Oz Federal Election 2013 - Discussion and Comments

[BrentH]

... or a succesfull defence of say NSW alone could change the result drastically.

You're right in what you say (because trends tend to be consistent on a state-by-state basis) - although they don't call it "the NSW disease" for nothing... If the ALP is on the nose anywhere, it's there.


If you assume Katter keeps his seat, Labor picks up Denison from Wilke (VERY unlikely based on last election's results + current polling), and the rest of the Independent seats go to the Coalition.. then start looking at the polls...

The most recent state-by-state breakdown (Newspoll Quarterly Nov 2012) sees the the split 84/64 in favor of the Coalition + 2 independents... The equivalent of a 2pp of 52.5% in favor of the Coalition.

The most recent poll (Nielsen) suggests things have deteriorated to 100/48 + 2... A 2pp equivalent of 56% in favor of the Coalition - a 3.5% blow out.

If you assume each state votes along the lines laid out in the most recent state-by-state polling breakdown by Newspoll, that the 3.5% poll blow out has been applied evenly across the board, and you work it backwards from there...

The ALP would need an 14.3% 2pp swing towards them from current polling in NSW to be re-elected with 75 seats (still technically a hung parliament, since there is no absolute majority of seats).

Or they'd need 13.9% in Victoria.

Or they need a 7% National swing from where they polled in the last Nielsen poll.

I went through historic polls...

It's easy for governments to be the victims of a 7% swing - for example, Whitlam managed to get a 7% against him within 1 month in 1974...

But it's rare for governments to be the benefactors of a 7% swing.

The only example I can see in the past 60 years of a Government being returned from such dismal polling, or getting a 7% swing within 5 months was Howard in 2001.

It parallels nicely with what's going on here (check out Peter Brent's blog post for The Australian here: Cookies must be enabled. | The Australian)

The differences:

• ALP/Gillard has been in the doldrums for much longer
• Howard didn't have to deal with a hung parliament
• Howard benefited from Tampa and September 11th
• Howard wasn't hit by leadership speculation. The Coalition showed unity.

In the words of Peter Brent:

Can this government claw its way back into contention and snatch a heroic election win in September? In my opinion there is close to zero chance of that happening. This government lacks the authority, and perceived economic credentials, to stage a recovery.
They—Julia Gillard and Wayne Swan—are all but unre-electable.

Anyway...

Sportsbet is showing $1.15 for a Coalition win... Remind me: Which credit cards offer points on gambling transactions?

 

[Pushka]

So now the Labor leadership is settled...........?
.

You really think so? The story is far from finished.

 

[amaroo]

Ferguson is another leaving the sinking ship. Starting to look like no one of substance wants to stand next to Gillard & Swan anymore.

Like his comments regarding ceasing the policy of pre-selecting party hacks & unionist.......the ALP is going to miss him on the front bench.

 

[eastwest101]

Ferguson is another leaving the sinking ship. Starting to look like no one of substance wants to stand next to Gillard & Swan anymore.

Like his comments regarding ceasing the policy of pre-selecting party hacks & unionist.......the ALP is going to miss him on the front bench.

Martin Fergusen was totally sandbagged/excluded from the original RSPT debacle and then from the MRRT negotiations as well so no surprise there, his heart just wasn't in it anymore after that, except for a few funny moments that upset the greens. He knows that they are headed for the opposition benches.

 

[BrentH]

the ALP is going to temporarily miss him on the front bench.

Fixed that for you.

No risk of him losing his seat... And I can't imagine many of the thin figures from among Gillard's supporters in the lower house being a particularly effective opposition team.

He will be back on the front bench in a shadow ministerial role. Perhaps Small Business? Far better than Kareoke Craig.

 

[lightie]

Re: Where will you be election day (September 14th)

I never knew FF.com.au was a political Blog? To say I am disappointed is an understatement. I come onto this blog to seek information about flying not politics!

 

[markis10]

Re: Where will you be election day (September 14th)

I never knew FF.com.au was a political Blog? To say I am disappointed is an understatement. I come onto this blog to seek information about flying not politics!

You might be even more dissapointed to find out its a forum, not a blog, where we have a playground to cover things in life not related to frequent flying!

 

[BrentH]

Re: Where will you be election day (September 14th)

I never knew FF.com.au was a political Blog? To say I am disappointed is an understatement. I come onto this blog to seek information about flying not politics!

Perhaps stay out of "off topic" threads then?

 

[Pushka]

Something about the word "playground" may have given a warning? Ouch, this is definitely off topic. .

 

[casanovawa]

The only example I can see in the past 60 years of a Government being returned from such dismal polling, or getting a 7% swing within 5 months was Howard in 2001.

It parallels nicely with what's going on here (check out Peter Brent's blog post for The Australian here: Cookies must be enabled. | The Australian)

The differences:

• ALP/Gillard has been in the doldrums for much longer
• Howard didn't have to deal with a hung parliament
• Howard benefited from Tampa and September 11th
• Howard wasn't hit by leadership speculation. The Coalition showed unity.

How far back would you need to go to find any parallel to what has been happening here for the last few years???

You could probably pick times when parts of the problems have occurred:

Leadership stirrings (Hawke v Keating, Howard vs Costello) H v K was debillitating for about 6 months or so between the two challenges but fairly quickly resolved, H v C maybe for the latter half everyone knew Costello would like the job, but no silly kamikaze attacks were attempted so not nearly as bad as at present, never a really if you can't govern yourself situation, an i can't remember anywhere near the vitriol directed at wounding all candidates... Its not even this bad usually when opposition parties try to decide on a leader, let along Govts...

Navel gazing and talking about their own problems rather than visionary plans for the nation - Closely tied to the previous point, but has been 4 years straight now of internal jockeying, media leaking, discussions on internal factional processes, etc?? She has come out with a few 'somewhat visionary' policies, but the problem is as she trumpets them, they were mostly what the Aust people didn't really want or sounded good but have become duds so the more you mention them the less it does for her/them...

An ability shoot themselves in the foot - Can't remember any govt that has scored so many own goals in such a short time, Hawke/Keating maybe over 14 years, Howard/Costello maybe over 11?? Gough did a pretty good job over 3 years but i read more about him in the history books than lived through it???

Farce of a hung Parliament - Well its been 60 years or so hasn't it, lets hope its at least that long again...

Slimy characters - Yes there's been the odd whiff, i can't remember them being quite as bad as Slipper and Thompson, but Ros's whiteboard, Reith's son running up the phone bills?? Nothing sticks out quite as much as these two current clowns, but most Govts have never been so wedded to the numbers because of the hung Parliament farce that they have had to cling on to them and try and ignore the rather obvious odour for years... Gough's ministers may not have covered themselves in glory i suppose??

So when i try to think back there were elements of this Govt, but hard to recall a Govt where they all happened so consistently and together... If TA wasn't leading the Libs and someone a bit more electorally popular was it would be an annhilation... It may still be...

 

[james4321]

If TA wasn't leading the Libs and someone a bit more electorally popular was it would be an annhilation.

I think you are absolutely right ... TA will win in spite of him being the less odorous of 2 pretty rotten alternatives - what will be interesting will be to see how long it takes for the agitation to get rid of him to start ... methinks not very long.

 

[casanovawa]

My rough take on TA is that similar to JG he was a fairly solid minister in a fairly demanding portfolio of Health during the Howard years... I think JG is a good example of how a solid minister doesn't always translate to a solid PM, maybe under different circumstances she might have made a better fist of it, but its just been dismal so far... Hopefully Tony will have a more solid base of support which can only help...

I don't necessariy have any reason to expect TA not to be a good PM, but he does carry a bit of baggage obviously but a lot more of it is perceived than real i would imagine (he hates women, hates the poor, hates workers, hates gays etc, etc, etc) Which he obviously doesn't... I guess he doesn't have the easy, smooth nature that you might like but maybe many opposition leaders don't have that on assuming the job and instead grow into it???

But we have managed to get ourselves into a bit of a mess here and its going to take mroe than luck to get us back on the straight and narrow... I don't think he deserves it totally out of default (as in anything has to be better than what we have) but he will have a bit of proving to do once he gets it more than likely in September and will have a job ahead of him to unwind if he can what labor has done with a shot budget and a heap of debt...

 

[tgh]

I'm not so 1 eyed as not to see the perception molehills blown up into mountains by his detractors.
I choose to believe that he will actually be a very good PM and that history will view his long incumbency very kindly..

 

[Skyring]

I'm not so 1 eyed as not to see the perception molehills blown up into mountains by his detractors.
I choose to believe that he will actually be a very good PM and that history will view his long incumbency very kindly..

it's hard to imagine that anybody could screw things up quite so much as Gillard.

 

[11sjw]

it's hard to imagine that anybody could screw things up quite so much as Gillard.

Gough seemed to do a pretty good job of it. Not many a PM gets sacked.

 

[casanovawa]

Well didn't she parachute some sort of relative of her or her partner (or is Shorten in the mix somehow, have forgotten and can't be bothered looking it up) into the GG position to make sure that never happened again??

But yes Gough certainly was a cracker from what i have heard (i was born the year after he took power so not really there to experience it)

 

[Pushka]

Bill Shortens Mother in Law is the GG but it happened naturally. We predicted Shorten had a rosy future as he was really prominent when the three miners were stuck in the shaft in Tasmania. He presented very well in a tragic situation.

Gough Whitlam was a legend.

 

[Hvr]

Gough seemed to do a pretty good job of it. Not many a PM gets sacked.

Although if the grubby corrupt Bjelke-Peterson had followed standard procedure when filling a Senate vacancy then the possibility of the dismissal wouldn't have arisen. Some people will do anything for power.

If we're looking at leaving with ignominy then surely losing your seat would have to rank up there, still Howard made history being only the second PM in history to suffer that fate.

 

[Pushka]

If we're looking at leaving with ignominy then surely losing your seat would have to rank up there, still Howard made history being only the second PM in history to suffer that fate.

Don't you make history by being the first not the second?

And the next election? Much to Maxine's distress it seems like it was a one trick pony.

 

[whatmeworry]

Isn't Perth/WA funding Australia at the moment? And if the state you live in determines your cred in this forum, well, that's just sad.

WA has been funded by the rest of OZ for 2 centuries, about time you guys repay the favour.