Predictions of when international flights may resume/bans lifted

[jakeseven7]

They would be followed by those aged under 65 who have a moderate risk level.

Obviously excluding all the immuno supressed and other chronic health conditions like diabetes, I wonder if they will prioritise any of the overweight / obese population?

 

[ayushamity]

They say the timeline "has not changed" - what is the timeline?

Health minister 'confident' Australia will have the COVID vaccine as early as January

Greg Hunt says he is "much more optimistic" in regards to when a COVID vaccine will be available.

7news.com.au

I knew I read January somewhere

 

[jakeseven7]

Infectious disease expert backs limited travel bubbles for Australia

Australia will become a "hermit nation" unless it accepts the additional COVID-19 risks with setting up travel bubbles with Singapore, South Korea, Japan and New Zealand, a leading infectious disease experts warns.

The Japanese government on Tuesday welcomed a mooted opening of the borders with Australia, expressing hope that travel will resume soon as both countries were in a "relatively good position" in suppressing COVID-19.

The Australian National University's Professor Peter Collignon said the travel bubbles should start with New Zealand followed by select Asia-Pacific countries that have managed to contain the spread of COVID-19.

"We can’t be a hermit nation for two, three, four or five years but whatever we do, we have to keep risks to a minimum," he said.

Trade Minister Simon Birmingham said last weekend that travel to Europe or the United States was very unlikely in 2021 in the absence of a vaccine.

However, Prime Minister Scott Morrison acknowledged talks to open up travel were taking place with other low-risk nations in the Asia-Pacific, starting with New Zealand.

It is likely travel bubbles that are quarantine-free with countries such as Japan and South Korea will start in 2021.

'We can't be a hermit nation': Infectious disease expert backs select travel bubbles

 

[RAM]

I'm not as negative on the future of QF as jb747.
If they need another $2 bn they could go and raise that tomorrow (even if it is at a deeply discounted rate).

Like all airlines though, they do face plenty of challenges.

Somewhat perversely it might be better being the weaker airlines in this crisis.
As we've seen with Norwegian and Virgin Aus, and the current proposal around AirAsiaX,
It's a big opportunity to right size and permanently reduce cost bases, and lenders and lessors have few other options.

Apart from a few select bubbles I'm resigned to no international travel in 2021.

Perhaps go back and have a look at post #2,487 for detail on just how poor Q's financial state is. That was back at 30 June, now the JobKeeper has rolled down & the ACCC has made it clear Q has to refund in cash ALL flights that it cancelled (if requested) as well as payout the previously announced redundancies (created the liability but did not pay out pre-June 30th) - Q is on the ropes.

Q's retail issue failed and was extended without success - finally raising just $77m before costs, or to put it into perspective less than two weeks operational cash burn. If Q had not entered into some financial wizardry then they would have had a significant operating loss but their reclassification of multi-hundred million fuel hedge losses in H2 2019/20 despite taking the H1 profits as 'operational' saw them disguise the outcome.

JB747 is on-the-money - VA went into administration aka failed. If the Federal Govt had not waived the 'trading while insolvent' rules then Q may not have made it past 30 June 2020.

Q's problem is that their valuations of airframes & spares are way above their market values. One of the companies Q has used in the past to provide favourable valuations went on record a few months back stating that values had fallen more than 17% (the best outcome) and in the high 20%s for others since 31 Dec 2019.

This did not take into account valuation of A380s which have a secondary market value of close to zero - not what they are valued at in Q's books even after an approx $1bn write-down.

Q's institutional equity raising of 26 June 2020 was very opportunistic as was their unsecured $550m raising just before their preliminary final results came out. Q does face an 'Emperor's new clothes' moment with its share price very much defying gravity currently.

As international flying is going to be hamstrung for at least another 8 months - then Q has a very large deadweight sitting requiring ongoing maintenance while aging in numerous locations around the world incuring storage costs. Then add in Q's around 2,000,000 sqm of leased premises, lounges, offices, call centres and you start to appreciate the challenge. To put this into perspective Q's head office in Mascot is covered by a 12yr lease for 47,000 sqm of space. Some months back it started trying to sub-lease around 40% of it for the remaining lease period. So far no takers for a purpose-built fitout designed specifically for Q's requirements.

 

[hb13]

J&J Vaccine trial halted due to mystery illness:

J&J Halts Covid-19 Vaccine Trial Due to Unexplained Illness

Johnson & Johnson halted clinical trials of its Covid-19 vaccine after a participant fell ill, the second time that a front-runner developer has paused testing in the race to create a viable immunization against the virus.

www.bloomberg.com

This is just another reminder that as quickly as the vaccines are progressing - we have a long way to go to get a safe and effective vaccine.

Let's hope this trial is resumed quickly, because of all the vaccines in trials, this one is the easiest to distribute and only requires one jab.

 

[jakeseven7]

DFAT just released the official waiting list number (of Australians registered with them to return immediately) - has gone up again to 29,500.

Unofficial estimates (not registered) at 100,000.

 

[jakeseven7]

Qantas to run charter flights into Darwin, utilise an expanded Howard Springs coronavirus quarantine facility in bid to get more Australians home


Thousands more Australians stranded overseas will be able to get home sooner under an expansion of quarantine processing in Darwin.

The ABC understands the Howard Springs Facility, 25 kilometres south of Darwin, will process about 1,000 international returnees a month on a fortnight rotation of 500, beginning within weeks.

Flights will fly direct to the RAAF Base Darwin, with passengers immediately taken to Howard Springs for 14 days' mandatory quarantine.

It is understood there will be eight flights, run by Qantas, starting as early as next week — four from London and four from India.

Flights from London will cost $2,000 per person while flights from India are expected to be less, around $1,000.

The flights will be underwritten by the Federal Government.

People will be flown back on Qantas Dreamliners which will be able to carry 236 passengers back per trip.

Northern Territory Chief Minister Michael Gunner is flying to Sydney to announce the multi-million-dollar "scaling up" of Howard Springs after tomorrow's National Cabinet meeting, alongside Prime Minister Scott Morrison.

It is understood Mr Morrison will also announce a further lifting of caps on international arrivals.

To meet increased medical requirements for the Howard Springs centre, extra doctors, nurses and other staff will be hired from across Australia to boost the surge capacity of the Darwin-based National Critical Care and Trauma Response Centre.

It is expected that returnees will have to pay for their stay at Howard Springs. Those unable to pay will be offered HECS-style loans.

Under current arrangements for domestic quarantine at Howard Springs, individuals pay $2,500 each and families of two or more pay $5,000.

Thousands more stranded Australians could start flying home as early as next week under a new government plan

Flights from the United Kingdom and India could start bringing thousands of stranded Australians home as early as next week. It is part of a plan to expand quarantine processing in Darwin.

www.abc.net.au

 

[dajop]

Flights will fly direct to the RAAF Base Darwin, with passengers immediately taken to Howard Springs for 14 days' mandatory quarantine.

Quite well thought through the spin on this decision. Many of us know that RAAF Base Darwin is at DRW. But the spin doctors deliberately chose to use the words "fly direct to RAAF Base Darwin" , as obviously sounds better for public consumption than "fly direct to Darwin Airport".

 

[antycbr]

Quite well thought through the spin on this decision. Many of us know that RAAF Base Darwin is at DRW. But the spin doctors deliberately chose to use the words "fly direct to RAAF Base Darwin" , as obviously sounds better for public consumption than "fly direct to Darwin Airport".

Scomo was a marketing person originally.

Depends if they do immigration clearance at the passenger terminal or somewhere else, perhaps for distancing reasons using a RAAF hanger might be easier than the small DRW terminal, especially with 787s turning up.

 

[OZDUCK]

Glad to see that this is finally happening. I had heard the NT Chief Minister say a couple of weeks ago that he had made this same suggestion several times over the previous month or so with no action being taken.

 

[jakeseven7]

Glad to see that this is finally happening. I had heard the NT Chief Minister say a couple of weeks ago that he had made this same suggestion several times over the previous month or so with no action being taken.

Its a start at least, although Qantas will need to make 128 flights to clear the 'want to come home immediately' registration list.....

The list is huge.

The other states will have to pitch in very soon with something similar to make a dent....

 

[OZDUCK]

Its a start at least, although Qantas will need to make 128 flights to clear the 'want to come home immediately' registration list.....

The list is huge.

The other states will have to pitch in very soon with something similar to make a dent....

The difference is that the NT has a 3,000 bed facility available. Even with 'distancing' they will still be able to fit in that 1,000 monthly figure. I doubt any other state would have a similar facility available. The Federal Govt' has indicated previously that they were not prepared/able to open up any of their assets for a similar scheme. I also think that the shortage of suitably trained staff would be a problem for any similar expansion in one spot..

 

[jakeseven7]

The difference is that the NT has a 3,000 bed facility available. Even with 'distancing' they will still be able to fit in that 1,000 monthly figure. I doubt any other state would have a similar facility available. The Federal Govt' has indicated previously that they were not prepared/able to open up any of their assets for a similar scheme. I also think that the shortage of suitably trained staff would be a problem for any similar expansion in one spot..

I wonder what the solution is then... Plenty of empty hotels in the Gold Coast? FNQ? Because even if Darwin was run at full capacity it would take over 2 years at current rates to clear the backlog...

 

[HappyFlyerFamily]

With this development, you have to feel for those trying to get a refund or credit for business class seats say for a family of 4. Some air lines might not let go of the money

 

[kpc]

At least 2 years according to the Singaporeans, which is a more pessimistic time frame compared to that given by the Australian Government ....

The global aviation industry will take at least two years to recover from the coronavirus pandemic and mass travel to return, Singapore's Transport Minister Ong Ye Kung said, stressing the importance of developing a widely available and effective vaccine to help countries open their borders.

Mass air travel's return at least two years away: Ong Ye Kung

Singapore will need to review its plans for Changi's Terminal 5, he said. Read more at straitstimes.com.

www.straitstimes.com

 

[MEL_Traveller]

I don’t understand why we are chartering long haul flights?? There are thousands of spare seats already flying in to SYD, why not pick up the quarantine pax from there and fly them to darwin?

 

[focusedbear]

Well, it looks like HK and Singapore are creating a travel bubble. It'll be interesting to see how it works and whether it's a model for other countries to adopt.

Hong Kong, Singapore agree on ‘world’s first’ two-way Covid-19 travel bubble

Travel arrangement eliminates quarantine for residents of both cities, requires travellers to prove they have tested negative for coronavirus.

www.scmp.com

 

[dajop]

I don’t understand why we are chartering long haul flights?? There are thousands of spare seats already flying in to SYD, why not pick up the quarantine pax from there and fly them to darwin?

I’m sure it could be arranged for SQ, QR and others - who are flying planes with no passengers into MEL - could reroute some services via DRW to take Europe originating passengers. It seems silly that you have empty planes coming to Australia and there will be empty planes flying from Australia, half way around the world to collect passengers.

 

[jakeseven7]

Glad to see that this is finally happening. I had heard the NT Chief Minister say a couple of weeks ago that he had made this same suggestion several times over the previous month or so with no action being taken.

So the centre will churn out 500 people every fortnight, assuming a majority of those will leave Darwin almost straight away...

WA will have to open its borders to the NT to repatriate its own citizens..... surely they wouldn't make them quarantine again in Perth?

Qantas will probably have to put on more flights from Darwin to other states as well to clear them out! (every fortnight)

 

[HappyFlyerFamily]

Gives Qantas some business both international and domestic