MH 777 missing - MH370 media statement

[Buzzard]

Mrs Buzzard should be out there looking for it.

Whenever I loose anything she always seems to find it.

 

[DrA]

Yes both the US and the nuclear test ban treaty organisation say no evidence of an explosion.
Also if the plane went into the water intact it really should have shown up on the tsunami warning systems that are quite numerous now around that area particularly the west coast of Malaysia.

Possibly not. I've done a bit of work on geological hazard assessment and those buoys record certain types of movement. I have no idea what type of movement the impact of a plane would cause, but it's possible that the resulting movement of the buoys wouldn't trigger a warning.

 

[Jack_OC]

Yes both the US and the nuclear test ban treaty organisation say no evidence of an explosion.
Also if the plane went into the water intact it really should have shown up on the tsunami warning systems that are quite numerous now around that area particularly the west coast of Malaysia.

Are you speculating here or do you know that a plane going into the water would show up on a Tsunami warning system? If both of these things are true, wouldn't it allow them to fairly safely conclude that the plane did not come down on the water (either in one piece or in many fragments)? And consequently there is no point in even looking for it at sea?

 

[markis10]

Forgive my ignorance, but my understanding was that the military had the capability to detect explosions mid-air and that they'd already ruled this out due to nothing showing up on their detection systems? If there was an "explosive loss of pressure" as the linked article indicates, wouldn't that have been detected?

An explosive decompression is unlikely to have the same footprint acoustically as one from explosive material I would imagine, nor the same shock footprint?

 

[DrA]

An explosive decompression is unlikely to have the same footprint acoustically as one from explosive material I would imagine, nor the same shock footprint?

Not the same footprint I'd imagine, but I would still expect some kind of anomaly to show up.

 

[straitman]

Theory #2389B but it sounds more technically sound than others I've read. It would seem to point to a flaw in the 777 though which you'd think would have been addressed by now if it were an issue.

Was there a problem with the MH370 Boeing 777-200 aircraft? | Lowyat.NET

A few errors here.

The most obvious:

As markis10 mentioned the AD applies to US a/c only but the AD would have been issued in conjunction with Boeing. The FAA does not simply invent ADs they work them through with the experts (read manufacturer), who would have passed it on to all airlines and it would have a definitive time line. Depending on the degree of importance they can vary between no flights until completed through to ongoing inspections and to be done on the next service. That's how the system works.

There are many antenna locations on the a/c so losing the SATCOM array as mentioned would not cause a total loss of comms. They would know what was not working by the lack of responses from anyone.

The mention of no pax oxygen masks until 13,500 ft is also a red herring IMHO. The Time of Useful Consciousness (TUC) at 15,000 ft is in excess of 30 minutes.

See: Time of Useful Consciousness

 

[markis10]

Not the same footprint I'd imagine, but I would still expect some kind of anomaly to show up.

I am not so sure, a decompression would have to feature the same LF emission an explosion does for it to trigger from what I read briefly.

 

[get me outta here]

I have not been impressed with the contradictory responses from officials in Malaysia, who didn't say anything for a long time in the beginning, not what is recommend for companies in the case of a catastrophic business failure of some sort.

But my main point is what will be the effect of this in the sort term, will the general public or ff avoid it for new bookings, will their flights get cheaper now?

 

[DrA]

I am not so sure, a decompression would have to feature the same LF emission an explosion does for it to trigger from what I read briefly.

I concede that my expertise is more in remote sensing and geophysics, but my understanding is that you should be able to extract the low frequency signal from a decompression event and that would in theory show up as an anomaly. I suppose it depends on the sensitivity of the detection instruments, and they may not detect a low enough magnitude signal that a decompression event might emit. Though it would surprise me if the military didn't have this capability...

 

[DrA]

But my main point is what will be the effect of this in the sort term, will the general public or ff avoid it for new bookings, will their flights get cheaper now?

Well I know my parents who were considering flying MH to Europe in July for a holiday have now "definitely taken Malaysia Airlines off the possibility list".

 

[prozac]

Possibly not. I've done a bit of work on geological hazard assessment and those buoys record certain types of movement. I have no idea what type of movement the impact of a plane would cause, but it's possible that the resulting movement of the buoys wouldn't trigger a warning.

The tsunami warning system would be unlikely to detect a plane plunging into the ocean. Maybe it would if it was within a couple of hundred yards but I doubt it.

Essentially they measure sudden changes in water depth by measuring the water pressure with a sensor located on the seabed. The sensor relays the changes to a surface buoy which transmits via a satellite to the tsunami warning centre. The system operates in standard or event mode. In standard mode it reports at regular time intervals eg: every 15 minutes. A rapidly passing seismic wave (energy in the sea bed triggered by an earth tremor) will trigger the sensor into event mode switching reporting to one minute intervals. The sensor then remains alert for 4 hrs in anticipation of detecting water pressure changes due to rapid change in water depth.

 

[markis10]

Hmm

'Malaysia Air Force chief tells ABC News in KL unable to release radar or timeline, but "No Comment" as to why."

meanwhile China have had enough:

Eight Chinese rescue ships have arrived at the #MH370 search site. China will now double its search area in the Gulf of Thailand. @cctvnews

 

[Bundy Bear]

A few errors here.

The most obvious:

As markis10 mentioned the AD applies to US a/c only but the AD would have been issued in conjunction with Boeing. The FAA does not simply invent ADs they work them through with the experts (read manufacturer), who would have passed it on to all airlines and it would have a definitive time line. Depending on the degree of importance they can vary between no flights until completed through to ongoing inspections and to be done on the next service. That's how the system works.

There are many antenna locations on the a/c so losing the SATCOM array as mentioned would not cause a total loss of comms. They would know what was not working by the lack of responses from anyone.

The mention of no pax oxygen masks until 13,500 ft is also a red herring IMHO. The Time of Useful Consciousness (TUC) at 15,000 ft is in excess of 30 minutes.

See: Time of Useful Consciousness

The mystery deepens, someone wasn't doing their job or paying attention when a plane suddenly drops off the radar.

I was flying with one airline on a 747 a few years ago and I was surprised that Boeing was able to make a plane that many people could operate and put in systems in places that an average pilot or aircrew could operate successfully and make money.

Air France when they lost their aircraft had a good idea where they had lost their aircraft and lots of data through their ACARS system to see how the plane was operating.

All airlines and aircrew can operate one of these planes, but its when things go wrong, where things start to unravel. I am sure the pilots did the best they could to keep the aircraft flying but now Malaysian airlines has no idea where their plane has ended up.

Almost like Qantas and Jetstar, Qantas cancel a flight then Qantas have the staff and resources to fix any problem or flight cancellation, Jetstar have contract staff so when things are going well everything is good, but when a problem occurs then things start to go haywire, seems like the problem we have here with Malaysia Airlines,

I hope they find the plane soon, so we can all concentrate on work again.

 

[Rox]

If you follow the theory of it flying west, it could end up almost to India with 7 hours flying time. Would there be any monitoring facilities on the north of Sumatra, as it looks as if it would fly over that in this scenario?

 

[Warks]

This from The Guardian website:

Here’s something interesting - New Scientist are reporting that they have learnt that Rolls Royce may have received two sets of flight data from the missing plane. The first was at take-off and the second was during the climb towards Beijing. The data is from the Airborne Communications Addressing and Reporting System (ACARS):

The missing Malaysia Airlines jet sent at least two bursts of technical data back to the airline before it disappeared,New Scientist has learned. The data may help investigators understand what went wrong with the aircraft, no trace of which has yet been found.
To aid maintenance, most airlines use the Aircraft Communications Addressing and Reporting System (ACARS), which automatically collates and files four technical reports during every flight so that engineers can spot problems. These reports are sent via VHF radio or satellite at take-off, during the climb, at some point while cruising, and on landing.
Malaysia Airlines has not revealed if it has learned anything from ACARS data, or if it has any. Its eleventh media statement since the plane disappeared said: “All Malaysia Airlines aircraft are equipped with… ACARS which transmits data automatically. Nevertheless, there were no distress calls and no information was relayed.”
​

This would suggest no concrete data is to hand. But New Scientistunderstands that the maker of the missing Boeing 777’s Trent 800 engines, Rolls Royce, received two data reports from flight MH370 at its global engine health monitoring centre in Derby, UK, where it keeps real-time tabs on its engines in use. One was broadcast as MH370 took off from Kuala Lumpur International Airport, the other during the 777’s climb out towards Beijing.

My bolding.

MH370 search goes on amid confusion over plane's disappearance

 

[markis10]

This from The Guardian website:



My bolding.

MH370 search goes on amid confusion over plane's disappearance

Whats your point?

 

[mannej]

If you follow the theory of it flying west, it could end up almost to India with 7 hours flying time. Would there be any monitoring facilities on the north of Sumatra, as it looks as if it would fly over that in this scenario?

Almost to India? The last time I flew SIN to HYD it was around 4-5 hours from memory

 

[medhead]

I can't imagine the Australian government, or military, would ever release information that wasn't 100% verified.

Google Scott Morrison and you will find a very recent example of the Australian government releasing unverified information.

Also check out comments about the effect of the carbon tax on Qantas.

 

[Warks]

Whats your point?

Wasn't it said the MH planes didn't have ACARS?

Also it was interesting the separate source of transmitted data.

 

[dk4]

Though it would surprise me if the military didn't have this capability...

I doubt the Malaysian military or government would want some other countries in the region knowing exactly what its capabilities are. :idea:

When one of the RAAF aeroplanes was reportedly sent to search over the Straits of Malacca a few days ago, many thought it was simply due to the location of the Butterworth AF base, seems a more logical decision now, with this new radar information publicly released.