Malaysian Airlines MH17 Crashes in Ukraine

[straitman]

Anyone else see the irony in the Der Spiegel report that the Airline which has had most flights over Ukraine in recent times was Aeroflot. You would have thought the Russian's might have told their own airline that "oh by the way, we are arming the rebels with SAM's and you might want to take a different route".

SQ second most flights but there are a large number on the list.

I have attached the list of flights (as published) for the previous 7 days.

bad luck? we need to know more about who knew what. MH made the decision to be there at that time. we don't know what they knew about the risk.

As did 37 other airlines.

CNN discussing the use of transponders on aircraft - of which the MH flight should have been transponding that it was commercial. If the aircraft was stating it was civilian this should have been known to those firing the missile. Supposedly the black box will be able to show if the airline was stating it was civilian.

Civilian Transponders do not have the availability of Military codes whereas Military aircraft can squawk Civilian codes.

I think the point being made is that other airlines were also flying through the same airspace - in fact there seems to be no concrete evidence that any airline was actively avoiding that area. More specifically, an SQ plane and an AI plane were in close proximity to the stricken MH plane when the incident occurred. As such it seems fair to say it was just bad luck the MH plane that got hit, rather than one of the other planes flying nearby. Unless you think they specifically targeted MH?

As shown below many flights by many airlines including US airlines. As average of approx one flight every 11.7 minutes.

[TABLE="width: 195"]
[TR]
[TD]Aeroflot[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD="align: right"]86[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Singapore[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD="align: right"]75[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Ukraine Int[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD="align: right"]62[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Lufthansa[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD="align: right"]56[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Malaysia[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD="align: right"]48[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Belavia[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD="align: right"]46[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Thai[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD="align: right"]34[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Air India[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD="align: right"]33[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Pakistan Int[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD="align: right"]33[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Jet Airways[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD="align: right"]31[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Yamal[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD="align: right"]31[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Etihad[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD="align: right"]26[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Transaero[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD="align: right"]24[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]KLM (Asia)[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD="align: right"]24[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Austrian[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD="align: right"]24[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Emirates[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD="align: right"]23[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="colspan: 2"]Turkmenistan[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]17[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]EVA[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD="align: right"]16[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Air Astana[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD="align: right"]15[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Uzbekistan[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD="align: right"]15[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Ural[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD="align: right"]14[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Azerbaijan[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD="align: right"]13[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Dniproavia[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD="align: right"]12[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Air Baltic[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD="align: right"]12[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Orenair[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD="align: right"]12[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="colspan: 2"]Lufthansa Cargo[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]9[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Czech[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD="align: right"]8[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="colspan: 2"]Deutsche Luftwaffe[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]7[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Private[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD="align: right"]6[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Rosslya[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD="align: right"]6[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Air Arabia[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD="align: right"]6[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]FlyDubai[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD="align: right"]6[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Bangladesh[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD="align: right"]5[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Aegean[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD="align: right"]5[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]VIM[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD="align: right"]5[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]AetoLogic[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD="align: right"]5[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]United[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD="align: right"]5[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]FedEx[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD="align: right"]5[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD][/TD]
[TD="align: right"][/TD]
[TD="align: right"]860[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD="align: right"]122.85 per day.[/TD]
[/TR]
[/TABLE]

 

[Foreigner]

I just wonder whether Ukraine itself inflicted the strike on MH17. It had protracted conflict with Russia and whilst it had sympathy from the West, there was no end in sight. Could the strike have been perpetrated to bring the conflict to the fore?

 

[burmans]

I just wonder whether Ukraine itself inflicted the strike on MH17. It had protracted conflict with Russia and whilst it had sympathy from the West, there was no end in sight. Could the strike have been perpetrated to bring the conflict to the fore?

Yes, it could have, but the fact that the rebels commander tweeted that they had shot it down probably a bit of a giveaway that it was indeed them.

 

[boomy]

Some would call this a very negative view but I frankly think it's supported by the facts. We are only shocked when we think it could be us, I.e. It affects Australians or people like us, otherwise we don't really seem to care that much.

It's not negative view at all, it's common sense. Tragedies happen all the time in different parts of the world, a lot of them are not even mentioned in the local news.
Most people only care about events that are relevant to them, it's human nature. That's why a plane crash will gather more headlines then a mudslide that wiped out a village in rural China or a war in the Middle East (where no Aussie soldiers are involved).

 

[Foreigner]

I have attached the list of flights (as published) for the previous 7 days.

As did 37 other airlines.

As shown below many flights by many airlines including US airlines. As average of approx one flight every 11.7 minutes.

Heck, some top tier operators (SQ, LH, Etihad, Emirates, UA) there.

 

[artemis]

Personally I take a much more cynical view, just watching SBS, 267 civilians killed in Gaza today. But they aren't Australian, they aren't white, and they aren't Christians ( though ironically based on census figures neither are we) so we really don't care much. I think we have a very selfish view on what's a disaster.

Some would call this a very negative view but I frankly think it's supported by the facts. We are only shocked when we think it could be us, I.e. It affects Australians or people like us, otherwise we don't really seem to care that much.

I don't think it's because they were white or Christian that we care about MH17, I think it's because, as others have said, that you can reasonably expect to be shot at in Gaza, whereas on a commercial passenger jet in an approved airspace you might think that you are safe. To date, I'm not sure that killing civilians has been part of the modus operandi of this crisis in Ukraine, as opposed to the actions in Gaza/Syria.

And I would like to think that airlines would take into account facts like the recent shooting down of two other aircraft in nearby airspace before planning their routes...

As for identification codes - not being an artilleryman, I'm going to wager that it's pretty obvious on radar codes which are civilian and which are military. And given the cost of each missile, if I was running the conflict I'd want to make sure the clowns with the trigger shot only the intended targets. So I think they deliberately targeted a civilian aircraft... I don't think this was an ooopsie!

 

[drron]

And of the ones that say they had diverted most would not have been flying that route anyway EG QF and CX.
So only BA.Though you need to see what their previous flight path was-if to the south then over Crimea which was declared a prohibited zone.

 

[burmans]

And I would like to think that airlines would take into account facts like the recent shooting down of two other aircraft in nearby airspace before planning their routes...

As for identification codes - not being an artilleryman, I'm going to wager that it's pretty obvious on radar codes which are civilian and which are military. And given the cost of each missile, if I was running the conflict I'd want to make sure the clowns with the trigger shot only the intended targets. So I think they deliberately targeted a civilian aircraft... I don't think this was an ooopsie!

You might like to think so but aside from a small group who did avoid ( avoiding those like QF or Delta who were never going to fly there anyway) the airlines clearly didn't agree with you and they are the professionals.

On your other point, think what you want, the twitter post clearly indicate they thought it was a Ukranian aircraft.

 

[ozbeachbabe]

So I think they deliberately targeted a civilian aircraft... I don't think this was an ooopsie!

Looking at the voice transcripts I think there's too much evidence that contradicts that theory such as "where are the pilots" (no mention of passengers), "are there any weapons" etc etc definitely suggests that they were expecting the target to be military not civilian plus the expletive when told about the finding bodies of women and children.

Also due the the thunderstorm activity in the area MH diverted north of their flight path so quite possibly it was over an area not normally used by commercial aircraft.

 

[medhead]

The thing about risk and people's reaction to accidents - IMO it is all about knowledge/familiarity and frequency of the accident. People are extremely familiar with car accidents, they happen every day. There are been 49 deaths on South Australian roads so far this year, so upto 49 incidents. 1 every 3 to 5 days. As such people just accept it. But when you compare road accident risk with radiation risk, they just don't believe radiation 1/100th* of the risk of death from car accidents. I think it's because people just have no idea about radiation, they get no information about radiation, they don't encounter it much = they get worried. I think the same with airline accidents, they are so rare people get shocked.

Then we have the current Gaza situation that seems to be all about reporting. Just this last week there was the report for the first Israeli to have been killed in the current flare up around Gaza. Then the next day, as a small aside I heard that 200 Palestinians had been killed so far. No one should die in such conflicts, but the difference in reporting was stark. I think that also sets people's reactions.


* for typical unavoidable annual radiation to which everyone is exposed.

 

[medhead]

And given the cost of each missile, if I was running the conflict I'd want to make sure the clowns with the trigger shot only the intended targets. So I think they deliberately targeted a civilian aircraft... I don't think this was an ooopsie!

Missiles are cheap. That's the point of them.

 

[burmans]

Looking at the voice transcripts I think there's too much evidence that contradicts that theory such as "where are the pilots" (no mention of passengers), "are there any weapons" etc etc definitely suggests that they were expecting the target to be military not civilian plus the expletive when told about the finding bodies of women and children.

Also due the the thunderstorm activity in the area MH diverted north of their flight path so quite possibly it was over an area not normally used by commercial aircraft.

Well as recent Australian events would suggest some don't really concern themself much with evidence!

 

[burmans]

It's not negative view at all, it's common sense. Tragedies happen all the time in different parts of the world, a lot of them are not even mentioned in the local news.
Most people only care about events that are relevant to them, it's human nature. That's why a plane crash will gather more headlines then a mudslide that wiped out a village in rural China or a war in the Middle East (where no Aussie soldiers are involved).

Yes, hard to disagree really.

So in essence you are saying we don't really find this shocking (if we care at all), we are just shocked it could happen to "people like us".

 

[artemis]

Missiles are cheap. That's the point of them.

cheap?

if war was cheap, well... we wouldn't do it!

i think each missile is about $250k? the whole set up tens of millions? (it's been a long while since my subscription to Jane's expired). Not to mention one-use-only, so you'd want to pick your targets well if you were expecting to be shooting at a sortie of fighter jets...

 

[boomy]

cheap?

if war was cheap, well... we wouldn't do it!

i think each missile is about $250k? the whole set up tens of millions? (it's been a long while since my subscription to Jane's expired). Not to mention one-use-only, so you'd want to pick your targets well if you were expecting to be shooting at a sortie of fighter jets...

It's all relative. For example, each missile Hamas shoots towards Israel costs ~$800 compared to ~$20,000 each Iron Done missile the IDF shoots intercept to them costs. Off course it's small change to the big players who finance both sides - Iran and USA.
Same goes for the Russian made missiles the rebels use. It's a small cost for Russia to use mercenaries sponsored by their own made weapons to fight the civil war in Ukraine.

 

[medhead]

cheap?

if war was cheap, well... we wouldn't do it!

i think each missile is about $250k? the whole set up tens of millions? (it's been a long while since my subscription to Jane's expired). Not to mention one-use-only, so you'd want to pick your targets well if you were expecting to be shooting at a sortie of fighter jets...

The missile is designed to shoot at aircraft travelling at altitude such as B52s and also low altitude such as A10s and such, which cost much more than a missile. The alternative to using a missile to bring down those targets is other fighter aircraft. How much do they cost? vastly more than one missile or even the missile platform. As I said missiles are cheap, that's the point. Those guys now have completely empty airspace, which is very important to have in war, for a fraction of the cost of an airforce.

 

[NFF]

Anyone can claim to be whoever they want to be, whether it's rebel or pro-russia or pro-west. It's hard to verify.

'It is a capital mistake to theorise before one has sufficient data. Insensibly one begins to twist facts to suit theories, instead of theories to suit facts.' - Sherlock Holmes.

 

[burmans]

Anyone can claim to be whoever they want to be, whether it's rebel or pro-russia or pro-west. It's hard to verify.

'It is a capital mistake to theorise before one has sufficient data. Insensibly one begins to twist facts to suit theories, instead of theories to suit facts.' - Sherlock Holmes.

Nice quote but exactly what are you responding to by stating this. While there is certainly some lack of information in such regions, plenty have made their intent and actions quite clear too! This sounds a bit like a sound-bite to me. What exactly are you suggesting is theory rather than fact?

 

[NFF]

Like I said earlier, both sides are blaming each other. Truth is the first casualty.

 

[Sprucegoose]

Just heard the terrible news that a dear friend of mine and her husband were on the flight. She was a truly good person - not in a church/religious sort of way. But kind and never malicious in what she said or did. Always interested in people and with a joy in life. She had always travelled on her own but her husband had retired recently and they had started doing trips together. She has two wonderful, successful daughters who she adored. She and her husband wiped out by a thug with a gun - when will we change and become less savage.

Yes we sympathise. Justice is never justice