MH 777 missing - MH370 media statement

[burmans]

In nearly all cases, things are not made public when they are NOT backed by evidence.

Somehow I think you must be living in a parrallel universe to me, it seems to me things are made public all the time when they are not backed by evidence, in fact that's the case much more than when we have solid evidence based statements in the press.

So I think I'm possibly more cynical than yourself.

 

[DrA]

But scientists wouldn't ask their community to simply have faith in them...

Yes and no. As a scientist who occasionally gets to work with confidential data supplied from various sources, I can understand the fact that they may not be able to publicly disclose what sources were used in the analysis. I have to do the same thing myself from time to time when presenting results at conferences.

 

[equus]

In nearly all cases, things are not made public when they are NOT backed by evidence.
At least we are now all in agreement that they have provided the public (and the Malaysian PM) zero evidence.

Ah, but in this case, my cynicism is, I suspect, along the same lines as drron. I suspect that this is backed up by evidence, but the evidence is not of the sort that will be made public.

Not really a conspiracy theory, but along those lines - if there is strong direct observation from classified sources that will not be revealed, what better way to get the word out than "rush" some research on flimsy evidence that may or may not be valid, but provides a plausible method that might have been used to "discover" what was known all along.

 

[markis10]

There are facts and there are beliefs, with common sense often sitting somewhere in between.

In other news, AMSA was also involved in another SAR near Eden yesterday, its not unusual to have at least two SARs in action at any given time:

Local water police were involved in a coordinated search and rescue mission in the early hours of Monday morning, rescuing four men who activated a distress beacon when their 48-foot yacht began to sink, 27 miles southwest of Mallacoota.

The Royal Australian Navy and the Australian Maritime and Safety Authority also provided assistance, deploying aircraft and diverting ships as part of the rescue effort. The four men had just finished their dinner on board the vessel at around 8.30pm on Sunday night, when they returned to the galley to find themselves ankle deep in water

Water Police, Navy, AMSA combine to save yachtsmen | Magnet

While the Vice Chief of Defence confirmed Ocean Shield will be joining the search as I posted early today.

Prior to the MAS press conference, Australia’s vice chief of defence force, AM Mark Binskin said at a press conference in Perth that a second ship, Australian Defence Vessel Ocean Shield, has been dispatched from Sydney to join the sea search, although it is expected to take some days to reach the area.

MAS braces for long, complex investigation into MH370 - 3/25/2014 - Flight Global

 

[robd]

Ah, but in this case, my cynicism is, I suspect, along the same lines as drron. I suspect that this is backed up by evidence, but the evidence is not of the sort that will be made public.

Not really a conspiracy theory, but along those lines - if there is strong direct observation from classified sources that will not be revealed, what better way to get the word out than "rush" some research on flimsy evidence that may or may not be valid, but provides a plausible method that might have been used to "discover" what was known all along.

I'm with you on this. I reckon at least one country, if not more, knew where this all happened way before they were able to let on.

 

[RooFlyer]

Which bit?

The bit where the journalists stamp their foot, whine and say "Its all about us".

 

[Ric]

Ah, but in this case, my cynicism is, I suspect, along the same lines as drron. I suspect that this is backed up by evidence, but the evidence is not of the sort that will be made public.

I'm with you on this. I reckon at least one country, if not more, knew where this all happened way before they were able to let on.

So was the Malaysian Government lying, not being transparent etc, as accused of, or were they gagged and/or simply didn't have the information??

 

[DrA]

So was the Malaysian Government lying, not being transparent etc, as accused of, or were they gagged and/or simply didn't have the information??

Some combination thereof.

I suspect it was part "saving face" and not wanting to admit they had no idea - which amounts to lying and lack of transparency I suppose. Also likely part lack of information - remember how late in the game the Thai's admitted that they had critical information that they hadn't released?

I think it likely the US and Chinese knew more about what was going on than the Malaysians.

 

[equus]

I would suggest that information of the sort that may be out there is not being provided to Malaysia or China.

That doesn't change in any way a consideration of what was done with information which was available at the time (which, theories or suspicions aside) may very well be all the information that actually existed.

 

[Moody]

I think some people on this thread like the sound of their own voice soooo much, that they are willing to spout utter rubbish just to see it in virtual print.

What I know after the last 2.5 weeks of this unfolding tragedy:-

1. You can "hide" a large passenger jet if you turn off enough communication systems and head for areas with no radar coverage.
2. Most senior members of the Malaysian government have been promoted waaayyyy above their level of competency
3. Notwithstanding #2 .... coordinating the civil and military efforts between countries is not easy.
4. Inmarsat handshakes were never designed to track aircraft, so we should cut the boffins some slack.
5. I know more ... but gotta cook dinner now.

 

[Robbi]

But scientists wouldn't ask their community to simply have faith in them...

Like anthropogenic global warning you mean...like sugar in diets....like saturated fats... bah....

 

[drron]

I doubt the Malaysians had that much information.I don't think that continuing the South china sea was wrong-there certainly wasn't all the information to suspend that in the first week.The change for me came when the USS Kidd was sent to the Indian Ocean on 13/3.I doubt the pings were the reason at that time for that move.Now if there was info from Pine Gap I doubt the Malaysians will ever see that.

I have thought for the last 2 weeks that the major problem is the media-they just have to have a story no matter what.Good to see the ABC and a NYT fellow backing this up-
It's about the media, not the plane - The Drum (Australian Broadcasting Corporation)
http://www.nytimes.com/2014/03/25/opinion/cohen-story-of-the-century.html?ref=opinion&_r=0

 

[Robbi]

I doubt the Malaysians had that much information.I don't think that continuing the South china sea was wrong-there certainly wasn't all the information to suspend that in the first week.The change for me came when the USS Kidd was sent to the Indian Ocean on 13/3.I doubt the pings were the reason at that time for that move.Now if there was info from Pine Gap I doubt the Malaysians will ever see that.

I have thought for the last 2 weeks that the major problem is the media-they just have to have a story no matter what.Good to see the ABC and a NYT fellow backing this up-
It's about the media, not the plane - The Drum (Australian Broadcasting Corporation)
http://www.nytimes.com/2014/03/25/opinion/cohen-story-of-the-century.html?ref=opinion&_r=0

This is the real issue here. The media has to know everything, make up stuff if they don't, prognosticate about things they will never understand, find experts that aren't, publish regardless of facts...it's all about filling column inches and airtime.

Most of the press conferences until now should have been 30 seconds long and saying as little as possible.

 

[Robbi]

No need to be spooked - it is called a glory (a rainbow essentially) the shape of the plane is just a shadow from your plane.

Fairly rare to be seen but don't get too spooked out.

Not that rare, I have managed to get photos of these, none as beaut as this one, on most flights through broken cloud where the sun is on the opposite side of the aircraft to me.

 

[Robbi]

Again the problem with your arguments are that prominent scientists and the UK AAIB have poured over the information and are reasonably convinced this is the correct interpretation of the evidence.Now if you have contacts that know more than experienced UK plane crash investigators then please give us a source.

The other problem with these arguments is that just because some people don't understand how it could work, doesn't mean it is wrong. Just you don't understand how it works.

 

[robd]

Some combination thereof.

I suspect it was part "saving face" and not wanting to admit they had no idea - which amounts to lying and lack of transparency I suppose. Also likely part lack of information - remember how late in the game the Thai's admitted that they had critical information that they hadn't released?

I think it likely the US and Chinese knew more about what was going on than the Malaysians.

I agree. When the arc showing potential range area was issued, the US were reporting the southern area confidently.

 

[lovetravellingoz]

I agree.

Here is why it is rubbery. The claims have been made without any detail of the calculations but they did give us these gems (normally used by latenight TV spruikers) for comfort:

• "an entirely new way of modelling "
• "dealing with a totally new area"
• "a bit of a shot in the dark"
• "is really quite phenomenal"
• "it's not a routine calculation they would ever, ever make."
• "Technologically it's really quite astounding."

I would point out that they did not need precision. They just had to work out if the plane went north or south.

If south, there are no options. Just a wide expanse of water.

If north it could have been on land or water...even safe.


Such imprecision would be pretty useless for anything else. But in this case it was crucial.

 

[Robbi]

I agree.

Here is why it is rubbery. The claims have been made without any detail of the calculations but they did give us these gems (normally used by latenight TV spruikers) for comfort:

• "an entirely new way of modelling "
• "dealing with a totally new area"
• "a bit of a shot in the dark"
• "is really quite phenomenal"
• "it's not a routine calculation they would ever, ever make."
• "Technologically it's really quite astounding."

Here is why it is not slippery. Some boffins who normally would never talk publicly, now are talking publicly and not giving polished media performances.

Why?
* Because they have discovered there is information routinely hoovered up in their system that with some lateral thinking could be used to to locate a missing aircraft.
* They are so chuffed to have been able to possibly help solve a major international mystery that even though they don't put on a polished performance in the media feeding frenzy they keep at it.

It's very sad that lateral thinking, nous and intelligence is so disparaged, and I thought creativity and invention was supposed to be the Australian way.

 

[Himeno]

Now the media (and I guess Malaysia) are saying "confirmed in Indian Ocean"...
Until they pull something out of the ocean from that aircraft, it isn't confirmed.

 

[Ric]

2. Most senior members of the Malaysian government have been promoted waaayyyy above their level of competency

Absolutely and completely agreed!!