JQ25 MEL - CNS warning....

[JohnPhelan]

The reason JQ has "systemic" cancellations is the same reason that QF has "systemic" downgrades from A380 to B747 aircraft: the QF and JQ fleets are often - especially at school holiday time - being worked at the absolute edge of their capacity. There are no spare aircraft sitting around to cover when something happens - such as the JQ Japan incident, or the Nancy-Bird truck incident in LAX a couple of weeks ago.

With certain exceptions (such as aircraft sitting on the ground for the day in LAX or NRT), the turnaround times are tight - so if an aircraft goes tech, or is subject to a weather or maintenance delay anywhere, it throws the whole system out of whack. There is no 'recovery time' built into the schedules.

What really concerns me is what will happen when the B747 fleet is gone - at the moment, the 747s are used repeatedly to rescue QF when things go pear-shaped. My solution: QF should probably keep 2 of the 747s in reserve for a couple of years after their official retirement. (Apart from anything else, this will also allow the Antarctica charters to continue; Croydon Travel are struggling to find a way to make these work post-747 as they tried the A380s for one year and it was hopeless; the seating config in J also rules out the 787 and probably also the Project Sunrise aircraft.)

 

[Quickstatus]

Having 1-2 spare sitting around requires all the associated infrastructure /pilots / crew and Sim to be sitting around. It’s too expensive.

Rather than just having spare, an EU261 might shift some of the liability of a D&C that is carried by the passenger back onto the airline and maybe in the medium term cause them to structure their fleet and timetable with some of that liability in mind.

If the media requires proof or evidence before picking up a story nothing of note would get published.

As I said upthread, on the day in question the entire JQ787 fleet was operation and on or near to schedule except they could not operate JQ25 tag MEL-CNS. There were no aircraft spare , none late, and all aircraft were accounted for. All the ex MEL international JQ787 flights departed that day as well. So the cancellation of the tag was because there was no aircraft to operate . But for the tag flight which operates twice a week, @timmy-t would not find himself stranded and this thread would not exist allowing people to have a little bit of insight into this issue of maximal fleet utilisation and perhaps overutilisation.

The cancellation of a tag flight usually implies that the main sector (in this case CNS-KIX) would also be cancelled but JQ had an aircraft in CNS to do that flight. So why sell tickets on that tag flight?

 

[Melburnian1]

...What really concerns me is what will happen when the B747 fleet is gone - at the moment, the 747s are used repeatedly to rescue QF when things go pear-shaped. My solution: QF should probably keep 2 of the 747s in reserve for a couple of years after their official retirement. (Apart from anything else, this will also allow the Antarctica charters to continue; Croydon Travel are struggling to find a way to make these work post-747 as they tried the A380s for one year and it was hopeless; the seating config in J also rules out the 787 and probably also the Project Sunrise aircraft.)

These are excellent, informative points. You said a long time ago in a comment I vividly recall (almost as famous as your explanation as to why passengers present late at the door of an aircraft - they're at the JohnPhelan "barrrrrr!!") - when the QF B747 fleet was larger that at that time it ought retain two instead of scrapping them, and subsequent events proved you correct.

I wonder could you start a new thread about Antarctica flights and revisit what you've said above?

Many would find your suggestion that the A388s were "hopeless" interesting, and you could give an explanation as to why. Seating configuration as you imply for the other long distance aircraft, or that plus additional reasons?

But new thread please so it can be more easily accessed.

 

[Melburnian1]

No YOU don't get it. You don't understand the media (I do) and you don't understand what gets readers.. this doesn't.

You make assumptions that it's only you who's ever worked in or extensively dealt with the media.

 

[nlagalle]

You make assumptions that it's only you who's ever worked in or extensively dealt with the media.

Ok state your experience working in the media..

 

[nlagalle]

As I said upthread, on the day in question the entire JQ787 fleet was operation and on or near to schedule except they could not operate JQ25 tag MEL-CNS. There were no aircraft spare , none late, and all aircraft were accounted for. All the ex MEL international JQ787 flights departed that day as well. So the cancellation of the tag was because there was no aircraft to operate . But for the tag flight which operates twice a week, @timmy-t would not find himself stranded and this thread would not exist allowing people to have a little bit of insight into this issue of maximal fleet utilisation and perhaps overutilisation.

It’s not just aircraft, it’s crewing, maintenance and plenty of other factors.. you don’t know if something further afield has anything to do with it. You are simply looking at that moment in time and drawing the straw it’s over use of available aircraft.

 

[Melburnian1]

It’s not just aircraft, it’s crewing, maintenance and plenty of other factors.. you don’t know if something further afield has anything to do with it. You are simply looking at that moment in time and drawing the straw it’s over use of available aircraft.

Quickstatus is giving an evidence-based answer to prove a point.

In contrast, you are shifting the goalposts.

 

[moa999]

As I said upthread, on the day in question the entire JQ787 fleet was operation and on or near to schedule except they could not operate JQ25 tag MEL-CNS.

On the day in question (Sat 29 June)
VKI was an hour late inbound to CNS as JQ26
There was also significant wind at SYD with a number (at least 2 QF and 1 VA aircraft diverted to other airports)

 

[nlagalle]

Quickstatus is giving an evidence-based answer to prove a point.

In contrast, you are shifting the goalposts.

Haven’t shifted any goalposts. There is no evidence based answers given. Just plenty of conjecture.

 

[Quickstatus]

[/QUOTE]

On the day in question (Sat 29 June)
VKI was an hour late inbound to CNS as JQ26
There was also significant wind at SYD with a number (at least 2 QF and 1 VA aircraft diverted to other airports)

@moa999 ,
I believe the date in question was Friday 28 June. The cancelled JQ25 was also Friday 28 June:

 

[Quickstatus]

It’s not just aircraft, it’s crewing, maintenance and plenty of other factors.. you don’t know if something further afield has anything to do with it. You are simply looking at that moment in time and drawing the straw it’s over use of available aircraft.

It doesnt really matter because there was no 787 sitting around with no flight to operate on that day. All the 787 in MEL that day operated flights ex MEL. There was one flight JQ25 which didn't have an airframe allocated to it.

 

[nlagalle]

It doesnt really matter because there was no 787 sitting around with no flight to operate on that day. All the 787 in MEL that day operated flights ex MEL. There was one flight JQ25 which didn't have an airframe allocated to it.

Given this was a 6am flight, what was delayed the day before that had an aircraft out of position??? You keep talking about that day but what about the day prior?

 

[Quickstatus]

No aircraft was out of position

 

[nlagalle]

No aircraft was out of position

And you know that how? You have access to their aircraft management system?

 

[fall502]

When I first became a QFF Plat I booked a a JQ international flight from Mel to Syd travelling with my wife and was eagerly looking to my first First Lounge experience. While queuing at check in found out the flight was cancelled and was put a domestic flight. Very very disappointed.

 

[MEL_Traveller]

So what’s the pattern then?? No one has actually said what it is.. or is it just “the vibe”??

The pattern seems to be this... once a week an international 787 flight is cancelled. The cancellation rotates through the destinations of BKK, HKT, SIN or DPS. The cancellations appear to affect each of these routes in turn. The same route is rarely, if ever, impacted by back-to-back cancellations. The charter flight (travel agency arranged) to China is never cancelled.

Like clockwork, if the flight to SIN is cancelled this week, it will fly as scheduled for the next couple of weeks. And the same for the other destinations.

This could all be coincidence. But once I book a JQ flight I monitor it and other international JQ flights in the months and weeks leading up to my departure. It's getting to the point where I could almost predict if my flight is going to be cancelled.

 

[nlagalle]

The pattern seems to be this... once a week an international 787 flight is cancelled. The cancellation rotates through the destinations of BKK, HKT, SIN or DPS. The cancellations appear to affect each of these routes in turn. The same route is rarely, if ever, impacted by back-to-back cancellations.

So the only thing you have is one flight a week is cancelled.. and you somehow draw the conclusion that they are systematically cancelling flights? You’ve gotta do better than that.

 

[Melburnian1]

So the only thing you have is one flight a week is cancelled.. and you somehow draw the conclusion that they are systematically cancelling flights? You’ve gotta do better than that.

You asked for a "pattern." One was given by MEL_Traveller. Now you question that.

 

[nlagalle]

You asked for a "pattern." One was given by MEL_Traveller. Now you question that.

No pattern was given.. just ramblings that don’t correlate to anything. A flight get cancelled a week. Wow..

Still waiting on your media experience... or did you forget that?

 

[zenyattamondatta]

The pattern seems to be this... once a week an international 787 flight is cancelled. The cancellation rotates through the destinations of BKK, HKT, SIN or DPS. The cancellations appear to affect each of these routes in turn. The same route is rarely, if ever, impacted by back-to-back cancellations. The charter flight (travel agency arranged) to China is never cancelled.

Like clockwork, if the flight to SIN is cancelled this week, it will fly as scheduled for the next couple of weeks. And the same for the other destinations.

This could all be coincidence. But once I book a JQ flight I monitor it and other international JQ flights in the months and weeks leading up to my departure. It's getting to the point where I could almost predict if my flight is going to be cancelled.

What’s with this “seems” nonsense? Are you actually able to document it?