Re: Where will you be election day (September 14th)
An interesting tactic, announcing the date this far out. However, unlike most election date announcements, this one isn't on the back of a visit to the Governor-General, issuing of writs etc. The election may still be called sooner or later than the date announced, though a deviation from 14 September would attract criticism. If there is a change of leader - and I see Bob Carr as the most likely - then I would expect him to disown Gillard's announcement, call a quick election, and likely slide home on the honeymoon factor and the general lack of warmth towards Tony Abbott.
Lithe interesting thing is in the timing. It's pretty much square in the middle of the period between the earliest an election may be held without forcing a seperate half-Senate election later (1 July) and the latest the election can be called - a month after three years since the first meeting of the old Parliament, which puts it in November, I think.
Governments traditionally try to avoid half-Senate elections, because there is a "by-election" factor, with voters registering a protest against the government, secure in the knowledge that the government won't change. They'll just find it harder to get legislation through the Senate. It's been forty years and more since we had a half-Senate election.
And governments likewise try to avoid going full term, because if they leave it too long, then they lose the advantage of setting the election date. If there is only the last possible day left, then the opposition simply begin campaigning anyway.
So why did Julia lock herself in, eight months out? She's thrown away the traditional advantage of being able to pick the best moment to call the election, and elections aren't won so easy that advantages can be thrown away. Julia, more than any other PM, can't afford to lose even the tiniest factor in her favour.
My guess is that with Tony Abbott beginning the election year by launching a mini-campaign, she's trying to avoid seven months of scrutiny. She can't survive that. The Libs' election ads were always going to focus on Gillard's slips and fumbles, but even Tony Abbott can't justify eight months of campaigning without the excuse that an election could be called any moment.
Gillard isn't going to be the rabbit in the spotlight now, everyone wondering just when she'll pull the election trigger to end the misery.
Instead, the focus will be on Abbott, who is going to have eight months of scrutiny over the details of his policies. Without the shield of an uncertain election date, he has no excuse to hide them away. He's going to look like he's dithering and delaying every step of the way.
In truth, both parties - and both leaders - are about as good as each other. I don't think either will give us starvation and disaster. Or feasting and bounty. I really have no great worries over who will lead us over the next few years. We'll do just fine. We'll grumble over little things, but we'll have jobs if we want them, houses to live in, hospitals to patch us up, schools to educate the kiddies.
What I don't like, and this is what decides my vote, is the politicking, the deception, the lack of transparency that Gillard has given us since Day One. Every Question Time she is asked the most pertinent and pointed questions. And every time she rises to answer, she deflects and evades and wriggles away from an honest direct answer.
The asylum-seeker issue is a case in point. It's been a total disaster every step of the way. Thousands arrive every month, hundreds die on the way, we spend a fortune on looking after these people, and the genuine refugees who do the right thing and go through the regular channels, are increasingly disadvantaged by those who pay for passage on the boats. It's far worse than anything in the Howard years, and say what you will about the Pacific Solution, it had the twin benefits of reducing deaths in transit to zero and lifting the total refugee intake. We selected those we wanted, put them on a plane and looked after them.
But, to listen to Gillard, none of the failures in her policy can be laid at her feet. It's the fault of the High Court, the Opposition, foreign governments, the weather... Julia, you're holding the reins. You have your fingers on the remote. You are in charge. Be honest about failures and we'll forgive them. We're all human, we all make mistakes.
Then there's the environmental policy. The economy is strong because we're digging up coal and shipping it off to China to burn. We can see the pollution in Chinese air, we can see the fortunes being made by the coal-mining companies and the Obeids. But what do we get? A complex scheme limited to Australia, and no acceptance of the fact that we as a nation are getting rich off fossil fuels.
I don't have any confidence that Tony Abbott will be a better leader. But I reckon he'll be a lot more honest and straightforward about his mistakes. I want a leader and a government I can trust.
). It might not be "ladylike", but Gillard got to where she is by the same method that every other political leader did - by having the numbers and taking her chance. Probably also fair to note that Rudd got rather caned in the spill last year too, so there doesn't seem to be a lot of buyer's regret in the ALP.
