Oz Federal Election 2013 - Discussion and Comments

[Skyring]

…the media are never interested in telling us when both benches agree. So there are many things that they have both agreed on that we never hear about. There simply isn't time.

What makes media stories interesting - in fact, what makes every story interesting - is conflict. We watch, enthralled, to see who will triumph. Macbeth? Keating? Rudd?

It's basic human nature.

Stories of agreement on economic programs. ***yawn***

Gillard and Abbott snarling at each other, fighting and growling over a juicy morsel of Craig Thomson. ***yeah!***

When the Opposition opposes, it makes headlines, because it grabs eyeballs.

 

[drron]

I'm an NBN guinea pig both at home and work and it's been the biggest boon to my productivity in a decade. It probably saves me several hours a week of time that would otherwise be spent waiting for data to move around. Our neighbourhood has very quickly become home to all manner of IT dependent businesses who are chasing the productivity gains and competitive advantage.

I'm away from home in a hotel today and it simply serves to remind me how slow, cludgy and annoying most internet connections are.

However case reports are an unreliable evidence base.Tend to be the extremes of experiences.There really isn't a great lot of evidence that fast broadband increases productivity-
Australia

As well it is said that Australia's productivity is greater than Japan and South Korea which are a long way down the fast broadband track.Source Julia Gillard in speech to AIG cnference 2012.

 

[TheRealTMA]

A recent poll showed that 76% of the journalists responsible for 82% of news stories for major sources made up their own statistics over 50% of the time!
Or something like that.

Actually, I may have made some of those statistics up.

Statistically, six out of seven dwarfs are not Happy.

 

[Pushka]

Again I DID NOT say they have to agree with everything. But there role is not to oppose everything. As you outline they should play a constructive role. Instead on important issues this opposition has been more interested in political advantage. eg The opposition simply opposed the government on asylum seekers. They did not question, query or refute the government position. They simply said NO.

But they dont disagree with everything. Otherwise there would never be any legislation passed. We just dont get to hear about it as it just passes through Parliament. Boring stuff.
The Libs have made their opinion clear many many times over the asylum seeker policies promulgated by Labor, so if Gillard presents the same old same old, then it saves a lot of time, just saying no.

What makes media stories interesting - in fact, what makes every story interesting - is conflict. We watch, enthralled, to see who will triumph. Macbeth? Keating? Rudd?
<snip>
When the Opposition opposes, it makes headlines, because it grabs eyeballs.

Exactly.

 

[eastwest101]

Saw this elsewhere and wasn't sure if this was the correct place or if it should be in the 'A bit of humour thread'...


ALP Problem Solving Matrix / Spin Cycle (copyright McTernan 2013)

Step Action
1. Oh no – we have a problem with our polls/budget/policy or <insert latest ALP bungle here>!
2. Blame Tony Abbott.
3. Blame Kevin Rudd.
4. Blame the State governments.
5. Blame Twiggy Forrest or Gina Reinhart.
6. Blame the media.
7. Blame the Greens/Independents.
8. Blame the business community.
9. Blame the current leader and replace them with someone else (optional).
10. Personally attack your opponents (or genuine doubters) with claims of misogyny/denier.
11. Commission an enquiry/review into the problem, ignore all the findings if inconvenient.
12. Come up with an interventionist thought bubble that flies in the face of reality/economics.
13. Roll out an advertising campaign.
14. Slice and dice the electorate into “winners” and “losers” of your policy.
15. Ensure most of the “winners” are in marginal ALP or Independent seats.
16. When questioned - claim its commercial in confidence information or a matter before the courts.
17. Try pea & thimble tricks to disguise tax rises as “Budget saves”.
18. Concede that you may actually have to consult with the stakeholders.
19. Make some sort of arrangement to get legislation through with all sorts of unintended consequences.
20. Find that this new solution does not work.
21. Go back to Step 1 - rinse and repeat.

 

[browski]

I was listening to a political commentator yesterday, I think from University, who said that Gillard had committed a potentially fatal error in announcing the election date, as she has promoted Abbott to be considered as Alternative PM rather than Leader of the Opposition, and that is a big mental shift.

Yeah, but that sword cuts both ways.

When Latham was up against Howard, even though the people hated Howard, the spectre of Latham worried them more.
When Howard went up against Rudd, (the people still hated Howard) the people viewed Rudd as "mostly harmless"; so he got the nod.
When Abbott went up against Gillard; even though Gillard wasn't really popular; the spectre of Abbott worried them more; so Abbott lost.
So now we have Gillard who's ALP is not very popular and it remains to be seen if the spectre of Abbott concerns the people. The polls show Abbott well ahead; but by calling an election date; the people will start to consider exactly how much they hate Abbott. Julia is better on her feet than Tony, and Julia is a far more shrewd operator. It's a good move by Julia, but that does not mean it's a winning move.

A week is a long time in politics; September is an eternity.

 

[serfty]

To be honest I really can't perceive consistent "Hate" of "Abbott" in the general populace and certainly not amongst the 5% of voters the parties are actually scrambling for.

I saw similar attitude when Abbott replaced Malcolm Turnbull with plenty of smirky comment at the time from government representatives regarding Abbott as of leader of the opposition. [As in "what a joke! ... Tony Abbott? Ha! The liberals are stuffed!"]

Those smirks soon changed to grimaces as the opposition's popularity almost immediately began to increase at the expense of the government's.

 

[browski]

There's no doubt that Tony has his admirers; my 76 year old mum loves him. But then she also loved Peter Slipper.

 

[Pushka]

Giving the election date gives Abbott a chance to come out of the opposition role. Which he has been doing. He doesn't need to be negative anymore because the Greens and the Labor party, along with Ruddy, are doing that nicely themselves. And Gillard complaining about the Greens today is just an example. It's Labor who is looking negative now.

 

[casanovawa]

The problem for Julia is that on a weekly, if not almost daily basis, Labor are reminding us all what a dysfunctional rabble they are... The Libs only have to present themselves as a small target and the Government is coming apart at the seams and from within... You don't have to look like much of an alternative to trump what they are doing now, and what they have done to themselves and us for the last 3 years... (sorry if this sounds too emotive)

As for asylum seeker legislation, they called Howard and the Libs every rotten name under the sun for the period he was in (for which they lost me and many giving them the benefit of the doubt when they were so vitriolic and spiteful), only to try and come up with their own solution because they pandered to all the bleeding hearts and what did they end up with?? Something similar if not worse, which cost a lot more money to get back to square one and a bunch of lives, exactly how many who knows??? The Libs were having to make it up as they went along under all the boats that were arriving and eventually found a compromise that seemed to work, not perfect but under the pressure of what was happening you can understand it they ahd to make it up as they went along... To see the results and then throw it all away only to come back full circle AND look like utter hypocrites in the bargain deserves to pilloried long and loud... Oh and the Malaysia solution where we agreed to take 4,000 and ended up sending none was it, if that isn't one of the stupidest bits of policy on the run that i have ever heard of i don't know what is... And the opposition was meant to help the govt get out of their own bind were they??

I also never said Labor didn't do anything right previously, every government builds somewhat on the term behind, but when Howard came in what were we in $96 billion of debt was it, back when that was a large figure so there's a balance between what some of the good things Keating did and the state of how he left the country... What debt we will be in now will put that in the shade of course... At least under Keating if you were someone who lost out, and plenty did, you could argue that some important reforms were enacted and things actually achieved, under this lot i can see very little for the people who ended up getting the pointy end of the stick... And I just hope the NBN doesn't end up becoming a massive lemon as technology investments often do as we all move forward...

And as for Howard staying around too long, he would probably acknowledge it himself, he even said he was wanting to leave a bit before he did, it was just the unfortunate dynamic between him and Costello that had built up around that period that had him not being able to leave and have it seem he was pushed, because of concerns for legacy and pride etc, he is hardly the first that will have gotten caught up in a situation not completely of his control, who knows what would have happened if a reasonable hand over could be achieved... And as for Howard being only the second PM to lose his seat and the looks of triumph on Kev's and Maxine's face, fast forward 3 years and see how pyrhic (sp) that victory turned out for them both...

 

[simongr]

And then mainly for downloading cough and pirated movies.

And the Walking Dead.

 

[browski]

Giving the election date gives Abbott a chance to come out of the opposition role. Which he has been doing. He doesn't need to be negative anymore because the Greens and the Labor party, along with Ruddy, are doing that nicely themselves. And Gillard complaining about the Greens today is just an example. It's Labor who is looking negative now.

Yeah......Abbott coming out of the Opposition role worked a treat at the last election, too. Just in case you forgot, here he is in all his glory: Abbott Campaigns Through The Night | federal Election 2010

 

[Pushka]

Yeah......Abbott coming out of the Opposition role worked a treat at the last election, too. Just in case you forgot, here he is in all his glory: Abbott Campaigns Through The Night | federal Election 2010

You said 6 months is a long time in politics. That was almost 3 years ago. And unlike Gillard, he has learnt from past mistakes.

 

[casanovawa]

Tony can be bagged all you like, the amazing thing was that in one term Labor managed to go from a comprehensive win over the Libs with their time for a change nonsense and getting rid of the 'hated' Howard to barely scraping in in a minority govt 3 years later... And while they were imploding the Libs also had their problems with leadership changes etc in that term as well... Not sure any Govt has gone from such highs to such lows so quickly... Without trying to introduce a major tax like Howard did which cost the Libs a bunch of seats but at least he had the balls to campaign on it...

Oh and truth be told, in a perfect world Tony probably wouldn't be my first choice either, but we have been living in far from a perfect world for some time now, so anyone else will do than the current mob...

 

[eastwest101]

Yeah, but that sword cuts both ways.

When Latham was up against Howard, even though the people hated Howard, the spectre of Latham worried them more.
When Howard went up against Rudd, (the people still hated Howard) the people viewed Rudd as "mostly harmless"; so he got the nod.
When Abbott went up against Gillard; even though Gillard wasn't really popular; the spectre of Abbott worried them more; so Abbott lost.

If you are saying that Abbott is un-electable then I refer you: whom was the leader of the federal opposition in 1996? Apparently he was un-electable as well! And I agree with you that Latham worried the electorate but there were other factors, and Rudd basically just fell into office in 2007 based on - wait for it - a small target campaign of Howard-lite conducted in good economic times. The 2010 election really had no winners that I can think of - certainly not Abbott or Gillard and definately not Rudd or Turnbull.....

Anyway - history is just one tool we all use to justify our own arguments, anyone can rewrite it to suit their argument (a bit like statistics).

So now we have Gillard who's ALP is not very popular and it remains to be seen if the spectre of Abbott concerns the people. The polls show Abbott well ahead; but by calling an election date; the people will start to consider exactly how much they hate Abbott. Julia is better on her feet than Tony, and Julia is a far more shrewd operator. It's a good move by Julia, but that does not mean it's a winning move.

A week is a long time in politics; September is an eternity.

It will seem like an eternity to the electorate. As far a a lot of casual observers go - the ALP is now dysfunctional and has reverted to "Leadership Crisis" mode of talking about themselves and the alternative opposition are running a small target campaign and the opposition (like every opposition since the Hewson defeat) will be reluctant to release too much policy detail - but they will need to build on the doubts of the electorate about the ALP and transition from just "positive" to "how we are going to fix stuff".

Appealling to voters by having "rat cunning" or political shrewdness will not be enough to win the next election I am afraid. Obeid, Slipper and Thompson were all probably admired for their "rat cunning".

 

[drron]

Hate is a very strong word and I doubt most people did not hate Howard,Latham or Keating and just because Abbott until now has been less popular than Gillard as preferred PM doesn't mean people hate him.Certainly there are the true believers on both sides who probably do hate whoever is on the other side and as they tend to mix with like minded people which reinforces their opinion.

Over the last 40 years I have met a lot of political leaders and the only one I dislike is Paul Keating.I dont mind Mark Latham at all.I was a Campaign director for the Liberals in a Federal seat in the 80s.My opposite number was Mark Latham The fellow I got to know was not as he is painted now.I think I even liked him.
I haven't met Tony Abbott but have corresponded with him as Health minister and it was obvious he understood my concerns and he did something about it.Another health minister who I corresponded with and who obviously knew where I was coming from was Dr.Blewett.We had a continuing dialogue over several months and I am sure he enjoyed it as I was probably in a small minority of medicos who didn't oppose anything he did.

 

[browski]

Tony can be bagged all you like, the amazing thing was that in one term Labor managed to go from a comprehensive win over the Libs with their time for a change nonsense and getting rid of the 'hated' Howard to barely scraping in in a minority govt 3 years later... And while they were imploding the Libs also had their problems with leadership changes etc in that term as well... Not sure any Govt has gone from such highs to such lows so quickly... Without trying to introduce a major tax like Howard did which cost the Libs a bunch of seats but at least he had the balls to campaign on it...

Makes you wonder really how Tony lost.

 

[browski]

The 2010 election really had no winners that I can think of - certainly not Abbott or Gillard and definately not Rudd or Turnbull.....

I'm pretty sure Julia won. (Certainly Sports tab paid out on my ticket; I doubt they'd give away money for free.)

 

[drron]

Yeah......Abbott coming out of the Opposition role worked a treat at the last election, too. Just in case you forgot, here he is in all his glory: Abbott Campaigns Through The Night | federal Election 2010

I'm worried.Do you really think that is a great piece of journalism?Says diddely squat and all i got out of it was that Katarine Murphy didn't like Tony Abbott.

 

[casanovawa]

Makes you wonder really how Tony lost.

I thought it was obvious how Tony lost, you had a bunch of independents who for their own political benefit thought they could get within a bulls roar of the levers of power rather than just being a bunch of non entities consigned to making up the numbers and being ignored...

They came together as odd bed fellows out of expediency after a charade of weighing up both options and fell in together because they knew if they chose to go with the Libs this dysfunctional minority nonsense could probably have been measured in months (as it should've been) before another general election would have been called and the Australian people given another chance and i think we could make an educated guess at what the result would have been...

That just based on how fearful this pack have been of going back and putting it to the test to get a mandate from the peopl they claim to serve, and so indulging in every sort of half baked and contrived schemes to cling to power no matter how noxious some of the characters involved were... That to me speaks volumes as to what they thought the result would have been had they tested it (whilst their Labor State colleagues were being used to wipe the floor with), and it has sullied the Labor party, some of its leading members and probably the Parliament in geneal as to what wretched games and contortions have had to been used to get this term to of Government to almost the end of its natural life...