Predictions of when international flights may resume/bans lifted

[drron]

I agree at the moment the airlines flying are probably going to base their passenger lists on commercial drivers. But DFAT could easily increase the cap from 30 to 150 per flight (or whatever), with the proviso that the additional 120 seats can only be sold to pre-approved passengers. The Thai government seems to be doing something similar where citizens planning to return home need permission to fly.

Lots of ways to skin the cat without sending an empty plane one way (what would Greta say?!), and only bringing back a handful of pax each time, at great expense to the taxpayer.

Though the Thai Government is using TG now.

Thai Airways Will Operate More “Special Flights” TO Europe & Within Asia Until December 30, 2020

More "Special Flights" from Thai Airways until years end.

loyaltylobby.com

And Germany uses Lufthansa,Netherlands uses KLM,India uses Air India for repatriation flights along with many other countries using their own airlines for repatriation flighs.

 

[MEL_Traveller]

Is the implication then that when the elderly and high risk get the vaccine in March (hopefully 5 mill doses covers it) ,the borders will be flung open ?

The Feds keep on implying that borders will only open when the mast majority will get vaccinated (mass deployment of the vaccine will probably take 6 months) which takes it to end of 2021 for borders re opening.

I.E. we are at the mercy of other Aussies helping us out to get vaccinated so that enough Aussies can be vaccinated for borders to open

I think the implication is as you suggest.

But I think I read even worse... that the health minister was saying not only Aussies need to be vaccinated, but also people in the countries we want to visit. No idea why he's casting the net so wide. We don't have the same policy in place for the flu vaccine.

Allowing students in but denying frontline health care workers the choice if they want to go to Fiji or Bali? VERY BAD! (Is that trademarked to Trump??)

 

[MEL_Traveller]

Though the Thai Government is using TG now.

Thai Airways Will Operate More “Special Flights” TO Europe & Within Asia Until December 30, 2020

More "Special Flights" from Thai Airways until years end.

loyaltylobby.com

And Germany uses Lufthansa,Netherlands uses KLM,India uses Air India for repatriation flights along with many other countries using their own airlines for repatriation flighs.

For sure... and there may be reasons such as avoiding connections or transits where a non-stop is the practical choice. But that's not the case for Australia. We know transit via SIN or DOH is permitted, for example. Thailand allows entry, at least for tourists, on either semi-commercial flights or Thai repatriation flights*.

Flights are operating. They are empty. We could receive huge numbers of pax on those flights and use domestic charters to get them to quarantine centres.


*source: Royal Thai Embassy: Special Tourist Visa (STV) - Royal Thai Embassy Canberra

4. Flights to Thailand​

​

Option 1 Semi-commercial flights to Thailand​

​

Certain airlines are now permitted to operate semi-commercial flights to Thailand, such as, Emirates (EK384), Etihad (EY406), EVA (BR211), Qatar Airways (QR 826, QR830, QR832, QR834, QR836, QR980), Singapore Airline (SQ976), Cathay Pacific (CX653), Lufthansa (LH772), Austrian Airlines (OS25), Swiss Air (LX180), KLM (KL873, KL875, KL887, KL847, KL811, KL843, KL815, KL803) and Air France (AF253, AF168).​

​

Option 2 Special chartered flights organised by the Royal Thai Embassy in Canberra and the Royal Thai Consulate-General in Sydney​

​

Due to the limit of quota of allowable passengers to enter Thailand by special chartered flights, please contact the Royal Thai Embassy in Canberra or the Royal Thai Consulate-General in Sydney for information on the availability of seats.​

 

[drron]

Though if you read JohnK's attempts to get a permit for his wife to go back to Thailand-she is a Thai citizen - the commercial flights were not able to be selected.

 

[MEL_Traveller]

Though if you read JohnK's attempts to get a permit for his wife to go back to Thailand-she is a Thai citizen - the commercial flights were not able to be selected.

There have been updates since then i think (the restriction on TG charters seems to have gone from the page i originally linked in the other thread).

The bottom line however is that Australia makes its own decisions, there is no international law requiring citizens to fly only airlines from their own country.

Sending a 787 jetliner around the world to pick up 187 passengers seems like people haven’t thought outside the box.

 

[oznflfan]

I think the implication is as you suggest.

But I think I read even worse... that the health minister was saying not only Aussies need to be vaccinated, but also people in the countries we want to visit. No idea why he's casting the net so wide. We don't have the same policy in place for the flu vaccine.

Allowing students in but denying frontline health care workers the choice if they want to go to Fiji or Bali? VERY BAD! (Is that trademarked to Trump??)

Me vaccinated to leave Australia - AGREE
Visitors vaccinated to visit Australia - AGREE
Citizens in the country I want to visit being vaccinated - DON'T AGREE in principle, however if COVID infections high like USA/France/etc now I somewhat agree. Trick here is for infection rates for 'banned' countries to be really on the high side, none of this 3 cases per day over 3 days garbage.

 

[MEL_Traveller]

I agree in principle that people wanting to leave Australia should be vaccinated... but I think in reality it is against our rights to freedom to leave.

 

[dajop]

Sending a 787 jetliner around the world to pick up 187 passengers seems like people haven’t thought outside the box.

The JNB flight repatriation flights seems to make the most sense as options from there are more limited and/or less direct. India may as well (are the AI flights still operating?). But the Europe flights could have been managed differently.

Anyway c’est la vie.

 

[MEL_Traveller]

The JNB flight repatriation flights seems to make the most sense as options from there are more limited and/or less direct. India may as well (are the AI flights still operating?). But the Europe flights could have been managed differently.

Anyway c’est la vie.

Good point with Air India - I thought they were flying semi-regular, but it might have been special flights?

JNB could have been handled by SQ... for example going by their current covid schedule released on 10 november:

19 Nov JNB-SIN 1345-0610+1​

20 Nov SIN-SYD 0935-2205​

The above connections are repeated on multiple other dates through November and December.

 

[moa999]

My go to chart for global infections (edited to reflect countries more common for Aussie travellers).
It's a log scale and only focuses on infections (including returned travellers) for the past week.

It certainly suggests that any bubble we might conceive is looking pretty small.

Covid Trends

Visualizing the exponential growth of COVID-19 across the world.

aatishb.com

 

[RAM]

Though the Thai Government is using TG now.

Thai Airways Will Operate More “Special Flights” TO Europe & Within Asia Until December 30, 2020

More "Special Flights" from Thai Airways until years end.

loyaltylobby.com

And Germany uses Lufthansa,Netherlands uses KLM,India uses Air India for repatriation flights along with many other countries using their own airlines for repatriation flighs.

The crucial difference though - all those airlines are continuing to operate scheduled international flights.

Compare with Q cancelling its flights on 24 hours notice & leaving 240,000 booked passengers stranded overseas after June 8th when the deal with the Fed Govt covering all their costs (including corporate overheads believe it or not!) to make a reasonable return - finished.

So the only choice for a direct flight from India has been provided by Air India for the past 5 months.

 

[HappyFlyerFamily]

Interesting post (post 7) on another AFF thread where pre-test and embarkation test still did not happen to stop a positive case emerging

Sewage testing detects COVID-19 on Qantas DEL-DRW repatriation flight

I've been listening to the ABC's coronacast podcast almost every day since it started, and have found it to be an interesting and reliable source of COVID-19 information and advice. On today's episode they had a guest, Paul Birch from the CSIRO, talking about sewerage testing as a way to detect...

www.australianfrequentflyer.com.au

 

[drron]

The crucial difference though - all those airlines are continuing to operate scheduled international flights.

Compare with Q cancelling its flights on 24 hours notice & leaving 240,000 booked passengers stranded overseas after June 8th when the deal with the Fed Govt covering all their costs (including corporate overheads believe it or not!) to make a reasonable return - finished.

So the only choice for a direct flight from India has been provided by Air India for the past 5 months.

But from the figures you provided before those Air India flights return almost full.Suggests they are repatriation flights rather than scheduled services.

 

[ayushamity]

I agree in principle that people wanting to leave Australia should be vaccinated... but I think in reality it is against our rights to freedom to leave.

I think the Government has already eroded those rights by putting a travel ban. So there is nothing stopping them for making vaccines mandatory

We live in North Korea now

 

[DC3]

I think the Government has already eroded those rights by putting a travel ban. So there is nothing stopping them for making vaccines mandatory

We live in North Korea now

We, the People of Oz, voted them into Government to make all sorts of decisions on our behalf?

Democracy at work.

 

[ayushamity]

Melbourne lab to start producing 30 million doses of promising coronavirus vaccine today

www.9news.com.au

The article states '

From today, the vaccine will begin processing which will take 50 days, reports the Sydney Morning Herald.
"We're making it ahead of time so that should the clinical trial be positive, with the outcomes that we're looking for, the vaccine will be available ... to distribute to the population," CSL chief scientific officer Andrew Nash told the publication.
'

50 days takes it till middle to end of January with doses for 15 mill people ready (2 doses per person).

Does this imply that if Oxford is ready, we could start having vaccinations as early as Feb ? (The March timeline is for Pfizer which is imported, not manufactured here)

 

[jgreenspoon]

Melbourne lab to start producing 30 million doses of promising coronavirus vaccine today

www.9news.com.au

The article states '

From today, the vaccine will begin processing which will take 50 days, reports the Sydney Morning Herald.
"We're making it ahead of time so that should the clinical trial be positive, with the outcomes that we're looking for, the vaccine will be available ... to distribute to the population," CSL chief scientific officer Andrew Nash told the publication.
'

50 days takes it till middle to end of January with doses for 15 mill people ready (2 doses per person).

Does this imply that if Oxford is ready, we could start having vaccinations as early as Feb ? (The March timeline is for Pfizer which is imported, not manufactured here)

The race is on!!!

 

[oznflfan]

Melbourne lab to start producing 30 million doses of promising coronavirus vaccine today

www.9news.com.au

The article states '

From today, the vaccine will begin processing which will take 50 days, reports the Sydney Morning Herald.
"We're making it ahead of time so that should the clinical trial be positive, with the outcomes that we're looking for, the vaccine will be available ... to distribute to the population," CSL chief scientific officer Andrew Nash told the publication.
'

50 days takes it till middle to end of January with doses for 15 mill people ready (2 doses per person).

Does this imply that if Oxford is ready, we could start having vaccinations as early as Feb ? (The March timeline is for Pfizer which is imported, not manufactured here)

As much as I'd like to agree, seems everything takes a buttload more time than it should, and I reckon if you are vaccinated by middle of the year would be best case scenario, and permission granted to fly oversea's and be allowed back without quarantine again, best case, by end of 2021.

I figure it will take Australian Government 6 months from vaccinations to make a decision and judgement call based on further medical advice and testing to open borders. The vaccine won't be the immediate golden ticket, trust me, the early adopters will be waiting months chomping at the bit trying to book/travel.

As stated prior, even with vaccine, beginning of year 2022 the first time for what was traditional planned or spur of the moment travel.

Even though pent up demand, I reckon a lot of people, including myself, would probably leave it at least 6 months before we can (relatively normally) travel before actually taking the plunge. Just to ensure all is well with the process, whatever that may be.

 

[mrfreeze]

The race is on!!!

The Amazing Race - Covid style..

Which takes me off on a slight tangent, allegedly they were filming The Amazing Race Australia in Tasmania a week ago.
So contestants got around the travel ban / quarantine issues easily.....

 

[ayushamity]

I figure it will take Australian Government 6 months from vaccinations to make a decision and judgement call based on further medical advice and testing to open borders. The vaccine won't be the immediate golden ticket, trust me, the early adopters will be waiting months chomping at the bit trying to book/travel.

Agreed. But this is more so that If you can get vaccinated, you can get into other countries as most countries will want proof of vaccination.

You can get exemption fairly easily if you going for more than 3 months and know that you are stuck at the back of the queue for coming back due to incoming arrival caps.

I am just looking to get out of the country ASAP.