Predictions of when international flights may resume/bans lifted

[dajop]

Given in the last week VIC has only had 3 mystery cases, NSW has had one, surely opening VIC up internationally would be on the cards as well, obviously not at the same time but not too far behind.

That is entirely up to the Singapore government. I live in hope that by early January that it will be. But I think the government here is just looking at spread (regardless of linked or mystery cases) happening within the broader community (ie excluding international arrivals), so the daily cases - and total number of active cases in VIC - is the critical metric for them.

 

[HappyFlyerFamily]

I wonder whether the Federal government will hold up incoming flights to ‘recalcitrant’ State until say 2-3 months of not putting their borders back up. So it’s not a situation of 1 day State border now, next day incoming international flights allowed.

 

[Pushka]

Erase plans for Europe and US all of 2021! Rising COVID cases take Europe and US off the travel list for next year

It’s just an opinion.

 

[MEL_Traveller]

I don’t think the state borders will hold things up. I wouldn’t be surprised if there is a negotiated agreement between NSW/ACT/SA/NT, via the federal government, for access to Taiwan and Singapore, possibly Vietnam as well. Other states can join when they want to, or miss out as well. Flights will go into Sydney primarily.
The golden rule is while you force Australians to quarantine when entering your state, you will not have international travel from your state.

i wonder if there are any constitutional issues in discriminating between residents of different states in this scenario? If no constitutional issues, the political ramifications could make this option unappealing (if Vic were banned from travelling but all other states were allowed, how would voters take that at the next election?)

 

[antycbr]

i wonder if there are any constitutional issues in discriminating between residents of different states in this scenario? If no constitutional issues, the political ramifications could make this option unappealing (if Vic were banned from travelling but all other states were allowed, how would voters take that at the next election?)

States would be loathe to take on the Feds in this regard as it would lead straight to their own border controls being challenged.
Vic won’t be discriminated against as they have never closed their borders other than by mutual agreement with the Commonwealth. Other counties may take a different view but I suspect will seek guidance from the Commonwealth.

The main target of this policy is not Victoria. It is Queensland and WA (and possibly Tasmania).

 

[Melburnian1]

Erase plans for Europe and US all of 2021! Rising COVID cases take Europe and US off the travel list for next year

Not only is it 'just an opinion' as Pushka so sagaciously commented, he also at this stage has no more idea than the rest of us, with the exception that in Cabinet he contributes to the discussions that if negative enough can proscribe us from departing our nation.

I've always done a private 'risk analysis' of destinations and so, on previous trips to South America decided to omit Colombia - if these were today I'd include it - and have deliberately omitted the African continent, silly as that may appear to some on AFF.

 

[kpc]

It’s just an opinion.

...but a more educated opinion with inside knowledge of what the government is currently thinking

 

[NoName]

Not only is it 'just an opinion' as Pushka so sagaciously commented, he also at this stage has no more idea than the rest of us, with the exception that in Cabinet he contributes to the discussions that if negative enough can proscribe us from departing our nation.

I've always done a private 'risk analysis' of destinations and so, on previous trips to South America decided to omit Colombia - if these were today I'd include it - and have deliberately omitted the African continent, silly as that may appear to some on AFF.

No only that, the very first sentence says “.....if there is NO vaccine” which is essentially what everyone already knew.

 

[Melburnian1]

...but a more educated opinion with inside knowledge of what the government is currently thinking

Politicians may be malleable if sufficient pressure - internal or external - is applied. Usually it's not a bad decision that so much catches them out, it's when they lie or continually obfuscate about such decisions, as we're seeing with a certain gentleman in Victoria.

 

[MEL_Traveller]

States would be loathe to take on the Feds in this regard as it would lead straight to their own border controls being challenged.

The federal government doesn't need to worry about state governments challenging restrictions... they need to worry about the voters. If Queenslanders/West Australians feel they are being unjustly discriminated they will vote accordingly at the next election. I suspect that's part of the reason why the Feds haven't pushed border opening more... they need the votes.

 

[jakeseven7]

States with domestic border shut will not receive international flights

---
Australia in talks with Japan, Singapore about travel arrangements, Prime Minister confirms


Prime Minister Scott Morrison says the government is in talks with Japan, South Korea and Singapore about future travel arrangements.

With New South Wales and the Northern Territory to begin accepting New Zealand arrivals from Friday, the Prime Minister told Sunrise on Monday that the government has been cautiously planning for Australians to be able to travel internationally.

Mr Morrison also said that state borders should only be closed "for as long as they have to be".

His comments confirm reports in The Sydney Morning Herald and The Age on Sunday in which government sources said nations with low numbers of COVID-19 cases such as Japan, Singapore, Taiwan and Pacific Island nations would be considered for travel.

As it happened: Victoria records 15 new COVID-19 cases as calls for mandatory masks in NSW renewed; Australian death toll stands at 898

Victoria and the rest of Australia continue to battle the impacts of COVID-19.

www.smh.com.au

 

[hb13]

We should also see the overseas travel ban extension until December 17 being the last extension as before that we will have data from Pfizer and AZD vaccines, which we will see unrestricted outbound travel and return in hotel quarantine for most countries.
The number of countries affected will reduce as vaccine is being rolled out and ultimately we see quarantine scrapped towards the end of 2021.
I am hoping International students will be able to return in February, if vaccines can commence rollout we might see some requiring less time in quarantine or no quarantine at all.

What is your basis for data from the Pfizer and AZD vaccines coming before December 17? I hope you are right, but what's your evidence for it? Because for example, the AZD vaccine Phase 3 trial till today is still on hold in the US - it has resumed in the UK, however, it also began in the UK much later than in the US.

And I think the government came out and said no international students till end of 2021.

 

[hb13]

So with the 2 vaccines you have mentioned they will not be ready by december.The Phase 111 trials may finish them but then the FDA requires 2 months data of safety.then a review process which may take another 2 months.
As well the Pfizer Vaccine requires a cold chain of -70C.That is difficult so no way can it be distributed quickly.
As to the AZD vaccine it's Phase 111 trial has just resumed after a month's pause.

COVID-19 vaccine AZD1222 clinical trial resumed in Japan, follows restart of trials in the UK, Brazil, South Africa and India

www.astrazeneca.com

I agree that we won't see a thing this year from any of those two vaccines.

Also, regarding the AZD vaccine, it's still on pause in the US, while in the UK and India it is currently in Phase 2/3 trials - so these may take a while. They have been in Phase 3 in Brazil and South Africa for a while. There may be some data "leaked" from those parts of the trial possibly by year's end.

But all in all, a pretty sobering thought now at the end of 2020 that a vaccine won't be around till late 2021.

Post automatically merged: Oct 12, 2020

It’s just an opinion.

Unfortunately without an effective vaccine by the end of this year, it'll become reality.

 

[p--and--t]

I now would predict international travel to NZ should resume before Christmas, except Victoria possibly. NZ is having their electiom later this month and I would say COVID border closure against safe state of Australia is only an election stunt. Once election is over Jacinda would have no choice but to open Australia to NZ hopefully December/January.

We should also see the overseas travel ban extension until December 17 being the last extension as before that we will have data from Pfizer and AZD vaccines, which we will see unrestricted outbound travel and return in hotel quarantine for most countries.
The number of countries affected will reduce as vaccine is being rolled out and ultimately we see quarantine scrapped towards the end of 2021.
I am hoping International students will be able to return in February, if vaccines can commence rollout we might see some requiring less time in quarantine or no quarantine at all.

I think it will resume in June/July. May will be a little early in particular we even haven't got restaurants back on yet.
So I would suggest going to NZ during Queen's birthday holiday will not be realistic, but Term 2/3 holiday to NZ will be in cards.
I hope Term 3/4 holiday will open more countries, such as Singapore and Hong Kong etc so that we can visit our families soon.

If the Oxford University trial is successful on Humans, that means that a vaccine will be available from September, which if we can successfully acquire vaccines to vaccinate the high risk group, we might be able to open our borders sooner, hopefully before the end of the year.

It will be too long and not so realistic, because Jacinda Adern has already meeting with the national cabinet today.
My guess is that Domestic and NZ will open around the same time in June and July, followed by selected Asian Countries from August (Such as Hong Kong and Singapore) and Europe will be towards the end of the year.

I would suggest that would be to selective destinations only.
Eventually we will see testing before allowed to enter Australia, but I think October is not a forseeable future, as a vaccine will be available by then, according to Oxford University.

Your endless optimism and unrealistic guesses (and some misinformation) are amazing, if misplaced.

 

[jgreenspoon]

Interestingly from a domestic travel perspective, this morning was the first time in six months of fortnightly flying from Sydney that I have had to wait more than 30 seconds at security. The line was > 5 mins and the line for coffee in the packed qantas lounge was even longer.
A strange sight after it being like a ghost town for so long...

 

[dajop]

---
Australia in talks with Japan, Singapore about travel arrangements, Prime Minister confirms


Prime Minister Scott Morrison says the government is in talks with Japan, South Korea and Singapore about future travel arrangements.

Australian government does not need to be "in talks" with Singapore about travel arrangements. The ball regarding travel between Singapore and Australia (exc. Vic) is in the Australian government's court. Singapore is allowing people who have been in Australia (outside Victoria) for all of the previous 14 days to enter and move freely within the small island if they test negative on arrival. The thing that is impeding free travel is that Australia won't let Singapore residents in, and it won't let Australian residents out, and requires Australian Singapore residents to do 14 days quarantine on arrival in Australia. All decisions of the Australian government.

 

[trippin_the_rift]

No only that, the very first sentence says “.....if there is NO vaccine” which is essentially what everyone already knew.

Kinda weird how every media article talks about vaccines and uses words like scary/alarming.
It's called projecting and is a well-established psychological method for pre-paving thoughts into the subconscious. Basically meaning, whatever you read from a credible source is accepted as fact. You then act on that information and that thing you read then starts to become reality. So if the media were to constantly report that the Sydney Swans will win the premiership this next year - like magic - they would, because that thought is subconsciously drilled into the heads of everyone reading it on a daily basis and the collective energy movement in that direction would mean it will happen. It's a fascinating subject!

Australian government does not need to be "in talks" with Singapore about travel arrangements. The ball regarding travel between Singapore and Australia (exc. Vic) is in the Australian government's court. Singapore is allowing people who have been in Australia (outside Victoria) for all of the previous 14 days to enter and move freely within the small island if they test negative on arrival. The thing that is impeding free travel is that Australia won't let Singapore residents in, and it won't let Australian residents out, and requires Australian Singapore residents to do 14 days quarantine on arrival in Australia. All decisions of the Australian government.

In my opinion, the Australian Government should financially support ALL airlines that fly to Australia. There is a demand for traffic in and out. There are countless Australians who can't get into Australia and the number of chances of developing covid from flying is 1 in 27 million according to the latest IATA report - Research Points to Low Risk for COVID-19 Transmission Inflight

 

[trevella]

Bloomberg - Are you a robot?

Not really sure why Japan even warrants a mention... bubbling away at around 500 cases a day, testing rate pitiful... Australia’s strategy would have to be completely overhauled to make any sort of pre-vaccine arrangement feasible.

Meanwhile the stress on Japan’s medical system is approximately zero.

 

[dajop]

Not really sure why Japan even warrants a mention... bubbling away at around 500 cases a day, testing rate pitiful... Australia’s strategy would have to be completely overhauled to make any sort of pre-vaccine arrangement feasible.

Singapore testing rate (outside the worker dormitories) I suspect similarly low. You basically can't get a test unless you need one to travel, or your doctor refers you, and you have a fever, or severe coughing. None of this "slightest symptom, get a test".

 

[trevella]

Singapore testing rate (outside the worker dormitories) I suspect similarly low. You basically can't get a test unless you need one to travel, or your doctor refers you, and you have a fever, or severe coughing. None of this "slightest symptom, get a test".

Still, average tests of 26,700 per day over the past week is decent, even including the dormitories.

MOH | Updates on COVID-19 (Coronavirus Disease 2019) Local Situation

Japan’s been doing under 20,000 with a somewhat larger population.