Predictions of when international flights may resume/bans lifted

[Danger]

My original guess was the end of 2020 for domestic and a year later internationally. But I also thought that seats would be limited as so many airlines and aircraft would no longer exist.

I don’t see normality in any time frame now.

Time to update my prediction.

Back when this all started, I said domestic at the end of this year, and international at the end of 21. I think I was far too optimistic.

Domestic end 21. International end 23. But, there will be no airlines (at least in Oz). Oh, that's when I think it will start, not reach normality.

Actually, I believe your original prediction on 3 April was:

Unrestricted domestic air travel. October 2020. But there won't be any airlines.

International. October 2021.

To the relief of all of us, I suspect, your prediction was not accurate. The most pleasing part, of course, is that all (domestic) airlines, to my knowledge, are still standing, far apart from your prediction that there would be none come October 2020.

Your (rolling, updated) highly alarming, doomsday predictions may well ultimately materialise, but I think it's important to note that, so far, that has not been the case.

 

[oz_mark]

The idea is that the punishment is so severe it is a strong deterrence to breaking the law. Maybe some may not balk if the only punishment is a fine and ordered into hotel quarantine. But if you make the fines really high and add some kind of demerit system like traffic offenses and drink driving offenses so the rich can't simply pay to break the law. Like they get their passports restricted for x months for every violation. Violations can include both exiting the house you are quarantined in and allowing others into your property. Maybe signs like the "Open for inspection" signs can be placed in front of a house to warn others that the residents are serving a quarantine period and the penalty to enter the property is $10,000. Dates and times should be spelled out. Like quarantine ends 26 Nov 10:00 am. Anyone breaking the rules before that time risks huge fines, having their visitors fined, loss of passport for x months. Then they won't be so eager to break the rules. Meanwhile those who follow the rules can simply stay home with no visitors for 14 days and then be free.

You also need to factor in how courts are going to behave with large fines. Some jursidictions have courts that frequently manage to find ways to let offenders off with watered down punishments.

 

[drron]

She is not elected by the people, she is a public servant and so doesn’t sit in cabinet and will endure even if AP loses the election.

So yes, she can be reassigned, sacked, promoted etc just like you would an employee so to speak... apparently the department has been trying to coax her to move on (retire) from the role for years now...

I’m not sure how exactly you could move someone like this under a state of emergency, if that changes how the CHO role can be managed.... certainly VIC moved their deputy CHO on via a ‘reassignment’ very quickly when they were deemed to be not fantastic...

But you can appoint a superior,say a prominent epidemiologist who just might make life difficult for her.

 

[DC3]

“Predictions of when international flights may resume/bans lifted”: Reading some of the posts, I had to check what thread I was reading.

 

[CityRail]

I now would predict international travel to NZ should resume before Christmas, except Victoria possibly. NZ is having their electiom later this month and I would say COVID border closure against safe state of Australia is only an election stunt. Once election is over Jacinda would have no choice but to open Australia to NZ hopefully December/January.

We should also see the overseas travel ban extension until December 17 being the last extension as before that we will have data from Pfizer and AZD vaccines, which we will see unrestricted outbound travel and return in hotel quarantine for most countries.
The number of countries affected will reduce as vaccine is being rolled out and ultimately we see quarantine scrapped towards the end of 2021.
I am hoping International students will be able to return in February, if vaccines can commence rollout we might see some requiring less time in quarantine or no quarantine at all.

 

[drron]

So with the 2 vaccines you have mentioned they will not be ready by december.The Phase 111 trials may finish them but then the FDA requires 2 months data of safety.then a review process which may take another 2 months.
As well the Pfizer Vaccine requires a cold chain of -70C.That is difficult so no way can it be distributed quickly.
As to the AZD vaccine it's Phase 111 trial has just resumed after a month's pause.

COVID-19 vaccine AZD1222 clinical trial resumed in Japan, follows restart of trials in the UK, Brazil, South Africa and India

www.astrazeneca.com

 

[jb747]

Your (rolling, updated) highly alarming, doomsday predictions may well ultimately materialise, but I think it's important to note that, so far, that has not been the case.

And I seriously hope that I'm so totally wrong that you'll all be calling me an idiot. That would be a huge win.

Sadly, I still think that it's only my dates that are incorrect.

 

[moa999]

I'm not as negative on the future of QF as jb747.
If they need another $2 bn they could go and raise that tomorrow (even if it is at a deeply discounted rate).

Like all airlines though, they do face plenty of challenges.

Somewhat perversely it might be better being the weaker airlines in this crisis.
As we've seen with Norwegian and Virgin Aus, and the current proposal around AirAsiaX,
It's a big opportunity to right size and permanently reduce cost bases, and lenders and lessors have few other options.

Apart from a few select bubbles I'm resigned to no international travel in 2021.

 

[oznflfan]

I now would predict international travel to NZ should resume before Christmas, except Victoria possibly. NZ is having their electiom later this month and I would say COVID border closure against safe state of Australia is only an election stunt. Once election is over Jacinda would have no choice but to open Australia to NZ hopefully December/January.

We should also see the overseas travel ban extension until December 17 being the last extension as before that we will have data from Pfizer and AZD vaccines, which we will see unrestricted outbound travel and return in hotel quarantine for most countries.
The number of countries affected will reduce as vaccine is being rolled out and ultimately we see quarantine scrapped towards the end of 2021.
I am hoping International students will be able to return in February, if vaccines can commence rollout we might see some requiring less time in quarantine or no quarantine at all.

More reasonable, but press back all references to opening Dec 20 to opening March 21.

Vaccine wise, really think mid next year before all approvals and all clear from Scomo.

And yes, politics is controlling a lot of this, but April all done for some time, so we should be all open post WA's circus election.

 

[oznflfan]

I'm not as negative on the future of QF as jb747.
If they need another $2 bn they could go and raise that tomorrow (even if it is at a deeply discounted rate).

Like all airlines though, they do face plenty of challenges.

Somewhat perversely it might be better being the weaker airlines in this crisis.
As we've seen with Norwegian and Virgin Aus, and the current proposal around AirAsiaX,
It's a big opportunity to right size and permanently reduce cost bases, and lenders and lessors have few other options.

Apart from a few select bubbles I'm resigned to no international travel in 2021.

Totally agree, QF has strong domestic market, unlike most airlines. I always travel QF domestically, but don't think I have ever flown QF internationally. They could survive being domestic and NZ only if they wanted to.

Somewhere between July and September will fly to Europe, and only yesterday remembered Goodwood, likely beginning of July annually that I will attend on 2022. Feel pretty good about getting there without quarantine on return, give it an 80% chance*

*Subject to some sort of vaccine being jabbed into me by beginning of 2022.

 

[jakeseven7]

Thanks, you explained it very well. I wish they would reassign her so that she gets the same salary and can't claim discrimination. They need someone who can cooperate better with other state's officials in a position like this. We should all be working together. A few days ago, I read something about WA wanting to secede from Australia and be a seperate country. I am scared to death something like that could happen in any of our states. I am a migrant here so not sure if that changes my outlook as opposed to people who were born here. But I consider myself an Australian first and maybe a QLD'er for sporting events and such. I have been horrified seeing the way states are at each other's throats over this, the smugness over reporting Covid stats and all that. In this respect NZ has been doing a better job because they are seeing themselves all as one country instead of a bunch of states.

No worries.

I feel similar sadness to you as how this has descended into state v state. I have lived for years in 4 different states and think of myself as Australian first too.

I honestly think most do identify as Australian first actually, it’s just a couple of state politicians with elections looming that have discovered a magic ticket to get re-elected by whipping their population into believing the single and only way forward as a country is to keep state borders shut.

Unfortunately this is really going to kill any predictions of international borders opening anytime soon until state borders are sorted out.

NZ was in the news just a couple of days ago throwing their arms up at our state border disaster - I mean how are they going to deal with us with the QLD and NSW especially at war with each other...

NZ will only really care about VIC, NSW and QLD at the end of the day and QLD is throwing a massive spanner in the works.

At least a small step forward, the QLD CHO has now been asked directly to supply her medical evidence for the border closure with NSW, by the PM - rather than reposting the whole summary which is linked to international borders being able to be opened but a little OT here is the article

State border closures illegal under the highest law in the country?

Everything is arguable in law, doubly so in constitutional law. This is a matter for the high court. But here's my opening argument; Section 92 of the highest law in the country sets out "On the imposition of uniform duties of customs, trade, commerce, and intercourse among the States, whether...

www.australianfrequentflyer.com.au

 

[jakeseven7]

I now would predict international travel to NZ should resume before Christmas, except Victoria possibly. NZ is having their electiom later this month and I would say COVID border closure against safe state of Australia is only an election stunt. Once election is over Jacinda would have no choice but to open Australia to NZ hopefully December/January.

I’m unfortunately not so sure simply because the state domestic borders situation is going to hold up any deal with NZ, or any other country. That needs to be dealt with first.

Unless we have a national approach to defining hot spots and domestic border restrictions following a national agreement that we are never going to have any sort bubble arrangements of real meaning.

 

[kpc]

Erase plans for Europe and US all of 2021! Rising COVID cases take Europe and US off the travel list for next year

 

[antycbr]

I’m unfortunately not so sure simply because the state domestic borders situation is going to hold up any deal with NZ, or any other country. That needs to be dealt with first.

Unless we have a national approach to defining hot spots and domestic border restrictions following a national agreement that we are never going to have any sort bubble arrangements of real meaning.

I don’t think the state borders will hold things up. I wouldn’t be surprised if there is a negotiated agreement between NSW/ACT/SA/NT, via the federal government, for access to Taiwan and Singapore, possibly Vietnam as well. Other states can join when they want to, or miss out as well. Flights will go into Sydney primarily.
The golden rule is while you force Australians to quarantine when entering your state, you will not have international travel from your state.

 

[ayushamity]

I wouldn’t be surprised if there is a negotiated agreement between NSW/ACT/SA/NT, via the federal government, for access to Taiwan and Singapore,

I agree. In fact, Singapore has itself mentioned that Australians are allowed in without quarantine except Victoria. So they are happy to take in people from only some states.

 

[dajop]

I agree. In fact, Singapore has itself mentioned that Australians are allowed in without quarantine except Victoria. So they are happy to take in people from only some states.

Correct, the requirement is to have not have been in Victoria in the previous 14 days. There is also an additional requirement to undergo testing on arrival and test negative for COVID-19.

 

[jakeseven7]

Correct, the requirement is to have not have been in Victoria in the previous 14 days. There is also an additional requirement to undergo testing on arrival and test negative for COVID-19.

Given in the last week VIC has only had 3 mystery cases, NSW has had one, surely opening VIC up internationally would be on the cards as well, obviously not at the same time but not too far behind.

I don’t think the state borders will hold things up. I wouldn’t be surprised if there is a negotiated agreement between NSW/ACT/SA/NT, via the federal government, for access to Taiwan and Singapore, possibly Vietnam as well. Other states can join when they want to, or miss out as well. Flights will go into Sydney primarily.

NZ has said it will hold things up. Maybe other countries will be less picky.

 

[antycbr]

Given in the last week VIC has only had 3 mystery cases, NSW has had one, surely opening VIC up internationally would be on the cards as well, obviously not at the same time but not too far behind.


NZ has said it will hold things up. Maybe other countries will be less picky.

They already are being less picky - Singapore would be happy to get some inbound travel no matter where in Australia.

 

[ayushamity]

Just FYI - NZ being picky is an election stunt. Their election is a week away. It will change after the election

 

[antycbr]

Just FYI - NZ being picky is an election stunt. Their election is a week away. It will change after the election

Sounds vaguely familiar.