NBN Discussion

[drsmithy]

In the context of the latest MacBook Air versus previous model that is not the case, its a performance drop, I am not comparing a 2013 model to the first model at all. I am well across processor performance having been an Intel employee.

MacBook Air Benchmarks (June 2013)

 

[markis10]

MacBook Air Benchmarks (June 2013)

Thats a system level benchmark affected by north and south bridge components as well as the CPU, such as the faster HDD and more memory of the later models, in terms of pure CPU performance platform and bus peripheral independent, it is in fact a slight performance degradation from the CPU offset by lower power:

Intel Core i5 4250U vs 3427U

I have the feeling if we ever need the speed on offer currently through FTTH, when that time comes we will have technology to deliver it that is more flexible and cheaper than what we have today.

 

[drsmithy]

Re: Oz Federal Election 2013 - Discussion and Comments

It's never going to happen. The NBN needs to connect to 90% of households to break even. 50% of houses get by without a landline, and that's right now.

Interesting statistic. Got a cite ?

I find it unusual if half the population lacks a landline connection of some description, I cannot think of a single person I know who doesn't have one, in demographics ranging from people in their mid-20s to late 80s, and from hipster technology wiz to devout luddite.

 

[drsmithy]

Thats a system level benchmark affected by north and south bridge components as well as the CPU, such as the faster HDD and more memory of the later models, in terms of pure CPU performance platform and bus peripheral independent, it is in fact a slight performance degradation from the CPU offset by lower power:

Intel Core i5 4250U vs 3427U

According to that link, the 4250U provides essentially the same performance as the 3427U, despite running at only 75% of the clock speed.

Which was my point.

I have the feeling if we ever need the speed on offer currently through FTTH, when that time comes we will have technology to deliver it that is more flexible and cheaper than what we have today.

But the benchmark is not the speed on offer through FTTH, it's better than the speed currently on offer through FTTN.

Based on historical projections of bandwidth usage, the performance available from FTTN will be exceeded within a couple of decades - and that's best-case FTTN performance, not common-case.

Now, it's possible some completely unimagined communications technology might be discovered that would obselete the performance capabilities of optical fibre within the next decade or two, but that's a bit like saying you'll take an interest-only mortgage until you win the lotto.

 

[Skyring]

Re: Oz Federal Election 2013 - Discussion and Comments

Interesting statistic. Got a cite ?

I find it unusual if half the population lacks a landline connection of some description, I cannot think of a single person I know who doesn't have one, in demographics ranging from people in their mid-20s to late 80s, and from hipster technology wiz to devout luddite.

My mistake. It's fewer than half - of the population. The number of landlines in Australia is 10 700 000.

19% have ditched a landline entirely, and that number is growing by 20% each year. Of that group, 81% rely on 3G for their internet.

Given these trends, by the time the NBN is finished in twenty years, nobody will be using it.

 

[amaroo]

Re: Oz Federal Election 2013 - Discussion and Comments

My mistake. It's fewer than half - of the population. The number of landlines in Australia is 10 700 000.

19% have ditched a landline entirely, and that number is growing by 20% each year. Of that group, 81% rely on 3G for their internet.

Given these trends, by the time the NBN is finished in twenty years, nobody will be using it.

Sounds about right. I know heaps of people that have tossed their landlines......some of them probably have never answered a phone that's connected to a wall socket:shock:

Bit like the pay phones of old....don't see too many of those ancient things around.

 

[drsmithy]

Re: Oz Federal Election 2013 - Discussion and Comments

My mistake. It's fewer than half - of the population. The number of landlines in Australia is 10 700 000.

So, basically, every household in the country has a landline connection.

19% have ditched a landline entirely, and that number is growing by 20% each year. Of that group, 81% rely on 3G for their internet.

You are quite dishonestly conflating people abandoning landlines for voice, with internet connectivity.

"In addition, the ACMA found that 35 per cent of mobile-only users do not have a home Internet connection. The agency said that 45 per cent of those accessed the internet using a mobile phone, while others did so at work, school, the library or other places besides home."

So, some ~3% of the population are solely using cellular for their internet connectivity (35% x 20% x 45%). The rest rely on some sort of landline connection.

Given these trends, by the time the NBN is finished in twenty years, nobody will be using it.

No, not really. Indeed, given the increasing bandwidth requirements for media, software, and user data in general, the suggestion is absurd.

Cellular is a complimentary technology, like tablets are to proper computers. It will never be able to provide the bandwidth and reliability of a hardline. As bandwidth requirements continue to increase, the need for some sort of high-bandwidth connectivity will only increase.

I have no doubt whatsoever the growth in cellular connectivity will continue to increase dramatically. But it will _supplement_ landline connectivity, not _replace_ it.

 

[Austman]

Just got an email from our Owners Corporation managers about the NBN roll-out. What a joke! Along with just about everything NBN Co has produced for apartment buildings, it says, essentially, *nothing*. Well no actual details that is. They need to inspect the property, they need to design the solution and then they'll take it from there. Really??? It's just like what Bigpond/Optus/Foxtel said.

http://www.vbcs.com.au/pdf/NBN Roll Out NBN.pdf

 

[drsmithy]

Re: Oz Federal Election 2013 - Discussion and Comments

We don't have a landline. My son doesn't have a landline (Sydney). Our investment apartment doesn't have a landline. That's three out of three for us.

Doesn't have a phone or doesn't have a landline connection at all ?

They are two very different things.

I know lots of people (myself included) who don't have a fixed phone. Indeed, I haven't had a fixed phone since 2006.

I know lots of people (myself included) who have cellular internet connectivity.

I don't know anyone who doesn't have some sort of hardline home internet connection at home (eg: ADSL or cable).

 

[casanovawa]

Re: Oz Federal Election 2013 - Discussion and Comments

I don't have a landline of any sort connected to my rental, mobile phone, wireless internet, satellite foxtel about to be connected...

 

[Skyring]

Re: Oz Federal Election 2013 - Discussion and Comments

So, basically, every household in the country has a landline connection.

Not unless you imagine that of those 10 700 000 landlines, none are used by business, government or other agencies. Do you imagine that?

We can't look into every private house to see if there's a phone, but we can look into offices, shops, schools, churches, hospitals, police. Do we see any telephones in these places?

I think we know the answer.

"In addition, the ACMA found that 35 per cent of mobile-only users do not have a home Internet connection. The agency said that 45 per cent of those accessed the internet using a mobile phone, while others did so at work, school, the library or other places besides home."

So, some ~3% of the population are solely using cellular for their internet connectivity (35% x 20% x 45%). The rest rely on some sort of landline connection.

Well, that's your guess. Let's look at the figures.

We have 19% of the population using mobile phones alone. That's 3 300 000. "Unsurprisingly, the phenomenon is much more marked amongst younger users, some of whom will presumably go through their whole lives without ever signing up for a landline phone. The only real difficulty there is the need for internet connectivity, but amongst that 19 per cent, a large proportion (81 per cent) also rely on 3G or 3G rather than fixed broadband. - Lifehacker Australia" That's 2 670 000 - 12% and growing.

The NBN rollout proceeds at a snail's pace, with the government delaying progress reports until after the election, and active accounts number in the tens of thousands, rather than hundreds of thousands or millions required.

I don't know anybody who claims the thing is a success. In fact, with asbestos, cost-overruns, poor take-up, high executive salaries and other horror stories, it's looking like another pink batts schemozzle.

I guess we'll know more in a few weeks when the new PM shuts the thing down.

 

[drsmithy]

Re: Oz Federal Election 2013 - Discussion and Comments

Not unless you imagine that of those 10 700 000 landlines, none are used by business, government or other agencies. Do you imagine that?

We can't look into every private house to see if there's a phone, but we can look into offices, shops, schools, churches, hospitals, police. Do we see any telephones in these places?

I think we know the answer.

There's somewhere in the ballpark of 8 million households in Australia.

I'd say it's safe to assume 90%+ of them have a landline internet connection of some description.

Well, that's your guess. Let's look at the figures.

No, that's my calculation based on the first link you posted, which said:

3,300,000 people use mobiles only for voice.
35% (1,155,000) do not have a home internet connection.
45% of those (519,750) use their phones for mobile internet, with the others using fixed connections in other locations (schools, libraries, etc).

~500k represents about 3% of the population.

The NBN rollout proceeds at a snail's pace, with the government delaying progress reports until after the election, and active accounts number in the tens of thousands, rather than hundreds of thousands or millions required.

I don't know anybody who claims the thing is a success. In fact, with asbestos, cost-overruns, poor take-up, high executive salaries and other horror stories, it's looking like another pink batts schemozzle.


I guess we'll know more in a few weeks when the new PM shuts the thing down.

Yes, obviously because a massive piece of complex national infrastructure isn't working perfectly from day one, the only rational thing to do is to shut the whole thing down.

I'm glad you guys weren't running the country back in the days when we were building the Sydney Harbour Bridge. It would only have had room for a single trainline and two lanes of cars.

 

[Austman]

Re: Oz Federal Election 2013 - Discussion and Comments

I don't know anyone who doesn't have some sort of hardline home internet connection at home (eg: ADSL or cable).

That's me and I know many others. All totally mobile only. On Telstra Pre-Pay. I use 4-5GB of data/month which costs around $50/month, including phone calls. 4-5GB/month (my average use over the past 4 years) seems fine if you don't download videos or watch youtube, iview etc much. Not an option if you have much greater GB/month needs.

 

[ferni]

Re: Oz Federal Election 2013 - Discussion and Comments

That's me and I know many others. All totally mobile only. On Telstra Pre-Pay. I use 4-5GB of data/month which costs around $50/month, including phone calls. 4-5GB/month (my average use over the past 4 years) seems fine if you don't download videos or watch youtube, iview etc much. Not an option if you have much greater GB/month needs.

So what you're saying is that 3G/4G Internet is ok as long as you don't use the Internet for over half of it's bandwidth use today (57% of Internet bandwidth in 2012 was streaming video).
Cisco Visual Networking Index: Forecast and Methodology, 2012?2017  [Visual Networking Index (VNI)] - Cisco Systems

It's much harder to innovate when the platform doesn't exist. Provide the platform and innovation will come, it always does.

Bandwidth usage strongly correlates with the availability of faster broadband speeds. This trend can be seen when comparing networks within countries and more widely from region to region. This tells us that capacity and usage are interwoven, and that increasing capacity will ultimately lead to the adoption of new services and greater use. The relationship between availability and usage is important when considering the question of how much bandwidth is enough.

Power Users Drive Worldwide Internet Broadband Bandwidth Demand, According to Research from IDC - prUS23372312

 

[ferni]

Re: Oz Federal Election 2013 - Discussion and Comments

I guess we'll know more in a few weeks when the new PM shuts the thing down.

But he's not going to shut it down. He is going to change it to FTTN which will cost nearly as much but have significantly less impact and life. Why waste money doing something half coughd?

 

[Hvr]

Re: Oz Federal Election 2013 - Discussion and Comments

<snip> Why waste money doing something half coughd?

Because it is infrastructure and the Liberals don't do infrastructure.

Then when it costs billions more to fix up Labor will be back in office and they'll incur the debt (and abuse) to fix up the stuff ups made by the Liberal party.

 

[Austman]

Re: Oz Federal Election 2013 - Discussion and Comments

So what you're saying is that 3G/4G Internet is ok as long as you don't use the Internet for over half of it's bandwidth use today (57% of Internet bandwidth in 2012 was streaming video).
Cisco Visual Networking Index: Forecast and Methodology, 2012?2017* [Visual Networking Index (VNI)] - Cisco Systems

I suppose so! Is streaming video (the major use) an innovation?

3G/4G data is great for those who don't want or don't need to use more than 4-5GB/month. I don't watch streaming (or virtually any) on-line video. But I am on-line around 16/7 and run my business and earn all my income from it, so I perhaps have more interest in being on-line than many. I also travel a lot so mobile data around Australia is vitally important - and a land connection at home is not going to help me at all when I'm away from home.

But I do acknowledge that the NBN should be very good as a backbone network and great for many businesses and homes.

I'm just not sure I want to be forced to pay ca $2,000 to get connected to it at home.

 

[ferni]

Re: Oz Federal Election 2013 - Discussion and Comments

I suppose so! Is streaming video (the major use) an innovation?

3G/4G data is great for those who don't want or don't need to use more than 4-5GB/month. I don't watch streaming (or virtually any) on-line video. But I am on-line around 16/7 and run my business and earn all my income from it, so I perhaps have more interest in being on-line than many. I also travel a lot so mobile data around Australia is vitally important - and a land connection at home is not going to help me at all when I'm away from home.

But I do acknowledge that the NBN should be very good as a backbone network and great for many businesses and homes.

I'm just not sure I want to be forced to pay ca $2,000 to get connected to it at home.

I think a lot of people would argue that youtube is a major innovation... I'm not a massive YouTube user but I have found it useful on occasions when trying to find out how to do something, there are a heap of how-to videos... sometimes easier to watch someone doing it than reading about it etc... I'm not sure I would call it Major, but it is innovation. If someone told you 20 years ago that you could just startup your computer and search for any video clip you wanted and you would likely find it, your mind would have been blown... these days we take it for granted.

Vint Cerf (wrote TCP/IP which the Internet is built on) once said

I do not think that more than 1% of the net's applications have been invented, 99% of applications still lie in the future. I am not sure what they are.

Remind me again why you have to pay $2,000 to connect? Because you're in an apartment? I don't think that's been sorted out yet. I still don't see how the cost is 2k PP. Lets say you're in a 50 apartment complex... at 2k Per apartment that is 100k to run fibre (replace the copper?). Lets say the tradie doing it charges 1k/day.. that's 100 days effort (minus cost of fibre)... would it really take 100 days for someone to run fibre in a 50 block apartment? I don't think it should....

 

[drsmithy]

Re: Oz Federal Election 2013 - Discussion and Comments

I suppose so! Is streaming video (the major use) an innovation?

In and of itself, no.

What uses people dream up for it, absolutely.

Think about the "innovations" that have stemmed from the communications abilities engendered by the telegraph. Then by the telephone. Then by switched telephony. Then by mobile telephony.

What does news reporting look like today compared to a century ago thanks to improvements in communications technology ? Education ? Medical care ? Business processes ? Personal relationships ?

 

[wmetz]

Re: Oz Federal Election 2013 - Discussion and Comments

I did just did a check on fiber cable prices. You can buy pre terminated fibre cable about 50m long for $100.Assuming your 10 story building has proper wiring piping. Then adding on the cost of modem in each apartment and a router in the basement. If would not cost more than $250 per apartment.