Predictions of when international flights may resume/bans lifted

[VPS]

From the budget papers - looks like they are not predicting the vaccine any time soon


The economy will shrink by 3.75 per cent this year, before growing by 4.25 per cent next year if a “population-wide Australian COVID-19 vaccination program is full in place by late 2021”, the budget papers have forecast, setting the economy up for a feat few others are expected to enjoy.

 

[DC3]

Seeing as how some do not seem that interested in getting back on topic, I feel that I may continue in a similar line.

Of the thousands of people whom I have come across in my working life, neighbours, friends, relatives, etc, I know of absolutely no-one who has died from “the flu”, suspected or not. And yes, some of us may have experienced otherwise, Let’s not get into nursing/medical professionals who may come across this, as this is part of their profession/calling.

What is it about some who try to push the idea about COVID being nothing worse than the flu, which was not an isolated comment? There are other comments about this. Totally disengenous, along with those who defend such posts. And no, I’m not attacking any specific AFFer, and not pointing to any recent post, just expressing my understanding.

Do we really need to be told how to read or interpret posts on AFF? Please give us some credit.

Edit: Also, although I personally know of no-one who has succumbed to COVID, I hope that I never do

 

[N860CR]

Of the thousands of people whom I have come across in my working life, neighbours, friends, relatives, etc, I know of absolutely no-one who has died from “the flu”

Also, although I personally know of no-one who has succumbed to COVID, I hope that I never do

So we remain in a neutral position

 

[Flashback]

So we remain in a neutral position

Yes, it does make you wonder what the posturing is really about.

 

[DC3]

Apparently COVID is not just the flu. . At least according to twitface.

Facebook, Twitter block post that claims Covid-19 less deadly than flu.

"We remove incorrect information about the severity of Covid-19" a Facebook spokesperson said in a statement to CNBC.

 

[N860CR]

Yes, it does make you wonder what the posturing is really about.

I find one of the most fascinating aspects of this whole situation to be the absolute total panic that governments have been able to cause amongst a fairly large portion of the population. That’s, of course, promoted and controlled by mainstream media (look at the example above about Faceboo/Twitter censoring comments that don’t suit the narrative).

I’m half expecting to wake up one day and see that it was all just one giant social experiment.

 

[hb13]

I find one of the most fascinating aspects of this whole situation to be the absolute total panic that governments have been able to cause amongst a fairly large portion of the population. That’s, of course, promoted and controlled by mainstream media (look at the example above about Faceboo/Twitter censoring comments that don’t suit the narrative).

I’m half expecting to wake up one day and see that it was all just one giant social experiment.

Once again, that's factually incorrect. Facebook took down comments because they were factually incorrect. Not because it didn't "suit the narrative". There were claims the Flu kills 100k people a year in the US - that is factually false. Or do you also think the CDC in the US is making up false numbers about that as well?

 

[dajop]

It’s easy, with the benefit of hindsight and the result from the severe restrictions put in place to limit the spread of the virus, to suggest it is just a flu. It’s also easy to forget what happened in northern Italy and New York in March, Is it normal for 20 people to die from the flu after taking a 13 day cruise ? (Genuine question). Maybe it will, (maybe it has already) morph into a flu like illness, but that call can only be made with the benefit of hindsight, not at the start when nothing is known, and there was a lot to learn about how it works, and the short and long term impacts.

Very much a case of fear of the unknown. Once it is no longer unknown then things can start returning to some semblance of normal

Hopefully as we understand more and work out better how to deal with the virus, measures like reopening borders, can be taken.

 

[DC3]

I see that skepticism is still flourishing, with the odd few believing that COVID is just the flu, and not bothering to read (or attempt to understand) what’s in a link as posted.

 

[kpc]

From the budget papers, maybe fake news but
"International tourism — both inbound and outbound — is expected to remain low until the latter part of 2021 and recover gradually, the Budget papers say."

At the National Press Club today, Josh Frydenburg said ""Domestic borders are assumed to reopen around the end of this year. International travel, including by tourists and international students, is assumed to remain largely closed off until... late next year and then gradually return over time, and a vaccine to be available around the end of 2021 is one of the assumptions in the budget." Not great news...what do you guys think ?

 

[jakeseven7]

At the National Press Club today, Josh Frydenburg said ""Domestic borders are assumed to reopen around the end of this year. International travel, including by tourists and international students, is assumed to remain largely closed off until... late next year and then gradually return over time, and a vaccine to be available around the end of 2021 is one of the assumptions in the budget." Not great news...what do you guys think ?

I think on domestic borders he is correct, the Federal government needs to take more control of the narrative in this area to stop these petty 'Premier wars'. On international, I sadly think he is optimistic, in the sense that I honestly don't think the Australian public will accept quarantine free travel until there is broad scale immunisation from the country in question and they are part of AU/NZ/Pacific's bubble.... I'm happy to be wrong of course!

 

[CityRail]

At the National Press Club today, Josh Frydenburg said ""Domestic borders are assumed to reopen around the end of this year. International travel, including by tourists and international students, is assumed to remain largely closed off until... late next year and then gradually return over time, and a vaccine to be available around the end of 2021 is one of the assumptions in the budget." Not great news...what do you guys think ?

I think this is fairly conservative. Because vaccines are having real time assessment by relevant authorities in the EU and Canada at the moment, and WHO has already said today that a vaccine may be available by the end of the year.

Having said that it takes time to manufacture and distribute, however in Australia we have our own manufacture capacity and previously Hunt mentioned a few million can be ready by Easter which I would suggest the budget estimate is quite conservative about this. Which makes sense because it needs to have a fair estimate for the timing of when the borders reopen the latest.

My two cents is that when vaccine starts to become available in early 2021, we will see domestic borders removed as well as some international travel between safe countries, followed by high risk countries towards the end of 2021 when more of the population is being vaccinated.

Unfortunately, I cannot forsee all of population will be vaccinated, which I am against this point in the budget, since there will be a lot of people refuse to be vaccinated because they don't think the severity of the virus is that bad, or they may only vaccinate when they are infected.

Interestingly, I wonder why there's no mention of Taiwan or Hong Kong to be part of the travel bubble rather than keep talking about Japan and Korea. Taiwan, Thailand and Hong Kong has lower number of Coronavirus cases than Korea and Japan, and if Australia can open to Japan and Korea then we can definitely be able to open to a portfolio of countries that has a fair amount of infections every day.

(Note: Japan and Korea has about 100 infections per day)

 

[dajop]

At the National Press Club today, Josh Frydenburg said ""Domestic borders are assumed to reopen around the end of this year. International travel, including by tourists and international students, is assumed to remain largely closed off until... late next year

The international students things does surprise me a little. Assuming most are paying a reasonably large fee to be educated in Australia, over an academic year that runs for 9 months, there would be a way of using pre departure testing and quarantine (at their cost), to bring them into the country safely. I guess when Australians can't travel overseas (although those accepted into overseas universities could to places like UK, US that are accepting Australians), is politically not on.

 

[CityRail]

The international students things does surprise me a little. Assuming most are paying a reasonably large fee to be educated in Australia, over an academic year that runs for 9 months, there would be a way of using pre departure testing and quarantine (at their cost), to bring them into the country safely. I guess when Australians can't travel overseas (although those accepted into overseas universities could to places like UK, US that are accepting Australians), is politically not on.

I feel like international students is not on the top of the agenda until early next year, where we can see a better progress of vaccine and 15 minute fast testing etc.

It is because we are currently in the middle of the semester followed by a long summer break which will see universities has no urgent need for international students to come to Australia for now.

I believe once we entered January, when we understand more news about a vaccine, universities will start pressure the government to allow international students in.

With international students, I think there are 2 streams that we need to consider:

One is from 'safe' countries such as mainland China, Hong Kong, Singapore etc which we might be able to allow them in with testing only.

One is from 'high risk' countries such as India which they might need to undergo quarantine.

I feel like the Federal Government will soon establish a traffic light system, once it is established, we will be a lot clearer of when and how international students be able to come back to the country.

 

[Seat0B]

At the National Press Club today, Josh Frydenburg said ""Domestic borders are assumed to reopen around the end of this year. International travel, including by tourists and international students, is assumed to remain largely closed off until... late next year and then gradually return over time, and a vaccine to be available around the end of 2021 is one of the assumptions in the budget." Not great news...what do you guys think ?

Noooooooo

 

[jakeseven7]

The international students things does surprise me a little. Assuming most are paying a reasonably large fee to be educated in Australia, over an academic year that runs for 9 months, there would be a way of using pre departure testing and quarantine (at their cost), to bring them into the country safely. I guess when Australians can't travel overseas (although those accepted into overseas universities could to places like UK, US that are accepting Australians), is politically not on.

I think one could also read into the sub text here as well, if international students aren't being allowed in (really) next year then Australians may well not be allowed out either... (so international status quo to continue for quite a while). I think their sights are squarely set on opening up domestically as a first step then 'seeing what happens'....

 

[drron]

I see that skepticism is still flourishing, with the odd few believing that COVID is just the flu, and not bothering to read (or attempt to understand) what’s in a link as posted.

The problem is too many people underestimate the flu.Watching a 23 year old pregnant woman die of the flu does change your mind.

 

[jb747]

And again, the airlines simply will not survive this. So, forget about talking about lounge access, and competition. By the time this ends, I expect that most of the structure that allowed mass travel will have been destroyed.

 

[focusedbear]

Interestingly, I wonder why there's no mention of Taiwan or Hong Kong to be part of the travel bubble rather than keep talking about Japan and Korea.

You couldn't choose two more different countries, at least politically. All the media outlets picked up on the Singapore bubble.

I suspect some feathers may have to be smoothed over before we hear anything on China/HK. At least with China, there are good economic reasons to be able to travel there. For what it's worth, only now is the HK government thinking about opening up to the mainland. If that's the case other countries are still some way behind.

 

[antycbr]

I think one could also read into the sub text here as well, if international students aren't being allowed in (really) next year then Australians may well not be allowed out either... (so international status quo to continue for quite a while). I think their sights are squarely set on opening up domestically as a first step then 'seeing what happens'....

I also think the Government could not survive the anger of allowing international students in while Australian citizens are finding it incredibly difficult to get home.

States who don't open borders domestically are also being clearly and explicitly told that they cannot allow in international travellers while Australians are not allow to travel to their states.