Predictions of when international flights may resume/bans lifted

[ethernet]

Late 2021 for OS travel says pollies.
Meanwhile Qld health person says vaccines are likely to be only 50% or so effective, and arrangements are unsustainable (certainly for retailers). Thomas Borody's solutions seems the answer Ivermectin Triple Therapy Protocol for COVID-19 to Australian GP
We will go broke unless something different is tried - and when the vaccine myth is busted, and lots of angry voters nursing a big grudge.

 

[hb13]

Late 2021 for OS travel says pollies.
Meanwhile Qld health person says vaccines are likely to be only 50% or so effective, and arrangements are unsustainable (certainly for retailers). Thomas Borody's solutions seems the answer Ivermectin Triple Therapy Protocol for COVID-19 to Australian GP
We will go broke unless something different is tried - and when the vaccine myth is busted, and lots of angry voters nursing a big grudge.

That's based on a vaccine being widely available at some point in mid-late 2021 - which is looking less likely by the day.

You are right - the economic pain will be incredibly horrendous when all is said and done. The thing is, 2021 is possibly looking worse than 2020 economically, when you take everything into consideration, such as the ever increasing tensions between us and China - our biggest trading partner.

 

[Pushka]

At the moment I’d settle for just trying to get into Perth to see family before I even dream of seeing overseas family again!

Sure. But many have close family overseas. If we aren't able to see sons/daughters/parents in 12 months time then that is not acceptable for many.

In reality no one knows what the vaccine front looks like so guessing on that probably isn't a worthwhile exercise. When swine flu hit, eventually people just accepted it and got on with life. We traveled to Singapore when SARS was active. We seem to have reverted to 1919.

 

[jakeseven7]

Sure. But many have close family overseas. If we aren't able to see sons/daughters/parents in 12 months time then that is not acceptable for many.

In reality no one knows what the vaccine front looks like so guessing on that probably isn't a worthwhile exercise. When swine flu hit, eventually people just accepted it and got on with life. We traveled to Singapore when SARS was active. We seem to have reverted to 1919.

Totally - I’m in exactly the same boat as you with close family overseas too Feel for you

But my point is that people in states that have the disputed & controversial domestic borders (QLD/WA and to some extent TAS) are double penalised.

For example, EVEN if we could get to the UK/Asia/US and back relatively ‘freely’ with quarantine on return, because our home state STILL has travel bans in place domestically we can’t get back here directly because we are banned from having international bubble flights (just repatriation allowed with 3/4month waitlist and J only $$$) so we realistically have to go via another state, most likely Sydney, which is also banned which means we have to serve double quarantine.... 4 weeks. Roughly 6k per person.... and I doubt I (or anyone in same boat) would get an exemption because even people with terminal cancer get denied here in QLD.

At least a South Australian flying back home into Sydney can just serve one bout of quarantine and then free to fly straight back to Adelaide

Anyway too depressing!

 

[Danger]

The truth of it is, Australia is a tourist destination, $60b a year they need to give their B*lls a tug and give a date when they are going to open up, this is a virus that you have to get tested to even see if you have it, that has 99% survival rate and we are shutting down the entire fkin world because of it ...

And what's the cost to the economy of achieving that 99% survival rate? My understanding is that the survival figure doesn't arise because infected people simply stay at home, watch Netflix and pop the odd Panadol. If you've got 100 people infected and it costs the economy $10 a person to keep them alive, that's $990. If 1000 people are infected, it costs the economy $9990. If it costs $100 to build a school, having to treat only 100 people means an opportunity cost of nine schools. But if you've got to treat 1000, well ...

I'm as keen as mustard to be able to move freely and to travel again, but I think we need to look at the whole picture. I don't think anyone can argue that in Australia, at least, the severe restrictions have not significantly limited our caseload. I would hazard a guess that the majority of Australians largely had no issue with the strict approach Australian governments took but I think the question for most is, have we reached the point where that approach is no longer necessary or at least economically viable?

 

[ethernet]

I heard somewhere 'Do not undermine the promise of a vaccine' to the leaders and spokepersons managing this s**tshow. Compounding this is Australia's 'Covid Elimination' strategy - not management. The fear behind that - is state budgets, plus the fact that the Cwth is subsidising most, but not all thrown on the scrapheap. I doubt the cwth will ponyup ANOTHER full year of free money, and eviction protections.

Operations Research (OR) is the solution that will be applied when sanity prevails. We need to put a price on deaths, forced evictions, and job multiplier effects.
When the 50% odd* effective vaccines (with booster) mean that everyone under 40 can party hardy, isolation for oldies will be a prickly problem - Do we ban grey nomads and healthy walking 80yo's from eating in cafes and restaurants? Can't very well keep then contained in caravan parks?
I don't see Australia adopting the Swedish model, post vaccine.

I knew Victoria will never reach its containment goal, and the PR spin on the stupid is amazing. I note most Victorians did not pay their Covid fines. Thus Victoria will have to lock down the economically deplorable postcodes with a ring of police, in order to drain wells of infection.

 

[hb13]

And what's the cost to the economy of achieving that 99% survival rate? My understanding is that the survival figure doesn't arise because infected people simply stay at home, watch Netflix and pop the odd Panadol. If you've got 100 people infected and it costs the economy $10 a person to keep them alive, that's $990. If 1000 people are infected, it costs the economy $9990. If it costs $100 to build a school, having to treat only 100 people means an opportunity cost of nine schools. But if you've got to treat 1000, well ...

I'm as keen as mustard to be able to move freely and to travel again, but I think we need to look at the whole picture. I don't think anyone can argue that in Australia, at least, the severe restrictions have not significantly limited our caseload. I would hazard a guess that the majority of Australians largely had no issue with the strict approach Australian governments took but I think the question for most is, have we reached the point where that approach is no longer necessary or at least economically viable?

I think it is also important to highlight the mental illness issues as well as the economic costs.

It appears as though most people were supportive of the severe restrictions, however, what happens next? It is clear to Australians everywhere now that the government has one plan - keep the country locked till there is a successful vaccine and the world is Covid-free. That will take years. In the case of Victorians - how long will they continue to be locked up for? They have an average of under 9 new cases per day and Daniel Andrews just said they need to continue lockdown for weeks????

 

[jb747]

They have an average of under 9 new cases per day and Daniel Andrews just said they need to continue lockdown for weeks????

Probably the only thing to do, given that he has no idea how to get the economy to restart. I presume he's got a retirement home in Qld.

 

[drron]

It's not just the mental and economic problems either.Many health conditions are already having increased mortality.This week a person admitted with terminal cancer.This happened because the necessary biopsy was put off for 3 months/The largest risk factor for increased mortality in cancer is delayed diagnosis.But things like heart disease has already caused increased mortality as the survival rate for out of hospital cardiac arrest has gone down 50% in periods of lockdowns.

 

[MEL_Traveller]

It is clear to Australians everywhere now that the government has one plan - keep the country locked till there is a successful vaccine and the world is Covid-free. That will take years.

Well, it's not clear to me. I don't recall the government ever saying that we will be banned from travel, or receiving inbound pax until the world is 'covid free'. Even if we take the latest estimated timescale, the Feds are saying travel by late 2021. (Best case is sometime mid-2021.)

 

[dajop]

IIn the case of Victorians - how long will they continue to be locked up for?

Melburnians, not Victorians!!!!!

Regional Victorians, whilst restricted, are living much freer lives. Everyone is hoping that Sunday will see some more reasonable restrictions for Melbourne, but unfortunately not allowing back and forth with regional Vic, and doesn't look like much in the way of hospitality or shopping will be re-opening.

 

[Pushka]

It's not just the mental and economic problems either.Many health conditions are already having increased mortality.This week a person admitted with terminal cancer.This happened because the necessary biopsy was put off for 3 months/The largest risk factor for increased mortality in cancer is delayed diagnosis.But things like heart disease has already caused increased mortality as the survival rate for out of hospital cardiac arrest has gone down 50% in periods of lockdowns.

Yeah. I just got a call from the GP’s office for a follow up appt to discuss the results of a blood test I’d put off since June. I’m hoping it’s just my wacky thyroid again.

 

[hb13]

Well, it's not clear to me. I don't recall the government ever saying that we will be banned from travel, or receiving inbound pax until the world is 'covid free'. Even if we take the latest estimated timescale, the Feds are saying travel by late 2021. (Best case is sometime mid-2021.)

Well then what has the government said? Apart from the fact that they're waiting for a vaccine?

Is it going to be clear when the government actually comes out and explicitly says we are locking down until we are under X number of active cases worldwide?

You talk about timescales, when they mean absolutely nothing. If we look at ALL the "estimated timescales" from March till now, every single one of them has been pushed back. And right now, where we are in the world, things are worse than ever and going in the wrong direction. I don't know if you have seen the latest numbers, but the UK is at 20k cases per day. France 30k cases a day. The US, back to above 50k cases a day with close to 1k deaths a day.

 

[ayushamity]

Well then what has the government said? Apart from the fact that they're waiting for a vaccine?

The gov is saying wait will vaccine

NO OTHER COUNTRY is waiting for a vaccine to resume normal life. My friends in the states are absolutely shocked that Australia, a progressive country can do this - They use words like 'Beyond Stupid', 'Extreme' etc

It is now clear that the end goal is a vaccine and the Aussie gov is prepared to wait it out. However, long it takes

 

[ayushamity]

You talk about timescales, when they mean absolutely nothing. If we look at ALL the "estimated timescales" from March till now, every single one of them has been pushed back

That's my biggest gripe. There is no certainty because it always gets pushed back

When will I be able to see my fiance again ? When will I be able to resume a normal life with her again ? Get married. Have kids

It good be 2022/2023/2024 for goodness sake. I don't' know. Lost all trust in the government.

Even my work is sympathizing and tell me I can leave next day after borders open.

 

[MEL_Traveller]

Well then what has the government said? Apart from the fact that they're waiting for a vaccine?

Is it going to be clear when the government actually comes out and explicitly says we are locking down until we are under X number of active cases worldwide?

You talk about timescales, when they mean absolutely nothing. If we look at ALL the "estimated timescales" from March till now, every single one of them has been pushed back. And right now, where we are in the world, things are worse than ever and going in the wrong direction. I don't know if you have seen the latest numbers, but the UK is at 20k cases per day. France 30k cases a day. The US, back to above 50k cases a day with close to 1k deaths a day.

We are still in the initial period of learning about the virus. In addition to the vaccine we are also looking at other treatments and preventative measures. If the first batch of vaccines don't work, I fully expect there to be a reassessment of how we are going to deal with covid.

But we haven't got there yet! IIRC we are expecting some findings from Phase 3 trials by the end of this year. That date hasn't come forward.

 

[jellybelly]

If Australia was to achieve a complete elimination strategy and keep international borders closed would our economy be in better shape than countries who are continually moving between diffferent stages of lockdown?

 

[hb13]

We are still in the initial period of learning about the virus. In addition to the vaccine we are also looking at other treatments and preventative measures. If the first batch of vaccines don't work, I fully expect there to be a reassessment of how we are going to deal with covid.

But we haven't got there yet! IIRC we are expecting some findings from Phase 3 trials by the end of this year. That date hasn't come forward.

How do we then put timelines on something we don't know? You say best case scenario mid-2021, the government says end of 2021, yet we don't know anything. There is literally nothing we know about the vaccines apart from that two of the front-runners have had to be paused because of people getting sick. One of them is still paused world-wide (J&J) and the other is still paused in the US (AZD) because the illness seems pretty severe.

And for the record, regarding phase three trials, ALL those dates have been moved.

Moderna said by september we will know something (not even a peep from them). Pfizer said they think they will have approval by October and AZD+Oxford also we should know results by September - not approval, but we should know something. Yet, absolutely nothing.

Don't get me wrong, I really, really, desperately want a vaccine, therapeutic, mass rapid testing, or anything that can speed up the global recovery and get us back on the road. I really, desperately want to see my family - as I'm sure millions do. But we need to stop living in this fantasy land by putting dates and timelines that are completely redundant until we actually know something for sure.

Furthermore, we need to realise this thing is here to stay. We need to hold the government accountable and ask them the difficult questions, such as: Why they are asleep at the wheel and letting the economy go to sh** instead of trying to find a strategy to live with this?

 

[MEL_Traveller]

How do we then put timelines on something we don't know? You say best case scenario mid-2021, the government says end of 2021, yet we don't know anything. There is literally nothing we know about the vaccines apart from that two of the front-runners have had to be paused because of people getting sick. One of them is still paused world-wide (J&J) and the other is still paused in the US (AZD) because the illness seems pretty severe.

And for the record, regarding phase three trials, ALL those dates have been moved.

Moderna said by september we will know something (not even a peep from them). Pfizer said they think they will have approval by October and AZD+Oxford also we should know results by September - not approval, but we should know something. Yet, absolutely nothing.

Don't get me wrong, I really, really, desperately want a vaccine, therapeutic, mass rapid testing, or anything that can speed up the global recovery and get us back on the road. I really, desperately want to see my family - as I'm sure millions do. But we need to stop living in this fantasy land by putting dates and timelines that are completely redundant until we actually know something for sure.

Furthermore, we need to realise this thing is here to stay. We need to hold the government accountable and ask them the difficult questions, such as: Why they are asleep at the wheel and letting the economy go to sh** instead of trying to find a strategy to live with this?

I guess we all have different coping mechanisms.

I'm happy to wait until the end of the year to get some word on the vaccine + other developments. Much longer than that and I agree we're going to need to look at other options. I think we have to set some timeframe to give science a chance before we move on.

 

[tgh]

letting the economy go to sh** instead of trying to find a strategy to live with this

Because alternate strategy models predicate decisions about letting Xn people die.
Politicians are elected by people.. not dollars.. and they are choosing to avoid mass genocide.
I guess there may , conceptually, be a political movement that prioritises economic comfort over lives.. some posters here may be founding members.
Savvy state politicians , reading the polls, have decided to be so cautious it is painful..BUT THE THE POLLS ARE TELLING THEM THAT IS WHAT THE PEOPLE WANT…..
Y'all want something different.. get elected….