Predictions of when international flights may resume/bans lifted

[Pom-DownUnder]

not opening for the next YEAR!?!!? feels like madness to me, even jobkeeper only looks at late march

 

[jakeseven7]

not opening for the next YEAR!?!!? feels like madness to me, even jobkeeper only looks at late march

Well I guess a huge majority of their business is linked to international flights of which there will be almost nothing for the foreseeable future until a vaccine....

 

[Pom-DownUnder]

Well I guess a huge majority of their business is linked to international flights of which there will be almost nothing for the foreseeable future until a vaccine....

just makes me wonder what they have based this on, if they have been told reliably that international flights wont resume until oct next year then we should be told about this, i booked a trip in june next year months ago

 

[Pushka]

Received the following today:

View attachment 230867

That’s a year away for Pete’s sake.

 

[antycbr]

That’s a year away for Pete’s sake.

Probably because the property is/will be used for Hotel Quarantine for aircrew for the forseeable future. Given the direct connection to the terminal it would be a logical use of the property.

 

[oznflfan]

just makes me wonder what they have based this on, if they have been told reliably that international flights wont resume until oct next year then we should be told about this, i booked a trip in june next year months ago

We'll be lucky to have free movement & non quarantine travel to NZ by mid next year I reckon, all the talk about end of this year is just that - talk.

 

[oznflfan]

I'm planning July 2022 to UK and France, I give that about an 80% chance of happening.

 

[RAM]

Gives Qantas some business both international and domestic

Given Q quite happily left Australians high & dry by cancelling all international flights from June 8th - it is hard to see why Q should be rewarded so handsomely. If the media release is accurate then Q stands to make around 3x per flight what it did in pre-CV times - underwritten by the Federal Govt.

Meanwhile all the international airlines that the Fed Govt has been penalising by introducing per flight carriage caps - operating at losses in many cases - get nothing? Guess we will never see a Federal ICAC...

The Fed Govt has been able to solve this problem since Q created it (by stopping all international flights). It could actually do what Scomo has been saying and only allow Australians (registered with DFAT to enter Australia). Scomo can announce it - no parliamentary sitting required. The backlog would be cleared within 7 weeks vs 5 months & giving Q a thinly disguised handout.

Smelly, very smelly.

Then consider that NSW was taking 600 per day prior to July 4th - now, with its 'increased' numbers (+100/day) it is only taking 450/day. Still 25% below where it had been. Before the Melb outbreak - Melbourne was taking more than its pre-CV share of international arrivals & Sydney was taking significantly less. For some reason the media do not bother with fact checking except in selective cases. Even if someone sends them the links to BITRE's downloads to prove the figures being quoted are wrong.

August results released today - now a 2 month delay due to 'contact issues'. Seems certain airlines are not answering their phones regularly since July.

International Airline Activity—Monthly Publications

These reports cover monthly international aircraft, passenger, freight and mail movements, flights, available seats, seat load factors and airline market shares. Details are provided for airline, country, city pair and airport.

www.bitre.gov.au

Why weren't all the airlines currently carrying Australians back from South Africa, London, the US or India simply allowed to increase the number of passengers per flight & reschedule the destination of every 2 or 3rd flight to Darwin? That would save the Australian taxpayer tens of millions if combined with strict control of who can enter (must be registered with DFAT).



Drilling down into the report reveals that both Q & VA operated no international flights (despite what Q has been spinning about repatriation flights being >100, DFAT has a fractional number of repatriation flights operated by Q). In August 2019 Q carried over 900,000 passengers internationally & VA 247,000.

Meanwhile all the rest - flew 15,549 people into Australia during August 2020 in planes with 123,900 available seats, leaving 87.5% of seat capacity empty. Be warned the BITRE report is quite misleading - in the tables headed 'Passenger flights' it included freight only flights. Adjusting as best as possible suggests just 460 or so actual passenger flights out of 1,644 so-called international passenger flights into Australia. For example it shows 90 Q (freight) flights arriving with zero passengers, Singapore Airlines is listed as 190 flights but around 160 of those were freight only or 71 Federal Express ones. See what I mean about 'misleading tables'!

So, in August, foreign airlines had empty seats available for 108,351 potential Australians wanting to return to Australia. At that point in time there were only 18,800 registered with DFAT. Despite this, if only Australians registered with DFAT were the only passengers allowed to enter Australia - then less than 4,000 would not have been back in Australia by the end of August without needing to increase the Hotel Quarantine.

Yet these foreign airlines do not receive one cent reward from the Federal Govt but Q does for leaving - why?

Q's 2019/20 Annual Report reveals (tried hard to hide it near the back in the notes) that Q has received $$ millions from both the NZ & Singaporean Govts prior to Q shutting down June 9th (p85). Does not seem fair. Meanwhile of Australian carriers - VA carried around 1/5th of International traffic vs 4/5th for Q. Yet VA gets none of this latest Federal Govt largesse despite its ability to service NZ (carried 1/3rd in Aug 2019) with its B737-800s.

That is if the Australian taxpayer really is required to pay extra when foreign airlines will do it for no Fed Govt funds?

Too much politics, vested interests, snouts-in-the-trough & zero compassion seem to be driving the decisions at the community's expense.

 

[MEL_Traveller]

And if foreign airline flights can’t stop in Darwin (crew hours etc), they could fly to Sydney and a qantas or virgin plane could be waiting to fly pax onwards to Darwin.

I wonder what the tender arrangements are for these flights? Or perhaps there is a list of approved suppliers which have previously gone though a tender process?

 

[dajop]

Given Q quite happily left Australians high & dry by cancelling all international flights from June 8th - it is hard to see why Q should be rewarded so handsomely. If the media release is accurate then Q stands to make around 3x per flight what it did in pre-CV times - underwritten by the Federal Govt.

Meanwhile all the international airlines that the Fed Govt has been penalising by introducing per flight carriage caps - operating at losses in many cases - get nothing? Guess we will never see a Federal ICAC...

As I've said before, it would have saved QF flying an empty plane all the way to London, if they simply arranged with two or three carriers still operating passenger free flights into MEL, to divert their planes from the hubs to DRW enroute to MEL.

The argument is "Oh there's no guarantee that passengers would not have their flights cancelled", but if they allocated specific capacity for say a 2/3 full aircraft, people would not get bumped (noting it's the hub-Australia flights that are causing people to be bumped not the xx_-hub flights).

Post automatically merged: Oct 19, 2020

I wonder what the tender arrangements are for these flights? Or perhaps there is a list of approved suppliers which have previously gone though a tender process?

Would tender arrangements be in place? The government is not paying for the flights, just underwriting any losses, noting passengers from LHR are paying typical return economy fares for a one way economy seat.

 

[RAM]

Would tender arrangements be in place? The government is not paying for the flights, just underwriting any losses, noting passengers from LHR are paying typical return economy fares for a one way economy seat.

No tenders required, just largesse to the Chairman's Q at seemingly a significant increase on their pre-CV margins. Until (if ever) we see the fine detail - the media release suggests that the Federal Govt will cover all variable costs (fuel, labour, landing fees, taxes etc) & Q can charge fares per person direct to the travellers in addition.

 

[MEL_Traveller]

Vaccine in production in Belgium pending final approvals. NHS preparing to start vaccinations around Christmas time: Pfizer video sparks hope COVID-19 vaccine could be ready by December

 

[ayushamity]

Vaccine in production in Belgium pending final approvals. NHS preparing to start vaccinations around Christmas time: Pfizer video sparks hope COVID-19 vaccine could be ready by December

Also heard on the news that the UK will start administering the Oxford Vaccine if successful by Christmas as well

So what's with the timeline of late 2021 for Australia's mass vaccination ? We haven't got a massive population compared to other countries so if one assumes 2 months to manufacture 20 mill doses, that puts vaccination around April next year.

 

[Pushka]

Vaccine in production in Belgium pending final approvals. NHS preparing to start vaccinations around Christmas time: Pfizer video sparks hope COVID-19 vaccine could be ready by December

Christmas Miracle then. Please let it be so.

 

[trevella]

So what's with the timeline of late 2021 for Australia's mass vaccination ?

Given all the massive uncertainties, how sensible would it be to compile a budget premised on anything sooner?

 

[MEL_Traveller]

So what's with the timeline of late 2021 for Australia's mass vaccination ? We haven't got a massive population compared to other countries so if one assumes 2 months to manufacture 20 mill doses, that puts vaccination around April next year.

I think both timelines are right - and they're not mutually exclusive.

IIRC the government was originally talking kind of March for approval, and starting roll out mid 2021. We could then expect mass vaccination to be completed by end 2021. So in a phased approach, six months to administer 20 million doses is probably about right. The flu vaccine takes us about 2-3 months for everyone to get it that wants it?

it's interesting that the doses are starting to be manufactured now, pending final approval. Most people assume it's a 'finish-start' relationship... that approval must come before manufacture can even be contemplated. That in itself pushed timelines out significantly.

 

[ayushamity]

I know this topic has been discussed to death but would international travel be restarting when vaccination commences ? Or when vaccine shows a decrease in covid numbers ?

There is a HUGE difference between those two timeframes. If vaccine approved and starts getting administered, looking at maybe Easter 2021 but if they are waiting for vaccine to be effective, god knows when that will happen. Vaccine is not a silver bullet and depending on effectiveness, it might not make that much of a difference in Australia.

Vaccine even at 50% efficacy will make a massive difference in Europe where there are thousands of cases a day but are unlikely to affect numbers here when it is like 2 cases a day.

That brings to my next point - Travel to low risk countries. Countries like Vietnam and Singapore are preparing to re open travel selectively irrespective of vaccine. So maybe the biggest effectiveness for vaccines on travel will be Europe/USA.

 

[oznflfan]

I know this topic has been discussed to death but would international travel be restarting when vaccination commences ? Or when vaccine shows a decrease in covid numbers ?

There is a HUGE difference between those two timeframes. If vaccine approved and starts getting administered, looking at maybe Easter 2021 but if they are waiting for vaccine to be effective, god knows when that will happen. Vaccine is not a silver bullet and depending on effectiveness, it might not make that much of a difference in Australia.

Vaccine even at 50% efficacy will make a massive difference in Europe where there are thousands of cases a day but are unlikely to affect numbers here when it is like 2 cases a day.

That brings to my next point - Travel to low risk countries. Countries like Vietnam and Singapore are preparing to re open travel selectively irrespective of vaccine. So maybe the biggest effectiveness for vaccines on travel will be Europe/USA.

Scomo has to sell the vaccine as THE silver bullet. By taking this chemical concoction we will have unlimited access to leave and re-enter Australia, irrespective of other parts of the world and their COVID numbers. I do agree COVID rapid test at airport leaving Australia, arriving overseas, then departing overseas and arriving back in Australia as a second check (TBC what happens if you test positive on arrival back - that would suck).

If this is not offered I won't be taking the vaccine.

Remember when he stated you want open borders, download the COVIDSafe App. This did nothing, and contact and tracing probably don't even use it.

 

[Pom-DownUnder]

interesting

 

[MEL_Traveller]

Yeah... there's been some discussion in other threads about this.

While the legal grounds for state governments to close their borders - at least at the outbreak of the pandemic - are likely on sound footing, the same cannot be said for the international ban.

They claim the ban is to protect our health... but Aussies did plenty of stupid things overseas pre-covid and frequently ended up in hospital. But we weren't banned then.