Predictions of when international flights may resume/bans lifted

[MEL_Traveller]

Look how cautious government had been opening anything, and how compliant as a population we have been so far. I reckon we'll be lucky to be given the green light for 2022 oversea's travel by the end of 2021. To be honest I'd be happy with that.

TBH, I would challenge the law, legally, before that happened!

 

[dajop]

Sure, nice start. But the other point I made is a level of assurance of non-pourous borders into the community - Australia hasn't even got to the point of Pacific Islands yet, which arguably is a simpler case. Presumably Singapore's system is similar to NZ - but perhaps there is sort of an element of quarantine free arrivals in Singapore that Australia needs to get their head around. The thinking that Australia buys into Singapore (ie allows Singapore travellers quarantine free into Australia), Australia buys into Singapore's decision/system (ie whoever Singapore allowed into Singapore quarantine free).

Maybe for Pacific Islands, Singapore, Taiwan and perhaps even Vietnam (excluding China, as it is too politically charged), Australia could manage the risk differently to free up capacity in quarantine hotels. That does not necessarily mean quarantine free.

It could be allowing monitored self isolation at a pre-registered address (more tightly controlled than self-isolation 1.0) using similar procedures that Victoria did when hundreds were self isolating at home during the second wave, or NSW during their much smaller second wave. Worth noting that Singapore does allow quarantine arrivals from a select group of countries (Australia being one of these), but it is not exactly the same as Australian arrivals from NZ, as there is the extra risk management step of PCR testing after arrival (which AU doesn't require for arrivals from NZ).

 

[CityRail]

Australia is on track for the 4th day without local transmission.
I hope by the end of the month we can keep on track so that NZ can open borders to Australia by Christmas.
I predict by early December there will be no more domestic borders and NZ will open.
This could quickly followed by Singapore, so that Hong Kongers can go back to where we come from without quarantine through 2 travel bubbles.

 

[jakeseven7]

Australia is on track for the 4th day without local transmission.
I hope by the end of the month we can keep on track so that NZ can open borders to Australia by Christmas.
I predict by early December there will be no more domestic borders and NZ will open.

NZ already ruled that out though for 2020....

 

[dajop]

This could quickly followed by Singapore, so that Hong Kongers can go back to where we come from without quarantine through 2 travel bubbles.

Don't quite understand this comment.

 

[kamchatsky]

Don't quite understand this comment.

I think it is related to the following bubble between HKG and SIN:

Hong Kong, Singapore travel bubble to launch on November 22

Daily travel quota set at 200 people in each direction, with passengers required to shell out around HK$1,890 for up to three Covid-19 tests at different points in the journey.

www.scmp.com

But I don't think it would work for transit to Australia though.

 

[NM]

I think it is related to the following bubble between HKG and SIN:

Hong Kong, Singapore travel bubble to launch on November 22

Daily travel quota set at 200 people in each direction, with passengers required to shell out around HK$1,890 for up to three Covid-19 tests at different points in the journey.

www.scmp.com

But I don't think it would work for transit to Australia though.

would likely require a 2-week stopover in SIN in each direction.

 

[dajop]

would likely require a 2-week stopover in SIN in each direction.

Yes, the usual restrictions relate to where a traveller has been in the previous two weeks.

 

[Pom-DownUnder]

TBH, I would challenge the law, legally, before that happened!

100% Agree, Once that vaccine is flowing hopefully Feb/Mar/Apr you open the borders, end of.

 

[dajop]

100% Agree, Once that vaccine is flowing hopefully Feb/Mar/Apr you open the borders, end of.

Maybe the vaccine will provide the political innoculation, and practically eliminate the political risk. Which will help borders to open more than anything.

Because for infection risk ... even with a vaccine with 90% effectiveness, 99% of travellers and 66% of the population immunized, it's still probably poses a higher risk of infections entering the country from places with elevated levels of covid infection, than allowing people to enter Australia from Taiwan, Singapore or Vietnam with a negative test right now. Yet the latter is unacceptable, but the former might be acceptable. ( Or for that matter a higher risk to WA than they face now letting anyone else in Australia enter without isolation ...)

 

[Pom-DownUnder]

Maybe the vaccine will provide the political innoculation, and practically eliminate the political risk. Which will help borders to open more than anything.

Because for infection risk ... even with a vaccine with 90% effectiveness, 99% of travellers and 66% of the population immunized, it's still probably poses a higher risk of infections entering the country from places with elevated levels of covid infection, than allowing people to enter Australia from Taiwan, Singapore or Vietnam with a negative test right now. Yet the latter is unacceptable, but the former might be acceptable. ( Or for that matter a higher risk to WA than they face now letting anyone else in Australia enter without isolation ...)

Perfect is the enemy of good.

To stop peoples free movement, in a first world country, which is capitalist and democratic. The bar I have for that to be acceptable is very very high. Otherwise entire countries would be shut down every flu season.

 

[Tiki]

Look how cautious government had been opening anything, and how compliant as a population we have been so far. I reckon we'll be lucky to be given the green light for 2022 oversea's travel by the end of 2021. To be honest I'd be happy with that.

Compliant because we don't have a choice! It's not as if we can sneak across the border to another country or sneak on a plane or anything.

I can only speak for myself. I don't meet the criteria for an "exit pass or whatever" and I can't afford to pay cash for hotel quarantine. I use miles and points, not cash to travel and the countries I visit tend to be very cheap. I would travel in a heartbeat if I could freely get on a plane and not be restricted in the destination country.

 

[JohnM]

They will do it. But they won’t (and nor should they) for the slave wages being paid to these fly in staff.

Evidence of 'slave wages', please.

There are labour laws in this country - irrespective of where the worker is from.

I think that you will find that such work is almost always paid by production, not by time. It is not a wages job. It can be very lucrative for the energetic.

But it can also be hard work under onerous climatic conditions. The soft need not apply...

 

[dajop]

Evidence of 'slave wages', please.

There are labour laws in this country - irrespective of where the worker is from.

I think that you will find that such work is almost always paid by production, not by time. It is not a wages job. It can be very lucrative for the energetic.

But it can also be hard work under onerous climatic conditions. The soft need not apply...

There's a discussion in the Guardian (link below) that paints a rosy picture, but does not shy away from mentioning some of the issues and that there are many rogue operators. It seems the problem may not be the wages per se, but excessive accommodation charges and debt bondage (associated with agents, transport etc)

The fruit pickers: inside Australia's seasonal worker program – a photo essay

The men and women who come from the Pacific to pick fruit and vegetables often do so at a high personal cost. These are some of their stories

www.theguardian.com

 

[CityRail]

Good news for Hong Kongers, as from 22/11, as long as you get travel exemption from Home Affairs, you can first apply for ATP to enter Singapore, stay for 14 days, and them use Air Travel Bubble to go to Hong Kong and avoid quarantine at both locations!
It only works one way, hopefully when Australia opens to Singapore, it will de facto open to Mainland China and Hong Kong as well.

 

[RAM]

Evidence of 'slave wages', please.

There are labour laws in this country - irrespective of where the worker is from.

I think that you will find that such work is almost always paid by production, not by time. It is not a wages job. It can be very lucrative for the energetic.

But it can also be hard work under onerous climatic conditions. The soft need not apply...

Four Corners (I think it was) did an expose in 2018 or 2019. One example was a farm over 100km from the nearest service center/town in FNQ (7 shops with one offering money transfers limited in value ($50 I think it was per transaction with a high per transaction fee $12 (rings a bell). Only available accomodation was in a corrugated iron shack with 4 per room, no ac, 1 toilet (outside) & they were charged around 60% of their wages for food & board. ABC reporter pointed out if two of them pooled the cost they could rent a 4 star unit on the Gold Coast for less & have $200/wk left over for food.

For those luckier enough to be 'close' to a town:

"Straight-out underpayment is also rife. An online survey of 4,322 temporary migrants - which included backpackers, students and people on temporary work visas - found that almost half the participants reported being paid $15 an hour or less when the minimum wage at the time was $21.15.

Perhaps the most disturbing finding was that backpackers and students were aware they were being exploited and were underpaid. But they believed that it was part and parcel of being on that class of visa.

Backpackers often find themselves stuck.

Hostel owners have been known to clip the ticket in numerous ways: $170 a week for a bed in a room with six others, payable in advance, $5 to $10 a day to drive the backpackers to the farm and, sometimes, job-finding fees."

Then there are the rapes, murders & deaths.

Death in the sun: Australia's 88-day law leaves backpackers exploited and exposed

The 2017 death of Olivier Caramin joins a growing list of problems backpackers can face in rural jobs, including rape, harassment and underpayment

www.theguardian.com

Not every farmer does this, far from it, just far too many. But they are not alone - in the last three years over 300,000 workers in the major cities have been found to have been underpaid - the largest amount for one worker - $73,000 over 18 months. Just search 711 underpayment. Several high profile restaurant groups for example.

Australian employers ripping off backpackers and foreign students: study

Survey reveals systemic exploitation of visitors to Australia, including criminal behaviour by employers

www.theguardian.com

Remember it was within the last 20 years that teenage backpackers were left on their own in outback stations & died.

What's Worse?

If a backpacker reports that they were underpaid then all the time they spent working for that 'employer' cannot be counted towards meeting the 88 days required. In the case of isolated stations/farms - the backpacker cannot simply walk off.

When this was pointed out to Michaela Cash she said, "We need to have rules." When asked to clarify what that meant she left the media conference.

 

[jakeseven7]

NZ foreign minister on Radio National this morning - no immediate plans to open AU two way bubble. So kiss that goodbye for another few months!

 

[ayushamity]

100% Agree, Once that vaccine is flowing hopefully Feb/Mar/Apr you open the borders, end of.

With regards to the 90% efficacy announced, that would still leave say about 10% who will fall through the cracks.

So, with regards to quarantine free international travel, if 10% fall through the cracks and start an outbreak in Australia, wouldn't all states just freak out and close their borders again ? (except maybe NSW).

Am I inferring that we need a vaccine at about 100% efficacy to restart international travel ?? Because one case and most states freak out and close borders

 

[jgreenspoon]

With regards to the 90% efficacy announced, that would still leave say about 10% who will fall through the cracks.

So, with regards to quarantine free international travel, if 10% fall through the cracks and start an outbreak in Australia, wouldn't all states just freak out and close their borders again ? (except maybe NSW).

Am I inferring that we need a vaccine at about 100% efficacy to restart international travel ?? Because one case and most states freak out and close borders

that’s not really how we expect vaccines And immunity to work. The idea is that if a significant number are immune to the virus then it stops the spread as it is unlikely you’ll have repeated interactions between the proportion of people that are not immune

That is to say, you’re one positive case comes in but can’t spread it because everyone around them is immune, or at least a good proportion of them are and you have a significantly lower risk of transmission.

That is why even our national immunisation program doesn’t aim for 100% vaccination rates and exemptions are allowed (whether or not you agree with that)

I read an article that based on the transmission or reproduction rates of the virus, and a 90% efficacy, you would want about 65% of the population vaccinated before opening up… Would be good if I can find it but it was at the tail end of a guardian report or something

 

[jb747]

If the effect on the reproduction rate is to reduce it by the percentage quoted, the I'd assume that has the effect of pulling it below 1, and so any outbreak would die out.