Predictions of when international flights may resume/bans lifted

[drron]

The Repatriation flights though are not using hotel quarantine but again using the Howard Springs camp.Surely others could be opened in other states.

 

[dajop]

The Repatriation flights though are not using hotel quarantine but again using the Howard Springs camp.Surely others could be opened in other states.

Yes you would think so.

Upon reflection it's probably India that's the main problem as flights are limited, and some airlines aren't allowed to carry transit pax from India. And I guess the Howard Springs geographic location would make it difficult to consolidate people domestically to transport them there (compared to say SYD-HBA).

 

[trevella]

Japan bubble watch: 782 new cases across 37 of Japan's 47 prefectures yesterday (generally the slowest day of the week) including 200 in Hokkaido, 157 in Tokyo, and 78 in Osaka. We won't be in any sort of bubble with them any time soon.

Record high for Japan today as of 18:30. 1,635 new cases, including 393 in Tokyo, 231 in Osaka, 147 in Kanagawa, 143 in Aichi, and 236 in Hokkaido.

 

[mrfreeze]

Record high for Japan today as of 18:30. 1,635 new cases, including 393 in Tokyo, 231 in Osaka, 147 in Kanagawa, 143 in Aichi, and 236 in Hokkaido.

But as a percentage of population it is approximately 0.0013% which does not sound that much at all.
Reporting the numbers sound more impressive than reporting it as percentage of population, it's like Scotty from marketing has had a hand in what's reported

 

[Princess Fiona]

But as a percentage of population it is approximately 0.0013% which does not sound that much at all.
Reporting the numbers sound more impressive than reporting it as percentage of population, it's like Scotty from marketing has had a hand in what's reported

But the cases grow exponentially unlike the population.

 

[dajop]

But as a percentage of population it is approximately 0.0013% which does not sound that much at all.
Reporting the numbers sound more impressive than reporting it as percentage of population, it's like Scotty from marketing has had a hand in what's reported

So that’s equivalent to about 83 new cases a day in Victoria or 97 in NSW. I think we all know what that would mean .....

 

[jakeseven7]

So that’s equivalent to about 83 new cases a day in Victoria or 97 in NSW. I think we all know what that would mean .....

Locked down so fast you wouldn’t know what hit you.

And with that Japan exits stage right of any chance of a bubble with Australia.... Sayonara....

 

[james4321]

Locked down so fast you wouldn’t know what hit you.

And with that Japan exits stage right of any chance of a bubble with Australia.... Sayonara....

And rightly so

 

[RAM]

Upon reflection it's probably India that's the main problem as flights are limited, and some airlines aren't allowed to carry transit pax from India. And I guess the Howard Springs geographic location would make it difficult to consolidate people domestically to transport them there (compared to say SYD-HBA).

Looking at the flight statistics for Air India's planes that have been flying into Australia - no shortage of empty seats per month - numbers in the low thousands per month. In August they flew 198 passengers into Australia on 6 flights so just 33 passengers per plane and took 1,313 out. Total seats available across those 6 flights were 1,536, down from 8 flights in July with 2,048 seats.

The per flight restrictions saw them limited to 33 passengers out of 256 per flight capacity. If they'd been Q - they would have stopped flying completely.

Yet the Fed Govt rewards Q by fully paying all operating costs for the Q flights & allowing Q to charge passengers fares on top - nice largesse from Scomo. I'm sure Air India would have been willing to fly into Darwin with 175 passengers per plane with no Govt largesse.

 

[Flashback]

Qatar has been added to the UK's travel corridor list, so at least if you do head here from Australia now, you don't need to self isolate for 14 days on arrival as it currently stands.

 

[Flashback]

South Africa reopening, requires negative PCR test for entry.

Chile reopening, requires negative PCR test for entry.

Spain implementing a negative PCR test for entry requirement, if coming from a high risk country.

As I suspected months ago, the gold standard was going to be a negative test prior to entry (and for some places, on arrival / after a period of days also). Travel is going to get costly...... any savings in airfares/hotels at the moment is eroded by test requirements. If/when rapid tests are accepted, the value proposition changes.

 

[justinbrett]

The trouble for the government is, as soon as they open up to one country (eg NZ), the entire travel ban has to go. Sure, it will be mandatory quarantine on return, but they can no longer keep those in who are prepared to pay.

This is because once you are outside of Australia, foreign countries like NZ have no power to stop you departing for a third country.

I don’t know how they are going to solve this one.

 

[drron]

Looking at the flight statistics for Air India's planes that have been flying into Australia - no shortage of empty seats per month - numbers in the low thousands per month. In August they flew 198 passengers into Australia on 6 flights so just 33 passengers per plane and took 1,313 out. Total seats available across those 6 flights were 1,536, down from 8 flights in July with 2,048 seats.

The per flight restrictions saw them limited to 33 passengers out of 256 per flight capacity. If they'd been Q - they would have stopped flying completely.

Yet the Fed Govt rewards Q by fully paying all operating costs for the Q flights & allowing Q to charge passengers fares on top - nice largesse from Scomo. I'm sure Air India would have been willing to fly into Darwin with 175 passengers per plane with no Govt largesse.

You do like being negative about Australia don't you RAM.
As I said before the QF repatriation flights are able to be done because they are basically bypassing the quarantine hotel bottle neck

And from the figures you supply Air India's flights out are pretty full with roughly 214 per flight.I do wonder who it is flying out.

 

[Yak11]

I have noticed that Qatar and Singapore are selling tickets to Melbourne airport in December. Do they know something that we don't? Or have I missed the news about Melbourne airport?

Or are they selling tickets with the hope that Melbourne accepts them?

Surely they don't know what sort of numbers Melbourne will accept? So people are going to get bumped

 

[Seat0B]

I have noticed that Qatar and Singapore are selling tickets to Melbourne airport in December. Do they know something that we don't? Or have I missed the news about Melbourne airport?

Or are they selling tickets with the hope that Melbourne accepts them?

Surely they don't know what sort of numbers Melbourne will accept? So people are going to get bumped

And the cynic in me says that the airlines don't really care about any of that, because they get to keep your payment (interest free loan) until they get around to refunding you weeks or more likely months later.

 

[dajop]

I have noticed that Qatar and Singapore are selling tickets to Melbourne airport in December. Do they know something that we don't? Or have I missed the news about Melbourne airport?

Dan mentioned that they were intending to restart accepting passengers in time for Christmas, recognising also that do so would mean it needs to start later this month, because of the hotel quarantine period. So it's probably a reasonable bet to sell seats in December (I know SQ have been selling seats into Mel for December for some time, well before Dan mentioned that - but only in the highest economy and highest business fare class).

 

[ayushamity]

Seems we have taken a backward step from the talks on home quarantine. Why am I not surprised....

From the presser just now,


Australia will maintain its quarantine arrangements for people coming on overseas.

National Cabinet is very committed. This has been one of Australia’s great successes.


Of course, we would like to see so many parts of our economy return to normal. But we must ensure that we put Australians first in that task.

It is constrained by the amount of quarantine that exists at a state and territory level. And that’s a fact that we have to contend with. And where we can expand that, we are.

But the suggestion - if there’s a suggestion - I’m not saying you are making that suggestion - that somehow the quarantine can be waived in order to get through this, well, that is not an option that either the commonwealth or, indeed, the premiers and chief ministers are prepared to contemplate, because the inherent risks were there.



Push home quarantine from low risk countries back to March 2021 and low risk country travel to middle of next year.

 

[dajop]

Time to celebrate today, another 150 weekly quarantine positions in Qld announced. Whoo hoo! That's huge.

 

[jakeseven7]

Yup no news whatsoever for international travel, quarantine, international students. Nothing.

They ruled out home quarantine categorically as it is too dangerous.

Only some small increases in return quarantine and Scomo flying to Melbourne tomorrow to discuss MEL international reopening to returning Australians probably now early 2021.

 

[ayushamity]

Yeh. No home quarantine anymore.

Not that this necessarily means bad news for international travel. It just means that only open to countries which are absolutely safe (whenever that may be). So no middle ground. Either only open to countries which are safe or not open at all.

No traffic light system as was discussed earlier.