Predictions of when international flights may resume/bans lifted

[MEL_Traveller]

If the ban leaving the country is for health grounds... how can they be letting in students?

How is it some citizens and PR holders - those that have been out of Australia for more than half of the previous 12 months - effectively have a revolving pass to leave and enter Australia? With no restrictions other than quarantine.

We need clear and transparent guidelines, and preferably, equality for everyone.

 

[oznflfan]

If the ban leaving the country is for health grounds... how can they be letting in students?

How is it some citizens and PR holders - those that have been out of Australia for more than half of the previous 12 months - effectively have a revolving pass to leave and enter Australia? With no restrictions other than quarantine.

We need clear and transparent guidelines, and preferably, equality for everyone.

MONEY TALKS

 

[Flashback]

There's a reason WA stands for Wait A-while ....

 

[Pushka]

There's a reason WA stands for Wait A-while ....

I heard an interview on the radio yesterday of an American actress currently in WA promoting a new movie with Liam Neilson. Maybe they are still filming it there. WA is only waiting a while for the plebs.

 

[jakeseven7]

Don’t know if anyone is watching Insiders, they interviewed the Minister for Science Tech and Industry talking about vaccine production timelines. Basically if it’s protein based - no issue, but anything else requires 9-12 month lead time to begin manufacturing.... this is the first time the government has disclosed this...

 

[antycbr]

Don’t know if anyone is watching Insiders, they interviewed the Minister for Science Tech and Industry talking about vaccine production timelines. Basically if it’s protein based - no issue, but anything else requires 9-12 month lead time to begin manufacturing.... this is the first time the government has disclosed this...

Assuming also that it is safe and effective. We really need to start planning for multiple vaccine scenarios and timelines soon.

 

[DC3]

.... We really need to start planning for multiple vaccine scenarios and timelines soon.

Paging the Prime Minister to AFF. Paging Prime Minister...

 

[MEL_Traveller]

Assuming also that it is safe and effective. We really need to start planning for multiple vaccine scenarios and timelines soon.

Other countries have started production - taking the risk that if a particular vaccine doesn't pass trials, the money is lost. To me a billion dollars to start advance production doesn't seem a high price given (a) the amount of money that's already been spent on covid, and (b) keeping the economy closed for another 9-12 months if they only start production once a vaccine has passed trials.

 

[ayushamity]

Other countries have started production

But Australia does not have any contracts in place for onshore production except the Oxford Vaccine.

I.e. if the Moderna vaccine is approved, they will initially get 3% for population under COVAX agreement and then have to buy the rest. The country manufacturing will prioritize its own population first so Australia will only get the vaccine later on and will be bottom of the list.

Same goes for the Pfizer vaccine which Australia hasn't even done any enquiries on.

I am sorry to say but if we are waiting around for a vaccine for international travel, that will be late 2021. The hope is that some travel bubbles form independent of a vaccine

 

[MEL_Traveller]

But Australia does not have any contracts in place for onshore production except the Oxford Vaccine.

And if that is the case... that's the problem! All this talk about opening up the economy, but we haven't spent the $1b on spreading the risk across multiple vaccines.

 

[oz_mark]

But Australia does not have any contracts in place for onshore production except the Oxford Vaccine.

I.e. if the Moderna vaccine is approved, they will initially get 3% for population under COVAX agreement and then have to buy the rest. The country manufacturing will prioritize its own population first so Australia will only get the vaccine later on and will be bottom of the list.

Same goes for the Pfizer vaccine which Australia hasn't even done any enquiries on.

The Pfizer vaccine has some not insignificant hurdles to overcome in distribution logistics. I am sure they will be solved if needs be, but probably has figured in people thinking.

 

[ayushamity]

And if that is the case...

That IS the case! Oxford vax likely approval Dec, and Australia has pre ordered about 3 m doses immediately to come in January. These 3 m doses have actually already been produced but just not flown in yet. Once approved, we will have access immediately to 3 m doses for frontline/vulnerable wokers and will start on shore production in January in Melbourne.

They reckon maybe 2 months to scale up to 20 m doses. We are a bit lucky that we dont have a large population.

 

[jakeseven7]

That IS the case! Oxford vax likely approval Dec, and Australia has pre ordered about 3 m doses immediately to come in January. These 3 m doses have actually already been produced but just not flown in yet. Once approved, we will have access immediately to 3 m doses for frontline/vulnerable wokers and will start on shore production in January in Melbourne.

They reckon maybe 2 months to scale up to 20 m doses. We are a bit lucky that we dont have a large population.

It feels like we have hedged our bets heavily let’s hope it pans out or international (save for safe bubbles) could well be pushed far into 2022....

 

[jb747]

.....could well be pushed far into 2022....

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[CityRail]

That IS the case! Oxford vax likely approval Dec, and Australia has pre ordered about 3 m doses immediately to come in January. These 3 m doses have actually already been produced but just not flown in yet. Once approved, we will have access immediately to 3 m doses for frontline/vulnerable wokers and will start on shore production in January in Melbourne.

They reckon maybe 2 months to scale up to 20 m doses. We are a bit lucky that we dont have a large population.

So that means we might be able to travel further abroad for Easter 2021 then, aren't we?
Assuming those who wish to be vaccinated will be vaccinated by then?

 

[dajop]

Back in the topic of international travel I notice another particular country, with about 1/5th the population of Australia, has been taking about 2500 arrivals in hotel quarantine a week (the same as Sydney was under their cap before it was recently lifted) through just one city which has a population smaller than both Brisbane and Perth.

How come they can manage it?

Passenger Statistics

www.customs.govt.nz

(although I couldn’t find their cap, which will be implemented in November - where pax have to have a hotel voucher to board a flight).

 

[ayushamity]

So that means we might be able to travel further abroad for Easter 2021 then, aren't we?

Only if the vaccine works. That is a big gamble

 

[jgreenspoon]

Only if the vaccine works. That is a big gamble

Correction. Only if we care if it works

The only efficacy I can recall being stipulated as a minimum is 70% and even that?.....

 

[trevella]

So that means we might be able to travel further abroad for Easter 2021 then, aren't we?
Assuming those who wish to be vaccinated will be vaccinated by then?

If you don’t want to get vaccinated, then while you might be allowed to leave, you won’t be permitted to travel in anything like normal fashion by Christmas 2021, let alone Easter.

 

[CityRail]

Only if the vaccine works. That is a big gamble

Not anymore. Pfizer, Moderna and Oxford vaccine are reportedly to commence vaccination before Christmas, as news leaked from the UK and US media. I think they should be relatively confidents that they works so that they will expect such vaccination programs will be in place.

Note the Oxford vaccine requires 2 jabs for those who wish to be vaccinated, with each 28 days apart. So to start the protective effect we might need to wait until Australia Day the latest for those at high risk.