Oz Federal Election 2013 - Discussion and Comments

[drron]

......and you provide the extremism of the worst kind.

At least amaroo has contact with reality unlike some here.

 

[Skyring]

Too many people still think the sun shines out of Tony when he bends over.

Meh, that's democracy.

 

[Skyring]

On the subject of democracy, one of the great strengths of Australia's system is that we have a universal preferential secret ballot. Everyone votes, even those whose interests and opinions do not align with those of the elites. It's done in private. There's no test, no right or wrong answers. We just tally up he totals.

And, the thing I love most of all is that votes aren't wasted by voting for someone unlikely to win a majority. We can actually encourage the independents and minors. If they don't get up, then we have to rank one major party candidate ahead of another, and our choice gets counted that way.

Everyone has a different opinion on politics, they are never all going to be one united view, and it's delusional or misguided to berate or ridicule others for not sharing your opinion. If some of those posting here would accept that other members of the forum have differing views, then we'd get along together much more harmoniously, even when - especially when - we differ.

To me, this is just stating the plain and obvious. I don't want to sound patronising, but it is embarrassing to read some of the comments here. I get the feeling that some honestly believe that their personal political views are better than those of others.

It doesn't matter one little bit in the long run. When it comes to voting, it's private, we can vote whichever way we want for whatever reason - hair colour has been mentioned - and the result is determined by tallying up the results. Everybody's vote counts for the same value.

 

[Alanslegal]

The ALP may soon be wiped out come September 2013 but for the town of Whyalla, you show some resilience you old town. After Tony declared that you will be dead and buried come July 2012, you are still here come today.

 

[Pushka]

I have not heard ANY political commentator, whether with Left or right leanings, to report anything other than a sense of shame about yesterday's antics. And now there is even less talent in the Ministry as they resign or are sacked. How any Labor supporter can gain any sense of comfort from what happened yesterday is staggering.

 

[11sjw]

I have not heard ANY political commentator, whether with Left or right leanings, to report anything other than a sense of shame about yesterday's antics. And now there is even less talent in the Ministry as they resign or are sacked. How any Labor supporter can gain any sense of comfort from what happened yesterday is staggering.

Not sure it is solely ALP supporters that should be disgusted with the antics of our parliament.

 

[Alanslegal]

How any Labor supporter can gain any sense of comfort from what happened yesterday is staggering.

No comfort however lesser of two evils. I am very very afraid of Tony. Quite a few says give us Malcolm .... however I'd even go a step further, and would vote for Joe or Julie any day of the week but with Tony (No) Abbott(litity) at the helm, forget it from my view.

 

[browski]

I have not heard ANY political commentator, whether with Left or right leanings, to report anything other than a sense of shame about yesterday's antics.

There is a huge rumour running around the parliament that News Limited are going to make a statement today apologizing for writing bollocks these last 5 years.

 

[Pushka]

Not sure it is solely ALP supporters that should be disgusted with the antics of our parliament.

Well that's true, I'm not currently a labor supporter and I was disgusted that the Government leaders were behaving like that.

 

[SFSC]

I dislike the hype associated with election campaigns. I would be very unlikely to vote for any party that attempts to take any action that would result in the parliament not running its full term and the house and half senate elections becoming out of synchronisation.

After all, what is the hurry? Or is there something about to happen (or become known) before September that we don't know about?

 

[Pushka]

I dislike the hype associated with election campaigns. I would be very unlikely to vote for any party that attempts to take any action that would result in the parliament not running its full term and the house and half senate elections becoming out of synchronisation.

After all, what is the hurry? Or is there something about to happen (or become known) before September that we don't know about?

Parliament started a 6 week recess yesterday, the last time everyone is in Canberra together.

 

[BrentH]

Queen of the damned...

I'll never understand what Rudd did to be so unpopular in Caucus, when it's clear Gillard has such little chance of winning... Or how firing half of the ministerial team right now is helping Gillard to win an election.

I think it was The Age's political editor who said it was the Caucus choosing to take a risk on the election and maintain Union ties vs pick Rudd (who would be a Union risk, and more certain at an election).

It's the most logical explanation I've heard so far...

But still...

In other news - Antony Green's election calculator is out:
Antony Green's Election Calculator - ABC News (Australian Broadcasting Corporation)

Based on the current Nielsen poll (most recent poll results), and factoring in retiring MPs + Independent seats (New England, Lyne and O'Connor to Coalition; Kennedy to Katter; Melbourne to Labor; Wilke keeping Dension), the result is 101 to 49 with 2 independents - and would see the end of Wayne Swan, Peter Garrett, Warren Snowdon, Janelle Saffin, Craig Thomson (well, if he gets preselection), Robert McCleland, and Dr Craig Emerson (whose, as an aside, broke up with his wife shortly "before" beginning a relationship with Julia Gillard, incidentally) - and would put Laurie Ferguson's seat at risk.

I'm looking forward to the next Newspoll on Monday to see the wash-up.

 

[Pushka]

In other news - Antony Green's election calculator is out:
Antony Green's Election Calculator - ABC News (Australian Broadcasting Corporation)
.

Thanks for that, I always wait for Antony's assessment. Pretty much spot on usually.

 

[eastwest101]

Thanks for that, I always wait for Antony's assessment. Pretty much spot on usually.

That is a fun toy - I like how you can customize swings by state and allow for retiring members. I found that by giving uniform but modest 2.5% swings towards the ALP in VIC, SA, TAS & ACT and then giving uniform but modest 2.5% swings towards the Coalition in QLD, NSW & WA then that would pan out with 70 ALP seats, 75 Coalition seats and leave Bandt, Katter, Oakshot, Wilkie and Windsor as independants - if we assume that everyone except Katter would support another ALP government then its plausible for the ALP to retain government. All subject to assumptions though - and an anhilation or a succesfull defence of say NSW alone could change the result drastically.

I suspect that we will see a lot of sandbagging of ALP seats in VIC, SA, TAS and the ACT.

 

[browski]

That is a fun toy - I like how you can customize swings by state and allow for retiring members. I found that by giving uniform but modest 2.5% swings towards the ALP in VIC, SA, TAS & ACT and then giving uniform but modest 2.5% swings towards the Coalition in QLD, NSW & WA then that would pan out with 70 ALP seats, 75 Coalition seats and leave Bandt, Katter, Oakshot, Wilkie and Windsor as independants - if we assume that everyone except Katter would support another ALP government then its plausible for the ALP to retain government. All subject to assumptions though - and an anhilation or a succesfull defence of say NSW alone could change the result drastically.

I suspect that we will see a lot of sandbagging of ALP seats in VIC, SA, TAS and the ACT.

Stop it; you might allow light into the dark.

 

[ComeFlyWithMe]

That is a fun toy - I like how you can customize swings by state and allow for retiring members. I found that by giving uniform but modest 2.5% swings towards the ALP in VIC, SA, TAS & ACT and then giving uniform but modest 2.5% swings towards the Coalition in QLD, NSW & WA then that would pan out with 70 ALP seats, 75 Coalition seats and leave Bandt, Katter, Oakshot, Wilkie and Windsor as independants - if we assume that everyone except Katter would support another ALP government then its plausible for the ALP to retain government. All subject to assumptions though - and an anhilation or a succesfull defence of say NSW alone could change the result drastically.

I suspect that we will see a lot of sandbagging of ALP seats in VIC, SA, TAS and the ACT.

All well and good but I think you grossly underestimate the swings

 

[Hvr]

So now the Labor leadership is settled is it time for a Liberal leadership change?

Be funny if Tony Abbott emulated John Hewson and lost an unlosable election. I reckon that apart from the (lack of) leadership Liberals have at the moment their main problem is hubris.

 

[ComeFlyWithMe]

So now the Labor leadership is settled is it time for a Liberal leadership change?

Be funny if Tony Abbott emulated John Hewson and lost and unlosable election. I reckon the biggest problem the Liberals have at the moment is hubris.

I think any problems in the Liberal Party are dwarfed by the issues plaguing the ALP. I would also hardly say the leadership issue is 'settled', and they lost even more credibility with the punters (if that is possible)...

 

[eastwest101]

All well and good but I think you grossly underestimate the swings

Oh yes - that is entirely possible. You would expect the swings in NSW and WA to be very very large, WA isn't an issue as the ALP almost have nothing left to lose there already but NSW/QLD are a problem as any swing against the ALP will result in the loss of seats. Getting a swing towards the ALP in say TAS and SA is a big ask for few seats but VIC is the ALP's only hope.

Most of the opinion polls since 2011 have predicted anywhere from a mild loss of seats for the ALP all the way through to a total decimation for the federal ALP. I haven't seen any that could be construed as the ALP gaining lots of seats. Its all academic anyway as it will only take a few independants to lose their seat and the ALP couldn't retain government anyway.

 

[amaroo]

Its all academic anyway as it will only take a few independants to lose their seat and the ALP couldn't retain government anyway.

Two are a dead set certainty to be clearing the desk in later part of Sept Earlier if they pike it.

Wilkie......might get back in again.

Katter.....dead set certainty to win.....might even pick up a couple of seats in QLD

Bandt.....who cares!