Malaysian Airlines MH17 Crashes in Ukraine

[Jack_OC]

bad luck? we need to know more about who knew what. MH made the decision to be there at that time. we don't know what they knew about the risk.

I think the point being made is that other airlines were also flying through the same airspace - in fact there seems to be no concrete evidence that any airline was actively avoiding that area. More specifically, an SQ plane and an AI plane were in close proximity to the stricken MH plane when the incident occurred. As such it seems fair to say it was just bad luck the MH plane that got hit, rather than one of the other planes flying nearby. Unless you think they specifically targeted MH?

 

[MEL_Traveller]

I think the point being made is that other airlines were also flying through the same airspace - in fact there seems to be no concrete evidence that any airline was actively avoiding that area. More specifically, an SQ plane and an AI plane were in close proximity to the stricken MH plane when the incident occurred. As such it seems fair to say it was just bad luck the MH plane that got hit, rather than one of the other planes flying nearby. Unless you think they specifically targeted MH?

No. Just because others were doing it doesn't mean that you should also be doing it. If five cars in front of you decide to drive over a flooded bridge - it is up to you, the driver of your car, to make your own assessment about whether or not it is safe for you to also do that. I think a lot will come down to who knew what about the theft of the missiles.

 

[burmans]

Fair call. I wonder who will get blamed for providing the weapons, it could be either the Russians or the Ukrainian (which their anti-air military base was seized last month)......

Sorry, are you suggesting it was the Ukranians fault by letting their anti-ar miltary base get taken over, that would be somewhat stretching my definition of blame!

 

[ozbeachbabe]

I just hope the crash site is secured as the footage seems to show people getting free reign to crucial evidence such as pieces of the aircraft and travel documentts and other personal belongings from the people on board.

They seem to have settled back to the 27 number with suggestions that the 23 number was out of date information.

There were suggestions that there could be more Australians onboard due to people holding dual citizenship of Australia and another country however as they were flying ex Europe to Australia (assuming they were not stopping over in Asia) the checkin agent would've swiped their Australian passport as that it the document the passenger would be entering Australia on.

Even if someone was to hand over their EU passport in error as there would be no Australian visa in that document the CSA would ask them if they had an Australian Passport as well & swipe that one.

It is possible however that if an Australian was stopping over in KUL they could've handed their EU passport to the checkin agent if they planned to enter Malaysia on that passport so they would not appear on the flight manifest as an Australian Citizen hence the actual figure could be higher.

 

[Princess Fiona]

I have no words....
RIP all onboard

 

[burmans]

This sort of thing I would say is foreseeable, it shouldn't need a Govt authority to issue a diversion. Think about when driving and you come to a flooded road, you might assess and drive through but you do that every time not just plough into it because there is no stop and go man telling you it's dangerous. However, those fools who do plough though could be employed by an airline, they are employed by someone.

Matt

Ah hindsight always brings out those who suggests things are foreseeable. Sure the conflict is known but equally there are plenty of people in conflict with Russia itself, should we avoid flying over Russia?.

Where do you stop, we have had (reputedly) credible threats to flights in US and the UK, should we avoid flying there too? There are plenty of places where there might be terrorist threat and hence there is some risk. Do we avoid all of these?

 

[jlien]

MH has just released their 2nd statement.

http://www.malaysiaairlines.com/my/en/site/mh17.html

Updated the number of passengers to 298 (including 3 infants )

 

[MEL_Traveller]

Ah hindsight always brings out those who suggests things are foreseeable. Sure the conflict is known but equally there are plenty of people in conflict with Russia itself, should we avoid flying over Russia?.

Where do you stop, we have had (reputedly) credible threats to flights in US and the UK, should we avoid flying there too? There are plenty of places where there might be terrorist threat and hence there is some risk. Do we avoid all of these?

A complicating factor here is the missile availability. Weapons of that type have not normally be a factor, and a jet flying at high altitude would be safe from being a target.

but the missiles are a game changer in the risk assessment. again, it comes down to who knew what, and what steps were taken to assess the risk.

there is nothing we can do now to reverse this tragedy. But we can learn lessons going forward, and hope to prevent it happening again. Even if that means more caution in future.

As to the threats agains US/UK flights... that is, unfortunately, a decision each individual passenger needs to make. We have the knowledge, and must individually choose how to deal with that.

 

[Jack_OC]

No. Just because others were doing it doesn't mean that you should also be doing it. If five cars in front of you decide to drive over a flooded bridge - it is up to you, the driver of your car, to make your own assessment about whether or not it is safe for you to also do that. I think a lot will come down to who knew what about the theft of the missiles.

I totally agree that everyone has to make their own assessment. But if many cars drive over the same flooded bridge routinely for a prolonged period of time, and then eventually the bridge collapses with one car on it, it would be fair to say that the driver of that car was unlucky relative to all of the other drivers. I think that's all people are saying. That's certainly all I'm saying.

BTW, looks like at least one airline did choose to avoid Ukraine entirely - from The Age:

A Qantas spokeswoman told our reporter Eryk Bagshaw its Dubai to London route flies 740 kilometers south of the flight path that MH17 was shot down in.

The spokeswoman said the Dubai-London flight used to fly over the same route as MH17, but Qantas made a precautionary decision some months ago to no longer fly over the area.
The spokeswoman was unable to comment on whether other One-World flight partners have continued to use the route.

I was a bit baffled by the last line. I don't want to be crass, but I think it's pretty clear that not all of their OW partners made the same decision. Anyway, this confirmation makes me question the logic of the other airlines a bit more. Surely they all had the same information?

 

[_TheTraveller_]

Sorry, are you suggesting it was the Ukranians fault by letting their anti-ar miltary base get taken over, that would be somewhat stretching my definition of blame!

Well the blame game has already started. What I think doesn't matter, what people with authority think matter. Example: John McCain has spoken as if the Russians orchestrated the attack. The Ukrainians are blaming Russians and the Russians are blaming the Ukrainians. My concerns are the fallout in terms of international relations and airspace above other areas which are considered contested. Its even more concerning that the rebels have such weapons in their hands which makes me wonder what else they have.

From the discussion here, the general consensus seems to be that the risk assessment done by MAS was poor and they should have avoided the area like the other airlines.

In the end, its a sad day. Lives have been lost. The general public may not want to blame anyone yet but when you have an ongoing conflict and the parties within the conflict start blaming thats when the situation can get out of hand and we need to prevent that.

As a question for you, if its been found that the Russians have supplied the SAMs who's going to be blamed and what actions will be taken against Russia? The same situation can be applied to Ukraine.

 

[prozac]

Terrible tragedy. My heartfelt thoughts to all who are connected to this event.

Toll now upgraded to 298 incl. 27 Australians and 155 Dutch.

Interesting the US FAA forbade in April any US airline to travers the region.

My wife and I flew this MH flight last October and the corresponding flight to AMS in September. Quite a sobering thought for us when we heard the news in the early hours this morning. I hope we do not have any AFF members on-board.

 

[under the radar]

for as long as the human race exists, 'events' will keep happening...this is the 'scar' the human race will leave on this planet.. PEACE IS JUST A WORD IN A DICTIONARY...WE WILL NEVER LEARN

 

[samh004]

Woah, just saw/heard the supposed phone call from the rebels to the Russians and sounds like at the end of all this, Russia isn't going to come out looking very good.

 

[Limewood]

To wake up to this today is just so awful to think these low life coughs would do this to others is beyond belief, a very sad day indeed.

 

[vetrade]

"All that is necessary for the triumph of evil is that good men and Barack Obama do nothing"

I understand that intercepts indicate Russian separatists shot down the plane.................

The real problem here is that Putin was so confident that Obama was a "cough" that he invaded Ukraine under the improbable guise of protecting Russian citizens. His confidence was well founded because Obama's limp-wristed response was to cancel a few visas and freeze a few bank accounts which just proved he didn't have the testes for the job. As if Putin cared about "diplomacy"! The loss of this plane can, and should only be, sheeted back to Putin, the macho aggressor, who put in train all the events which lead to it being shot down.

The problem for the civilised parts of the world (like us) is that the world no longer has an effective policeman that belligerent types take seriously, and I fear that we will see an increase of such incidents as long as that situation prevails.

 

[_TheTraveller_]

Woah, just saw/heard the supposed phone call from the rebels to the Russians and sounds like at the end of all this, Russia isn't going to come out looking very good.

I believe it was Russian separatists leaders. There's also news that the separatists may have taken the black boxes so lets hope that they'll at least give it to the Russians and the Russians should pass it on to the investigation group.

 

[knasty]

We all hoped the next MH news would about finding 370. This is terrible.

 

[ozbeachbabe]

Ch9 Today Show reporting transcripts from supposed Russian Militants talking about the crash:

On TV they say like it is a Ukrainian AN-26, a transport plane. But the writing says 'Malaysian Airlines'. What was it doing over the territory of Ukraine?

To which another responded:

Well then it was bringing spies. Why the hell were they flying? This is war going on.

The above conversations suggest that the rebels:

a) did not appear to have any idea that commercial aircraft fly over the Ukraine
b) can't differentiate that aircraft flying over the Ukraine (particularly at 30,000 feet plus) ie AMS to KUL does not mean they are landing there & "bringing spies"

 

[UP4014]

Ah hindsight always brings out those who suggests things are foreseeable. Sure the conflict is known but equally there are plenty of people in conflict with Russia itself, should we avoid flying over Russia?.

Where do you stop, we have had (reputedly) credible threats to flights in US and the UK, should we avoid flying there too? There are plenty of places where there might be terrorist threat and hence there is some risk. Do we avoid all of these?

As stated elsewhere, QF made the decision not to fly in the area months ago. An area of conflict with missiles with each side backed by a Govt? this was foreseeable.

It's called managing the risk, this was easy to manage as there is actually shooting going on, it wasn't a threat it is actual conflict.

I manage risk daily in the rail business, if I'm getting a warm bearing on a wagon carrying washing machines I'm happy to reduce the speed and fix it later, if I have a warm bearing and I've got a load of ammonium nitrate then it stops straight away.

Any airline risk manager who let their aircraft fly over this should be sacked. Very sloppy way of doing things I was surprised LH and BA did it. Unfortunately if often comes down to money over risk mitigation.

Matt

 

[samh004]

I believe it was Russian separatists leaders. There's also news that the separatists may have taken the black boxes so lets hope that they'll at least give it to the Russians and the Russians should pass it on to the investigation group.

I'd say, without making this too much more political, that Russia is likely to conceal the information if it implicates the separatists, seeing as they're supporting them with weapons and what not. If that turns out to be the case, Russia is in a dangerous spot. I can't imagine the rest of the world as a whole will want to be very friendly going forward.

We all hoped the next MH news would about finding 370. This is terrible.

Indeed, it seems MH is a doomed airline