Predictions of when international flights may resume/bans lifted

[DC3]

How about, waiting for Antony Green to call it? Works for me.

Decided to delete my post. But yes, to Antony Green.

Edit: Possibly more reliable than AFF predictions.

 

[hb13]

Personally I don't feel it's fair to attack poster's for voicing their opinions and that's the final thing I'll say on the matter.

I do see your point. I think I was just trying to show that it is not correct that Covid-19 and the Flu be termed as the same thing, particularly by those of us who have seen what it has done to people around us.

The facts show the amount of people who have died, or developed long term illness because of it. The flu doesn't do this.

I think it is also easy to see it less seriously based in Australia because it hasn't been as bad over there, which is understandable.

 

[NoName]

Winning Lotto numbers are:

3 15 22 9 4 1 19

Supplementaries please?

 

[Flashback]

I do see your point. I think I was just trying to show that it is not correct that Covid-19 and the Flu be termed as the same thing, particularly by those of us who have seen what it has done to people around us.

The facts show the amount of people who have died, or developed long term illness because of it. The flu doesn't do this.

I think it is also easy to see it less seriously based in Australia because it hasn't been as bad over there, which is understandable.

Are you sure? All the research I've seen shows that influenza does kill in quite high numbers. I'm sure @drron doesn't disagree with that, probably having experienced it first hand.

 

[DC3]

COVID is not “just the flu”. Anyone would think that we have tuned into FOX News.

 

[DC3]

Anyway, may be almost time to get back on topic: Predictions of when international flights may resume/bans lifted.

 

[jakeseven7]

And we all know the Polls get it wrong these days.

There is overwhelming public support for all domestic borders to be removed now - but change the word to international and it changes sentiment very very quickly in the opposite direction.... most Australians agree we need to find a better way to bring Australians home but are against international borders opening in general.

 

[jakeseven7]

National border is different from state borders. The State borders are determined by the state, yet the federal government can punish states in the budget. National border is the federal government issue, now they have decided to open to the Kiwis, soon they will open NSW to the Pacific and Singapore etc by Christmas or January. Other states? Kick your Premier out and open your state to NSW and you can enjoy international travel too.

Did everyone watch the budget? Take a look at incoming migration? Over the next 3 years? Tiny tiny numbers. International borders are going to be heavily restricted I suspect for longer than we all think and hope.

 

[oznflfan]

Did everyone watch the budget? Take a look at incoming migration? Over the next 3 years? Tiny tiny numbers. Borders are going to be heavily restricted I suspect for longer than we all think and hope.

WA CHO and Premier pretty hardcore on borders too, they may keep there up to mid 2021 or longer.

 

[drron]

Yes in non pandemic years it is estimated that the seasonal flu kills 291000 to 646000 people world wide.

Flu Kills 646,000 People Worldwide Each Year: Study

Seasonal flu kills 291,000 to 646,000 people worldwide each year, according to a new estimate that's higher than the previous one of 250,000 to 500,000 deaths a year.

www.medicinenet.com

As well we are comparing apples to oranges.In a normal flu season not everyone is tested for the flu.As well deaths are not attributed to the flu if someone is obviously dying of an other condition.In my flu season in charge of the "flu' ward for example if someone in the palliative care unit developed symptoms they were not tested but kept comfortable as they always were.With covid it appears they are all tested and if positive the death attributed to Covid.The extreme cae was the false positive in Blackwater,QLD.The patient died at home unseen.The covid swab was taken after death and it was originally announced as a Covid death.

The Asian flu pandemic of 1957 was estimated to have killed 1-2 million people world wide.

1957 flu pandemic | Cause, History, Deaths, & Facts | Britannica

1957 flu pandemic, outbreak of influenza that was first identified in February 1957 in East Asia and that subsequently spread to countries worldwide. The outbreak caused an estimated 1,000,000 to 2,000,000 deaths worldwide and is considered to have been the least severe of the three 20th-century...

www.britannica.com

And the population then was ~ 40% of now at 2.8 billion.

So in 2020 1 million have died of Covid-19.It is likely that is larger than the actual deaths from Covid.The number of cases is likely to be correct or somewhat underestimated as some countries really aren't or can't test.This means the initial mortality rate for Covid was almost certainly an overestimate

 

[hb13]

Are you sure? All the research I've seen shows that influenza does kill in quite high numbers. I'm sure @drron doesn't disagree with that, probably having experienced it first hand.

If you are comparing the amount of deaths of the flu to Covid-19, amongst other issues Covid-19 causes, that's up to you. The large majority of reputable people in the medical and scientific world have said that Covid-19 is much more serious. And let's keep this factual. According to WHO, there was an estimated 290k to 650k deaths from the flu last year. Influenza (Seasonal).

This year, Covid-19 has caused over a million deaths, and there are three months left in the year. I'm no mathematician, but that is a pretty stark difference.

But this is not the forum to get into this. And go and do your own research.

 

[jakeseven7]

WA CHO and Premier pretty hardcore on borders too, they may keep there up to mid 2021 or longer.

International actually isn’t their call to make
Though in the budget they have WA opening domestic (!) in only April... unsurprisingly a week after the state election. What a coincidence....

 

[Flashback]

If you are comparing the amount of deaths of the flu to Covid-19, amongst other issues Covid-19 causes, that's up to you. The large majority of reputable people in the medical and scientific world have said that Covid-19 is much more serious. And let's keep this factual. According to WHO, there was an estimated 290k to 650k deaths from the flu last year. Influenza (Seasonal).

This year, Covid-19 has caused over a million deaths, and there are three months left in the year. I'm no mathematician, but that is a pretty stark difference.

But this is not the forum to get into this. And go and do your own research.

More cases are attributed to COVID-19 than should be, drron has explained it perfectly. I have done my own research, but also know drron has it to hand and sure enough he came along and posted it which mirrored the same findings I had.

 

[hb13]

More cases are attributed to COVID-19 than should be, drron has explained it perfectly. I have done my own research, but also know drron has it to hand and sure enough he came along and posted it which mirrored the same findings I had.

What about the huge number of unreported cases?

You can't have it both ways where on one hand you question the actual number of cases officially reported, but forget to mention the millions upon millions not reported.

If we want to question all the data and make assumptions and argue what the "real" numbers are, anyone can argue any point or use stats to prove their point. Otherwise, we stick to the officially reported numbers.

In any case, I won't be saying anymore on the matter here. This is not the forum.

 

[N860CR]

What about the huge number of unreported cases?

In fairness, that works the other way. Over report deaths, underreport cases

 

[serfty]

AFF has posting guidelines that relate to offensive comments. That is, offending other members with certain statements, which are also totally untrue in this case. I wish that the poster had not said such things. Where’s the consideration there? We are not free to post whatever we want. I guess that things will take their course, one way or another.

I would suggest members here actually read an entire post rather the the out of context snippet by @hb13.

The actual paragraph was:

...
The difference, though, is that when we have vaccines and monoclonal antibodies available in 2021, most if not all patients will get recovered very soon and by then Coronavirus will be treated as only a little flu, as its always should be.
...

The selective quoting alters the entire meaning of that original post and had caused a pile on.

Go back and read the post!

 

[drron]

What about the huge number of unreported cases?

You can't have it both ways where on one hand you question the actual number of cases officially reported, but forget to mention the millions upon millions not reported.

If we want to question all the data and make assumptions and argue what the "real" numbers are, anyone can argue any point or use stats to prove their point. Otherwise, we stick to the officially reported numbers.

In any case, I won't be saying anymore on the matter here. This is not the forum. If I want to listen to people who believe this is a myth, hoax or just the flu, I'll just go and watch Fox News or Donald Trump videos.

The point is the more unreported cases there are the less is the mortality rate bringing it closer to the seasonal flu levels.

Deaths do not go unreported and both the QLD and Vic governments have admitted that anyone dying who is Covid positive is recorded as a Covid death no matter what they died of.And they both said that is the case Australia wide.
Sorry but the article was in a recent herald Sun issue and that is behind a pay wall for me.

 

[Pushka]

From the budget papers, maybe fake news but
"International tourism — both inbound and outbound — is expected to remain low until the latter part of 2021 and recover gradually, the Budget papers say."

 

[ayushamity]

From the budget papers, maybe fake news but
"International tourism — both inbound and outbound — is expected to remain low until the latter part of 2021 and recover gradually, the Budget papers say."

That is probably about right. Most of the countries forming bulk of tourism (USA/UK/Europe/Bali) are covid infested.

 

[antycbr]

That is probably about right. Most of the countries forming bulk of tourism (USA/UK/Europe/Bali) are covid infested.

There’s funding to continue the international freight network (none of which is being flown by Australian carriers) and some funds for Airservices and CASA, but nothing major to help QF who have a substantial international business operating at zero percent.