General Discussion/Q&A on Coronavirus (COVID-19)

[DC3]

.... You can be with one other person while you're out. If you were meeting Aunt Betty at 10.30, I guess you could meet Uncle Frank at 11? ....

Aunt Betty is online/phone contact, only.

 

[serfty]

Something I found out yesterday. In New York roughly 1 in every 400 residents has died of COVID-19 and only about 20% of New Yorkers have contracted it.
I don’t have an answer short of an effective vaccine but herd immunity isn’t going to be an option.

So, in New York those who contract COVID-19 have a 1.25% chance of dying from it.

A 20% chance of contracting the virus is high.

 

[lovetravellingoz]

So, in New York those who contract COVID-19 have a 1.25% chance of dying from it.

A 20% chance of contracting the virus is high.

Which is higher than what the estimated mortality rate can be of about 0.5% or less.

Locations where the health system (including aged care facilities) gets overwhelmed as was the case in NYC seem to suffer higher mortality rates. Various reasons have been raised including people seeking treatment too late, higher viral loads in hospitals thus affecting health workers.

Sweden is thought to be about 0.2 % at present (guesstimating their infection rate). Despite many stating that they are using a herd immunity approach, they are first and foremost seeking to flatten the curve so that their hospitals are not overwhelmed (they admit now though that they bungled with not protecting there age car facilities well enough). Gaining herd immunity is a secondary goal.

 

[lovetravellingoz]

Very good boys: UK to train crack canine team to sniff out COVID-19
By Henry Bodkin
Sniffer dogs will be trained to detect asymptomatic coronavirus carriers under a government-backed initiative that could lead to 250 people being screened every hour.

Asher is one fo the six dogs that could soon be trained to detect if someone has COVID-19. CREDIT:MEDICAL DETECTION DOGS
Three cougher spaniels, two labradors and a labradoodle are to begin intensive training at the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine (LSHTM) using odour samples from patients who have tested positive for the virus, ministers announced last night. If successful, the scheme could form a highly efficient and non-invasive means of singling out the most dangerous people for spreading the disease, the ministers said.
Dogs could be stationed at the entrance to pubs or could sweep through care homes, signalling to their handlers people who should be segregated and tested.

As it happened: Victoria records 11 new cases, Melbourne's west becomes a hotspot as clusters continue

Government data indicates the inner-north-west is becoming a hotspot. The news came on the day many Victorians lapped up the sun to enjoy a slight easing of restrictions.

www.theage.com.au

 

[Flashback]

There's a huge sense of irony here, one of my cancelled trips from this upcoming week...... had me (and Mrs FB and my folks) in Slovenia.

Slovenia Is The First Country In The EU That Declared Its Coronavirus Epidemic Over

Slovenia declared an end to its coronavirus epidemic, opening its borders to the EU citizens and scrapping a requirement for a 7-day quarantine for arrivals

travelslovenia.org

 

[lovetravellingoz]

With Victorian schools now set to start re-opening (Years prep, 1 and 11/12 first) there is now a testing blitz happening on teachers.

1200 teachers tested, Frankston and Werribee drive through test sites reopen
Health Minister Jenny Mikakos said the government had commenced a testing program for teachers ahead of school reopenings, with 1200 teachers tested so far.
"Teachers can be tested regardless whether they are symptomatic or asymptomatic," she said.
Ms Mikakos said she was not aware of any teachers who had so far tested positive.
Testing sites have been re-opened today at Bayside Shopping Centre in Frankston and Pacific Shopping Centre in Werribee due to increase in demand in those areas.

 

[lovetravellingoz]

For those hoping for immunity this is not good news.

The twist here is that:

All five sailors had previously tested positive and had gone through at least two weeks of isolation. As part of the process, they all had to test negative twice in a row, with the tests separated by at least a day or two before they were allowed to go back to the ship.

and then

Five sailors on the US aircraft carrier sidelined in Guam due to a COVID-19 outbreak have tested positive for the virus for the second time and have been taken off the ship, the navy says.

Coronavirus resurgence: Sailors on USS Theodore Roosevelt get COVID-19 twice

Coronavirus resurgence: Sailors on USS Theodore Roosevelt get COVID-19 twice

www.9news.com.au

However I have hear/ready many claims that testing in the USA is not very reliable. So it could possibly just be bad testing.

 

[drron]

Though this fact of retesting positive after being cleared has occurred all over the world.Was happening early on in Wuhan.
No one really sure what it means though many virologists don't feel it is a reinfection and don't think these people are infectious.

 

[drron]

Some views on Hotels and future from Singapore and Spain.

 

[p--and--t]

For those hoping for immunity this is not good news.

The twist here is that:

All five sailors had previously tested positive and had gone through at least two weeks of isolation. As part of the process, they all had to test negative twice in a row, with the tests separated by at least a day or two before they were allowed to go back to the ship.

and then

Five sailors on the US aircraft carrier sidelined in Guam due to a COVID-19 outbreak have tested positive for the virus for the second time and have been taken off the ship, the navy says.

Mutated/ different strain??

 

[lovetravellingoz]

Mutated/ different strain??

While it is mutating (which is why for example they know that NY was mainly infected via Europe) from what I have read it is pretty stable overall so that to all intents and purposes it is still the same virus.

There are two strains however. S is the older and L the newer, but both have spread around the world.

The fact that the L-type is more prevalent suggests that it is “more aggressive” than the S-type, the team say.

“In all practical terms, the virus is as it was when it originally emerged,” says Jones. “There’s no evidence it is getting any worse.”

Read more: Coronavirus: Are there two strains and is one more deadly?

Second coronavirus strain 'more contagious' and spreading faster, researchers find

A group of leading international researchers says coronavirus has already mutated into a second strain which appears to have spread faster and wider than the original one, potentially undermining efforts to create a vaccine.

www.abc.net.au

 

[p--and--t]

While it is mutating (which is why for example they know that NY was mainly infected via Europe) from what I have read it is pretty stable overall so that to all intents and purposes it is still the same virus.

There are two strains however. S is the older and L the newer, but both have spread around the world.

The fact that the L-type is more prevalent suggests that it is “more aggressive” than the S-type, the team say.

“In all practical terms, the virus is as it was when it originally emerged,” says Jones. “There’s no evidence it is getting any worse.”

Read more: Coronavirus: Are there two strains and is one more deadly?

Second coronavirus strain 'more contagious' and spreading faster, researchers find

A group of leading international researchers says coronavirus has already mutated into a second strain which appears to have spread faster and wider than the original one, potentially undermining efforts to create a vaccine.

www.abc.net.au

The article referenced refers to D & G strains.

The point vaccines are being developed for D strain and not G is a tad concerning.

 

[drron]

Not everyone believes the mutations are the same.the European mutation is thought by some to cause more severe illness so the mortality in Europe and NYC.The original Wuhan strain was prevalent in Asia,Oceania and the West Coast of the USA which have lower mortality experience.

Covid-19 mutations underestimated, Chinese scientists warn, as DEADLIEST strains grip Europe and US

Chinese scientists have found that Europe and America’s East Coast have been infected by some of the most aggressive Covid-19 strains, as they discovered dozens of virus mutations. These destroy a host’s cells faster than others.

www.rt.com

Some believe the mutations may be bad news for a vaccine.

Coronavirus mutation threatens race to develop vaccine

Scientists say the search for a vaccine is at "great risk of becoming futile".

www.nzherald.co.nz

Others do not.

Coronavirus mutations: Much ado about nothing | CNN

A recent scientific article suggested that the novel coronavirus responsible for the Covid-19 epidemic has mutated into a more "aggressive" form. Is this something we need to worry about? No, and here's why.

edition.cnn.com

There have been many mutations already.

auspice

nextstrain.org

 

[p--and--t]

Not everyone believes the mutations are the same.the European mutation is thought by some to cause more severe illness so the mortality in Europe and NYC.The original Wuhan strain was prevalent in Asia,Oceania and the West Coast of the USA which have lower mortality experience.

Covid-19 mutations underestimated, Chinese scientists warn, as DEADLIEST strains grip Europe and US

Chinese scientists have found that Europe and America’s East Coast have been infected by some of the most aggressive Covid-19 strains, as they discovered dozens of virus mutations. These destroy a host’s cells faster than others.

www.rt.com

Some believe the mutations may be bad news for a vaccine.

Coronavirus mutation threatens race to develop vaccine

Scientists say the search for a vaccine is at "great risk of becoming futile".

www.nzherald.co.nz

Others do not.

Coronavirus mutations: Much ado about nothing | CNN

A recent scientific article suggested that the novel coronavirus responsible for the Covid-19 epidemic has mutated into a more "aggressive" form. Is this something we need to worry about? No, and here's why.

edition.cnn.com

There have been many mutations already.

auspice

nextstrain.org

Wouldn't that be a turn of events, the whole world working on a vaccine that ends up only being fully effective in China.

 

[lovetravellingoz]

EXPERT COMMENTARY: ‘D614G’ mutation of SARS-CoV-2, the virus that causes COVID-19 - CSIRO

www.csiro.au

12 May

Does the D614G strain cause more severe disease?


Professor Seshadri Vasan, head of CSIRO's Dangerous Pathogens Team testing COVID-19 vaccine candidates at the Australian Centre for Disease Preparedness in Geelong, said:

"Even if a particular strain may be more transmissible, it does not mean it will cause a more severe form of disease. In fact, the authors of this pre-print have themselves said 'there was no significant correlation found between D614G status and hospitalisation status'.

"This virus is still adapting to its new human host. It is expected that, over time, different dominant strains will appear in different parts of the world. This is especially true where movement around the world is restricted.

"This should not cause undue alarm. While it is normal and anticipated for RNA viruses to mutate, the SARS-CoV-2 virus has a 'proof-reading' mechanism which limits the rate at which it can mutate.

"More research is required before we can separate out host and environmental factors to draw firm conclusions from this limited data.”





Will this mutation affect the vaccines or diagnostics being developed?
Professor Seshadri Vasan, CSIRO Dangerous Pathogens Team Leader, said:

"Based on what we know at this point, we do not believe that this poses serious concerns about vaccine development, unlike what we see in seasonal influenza where we need to tweak the vaccine each year for Northern and Southern Hemispheres. However, many vaccines for COVID-19 target the spike region so we will keep a close watch on this and other mutations."

"CSIRO is planning experiments to confirm whether the D614G mutation will impact antibody responses to the CEPI-funded vaccines (Oxford and Inovio) under evaluation at CSIRO's Australian Centre for Disease Preparedness."

"CSIRO will continue to monitor the national and global situation regarding the genetic evolution of SARS CoV-2, as it is inevitable that other mutations will be identified and reported."



Is this strain circulating in Australia?


Associate Professor Denis Bauer, Transformational Bioinformatics Team Leader at CSIRO's Australian e-Health Research Centre, said:

"We have been monitoring whether Australia will be affected by the D614G change in the spike protein caused by a single base mutation A to G at location 23403.

"In Australia it currently seems to be less frequent than the world average, appearing in only 50 per cent of the surveyed sequences (in 717 high quality isolates out of the total 1300 Australian isolates, 3rd May).

"This mutation is present in roughly two third of all global strains but only represents half of all Australian strains. NSW and QLD show the lowest rate of the mutation (representing one-thirds of all strains) while VIC and WA more closely resemble the international distribution. NT is split down the middle, while there was no data for Tasmania or South Australia."

"However, this ratio might change in the future as the D614G strain is only one of currently 10 strains circulating, with no clear evidence on clinical outcomes for any strain so far. Mutations are a normal part of a virus’ evolution and do not necessarily have an impact on the severity of disease."

 

[TheRealTMA]

Sure, the Velociraptors Are Still On the Loose, But That’s No Reason Not to Reopen Jurassic Park

“Trump is shrugging off warnings by scientists that the easing restrictions taking place across the country could cause tens of thousands of death...

www.mcsweeneys.net

 

[TheRealTMA]

Some go further.This by a statistician.

There Is No Evidence Lockdowns Saved Lives. It Is Indisputable They Caused Great Harm

Also see this important update: Bad Arguments For Lockdowns & The Burden Of Proof. Also: US States Analysis. The US has a little more than 4% of the world population. Yet, throughout the end o…

wmbriggs.com

I don’t agree that lockdowns have not signicatly reduced the spread of Coronavirus.

Not really a good peer-reviewed source I suggest.

Actually Briggs calls himself ”Numerologist to the Stars”. The Heartland Institute is just another alt-right “freedom institute” pushing cognitive dissonance to support Trump and the anti-climate change loons and were instrumental in Trump’s state of the nation to cut every possible environmental protection, promote oil industry and argue for Americans having access to non-regulated pharmaceuticals.

We deserve better primary source material if you wish to run the lockdown is not useful debate I would suggest.

While not peer reviewed studies, these would appear to me to be a better analysis of the lockdown issue.

Vital Signs: The evidence that lockdowns work may not be gold standard, but it’s good

In a crisis, there’s no time to get perfect evidence. The evidence that lockdowns contain contagion and boost subsequent economic growth is persuasive.

theconversation.com

Lockdowns save lives. The evidence is clear around the world.

Overwhelming evidence suggests that lockdowns help contain coronavirus outbreaks and prevent additional deaths.

www.businessinsider.com.au

 

[drron]

Well those studies also show no proof.As i said you can certainly say Closing borders works and the evidence from Taiwan and South Korea suggest that is the major reason for an effect.Both insisted on mask wearing and prompt testing of contacts and symptomatic people.
Taiwan didn't close offices,cafes etc and schools whilst South Korea had targeted lockdowns where there were clusters.And they have done better than us.

And evidence that there were more cases than modelling suggested just isn't scientific but mere speculation.

More about schools.from the NSW Health Dept.

Overview
• This report provides an overview of investigation into all COVID-19 cases in New South Wales (NSW) schools.
• In NSW, from March to mid-April 2020, 18 individuals (9 students and 9 staff) from 15 schools were confirmed as COVID-19 cases; all of these individuals had an opportunity to transmit the COVID-19 virus (SARS-CoV-2) to others in their schools.
• 735 students and 128 staff were close contacts of these initial 18 cases.
• No teacher or staff member contracted COVID-19 from any of the initial school cases.
• One child from a primary school and one child from a high school may have contracted COVID-19 from the initial cases at their schools.

May be found by googling-
COVID-19 in schools – the experience in NSW

 

[lovetravellingoz]

Lockdowns?

What we 100% know works is to limit transmission of the virus by physical (social) distancing.

• But we cannot have everyone at all times more than 1.5m (or more) apart from all other people.
• It is also not the only mode of transmission

Fomite (surfaces) transmission also occurs. So you also need to:

• Not go (or limit) where another person has been
• And if you cannot do that wash your hands and/or wear gloves (though gloves will still infect you if you touch your face.
• Disinfect surfaces where possible. Particularly high contact surfaces.

Direct droplet and aerosol transmission can also occur.

• If many people are infected and thus spreading then facemasks may assist in stopping others from being infected from inhaling droplets and also from created fomite transmission opportunities. Health workers should wear facemasks and also eyemasks or faceshilds.
• Aerosol transmission less likely, but in some settings where close contact of people with severe settings occurs, then it can occur. PPE masks that can screen aersolised virus particles is vital and special HVAC including negative pressure rooms is preferred. In crowded wards negative pressure PPE suits is preferred.

We know the virus spread can be controlled by limiting the movement and mixing of people.

• The more that people mix, then the more opportunity there is for Covid 19 to spread. Covid 19 is known to be very contagious, though not as contagious as viruses where true aersol transmission readily occurs.
• Duration is known to be important. Being in close proximity with an infected person for 2 or more hours in particular. Though it may be a lot briefer than that.
• Border controls work well if one region/country is infected and the other not (or has much lower rates of infection). Having border controls in place between two regions when there are no, or very few infections, is unnecessary.
• Ditto on lockdowns. If you have low or no infections then they are unnecessary. But if Covid 19 is out and about at a high level then they can if done well be a tool to lower the transmission rate. To get things back under control so that the tools mentioned above can work. Lockdowns are basically just strict enforcing of the above tools. How strictly you lockdown will depend on many variables including population density, whether one has public transport, % of infections etc.

There are lockdowns and lockdowns.

• Wuhan and New York are both examples of how a lockdown can be used to get things back under control again.
• Wuhan was a lot stricter than NY, and came in quicker. Without the lockdown in Wuhan what would have happened to the other 1.3 billion in China?
• In NY the virus was more out of control before lockdown, and had aspects such as the subway still be used and also was the subways not being disinfected daily till very recently
• Now hindsight can be a wonderful thing too. In NZ they went into lockdown quite strictly very early. Looking now we can see that they did not need to do this and could have been milder such as in Australia which has achieved per capita a similar case and mortality rate. At the time the Kiwis made their call little was known and so while it easy to say now that they went to hard too early that was not known at the time. Certainly when you look at all the early epidemiological modelling in most countries how effective physical (distancing) would be was grossly underestimated. I am not critical of the epidemiologists nor the Kiwis as this was mainly new ground.
• The UK. Where they really locking down?
  • With their international borders wide open I do not believe that they were in true lockdown as they still had mixing with infected people.
  • Add to that failures in being able to test enough, and to have enough PPE then you have the mess that is the UK.

So my belief is that lockdowns do work if you are in the situation of truly needing one, and you then execute it well. And an overkill if you do not.


PS The earlier one acts in all control measures (if required), the better the results

 

[drron]

I am glad you are so definite in your beliefs lovetravellingoz but the real world is a lot different and there are usually more than 1 way of getting a good result.
I see very little evidence that closing schools for example has reduced spread.
And Victoria stopping people from just walking,playing golf or going fishing is not scientifically based.The CMO did acknowledge that in a recent interview.

And what you are not taking into account is the threat to health that lockdowns cause.Estimated there could be 750-1500 extra suicides a year over the next 5 years-and that usually means a much younger demographic than Covid deaths.

Quite frankly I think we should be able to put on some death certificates under the heading-Any other Condition contributing to death-Covid fear.