatus]

Seattle ICU Dr experience with Covid19 patients: (From a colleague who has a ICU contact in Seattle)

(sorry for the medical mumbo jumbo)

Unlike China they don't do Chest CT = does not change their management and means CT scanning room needs to be Covid cleaned after every scan.
Unlike china they dont do mega dose steroi_s (methylprednisolone) = possibly more harm than good

80% mildly ill
14% hospital ill




Trigger warning - below is the bad stuff:
6% critically ill requiring ICU
some elderly too sick deemed to be unsuitable for ICU sent to palliative care and late/limited testing means data skewed

Of hospitalised cases 1/3 mild lower respiratory symptoms (upper = runny nose sore throat) and need 1-3litres/min nasal O2 supplementation
1/3 need humidified high flow nasal O2 >30L/min at minimum 30-50% O2 concentration and 1/3 are intubated and placed on a ventilator.
Their practice is to move quickly from the second to third early. Problem is ICU ventilator availability. Hence some hard decisions made regarding the ones likely to benefit from ICU.

Some talk of commandeering ventilators from Veterinarians.

Other features:
Persistent fevers often for more than a week
Liver tests mildly up
Kidney test mildly up, hardly ever kidney failure
Almost always normal white cell count but lymphopenia (a white cell subtype in the blood - lymphocytes count is low = "penia)
Chest Xray bilateral pneumonia and just as helpful as Chest CT

Common progression for those who end up in ICU:
Come in with mild then within 12 hours progress to humidified nasal O2 then within a day in ICU intubated = ICU destined ones tend to deteriorate very quickly, hence they tend to move quickly to intubation when high flow O2 is required and also intubation also markedly reduced aerosolised secretions from coughing.

The problem while intubated is different to influenza. There is less of a problem with the patient getting sufficient O2, more of a problem with the lung mechanics - stiffer lungs harder to ventilate.

Then there is a subset who cant get better from the respiratory disease and die
Some get better and remain better

@drron this may be of interest to you:
Then there is a group who seem to get better then rapidly deteriorate and go into shock from cardiomyopathy. Their heart rapidly starts failing and then rapid death from cardiac failure
This is very unusual and generally not seen in influenza deaths
Cardiac failure death usually associated with asystole (no heart electrical rhythm) or PEA pulseless electrical activity (heart rhythm but not coinciding with a pulse). Meaning defibrillation with the Packer Whackers don't work
A small number have VT/VF which is amenable to the Packer Whackers.
Ejection fraction of heart (measure of heart pumping power) goes from normal >50% to <10% in a matter of a day or so.
No troponin rise (= not indicative of a heart attack)
Due to the numbers it is not possible to put all these heart failure patients on a ECMO (heart lung machine), though they are used

They are trialling Remdesivir (an antiviral drug with some success in modifying the trajectory but limited stock of this means long term treatment is not possible.

 

[Pushka]

Seattle ICU Dr experience with Covid19 patients: (From a colleague who has a ICU contact in Seattle)

(sorry for the medical mumbo jumbo)

Unlike China they don't do Chest CT = does not change their management and means CT scanning room needs to be Covid cleaned after every scan.
Unlike china they dont do mega dose steroi_s = more harm than good

80% mildly ill
14% hospital ill
8% critically ill requiring ICU
some elderly too sick deemed to be unsuitable for ICU sent to palliative care and late/limited testing means data skewed

Of hospitalised cases 1/3 mild lower respiratory symptoms (upper = runny nose sore throat) and need 1-3litres/min nasal O2 supplementation
1/3 need humidified high flow nasal O2 >30L/min at minimum 30-50% O2 concentration and 1/3 are intubated and placed on a ventilator.
Their practice is to move quickly from the second to third early. Problem is ICU ventilator availability. Hence some hard decisions made regarding the ones likely to benefit from ICU.

Some talk of commandeering ventilators from Veterinarians.

Other features:
Persistent fevers often for more than a week
Liver tests mildly up
Kidney test mildly up, hardly ever kidney failure
Almost always normal white cell count but lymphopenia (a white cell subtype in the blood - lymphocytes count is low = "penia)
Chest Xray bilateral pneumonia and just as helpful as Chest CT

Common progression for those who end up in ICU:
Come in with mild then within 12 hours progress to humidified nasal O2 then within a day in ICU intubated = ICU destined ones tend to deteriorate very quickly, hence they tend to move quickly to intubation when high flow O2 is required and also intubation also markedly reduced aerosolised secretions from coughing.

The problem while intubated is different to influenza. There is less of a problem with the patient getting sufficient O2, more of a problem with the lung mechanics - stiffer lungs harder to ventilate.

Then there is a subset who cant get better from the respiratory disease and die
Some get better and remain better

@drron this may be of interest to you:
Then there is a group who seem to get better then rapidly deteriorate and go into shock from cardiomyopathy. Their heart rapidly starts failing and then rapid death from cardiac failure
This is very unusual and generally not seen in influenza deaths
Cardiac failure death usually associated with asystole (no heart rhythm or PEA pulseless electrical activity (heart rhythm but not coinciding with a pulse). Meaning defibrillation with the Packer Whackers don't work
A small number have VT/VF which is amenable to the Packer Whackers.
Ejection fraction of heart (measure of heart pumping power) goes from normal >50% to <10% in a matter of a day or so.
No troponin rise (= not indicative of a heart attack)
Due to the numbers it is not possible to put all these heart failure patients on a ECMO (heart lung machine), though they are used

They are trialling Remdesivir (an antiviral drug with some success in modifying the trajectory but limited stock of this means long term treatment is not possible.

I wish I'd never read that...

 

[Quickstatus]

I wish I'd never read that...

Ok Ive added a trigger warning

Take home message is that maybe 94% don't require ICU treatment. Does that sound better?

On the other side of the coin if ICU needed then mortality over 50% on their current data.