Malaysian Airlines MH17 Crashes in Ukraine

[anat0l]

From what someone has posted previously on another forum I read, NOTAMs around the area MH17 was shot down were already in place but only for heights up to a certain level. MH17 was apparently flying above this level where NOTAMs didn't apply. After MH17 was shot down, the NOTAM was quickly updated to include all flight levels, effectively zoning it off from flight.

Whether or not MH inadequately assessed the risk and should have flown around the NOTAM zone irrespective of FL is one thing, though I suspect now with the incident having happened, the "crystal ball" effect surfaces and it is difficult for anyone to prove that they had an a priori conclusion to draw that a commercial jet flying like MH17 did would be shot down.

The longer sting in the tail now is the inevitable blame game. Unlike MH370, they have all the pieces and the immediate (or next-to-immediate) reaction is that MH is not directly / fully to blame...or at least yet. The real contenders for the blame is a stiff contest, and we could see an escalation of existing conflict, or even a new cold war.

Irrespective of who is to blame, I think we can all agree it does not matter in the guise that ~300 innocent lives have been taken in most unfair circumstances. And I'm not even at the point - and I doubt I will get to it - whether this incident will be a large nail in MH's coffin, because at the moment it matters very little.

RIP MH17....

 

[prozac]

..................
Indeed, it seems MH is a doomed airline

My thoughts as well sam. MH may be lucky to survive this latest disaster.

 

[burmans]

but the missiles are a game changer in the risk assessment. again, it comes down to who knew what, and what steps were taken to assess the risk.

Sure but this all assumes that the information is "known". I.e. that MH knew about the missiles and/or Ukraine is under some obligation to have told MH about these. To me that is streching it, there is no communication channel between the Ukraine government and MH as far as I know.

And poor communication is the norm in conflict areas. Lest we forget, Australian and US went into Iraq based on flawed information. There was lot of chatter after 9/11 that "we should have known" the reality is the intelligence services knew "something" might happen but not what. There is also plenty of chatter about what weaponry various groups in various parts of the world "might" have, but rumour is not fact. There are many parts of the world where information is not "known" but only rumoured because communication is poor (or indeed there is deliberate missinformation/miscommunication being propogated). Russia/Ukrain is one such place but far from the only one.

 

[burmans]

Woah, just saw/heard the supposed phone call from the rebels to the Russians and sounds like at the end of all this, Russia isn't going to come out looking very good.

Yes, I saw this a while ago and my opinion is that its actually fairly clear what happened here despite the protestations of various sides. Only time will tell but I dont think it will actually take that long for it to become clear despite the rebels attempts to cover up.

 

[samh004]

I wonder if the US/another Western military will go in now, to provide protection to officials who go to investigate (assuming the rebels wont let them in/bully them while there).

 

[vetrade]

The above conversations suggest that the rebels:

a) did not appear to have any idea that commercial aircraft fly over the Ukraine
b) can't differentiate that aircraft flying over the Ukraine (particularly at 30,000 feet plus) ie AMS to KUL does not mean they are landing there & "bringing spies"

I think it also means that people hell-bent on shooting/killing/destroying don't exercise any care and don't really care who they shoot at.

 

[Jack_OC]

As stated elsewhere, QF made the decision not to fly in the area months ago. An area of conflict with missiles with each side backed by a Govt? this was foreseeable.

It's called managing the risk, this was easy to manage as there is actually shooting going on, it wasn't a threat it is actual conflict.

I manage risk daily in the rail business, if I'm getting a warm bearing on a wagon carrying washing machines I'm happy to reduce the speed and fix it later, if I have a warm bearing and I've got a load of ammonium nitrate then it stops straight away.

Any airline risk manager who let their aircraft fly over this should be sacked. Very sloppy way of doing things I was surprised LH and BA did it. Unfortunately if often comes down to money over risk mitigation.

Matt

To be fair though, it does seem like QF was in the minority. According to the BBC, all of the following airlines were flying through the same airspace but have now stopped doing so: Alitalia, Lufthansa, Air France, British Airways, Aeroflot and Turkish Airlines. And we also know that SQ and AI were flying through the same area at the time when the incident occurred, plus it has been reported here that KLM used the same route. So I think it’s fair to say that most major airlines that have relevant routes thought it was ok to fly through this airspace. Again, I agree that “everyone else is doing it so why can’t we” isn’t a great excuse, but this does suggest that across the industry, not many people thought there was a risk of something like this happening. And I know in my field, to establish that someone is negligent, you need to show that most other people in a similar situation would not have taken the same action.

 

[Slats7]

Ukrainian millitary escorted B777 until 3 minutes before disappearing Ukraine air traffic ...

ETN received information from an air traffic controller in Kiev on Malaysia Airlines flight MH17.


This Kiev air traffic controller is a citizen of Spain and was working in the Ukraine. He was taken off duty as a civil air-traffic controller along with other foreigners immediately after a Malaysia Airlines passenger aircraft was shot down over the Eastern Ukraine killing 295 passengers and crew on board.
The air traffic controller suggested in a private evaluation and basing it on military sources in Kiev, that the Ukrainian military was behind this shoot down. Radar records were immediately confiscated after it became clear a passenger jet was shot down.


Military air traffic controllers in internal communication acknowledged the military was involved, and some military chatter said they did not know where the order to shoot down the plane originated from.


Obviously it happened after a series of errors, since the very same plane was escorted by two Ukrainian fighter jets until 3 minutes before it disappeared from radar.

 

[xt_20]

To be fair though, it does seem like QF was in the minority. According to the BBC, all of the following airlines were flying through the same airspace but have now stopped doing so: Alitalia, Lufthansa, Air France, British Airways, Aeroflot and Turkish Airlines. And we also know that SQ and AI were flying through the same area at the time when the incident occurred, plus it has been reported here that KLM used the same route. So I think it’s fair to say that most major airlines that have relevant routes thought it was ok to fly through this airspace. Again, I agree that “everyone else is doing it so why can’t we” isn’t a great excuse, but this does suggest that across the industry, not many people thought there was a risk of something like this happening. And I know in my field, to establish that someone is negligent, you need to show that most other people in a similar situation would not have taken the same action.

Fully agree with you there. The airlines that seem to say "We don't use that route anyway" are airlines that don't need to use that route.
US-based airlines don't have many flights that would need to pass by Ukraine anyway. QF only has DXB-LHR, of which the GC route doesn't go past Ukraine anyway. (Unless flight routes would take them there anyway, which is entirely possible. Can someone clarify this?)

 

[Ikara]

Just heard on the 1000 news that an Adelaide couple decided to leave Amsterdam a day earlier and were put on standby with boarding confirmed two minutes before door closure. They were due to travel on MH17.

That's close!

 

[markis10]

As stated elsewhere, QF made the decision not to fly in the area months ago. An area of conflict with missiles with each side backed by a Govt?

Qantas shifted their routes because it was impacted by the FAA warning re Crimean FIR. Should Australian airlines avoid flying in Australia because our army still cannot account for missing RPGs, while they obviously are useless to aircraft in the air, different story on the ground? There is always risk, it's a matter of assessing how real it is.

 

[dajop]

It's interesting reading the discussion around the different airlines that are travelling or not through the area. I'm flying to Europe from SIN this morning, and heard this sad news before going to bed, and did a quick check of which airlines were still travelling across eastern/north eastern Ukraine, on flight aware. Certainly I saw that SQ, TG, LH and KL flights in the last few days had overflown that general area. Yet, BA had done seem significant circles around the country. Sometimes you wonder if the intelligence the different airlines are being fed is different, with UK having perhaps having better intelligence than others (pure speculation).

Anyway, very very sad, and thoughts go out to those who have lost family, friends and loved ones.

 

[opusman]

As stated elsewhere, QF made the decision not to fly in the area months ago.

Great circle route DXB-LHR goes nowhere near Ukraine though, so they would have to deliberately go out of their way to fly there.

 

[burmans]

Qantas shifted their routes because it was impacted by the FAA warning re Crimean FIR. Should Australian airlines avoid flying in Australia because our army still cannot account for missing RPGs, while they obviously are useless to aircraft in the air, different story on the ground? There is always risk, it's a matter of assessing how real it is.

Exactly my point, if you were to assign an absolutist view on risk assessment you wouldn't fly (or drive, or cross the street).

Risk Assessment/mitigation and foreseeable are two different things, plenty of people would do different things if they knew then what they know now but that doesn't mean the risk assessment process was flawed. As for foreseeable, well if it was so foreseeable show me the predictions it would happen, have yet to see any credible evidence of any of the individuals who think it is foreseeable predicting this before it happened. Cudo's to QF for doing so but the fact that most airlines did continue to fly in this region suggest that MH's assessment of risk at the time was not unreasonable.

 

[jb747]

Ukrainian millitary escorted B777 until 3 minutes before disappearing Ukraine air traffic ...

ETN received information from an air traffic controller in Kiev on Malaysia Airlines flight MH17.


This Kiev air traffic controller is a citizen of Spain and was working in the Ukraine. He was taken off duty as a civil air-traffic controller along with other foreigners immediately after a Malaysia Airlines passenger aircraft was shot down over the Eastern Ukraine killing 295 passengers and crew on board.
The air traffic controller suggested in a private evaluation and basing it on military sources in Kiev, that the Ukrainian military was behind this shoot down. Radar records were immediately confiscated after it became clear a passenger jet was shot down.


Military air traffic controllers in internal communication acknowledged the military was involved, and some military chatter said they did not know where the order to shoot down the plane originated from.


Obviously it happened after a series of errors, since the very same plane was escorted by two Ukrainian fighter jets until 3 minutes before it disappeared from radar.

And that sounds like one of the bigger loads of horse manure that I've read this morning.

 

[medhead]

I am going to mention the elephant in the room. How many thousands of flights have flown over Afghanistan since 2003. I've been on a Qantas flight at least twice flying over that WAR ZONE I even have the pictures to prove it. Absolutely ludicrous to try to pretend there is anything unsafe or unique about MH flying in a well used flight corridor.

I don't see anyone commenting about the dog ***** dumb dirt farmer at the other end of the missile, who thinks an aircraft at 32000 feet is flying spies into the area. Well that was the general on the other end of the phone, apparently.
[redacted political argument]

 

[Slats7]

MH17 flew exactly as other aircraft in the area - it bypassed the area singled out by Eurocontrol as 'dangereous' (and restricted). This plane flew exactly as everybody else in the area per the latest info. Also the "closed" areas in the general area only blocked altitudes to FL320, this plane flew higher. So this plane was 100% 'legal' in terms of its route.

 

[jb747]

I am going to mention the elephant in the room. How many thousands of flights have flown over Afghanistan still 2003. I've been on a Qantas flight at least twice flying over that WAR ZONE I even have the pictures to prove it. Absolutely ludicrous to try to pretend there is anything unsafe or unique about MH flying in a well used flight corridor.

Aircraft fly over many areas that are effectively war zones. But, in the vast majority of cases (Afghanistan in particular), the locals were only ever armed with shoulder launcher weapons, and they simply don't have the ability to get up to the airliners. They are dangerous to aircraft at low level, as shown by the A300 that was hit at Kabul, but not to aircraft in the cruise. Note too, that levels below about FL300 were not available for use at all.

Ukraine is unusual in that we now have terrorists (or whatever you want to call them) in possession of high powered, long range SAMs. From what I can gather, they've only recently acquired them. The conspiracy theorists will go mad over this (as usual), but I see it as a thug with a big gun.

 

[Alanslegal]

Terrible and tragic news to be hearing first thing in the morning when you wake up

Re: QF avoiding Ukrainian airspace. It might feel good for them to say they were avoiding Ukraine airspace but their only flights DXB-LHR-DXB would have been many hundreds of kms south of Ukraine anyway.

 

[burmans]

I am going to mention the elephant in the room. How many thousands of flights have flown over Afghanistan still 2003.

Yes when I looked at the map I also wondered this. Russia (Chechnya), Afghanistan, Iran, Iraq, Pakistan, there are plenty of "potentially" risky areas flown over here.