Predictions of when international flights may resume/bans lifted

[Seat0B]

That's a simplistic response to a very complicated situation for many. (Oops, missed the sarcasm )

I think @dajop had their tongue in cheek with their comment @Pushka!

 

[Pushka]

I think @dajop had their tongue in cheek with their comment @Pushka!

Yep. I'm a bit reactive tonight

 

[Seat0B]

Yep. I'm a bit reactive tonight

Happens to the best of us

 

[p--and--t]

Yep. I'm a bit reactive tonight

Tonight?

 

[Pushka]

Tonight?

You'll keep.

 

[antycbr]

2000 in Quarantine in WA

The majority of which are interstate travellers, which is purely a result of the McGowan Government's approach to risk management. They can be excluded from consideration of the international cap.

 

[Brettmcg]

Could you provide a link to the minutes or report please.

HQI

Look for the video of Day 18: 16 September

Sutton starts talking about quarantine programs around 1:45:00 I think. Can't remember the precise time stamp for Van Diemen, but it's much later in the video - I think around 5:15:00. The site has transcripts also.

 

[I love to travel]

In the Qantas Lounge closing thread, it was reported that Qantas have laid off all SIN lounge staff and that they have bene told might not open for two years. Most of the commentary is about state borders, but AJ clearly doesn't hold out much hope for travel next year.

 

[Pushka]

In the Qantas Lounge closing thread, it was reported that Qantas have laid off all SIN lounge staff and that they have bene told might not open for two years. Most of the commentary is about state borders, but AJ clearly doesn't hold out much hope for travel next year.

Qantas will lose a lot of patronage then and others will pick it up.

 

[Brettmcg]

In the Qantas Lounge closing thread, it was reported that Qantas have laid off all SIN lounge staff and that they have bene told might not open for two years. Most of the commentary is about state borders, but AJ clearly doesn't hold out much hope for travel next year.

Given that was my post, I can probably shed some more light.

Basically they've been told it could be anywhere from 12-24 months, and there really just isn't any certainty in how things might start moving again. I believe they were told that July is the aim, but I don't think anyone can say with any confidence that the Fed Government will have relaxed the outbound travel ban by then.

That said, given Singapore has brought its infections under control, I wouldn't be surprised if it tries to establish a bubble/green lane with Australia. It already has a unilateral approach for New Zealand and Brunei.

 

[RAM]

I know but why do we have to look at population comparisons? They can jump on a domestic flight once they clear quarantine... WA and SA are dead, their hotels are empty. They aren't managing anything covid related in the community. Their health staff are probably knocking off at 3 every day and going to the beach , I think WA has like 3 or 4 cases. Cmon.... as a nation we can do better. Sometimes when someone stumbled you pick up the slack and do a bit more work.

As has been mentioned there are domestic hotel quarantine arrivals to be managed, if you look at the NT's figures (great site break-up) then you get an idea of the potential scale of the problem if say WA opened itself up to all States allowed to visit.

As to the WA community - the WA economy is ranking as in the Top Ten strongest in the world since 31 Dec 2019 - the combination of their hard border lockdown post-Ruby Princess + resources have it up around 6% YTD (I recall the figure as).

WA receives more in royalties from the resource sector in one year than the Fed Govt will receive on the Queensland LNG exports for 17 years. Despite the value of LNG exports being 20x higher!

WA is a bit like California - it could leave the Federation ('Republic') & stand on its own two feet very comfortably.

WA, unlike California, has successfully managed CV though (to-date).

 

[jakeseven7]

Just on ABC News, 30,000 Australians now registered with an immediate intent to come home - QLD and WA called out (again) as being the main sticking point to assist with processing.

 

[Danger]

In the Qantas Lounge closing thread, it was reported that Qantas have laid off all SIN lounge staff and that they have bene told might not open for two years. Most of the commentary is about state borders, but AJ clearly doesn't hold out much hope for travel next year.

Or Joyce still thinks July 2021 is when things will ramp up again but will keep lounges closed until flights sell 105% of seats and blame the pandemic – rather than the company's bottom line –for the decision.

 

[dajop]

I think @dajop had their tongue in cheek with their comment @Pushka!

Was definitely tongue in cheek (in terms of my personal views). But on the serious side, what I posted is not all that out of kilter with popular sentiment. There's a sense that those overseas are all highly paid so tough luck.

The irony is those on the best salaries, also probably have home visit clauses, thus the cost of business class fare and hotel quarantine will be borne by their employer, so it isn't a problem for that particular group. But there are all sorts of Australians living overseas for all sorts of reasons.

 

[drron]

As has been mentioned there are domestic hotel quarantine arrivals to be managed, if you look at the NT's figures (great site break-up) then you get an idea of the potential scale of the problem if say WA opened itself up to all States allowed to visit.

As to the WA community - the WA economy is ranking as in the Top Ten strongest in the world since 31 Dec 2019 - the combination of their hard border lockdown post-Ruby Princess + resources have it up around 6% YTD (I recall the figure as).

WA receives more in royalties from the resource sector in one year than the Fed Govt will receive on the Queensland LNG exports for 17 years. Despite the value of LNG exports being 20x higher!

WA is a bit like California - it could leave the Federation ('Republic') & stand on its own two feet very comfortably.

WA, unlike California, has successfully managed CV though (to-date).

I doubt the WA border closure can claim to be the reason for the strong WA economy.But Brazil's handling of Covid could claim the credit.
Brazil is a major exporter of iron ore.Some of their mines were forced to be closed hence putting upward pressure on the iron ore price.

Iron ore soars as Vale ordered to shut down mines

A Brazilian judge ordered the closure of the Conceição, Cauê and Periquito mines after 188 workers tested positive for covid-19.

www.mining.com

But for the future Brazil has plans to vastly increase it's iron ore production which means China will likely cut back on the amount of iron ore it imports from WA.

Brazil warns 'we'll be back' with iron ore expansion threat

As Australia's high-flying iron ore miners focus on the threat posed by new African mines, Brazil's Vale flagged a big expansion and vowed 'we'll be back'.

www.afr.com

And China is ramping up exploration and developement of large African iron ore reserves.

China eyes African prospects to iron out trade tension with Australia | Lowy Institute

Investing in largely untapped iron ore sources in Africa might be Beijing’s answer to diversifying import sources.

www.lowyinstitute.org

And then we might hear the screams from WA politicians trying to entice tourists to the West.

 

[jakeseven7]

Aim is to ultimately have no international arrival cap, says PM

Prime Minister Scott Morrison has said the plan is to ultimately have no limit on the number of Australians who can return to Australia from overseas, after caps were introduced in July in light of flights being diverted from Melbourne to other states.

However, he said the move to increase the cap by 2000 by mid-October was a "good first step forward".

Asked about the issue of airlines not being able to fly planes out of Australia to fly them back in – due to the need for Australians to seek exemptions for overseas travel – the Prime Minister said thousands of people had received exemptions for travel and he expected this would increase when hotel quarantine caps were lifted.

"When you don't have the caps coming in, then that makes it easier for people to be able to move and if it's on essential business and travel and things like that."

As it happened: International arrival caps increased as Victoria records 45 new COVID-19 cases; QLD border to reopen to ACT as Australian death toll jumps to 839

National cabinet met today to discuss hotel quarantine arrangements for new international arrival caps as well as a definition of a hotspot.

www.theage.com.au

 

[RAM]

I doubt the WA border closure can claim to be the reason for the strong WA economy.But Brazil's handling of Covid could claim the credit.
Brazil is a major exporter of iron ore.Some of their mines were forced to be closed hence putting upward pressure on the iron ore price.

Well, without the strict measures then WA could have been forced to shut down some of their iron ore & other mines.

WA caught several FIFO workers who did not follow the required quarantine rules (including getting local police nearest to a certain BHP mine to go to the site & arrest him (if he was there).

Seems to have been very successful to date.

Similarly, WA is fully open state-wide which is why a number of sporting competitions had been playing there instead of NSW (for example).

Lack of any community transmission (mystery cases) have avoided the restrictions we've had in NSW for months.

Given Australians spend more money on overseas tourism than international tourists spend within Australia (>$20bn deficit) - it would be interesting to see what the state break-up of that $20bn tourism deficit is. Not sure it is available though.

 

[Seat0B]

Was definitely tongue in cheek (in terms of my personal views). But on the serious side, what I posted is not all that out of kilter with popular sentiment. There's a sense that those overseas are all highly paid so tough luck.

Absolutely - the uniformed vitriol is flabbergasting in its prevalence and intensity.

The irony is those on the best salaries, also probably have home visit clauses, thus the cost of business class fare and hotel quarantine will be borne by their employer, so it isn't a problem for that particular group. But there are all sorts of Australians living overseas for all sorts of reasons.

And there is a lot of variety in conditions - my middle east based lawyer son gets the home visit expenses, but not time as I don't think anyone contemplated these circumstances when it is usually just a 14 hr flight and you're home. However, he does have the capacity to work from quarantine.
However, there are practically no flights out of Dubai at the moment that are accepting bookings in economy or business - he is too junior to have First included in his contract. The earliest booking he could get (at the end of July) was late October/early November. Plus he felt bad about even trying to make a booking as there is no compelling compassionate circumstance, just a desire to get home and see family including very elderly grandparents, a newborn niece/nephew due any day now, my special birthday etc. So in the end he did not make a booking, preferring to leave it for someone who needs it more.

Further, he has no need to come home permanently as he is happily employed and living his life. But if he lost his job, and thus his working visa, things would be very different.

 

[RAM]

Something is still not adding up.

As at 31 July there were 25,500 Australians registered with DFAT as overseas.

Of these 18,800 wanted to return in the next 6 months.

With weekly cap of 3,975 - then that means there should/could have been 27,825 international arrivals since then.

Yet the figure mentioned, in the last day or so, now says there are 30,000 Australians wanting to return (DFAT).

So, how has the figure of 'wanting to return' increased by around 11,000 in 7 weeks instead of being close to zero?

Who, exactly, has been arriving in their place? Since 9,000 more people were allowed back over that time period then were registered as wanting to return.

Suggests that close to 40,000 non-Australians arrived over those 7 weeks doesn't it?

 

[rikkitikkitavi]

My mother is in her 90s. So far she's lost 6 months of her life to this. She can't see why she can't see her friends. Basically her comment is that the lockdowns are stealing what remains of her life.

If we lived in an area in which the virus was common, then the lockdowns might be justifiied. But, in areas in which there has never been any evidence of the virus?

As I see it, there is a limit to just how long the public will put up with lockdowns. Eventually, they'll simply start ignoring them, and in increasing numbers. If (as a guess) the total tolerance is for 12 weeks, then they've burnt that entirely with unnecessary lockdowns.

Yeah big difference between living and having a heart beat, I worked in a nursing home years ago and forcing people to stay in the home longer than strictly necessary with no visitors is a kind of torture. Instead of wasting hundreds of billions forcing healthy people with almost no chance of dying to cower in their homes, spend a fraction of that to allow nursing homes to be well run with competent staff thus affording some dignity to the residents.