Predictions of when international flights may resume/bans lifted

[dajop]

No traffic light system as was discussed earlier.

Yes, it's seems risk is the same whether you are coming from a country which, over the last 14 days is experiencing 0.12 new cases per day per million population and those who are experiencing 350 new cases per day per million population.

 

[jakeseven7]

Yeh. No home quarantine anymore.

Not that this necessarily means bad news for international travel. It just means that only open to countries which are absolutely safe (whenever that may be). So no middle ground. Either only open to countries which are safe or not open at all.

No traffic light system as was discussed earlier.

That list of safe potential countries is small and getting smaller though is the bummer. For everyone.

 

[RAM]

You do like being negative about Australia don't you RAM.
As I said before the QF repatriation flights are able to be done because they are basically bypassing the quarantine hotel bottle neck

And from the figures you supply Air India's flights out are pretty full with roughly 214 per flight.I do wonder who it is flying out.

No, I beg to differ.

I am not being negative merely presenting the facts. If something does not pass the 'pub test' it is not the pub's fault.

The quarantine bottleneck could be cleared using any airline, it did not have to use Q - perhaps rewarding those airlines that have been serving Australians despite not being our 'National Carrier'.

By rewarding I do not mean providing super-profits as Q is receiving according to the available information - but merely allowing some of these foreign airlines (already flying from the Q reward flight locations) to increase their avg passengers per flight by getting them to operate 'full' flights to Darwin 2 or 3 times in place of 2 or 3 of their currently 85+% empty flights at zero cost to the tax payer.

The latest thrilling instalment has come through - the internationat statistics for September.

When you match them to the DFAT changes (Australians stranded overseas) - it suggests that of the 15,413 arrivals in September - just less than 700 were 'stranded Australians' as at 31 August.

Again the question is why? Having sent numerous emails to both sides of politics pointing these numbers out for some time - all that comes is either - 'We are following this up with the Govt' or 'Thank you for contacting the Minister...'.

Never actually any explanation nor follow-up. Journalists are not interested either (so far).

September revealed....

Across the 30 days there were 15,413 arrivals (514/day) again a large number below the 'allowed' figures - due to late notifications of passengers/flight info seeing airlines only book (rather than face negative publicity) min number they've faced eg: Air India 33/flight. Some airlines may have decided not to risk the bad publicity & have operated zero passengers in but carrying outbound

Meanwhile 46,707 people flew out. With 12,320 flying out of Melbourne!

Of the arrivals, into:

Sydney = 10,035 65%
Brisbane = 2,123 14%
Cairns = 94 1%
Perth = 2,038 13%
Adelaide = 1,123 7% (just for Pushka - in 9/2019 was 3% - SA leads the way!)

Departures:

Sydney = 24,897 53%
Melbourne = 12,320 26%
Brisbane = 5,762 12%
Cairns = 68 0%
Perth = 2,786 6%
Adelaide = 590 1%

So Sydney (NSW) as a whole is also benefitting from the greater share of departures as well as arrivals. Airport charges, airport employees, catering, cleaning, etc.

So where/how are people coming/going?

Passenger Arrivals/Departures/seats available inbound

Air India 518/1,624/3072

Air NZ 1,844/5,389/14,573

Air NewG 569/550/5,013
Air Vanuatu 21/302/528

ANA 377/562/3,120
JAL 243/ 0/1,541 - only airline to operate inbound only

Cathay 784/2,419/12,692

China Airlines 142/783/1,530
Eva Air 0/128/628

China E 200/1,943/2,714
China S 300/3,981/4,536
Xiamen Air 250/1,745/2,124

Emirates 1,092/5,767/11,580
Etihad 961/1,492/ 7,658
Qatar Air 2,751/7,973/21,946

Garuda 247/703/1,579

Asiana 119/650/1,224
Korean Air 0/111/ 557

Malaysian Air 370/1,361/2,860

Philippines Air 74/292/734

Scoot 337/1,449/ 4,875
SIA 1,996/2,160/16,383

Sri Lanka 103/1,939/2,960 operated 6 flights inbound zero passengers

Thai Air 141/695/1,284

Vietnam Air 129/694/ 822

Delta 438/ 441/ 3,744
United 1,289/1,304/10,145

 

[jakeseven7]

The quarantine bottleneck could be cleared using any airline,

The quarantine bottleneck is about hotel quarantine capacity doesn't matter what airline or boat or camel the government uses to get people here.... for the hundredth time..... sigh.

 

[RAM]

The quarantine bottleneck is about hotel quarantine capacity doesn't matter what airline or boat or camel the government uses to get people here.... for the hundredth time..... sigh.

..and for the 101st time - any airline can fly them to Darwin - not just Q.... deep sigh.

That way Q would not be getting all its costs paid for by the tax payer AND then charging passengers fares on top of the Govt covering all operating cost.

Also, Scomo can announce that only people registered with DFAT will be allowed to arrive. Backlog cleared.

 

[dajop]

The quarantine bottleneck is about hotel quarantine capacity doesn't matter what airline or boat or camel the government uses to get people here.... for the hundredth time..... sigh.

The point is that there is thousands of empty seats coming into the country, the government doesn't need to underwrite QF planes to travel empty to the other sides of the world to bring back passengers to DRW, they could organise with a carrier who is already flying into Australia - empty - to carry those passengers. But that doesn't quite create the compelling story ....

 

[jakeseven7]

The point is that there is thousands of empty seats coming into the country, the government doesn't need to underwrite QF planes to travel empty to the other sides of the world to bring back passengers to DRW, they could organise with a carrier who is already flying into Australia - empty - to carry those passengers. But that doesn't quite create the compelling story ....

They aren't flying empty out....

I get that the Australian government wants to use an Australian company to do this work for many reasons, supporting a local company, PR value of the flying kangaroom on TV etc, supporting local jobs and a morale boost for an industry that has been pretty much destroyed by the pandedmic. If VA still had planes that could go further, they would also be used - just like they were in other natural disasters.

 

[mrfreeze]

The quarantine bottleneck is about hotel quarantine capacity doesn't matter what airline or boat or camel the government uses to get people here.... for the hundredth time..... sigh.

But what was / is Hotel capacity running at around the country?
I now one of our local Hobart Hotels was running at 3% (Weekday) to maximum 5% (Weekend) occupancy so plenty of rooms available down here.

 

[jakeseven7]

But what was / is Hotel capacity running at around the country?
I now one of our local Hobart Hotels was running at 3% (Weekday) to maximum 5% (Weekend) occupancy so plenty of rooms available down here.

Ummmmm I don't know, they announced it today after National Cabinet though, with QLD taking more and TAS as well.... MEL probably won't until 2021 now because they are awaiting their final hotel quarantine inquiry debrief due 18 Dec I think.

Google the NC meeting and might find all the totals!

 

[dajop]

.. MEL probably won't until 2021 now because they are awaiting their final hotel quarantine inquiry debrief due 18 Dec I think.

The interim report has the recommendations. The final report will outline who to blame for the root causes of the problems.

In a presser a few days ago, the Premier indicated that whilst MEL won't reopen to traffic in the next few weeks, they are aiming to open to get some people home in time for Xmas, recognising the need for people to quarantine for 2 weeks first. Gut feel maybe around the end of the month?

 

[jakeseven7]

The interim report has the recommendations. The final report will outline who to blame for the root causes of the problems.

In a presser a few days ago, the Premier indicated that whilst MEL won't reopen to traffic in the next few weeks, they are aiming to open to get some people home in time for Xmas, recognising the need for people to quarantine for 2 weeks first. Gut feel maybe around the end of the month?

Xmas eve repatriation flight? Made for PR

Who knows.... VIC certainly doesn’t appear to be in a hurry to open MEL up and Scomo is flying down there to get on the beers with his mate Dan (no joke they are apparently quite good friends!) so will see what happens after next week...

 

[dajop]

Xmas eve repatriation flight? Made for PR

Just remembering that Christmas Eve is December 10 this year (in terms of arriving from O/S)

 

[MEL_Traveller]

But what was / is Hotel capacity running at around the country?
I now one of our local Hobart Hotels was running at 3% (Weekday) to maximum 5% (Weekend) occupancy so plenty of rooms available down here.

Piecing together what I can find on the internet, there are about 300,000 hotel rooms across Australia. Figures from 2018 show about 35,000 rooms in Melbourne. I'd suspect the same, maybe a few thousand more in Sydney. Out of all those you need to find hotels willing to participate, and have the resources to police the quarantine. 'Free and unrestricted' numbers of arrivals may not be possible.

 

[drron]

..and for the 101st time - any airline can fly them to Darwin - not just Q.... deep sigh.

That way Q would not be getting all its costs paid for by the tax payer AND then charging passengers fares on top of the Govt covering all operating cost.

Also, Scomo can announce that only people registered with DFAT will be allowed to arrive. Backlog cleared.

Sigh.I would rather prefer Aussie jobs be saved if the Government is chipping in rather than Air Indian,QR or any other airline jobs.Sorry.

 

[MEL_Traveller]

Sigh.I would rather prefer Aussie jobs be saved if the Government is chipping in rather than Air Indian,QR or any other airline jobs.Sorry.

That's the thing... they wouldn't need to chip in for the international portions... the flights are already there.

If using remote quarantine, for example Darwin, all we'd really need is a domestic carrier from SYD/BNE/MEL to Darwin to ferry those that need to go. Those services could be let under a competitive tender, or shared between VA and Qantas Group, keeping Aussie jobs.

 

[drron]

However if you leave it up to the foreign airlines they have shown already not to be interested in giving preference to people on the DFAT lists.
As well I am happier for the Government to be arranging passenger lists as a bit more likely to vet the passengers for Covid.

 

[MEL_Traveller]

However if you leave it up to the foreign airlines they have shown already not to be interested in giving preference to people on the DFAT lists.
As well I am happier for the Government to be arranging passenger lists as a bit more likely to vet the passengers for Covid.

I agree at the moment the airlines flying are probably going to base their passenger lists on commercial drivers. But DFAT could easily increase the cap from 30 to 150 per flight (or whatever), with the proviso that the additional 120 seats can only be sold to pre-approved passengers. The Thai government seems to be doing something similar where citizens planning to return home need permission to fly.

Lots of ways to skin the cat without sending an empty plane one way (what would Greta say?!), and only bringing back a handful of pax each time, at great expense to the taxpayer.

 

[N860CR]

Realistically, there will never be any “travel bubbles”. We’ve now been told there’s a “vaccine coming” and they’ll drag it out until that is “approved”.

Practically, the vaccine will “work”. We’ve never had a real impact (medically) from the virus in this country. All this childish, marketing talk of “double doughnuts” in Victoria is a joke. The vast majority of people recover from this virus by having a bit of a lie down at home. Vaccinate with a decent success rate, protect the nursing homes (Australians clearly have no understand of death rates in nursing homes) and the virus will become a non-event (like the flu, which we deal with ever year with a fairly poorly performing vaccine).

I suspect we’ll have a working vaccine soon enough and any “bubble” will be irrelevant.

 

[ayushamity]

Realistically, there will never be any “travel bubbles”. We’ve now been told there’s a “vaccine coming” and they’ll drag it out until that is “approved”.

Is the implication then that when the elderly and high risk get the vaccine in March (hopefully 5 mill doses covers it) ,the borders will be flung open ?

The Feds keep on implying that borders will only open when the mast majority will get vaccinated (mass deployment of the vaccine will probably take 6 months) which takes it to end of 2021 for borders re opening.

I.E. we are at the mercy of other Aussies helping us out to get vaccinated so that enough Aussies can be vaccinated for borders to open

 

[ayushamity]

Covid-19 vaccination may be mandatory for all visitors to Australia

From 2021, overseas travellers might have to produce a vaccination certificate before boarding their flight to Australia.

www.executivetraveller.com

I don't know where they got this info from but its probably about right