General Coronavirus chit chat thread - non-travel specific

[Pushka]

Any sign of a curve is great news especially in lotfap….

The number of new coronavirus cases in Florida appears to be flattening, but it’s unclear if the trend will hold. Based on case data from the past three weeks and the expected exponential growth curve that epidemiologists and national public health officials are seeing in other locations, Florida should have posted somewhere in the neighborhood of 340 to 380 new coronavirus cases today.

That didn’t happen.

Out of the 1,961 test results that came back today, the state identified just 240 positive cases, while the rest, nearly 88 percent, or 1,721 cases, came back negative. Those relatively low numbers come after Florida’s Department of Health found just 200 cases on Monday, which was 44 fewer than Sunday’s all-time high. But even Sunday’s total should have been significantly higher if Florida was experiencing steady exponential growth.

The conclusion is obvious: Florida expected exponential growth curve for the virus has inarguably started to flatten out over the last several days, which has lowered expectations going forward, too (note the new, much lower trendline in green on the chart below):

Florida posts fourth straight day of flat COVID-19 case growth. Is the curve already bending?

The number of new coronavirus cases in Florida appears to be flattening, but it’s unclear if the trend will hold. Based on case data from the past three weeks and the expected exponential gro…

thecapitolist.com

I wish it were true but as I mentioned in the cruise thread, even with a fever and having been on Ruby Princess, in NY one passenger has been refused a test so many times. Don't test and you don't find.

 

[tgh]

I guess the admin is taking a leaf out of the China book and minimising numbers where they can.
A week ago some states had already stopped testing , just assume anyone with symptoms is positive and treat accordingly.
Sorta makes sense in a sad way…..

 

[Pushka]

I guess the admin is taking a leaf out of the China book and minimising numbers where they can.
A week ago some states had already stopped testing , just assume anyone with symptoms is positive and treat accordingly.
Sorta makes sense in a sad way…..

And that will come here. But it makes a useless statistic in terms of death and infection rates. And that is what happened with swine flu. They just stopped testing.

 

[ja1]

Sorry my question wasn't clear.

If there's a total shutdown of 2 weeks (which is the period of incubation), then anyone who is potentially infected and not showing symptoms would either have recovered, or require medical attention, then we'd know how many cases we have to deal with.

Thanks Kyle - makes sense now.

The problem is that 14 days is an average that we're working with. Actual incubation has been shown to be as long as 27 days (i.e 3 weeks)

You're also dealing with asymmetric infection - not everyone in lockdown can be guaranteed to be infected all at the same time if they were going to be infected at all.

What happens when on day 13 of the lockdown, someone only at that stage gets an infection (so on average they need to be locked down for another 2 weeks)

The answer comes back down to why testing is needed combined with lockdowns. It's always a 3 or 4 dimensional problem (e.g. a Rubiks cube) - not a 1d or 2d issue sadly.

If you lock everyone down you stop community spread for a period of time - which buys you hospital time (2 weeks from now). Until there is a vaccine all you are aiming to do is stop spread and buy time, that's all that can be done. The whole goal is to try to keep the top of the curve under the point where the medical system breaks under load. If that means you get 6 curves of infection but it stays under the top that's a better outcome than a really big curve.

 

[jeza]

Expect to hear a bit more about food security issues due to COVID19 shortly. China has become more active in the Australian grain market recently.

Countries Starting to Hoard Food, Threatening Global Trade

(Bloomberg) -- It’s not just grocery shoppers who are hoarding pantry staples. Some governments are moving to secure domestic food supplies during the conoravirus pandemic.Kazakhstan, one of the world’s biggest shippers of wheat flour, banned exports of that product along with others, including...

finance.yahoo.com

Food security concerns stoked as exporters curb sales, importers buy more

Global food security concerns are mounting as some governments contemplate restricting the flow of staple foods with around a fifth of the world's population under lockdown to fight the widening coronavirus pandemic.

www.reuters.com

 

[tgh]

Another little glow in the gloom as Clive.P…(Australia's favourite billionaire) sends a team shopping worldwide for hydroxychlroquinine.
They are paying in cash and probably bypassing all the usual commerce channels… real bagman stuff.
Add a private jet to fly the booty home and bingo .. a few million doses in the kitty.
Now this probably means that money is talking and some less wealthy purchaser is missing out but the same thing is certainly happening in formal channels where there is reportedly a mad purchasing panic underway.
Clive's (ad)venture is officially supported by the Au government...

 

[mrs.dr.ron]

So the hairdressers next to our local post office this morning

 

[blackcat20]

Someone from my office has been tested, waiting on results. Interesting to see where we go from here.

 

[Cossie]

A friend in Christchurch has a small business that is considered essential, his employees weren't happy about having to work as none of their friends were.

Another friend has a business in the Tweed area, he said it's been so frustrating trying to get his 100 plus employees to follow basic hygiene procedures, i.e., washing hands

 

[Flashback]

A friend in Christchurch has a small business that is considered essential, his employees weren't happy about having to work as none of their friends were.

Another friend has a business in the Tweed area, he said it's been so frustrating trying to get his 100 plus employees to follow basic hygiene procedures, i.e., washing hands

When you say Tweed.... I'm guessing you mean an area as opposed to Harris Tweed like stuff?

 

[Pushka]

Another little glow in the gloom as Clive.P…(Australia's favourite billionaire) sends a team shopping worldwide for hydroxychlroquinine.
They are paying in cash and probably bypassing all the usual commerce channels… real bagman stuff.
Add a private jet to fly the booty home and bingo .. a few million doses in the kitty.
Now this probably means that money is talking and some less wealthy purchaser is missing out but the same thing is certainly happening in formal channels where there is reportedly a mad purchasing panic underway.
Clive's (ad)venture is officially supported by the Au government...

I tweeted him about this a few days ago. Crickets.

 

[Cossie]

When you say Tweed.... I'm guessing you mean an area as opposed to Harris Tweed like stuff?

Yes, sorry, Tweed Heads, Coolangatta area.

 

[Pushka]

Someone from my office has been tested, waiting on results. Interesting to see where we go from here.

Our EA was tested a few days ago. Was quite unwell but negative.

 

[Flashback]

Yes, sorry, Tweed Heads, Coolangatta area.

That's a shame, quite partial to a bit of tweed! Our hockey team was known for it, we'd always kit up in some chinos and tweedy jackets after a game as we enjoyed our post match teas

 

[get me outta here]

The next thing will be putting the Aus economy into 'hibernation', whatever that looks like.

 

[Flying mermaid]

So the hairdressers next to our local post office this morning
View attachment 211002

Dr FM offered to send us 32 rolls from London . Her share flat has all that sort of thing supplied and they already had masses of toilet rolls. It’s supposed to be cleaned every two weeks but can’t be because of the lockdown. However they can still drop supplies - so they had 32 extra toilet rolls given to them yesterday.

 

[Flashback]

Dr FM offered to send us 32 rolls from London . Her share flat has all that sort of thing supplied and they already had masses of toilet rolls. It’s supposed to be cleaned every two weeks but can’t be because of the lockdown. However they can still drop supplies - so they had 32 extra toilet rolls given to them yesterday.

Please ask her to send some down to poor old leafy green Surrey

 

[Flying mermaid]

Please ask her to send some down to poor old leafy green Surrey

Well if you could visit her I am sure you could have some, but I guess that’s not allowed!

 

[Flashback]

Well if you could visit her I am sure you could have some, but I guess that’s not allowed!

TFL have been quite specific about it! Non-essential travel is a no no. However...... TP.... essential....... so.....

 

[amaroo]

Now the matter of travel insurance has been settled, we can look forward to the discussion on landlord insurance for the ones that took out "tenant protection".

All of our policies are with AAMI - all with tenant protection. Let's see how that goes...

Update.

Spoke to AAMI, as suspected tenant protection for unpaid rent only kicks in once you have taken all steps to get the unpaid rent or get eviction order. No chance that's going to happen in these trouble times. BTW, we would never evict a tenant under today's circumstances, and I suspect the states will rightly takes steps to ensure this is the case.

Also very similar to travel insurance, once the authorities set or change the rules - no cover.