Predictions of when international flights may resume/bans lifted

[get me outta here]

A billionaire who has not set foot on a commercial flight due to having his own jet, gets a seat LHR- SYD for a TV gig.
A 52 yo Aussie who has been bumped 6 times is most unimpressed:

(Clearly the ultra rich get special treatment. )

'How is this fair?' Expats furious after Lord Sugar brags of flying into Sydney.

“... The 52-year-old said he held gold frequent flyer status with Emirates but had been bumped off six flights as a result of the 30-person limit on a single flight.

"COVID is proving one rule for one and one for another every single day," he told The Sydney Morning Herald and The Age.
"I find it a bit rich that Emirates would fly Lord Sugar, a non-Australian, who hasn’t flown commercially for 25 years, so never with Emirates, when I am a Gold Member, have spent thousands of dollars to get that, and yet cannot get back from London”.

'How is this fair?' Expats furious after Lord Sugar brags of flying into Sydney

Alan Sugar, a British Lord, revealed on Twitter that he had secured one of the estimated 30 seats on an Emirates flight from London this week.

www.smh.com.au

 

[Pushka]

Something is still not adding up.

As at 31 July there were 25,500 Australians registered with DFAT as overseas.

Of these 18,800 wanted to return in the next 6 months.

With weekly cap of 3,975 - then that means there should/could have been 27,825 international arrivals since then.

Yet the figure mentioned, in the last day or so, now says there are 30,000 Australians wanting to return (DFAT).

So, how has the figure of 'wanting to return' increased by around 11,000 in 7 weeks instead of being close to zero?

Who, exactly, has been arriving in their place? Since 9,000 more people were allowed back over that time period then were registered as wanting to return.

Suggests that close to 40,000 non-Australians arrived over those 7 weeks doesn't it?

People change their mind? 7 weeks can be a very long time. People may not have known that was an option and tried to get back under their own steam but found they couldnt and needed assistance? It is a very fluid issue.

 

[p--and--t]

People change their mind? 7 weeks can be a very long time. People may not have known that was an option and tried to get back under their own steam but found they couldnt and needed assistance? It is a very fluid issue.

As the economies in various countries decline, people lose their jobs, their money runs out, their visas expire, inflections skyrocket, the urgency to return will change day by day.

No surprises there.

 

[RAM]

As the economies in various countries decline, people lose their jobs, their money runs out, their visas expire, inflections skyrocket, the urgency to return will change day by day.

No surprises there.

If it was in the first few months of CV then I'd agree with your logic, not after 8 months though seems much more to it. Such as 'Lord Sugar' for example. The Fed Govt puts out the spin that our International borders are closed to all but Australians, yet thousands of foreign nationals are arriving each month. Some more high profile than others (Tom Hanks & wife).

In the figures I ran through in my post a couple above - after 7 months there were only 25,000 Australians registered with DFAT as overseas. The first major peaks for virtually all countries had finished by April or May.

70% of those wanting to come (registered with DFAT) were in India, The Philipines, South Africa & Vietnam as of 31 July - yet until yesterday every media article was about a white AngloSaxon in the UK or Europe. Now we have a story about an instagram influencer stuck in South Africa.

With the latest twist, AJ asking to be paid by the Fed Govt to fly 'Australians' back home.

Qantas ready to restart international flights, bring Australians home

Qantas CEO Alan Joyce says international flights could recommence under a government subsidy.

www.executivetraveller.com

Yet there are tens of thousands of empty seats flying into Australia every month that cannot be sold due to the Fed international arrivals cap & HQ. If Gladys & Co are so well organised etc - now that arrivals have to pay their way - why won't NSW revert to the cap that was in place up until July 4th of up to 600 per day (4,200/week) vs the new figure of 2,950/week?

So much double speak deliberately obsuring the truth.

Can this get more Orwellian?

 

[dajop]

People change their mind? 7 weeks can be a very long time. People may not have known that was an option and tried to get back under their own steam but found they couldnt and needed assistance? It is a very fluid issue.

Also many who don't "need" to come back, but would "like" to, probably aren't registered with DFAT. I not even something many who live abroad would even think about.

 

[dajop]

Yet there are tens of thousands of empty seats flying into Australia every month that cannot be sold due to the Fed international arrivals cap & HQ.

Yes, there seems to be an angle of spinning this to demonise the airlines. I was reading the AJ article and thinking What The ...? Media shouldn't be pandering to him but they do. The problem isn't the lack of seats, it's the lack of quarantine capacity. The might be a few people hidden in certain countries, but for most of the mainstream countries there does seem to access. Maybe it's India that's the biggest problem, as the usual routes to Australia (like SQ via SIN etc) are closed due to transit restrictions.

 

[p--and--t]

If it was in the first few months of CV then I'd agree with your logic, not after 8 months though seems much more to it. Such as 'Lord Sugar' for example. The Fed Govt puts out the spin that our International borders are closed to all but Australians, yet thousands of foreign nationals are arriving each month. Some more high profile than others (Tom Hanks & wife).

In the figures I ran through in my post a couple above - after 7 months there were only 25,000 Australians registered with DFAT as overseas. The first major peaks for virtually all countries had finished by April or May.

70% of those wanting to come (registered with DFAT) were in India, The Philipines, South Africa & Vietnam as of 31 July - yet until yesterday every media article was about a white AngloSaxon in the UK or Europe. Now we have a story about an instagram influencer stuck in South Africa.

With the latest twist, AJ asking to be paid by the Fed Govt to fly 'Australians' back home.

Qantas ready to restart international flights, bring Australians home

Qantas CEO Alan Joyce says international flights could recommence under a government subsidy.

www.executivetraveller.com

Yet there are tens of thousands of empty seats flying into Australia every month that cannot be sold due to the Fed international arrivals cap & HQ. If Gladys & Co are so well organised etc - now that arrivals have to pay their way - why won't NSW revert to the cap that was in place up until July 4th of up to 600 per day (4,200/week) vs the new figure of 2,950/week?

So much double speak deliberately obsuring the truth.

Can this get more Orwellian?

According to some reports a while back there were more than 300,000 Australians temporarily overseas. So at one point we had around 1/12of those wanting to come back who were experiencing difficulties one way or another.

[BTW IIRC The gov has granted another approx 30,000 approvals to depart for a variety of reasons, many compassionate for short term reasons. Potentially those in non-compassionate categories, may have multiple departures and reentries approved]

The total pool of desired returnees will have grown as the pandemic has sweeps countries where Aussies may have been residing that were originally considered to be low risk and economies not suffering greatly.

In the space of the last 8 months there would have been a lot of changes in circumstances including mothers getting pregnant, jobs lost, money running out, visas expiring, relationship breakups, health changes job changes.

With all airlines cancelling flights or significantly slashing seat available cancelling seats that previously people were confident they could use to return will have started people panicking. Some people have been actively trying to come home for months and can't get a flight.

The click bait headlines around a handful of high profile names getting undeserved priority can be enraging but in the context of the overall numbers I would think are just miniscule blips.

What I think is missing is clarity of facts who is arriving from where and whether they are citizens or permanent residents.

 

[NickCorr]

A billionaire who has not set foot on a commercial flight due to having his own jet, gets a seat LHR- SYD for a TV gig.
A 52 yo Aussie who has been bumped 6 times is most unimpressed:

(Clearly the ultra rich get special treatment. )

'How is this fair?' Expats furious after Lord Sugar brags of flying into Sydney.

“... The 52-year-old said he held gold frequent flyer status with Emirates but had been bumped off six flights as a result of the 30-person limit on a single flight.

"COVID is proving one rule for one and one for another every single day," he told The Sydney Morning Herald and The Age.
"I find it a bit rich that Emirates would fly Lord Sugar, a non-Australian, who hasn’t flown commercially for 25 years, so never with Emirates, when I am a Gold Member, have spent thousands of dollars to get that, and yet cannot get back from London”.

'How is this fair?' Expats furious after Lord Sugar brags of flying into Sydney

Alan Sugar, a British Lord, revealed on Twitter that he had secured one of the estimated 30 seats on an Emirates flight from London this week.

www.smh.com.au

I am assuming that Sir Alan paid though the nose for a 1st class ticket, and therefore bought his way onto the flight rather than bumping off others because he was more important.. It was just that he was willing to pay what it cost to get on that plane... The issue is with the other states (outside VIC and NSW) not pulling their weight when it comes to allowing the disembarkation of Australians and others into the 14 day isolation. This would have allowed the airlines to fly half full, thus at least getting closer to covering the cost of the flights.... And getting people home when there was more momentum..

 

[get me outta here]

I didn’t read all the details, but there was a suggestion somewhere that he may have got the seat(s) free, but I think it is more likely he paid heaps. It unknown at present.

I am assuming that Sir Alan paid though the nose for a 1st class ticket, and therefore bought his way onto the flight rather than bumping off others because he was more important.. It was just that he was willing to pay what it cost to get on that plane... The issue is with the other states (outside VIC and NSW) not pulling their weight when it comes to allowing the disembarkation of Australians and others into the 14 day isolation. This would have allowed the airlines to fly half full, thus at least getting closer to covering the cost of the flights.... And getting people home when there was more momentum..

 

[Flashback]

Keep in mind also, some that were waiting to come home would have wanted to travel with their +1 (and maybe family too) who may not necessarily have passports. What seemed to be happening is their request for exemption for their +1's wouldn't be processed until 1-2 days before the flight. So what I would say is happening is people were applying, with a date far out in the future hoping that it would be approved in good time and they could then book their flight, not wanting to book the flight on the basis the exemption may not come through. Bit of a chicken/egg situation.

 

[Toula92122]

Also many who don't "need" to come back, but would "like" to, probably aren't registered with DFAT. I not even something many who live abroad would even think about.

I doubt if the Australian government has any real idea of the numbers planning to come return to Oz as I think most people who are more experienced at overseas life would figure that they will get themselves back. I had to go to the Consulate in San Francisco this week to renew my passport. Appointments in Los Angeles were booked 5 weeks out, not sure if that is normal or whether it's a sign of people renewing passports to return to Oz. Last I looked Washington DC was closed for passport issuance so how easy is it for someone overseas to even get a passport seeing we all have to front up in person for that sham of an interview. During my 5 minute interaction at the Consulate I was not asked if I was registered with them, there was nothing posted to give details to a website for any information if I was interested in returning to Oz, no handout to go with the receipt for $323US they charge for an overseas renewal, nothing even hinting at the existence of CV except I had to go and wash my hands before entering the office with a face mask on of course .

We are on the fence about packing up our life here and returning to Oz but if we choose to do so will do it under our own steam, purchase a business class seat on United, there will be no consultation with any government official. Also with regards to the numbers, remember all the people who are being allowed to travel overseas for business then returning would be in those numbers.

 

[muppet]

Does anyone understand why airlines are flying mostly empty flights often rather than filling a plane and flying less often but still within the arrival cap?

 

[dajop]

Does anyone understand why airlines are flying mostly empty flights often rather than filling a plane and flying less often but still within the arrival cap?

Freight and outbound passenger traffic?

A range of airlines are still flying to MEL, but can only take pax outbound. Some, eg AA at the moment are flying with no pax. Freight must figure heavily in this.

 

[MEL_Traveller]

That's a really good point muppet! They must be making enough money on the freight + 30 pax to make it worth their while. Which I guess then raises the question... why isn't QF/Virgin flying the 'short' international flights to Asia etc? (can understand Europe might not be profitable as a non-stop or multi sector.)

 

[Pushka]

That's a really good point muppet! They must be making enough money on the freight + 30 pax to make it worth their while. Which I guess then raises the question... why isn't QF/Virgin flying the 'short' international flights to Asia etc? (can understand Europe might not be profitable as a non-stop or multi sector.)

The seafood industry has kicked in early in SA and they are harvesting Lobsters. Oysters. Prawns. Warm spring helps. They will fill the holds of SQ and Qatar.

 

[oznflfan]

Does anyone understand why airlines are flying mostly empty flights often rather than filling a plane and flying less often but still within the arrival cap?

I was sorta thinking the same question, but I think Aust Govt restrict max of circa 30-40 pax per flight

 

[jakeseven7]

Does anyone understand why airlines are flying mostly empty flights often rather than filling a plane and flying less often but still within the arrival cap?

I think you will find that there are massive government subsidies / arrangements and guarantees keeping them in the air. There is a reason Qatar is still flying everywhere and it’s not good luck

 

[dajop]

They must be making enough money on the freight + 30 pax to make it worth their while. Which I guess then raises the question... why isn't QF/Virgin flying the 'short' international flights to Asia etc? (can understand

QF seems to be rotating their A330s at a Low frequency around several Asian routes (using established flight numbers) presumably for freight and pilot currency. Of course not taking pax.

QF36 Flight Tracker-Singapore to Melbourne (Qantas Airways QF 36)-PlaneMapper

Flight QF36 from Singapore to Melbourne is operated by Qantas Airways. Scheduled time of departure from Changi Intl is 19:40 +08 and scheduled time of arrival in Melbourne Intl is 06:10 AEDT. The duration of the flight Qantas Airways QF 36 is 7 hours 30 minutes.

www.planemapper.com

 

[jase05]

The seafood industry has kicked in early in SA and they are harvesting Lobsters. Oysters. Prawns. Warm spring helps. They will fill the holds of SQ and Qatar.

Predominantly beef and lamb on QR from ADL currently.
SQ are getting the majority of seafood

 

[jase05]

There goes any chance of a NZ travel bubble anytime soon

Sad reality: Air NZ boss says Oz bubble six months away, 'could well be longer'

'If it comes back quicker, we're going to pop some champagne.'

www.nzherald.co.nz