Oz Federal Election 2013 - Discussion and Comments

[awilcockson]

Re: Where will you be election day (September 14th)

On a final note, we really do need to have fixed term parliaments with a four year term. It works in the majority of Australian states and stops all of this speculation and time wasting.

Now there's something I think we can all agree on!

 

[Skyring]

IMHO she was not voted in by the public the independents gave her the express pass to The Lodge.

Both sides fell short of a majority. Gillard was better at negotiating with the Independents than Abbott. Simple as that.

 

[blackcat20]

Re: Where will you be election day (September 14th)

Have you ever considered sticking to, or checking, the facts rather than misrepresenting them and/or hiding behind smoke and mirrors? e.g. Abbott NEVER told the nation about his daughters' virginity. That was just another fraudulent Labor construct - why don't you check out youtube for what he really said?! Don't you realise how puerile it sounds to try and excuse Gillard's multitude of failures on the basis that some people (predominantly women I might add) have criticised her dress sense? On the evidence it would be virtually impossible for her to do a "perfectly good job of leading" because she has demonstrated repeatedly that she is irrational, illogical, incompetent and deceitful. In short she is just plain incapable.

I think you're meant to attack the argument, not me (my bold above)...

Regardless, it's the impression that a lot of people got (there was a printed article in a magazine as well), and when it comes to politics, thats what counts more than truth...

Anyway, I think I'm backing out of this one. Your opinion wont change, and neither will mine...

 

[serfty]

...

But i'm not rusted on either. I have supported both sides in recent state elections so i can be swayed.

Well, I have posted this before, but no major party will get my primary vote - thereby saving the people of Australia ~$5!

Current funding rate - Australian Electoral Commission

 

[browski]

I really like Julia's work and I really like the outcomes of the current parliament. I like:
The NDIS
The Royal Commisson into Child abuse
The implementation of a Carbon price
The TAX REFORM - simply amazing; most people don't even now need to put in a tax return.
Love NAPLAN
Love MRRT (really wish we could up the income from this)
Really like Super going from 9% to 12%.
Looking forward to the republic.
Don't like either refugee scheme. (Wish the Libs would just propose to remove their signature from the UNHCR treaty..........they really don't want asylum seekers)

Tony seems quite stupid and Malcolm appears more intelligent. If the Libs get their house in order and do the swap, then maybe they are a chance. Tony could still get in but I like Julia as the value bet.

 

[Fruitcake]

Particularly the bit about how Australia forms a government.

Well, that bit's easy. The Governor General appoints some people to be Ministers of State. There's no requirement for them to be leaders of a political party.

Of course, it tends to be helpful if the GG chooses people who have a reasonable chance of maintaining a functional Government for at least a few months.

 

[browski]

Well, that bit's easy. The Governor General appoints some people to be Ministers of State.

Ahhhhh, that is not true at all; why would you write such a thing?

 

[Skyring]

Re: Where will you be election day (September 14th)

The NBN is essential to this country and its future productivity. It must be continued.

The 'carbon tax' is for the future of Australia and a long term requirement. To abolish it would show that the Liberal party is focused on the short term rather having a vision for Australia.

On a final note, we really do need to have fixed term parliaments with a four year term. It works in the majority of Australian states and stops all of this speculation and time wasting.

The NBN is a dismal failure so far, with some very dodgy numbers being pushed to make it seem better than it is. The number of houses "passed" by the NBN is not much of an indication if the residents aren't subscribing. Or, as in many cases, the houses aren't even built! Besides, I think that the NBN will be used by most people to watch television online and to download even more pirated material. cough outlets will love it.

The carbon tax is a political solution, not a practical one. It has minimal impact on carbon emissions, takes a lot of administration and ignores the main problem. Australia is a drop in the bucket, but we're exporting coal like nobody's business, where it is burnt overseas, adding to the global CO2 total. As a nation, we are responsible for a lot of China's emissions. What we should be doing is switching to nuclear power. Then we'd drop our per-capita emissions to the same level as the rest of the developed world. Our real problem is that we are dependent on fossil fuels and if we addressed that effectively, our economy would be in serious trouble.

As for fixed four year terms, these have been rejected by the people at referendum time and again. I'm dead against longer terms, for the simple reason is that it gives the voters fewer chances to have an input. That's less democracy. So often we see the States lumbered with rotten governments that scrape home and are then installed for four years of incompetence and corruption before the inevitable booting-out.

I don't like to see too much tampering with the electoral system. I really like our compulsory voting system, because it ensures that "the little people" get to have a say. You might live under a bridge, but your vote carries as much weight as the millionaire who doesn't have to worry about his next meal. We're a democracy, that means we base our governance on the people, rather than power elites.

 

[777]

Well, I have posted this before, but no major party will get my primary vote - thereby saving the people of Australia ~$5!

Current funding rate - Australian Electoral Commission

I'm actually completely with you on that one. I'm a big believer in preferential voting and i like to use it.

 

[dfcatch]

And I wonder if Tony Abbott will be held to the same standard as Julia Gillard? I doubt it. He will find all sorts of reasons why he cannot implement his policies and the demand that he be forgiven for not doing what he promised. He will lie as do all politicians. As did John Howard with his 'core' and 'non-core' promises.

That assumes he is actually opposition leader when the election writs are issued in August. The early nomination of the date by a government he has never recognised as being legitimate, means that now he has to increase his personal popularity. Tony Abbott has repeatedly called for an election, now he has his wish. I suggest he should be careful what he wants because he might just get it.

The Liberal party actually has a timeline to say to him, improve your performance or we'll replace you. Malcom Turnbull is far more popular and would quickly overtake the PM in personal popularity stakes.

There are some major issues facing Australia in the next few years, "boat people" aka refugees will increase substantially. The push factors from Afghanistan will increase substantially and nothing will stop the flow for many years. Look at Sri Lanka as an example. When they arrive en masse watch Tony Abbott blame the previous government when it is external factors causing the increase.

One thing not acknowledged by many people is that the government has actually implemented its legislative agenda despite having to deal with the independent members. Tony Abbott couldn't have done this, he tried and failed to even engage them let alone work with them productively.

The NBN is essential to this country and its future productivity. It must be continued.

The 'carbon tax' is for the future of Australia and a long term requirement. To abolish it would show that the Liberal party is focused on the short term rather having a vision for Australia.

The mining tax was crippled and should have been allowed to be implemented in a better form.

On a final note, we really do need to have fixed term parliaments with a four year term. It works in the majority of Australian states and stops all of this speculation and time wasting.

HVR - I respect your views but simply can not agree with most of your conclusions.

Regardless of your (or my) personal views on any individual policy or position - it doesn't affect the outcome.

You may support the carbon tax for example, but a significant percentage of voters don't - this presents a simple mathematical problem to your position.

One fantasy that I must put to rest is the issue of Malcolm Turnbull.

Tony Abbott will be leader of the party at the election date (failing any serious personal or health issues).
There will be no challenge. TA does not have to lift his personal standing a single point.
Remember that TA brought the coalition united and to an election winning lead and has held it... Something Turnbull never did.
Turnbull is popular amongst the very people who will not change the election outcome.
All that has to happen is a single electorate to fall to the Coalition - without the ALP gaining one.

Given that both Lyne and New England are almost certain Coalition wins, and any lucky ALP gains elsewhere will almost certainly be offset by equal Coalition wins as well......

It is a near mathematical certainty as to the election result.

And as far as TA personal standing goes.... Those that are concerned by him didn't vote for him last time, and those that did vote for him don't have a problem.

So the whole anti-TA strategy is a firewall strategy at best, but it won't be enough to actually hold seats. (It may temper the landslide though).

 

[Skyring]

Well, I have posted this before, but no major party will get my primary vote - thereby saving the people of Australia ~$5!

That's my strategy too. I always vote for some minor party or an independent. Saves a teeny bit of public money, and encourages the little guys.

 

[dfcatch]

You might want to read up on the Australian constitution while you're at it... Particularly the bit about how Australia forms a government.

You might like the challenge of educating 99% of the electorate while you're at it

Perception is reality - no point in fighting it!

 

[Fruitcake]

You might like the challenge of educating 99% of the electorate while you're at it

Those around in 1975 (alas I was not among them) got the lesson pretty quickly :!:.

 

[777]

And as far as TA personal standing goes.... Those that are concerned by him didn't vote for him last time, and those that did vote for him don't have a problem.

I'd mostly agree with your analysis but disagree with this bit based on the pure numbers.

Last poll i saw (newspoll) had the Coalition primary on 44% and the TA personal approval at 29%. So a full third of Coalition voters are not happy with him.

It may make no difference given the relative standing of the two parties but Gillard is personally a lot more popular than Abbott -- it's a very low bar by historical standards though.

 

[Skyring]

Well, that bit's easy. The Governor General appoints some people to be Ministers of State. There's no requirement for them to be leaders of a political party.

Section 64. They don't even have to be MPs, if you read the last sentence.

Having said that, conventions bind the Governor-General. Appointing a government that cannot hold the confidence of the Representatives is a recipe for failure and disaster. Such a government could not win a vote in the House and could not get much real work done. Appointing a government that was not supported by its own party would be even worse. We've had minority governments before, and the second Parliament is a case in point, where three more or less equal coalitions each had a go, giving us Reid, Watson and Deakin as Prime Ministers within the one term before an election was finally held.

As a democracy, we've survived minority governments and other crises. The Governor-General rarely has to worry about who leads the government. The voters supply the raw numbers and the representatives work it out amongst themselves. a much better system than having one person, regardless of how well-regarded they are, simply choose a bunch of people to be the government.

 

[dfcatch]

I'd mostly agree with your analysis but disagree with this bit based on the pure numbers.

Last poll i saw (newspoll) had the Coalition primary on 44% and the TA personal approval at 29%. So a full third of Coalition voters are not happy with him.

It may make no difference given the relative standing of the two parties but Gillard is personally a lot more popular than Abbott -- it's a very low bar by historical standards though.

I would agree with your assessment.

Except that those "Coalition voters who don't like him" - are still Coalition voters.

So whilst it may seem odd (or at least a bit of a "slap in the face"), he doesn't technically need to improve his numbers in order to win.

One additional facet that the polls don't show that I think will be instrumental in the election result...... Voters will not like another close result.

Paradoxically - whilst the polling will tighten between now and the election - I think the actual result will be overwhelming.

And as interesting as all our views are, and as fascinating as the analyses are, it all comes down to the age old truism.....

Oppositions don't win elections - Governments lose them.

And love them or hate them - this government is on the nose.

Everything in between now and judgement day is just Spakfilla

 

[777]

It makes absolutely no difference to the formation of government but FWIW the ALP did actually win the 2 party preferred vote in the last Federal election: Cookies must be enabled. | The Australian

 

[drron]

It makes absolutely no difference to the formation of government but FWIW the ALP did actually win the 2 party preferred vote in the last Federal election: Cookies must be enabled. | The Australian

And of course Al gore did so in the US in 2000.Always going to be a problem when you have separate states/seats whose results are independent of each other.

 

[amaroo]

It makes absolutely no difference to the formation of government but FWIW the ALP did actually win the 2 party preferred vote in the last Federal election: Cookies must be enabled. | The Australian

Didn't amount for much back in 1998.....always liked KB!

[In the October 1998 election, Labor polled a majority of the two-party vote and received the largest swing to a first-term opposition since 1934. However, due to the uneven nature of the swing, Labor came up eight seats short of making Beazley Prime Minister.]

 

[codash1099]

The fuss over announcing 8 months out is a bit overblown. I we had fixed date elections we'd know 3 years out.

However this is a good thread to stay away from, so I won't respond to any comments.