Predictions of when international flights may resume/bans lifted

[MEL_Traveller]

As much as I'd like to agree, seems everything takes a buttload more time than it should...

Considering many said a vaccine would take years... and many others said there would never be a vaccine... I think we have moved pretty quick!

While I disagreed with big business demanding we all open up when there was no vaccine, now would be their time to lobby to get this vaccine distributed and administered as quickly as possible.

 

[Ric]

How will it work when different countries use different vaccine? Say Australia uses Astra Zeneca vaccine and say, Thailand uses SinoPharma vaccine, would Australia recognise Thai visitors with the SinoPharma vaccine and vice versa?

 

[MEL_Traveller]

How will it work when different countries use different vaccine? Say Australia uses Astra Zeneca vaccine and say, Thailand uses SinoPharma vaccine, would Australia recognise Thai visitors with the SinoPharma vaccine and vice versa?

Good question. And I guess the same applies to us here in Australia? If we have three vaccines... let's say one is 95% effective, the others are 80% and 70%, do we get to choose which one we get? Do we just take the one that is available?

I suspect countries demanding a vaccine with a minimum effectiveness would be difficult to enforce, for a number of reasons... both practical and political.

 

[Ric]

The SinoPharma vaccine will surely be political!!

 

[hb13]

It seems like Moderna is about to release their results for their Stage III trials pretty soon as well:

Reuters | Breaking International News & Views

Find latest news from every corner of the globe at Reuters.com, your online source for breaking international news coverage.

uk.reuters.com

It seems like Dr Fauci thinks the results would be pretty good, because it is using the same technology as Pfizer's vaccine. Overall great news - on top of the fact that AZD/Oxford may also possibly have positive results in the next few weeks.


Theoretically, let's assume that we have 3 vaccines (Pfizer, Moderna, AZD) approved and in use by Jan 2021 - when do people envision we will get to a point where we have quarantine free travel for most of the world again?

I'm going to fathom a guess and say Q2/Q3 2022.

 

[ayushamity]

I'm going to fathom a guess and say Q2/Q3 2022.

It entirely depends on the effect vaccine has on infection rates for US and Europe.

I read that the US plans to vaccinate all their population by April if using Oxford vaccine. So if the infection rates drop in Q1 next year, by Q2 should see international travel.

Oxford is MUCH MUCH easier to mass produce and distribute than Pfizer of Moderna so much faster vaccination timeframes.

So I guess its a matter of seeing if Oxford vaccine comes through by end of the year. If it does, they will literally start vaccinations the next day across the world cause many countries have already produced millions of doses in anticipation (India manufactured like 100 million doses already)

 

[Pom-DownUnder]

It seems like Moderna is about to release their results for their Stage III trials pretty soon as well:

Reuters | Breaking International News & Views

Find latest news from every corner of the globe at Reuters.com, your online source for breaking international news coverage.

uk.reuters.com

It seems like Dr Fauci thinks the results would be pretty good, because it is using the same technology as Pfizer's vaccine. Overall great news - on top of the fact that AZD/Oxford may also possibly have positive results in the next few weeks.


Theoretically, let's assume that we have 3 vaccines (Pfizer, Moderna, AZD) approved and in use by Jan 2021 - when do people envision we will get to a point where we have quarantine free travel for most of the world again?

I'm going to fathom a guess and say Q2/Q3 2022.

If oxford goes through en mass in Jan 2021 there is no wayyyyyy it would take into 2022 before travel can be opened up, i would HOPE for 1/4/21 but late Q2 is more realistic i think

 

[hb13]

If oxford goes through en mass in Jan 2021 there is no wayyyyyy it would take into 2022 before travel can be opened up, i would HOPE for 1/4/21 but late Q2 is more realistic i think

I really hope you're right! I think we all want travel again.

 

[MEL_Traveller]

I really hope you're right! I think we all want travel again.

Business will be crying for tourists to come in. We won't be allowing tourists in is Aussies can't get out. I expect there to be significant pressure from business to allow freedom of travel. (Although perhaps not from Qantas. It possible QF may have invested too much in downsizing and parking their fleet for them to want to be able to move any quicker than late 2021.)

 

[oznflfan]

If oxford goes through en mass in Jan 2021 there is no wayyyyyy it would take into 2022 before travel can be opened up, i would HOPE for 1/4/21 but late Q2 is more realistic i think

Have you seen how conservative Scomo and the state premiers are? QLD won't open up to Sydney with 28 days no COVID locally transmitted. What do you think would happen is a Brisbanian/Brisbanite got the shot, travelled to UK, came back and developed COVID a week later. Not sure how this goes with laws and federation (if she can stop travellers leaving or arriving from a state level), but she would shut out returning travellers without government controlled quarantine in a heartbeat.

 

[Tiki]

Vaccinations for travel have been around for many years, especially the yellow fever one. Up until a few years ago, it required a booster every 10 years, then was finally declared one jab and you are immune for life. I would expect something similar with the Covid jab. They will give a validity to how long the jab is effective, then you need a booster and it will be recorded on the same yellow card or a digital version. There are many countries in Africa and South America that won't allow you in without the yellow fever card, and similarly you have to show it when re-entering Australia. It does not matter if others in Australia have the yellow fever vaccine. If *I* have it, it makes me not a risk.

So I am really struggling to see the relevance of others getting the Covid jab when it becomes available. If I have the jab, then I am not a threat to others so let me travel as I wish! If people choose not to get it, that's on them for refusing to protect themselves if it is being offered with no cost.

 

[MEL_Traveller]

Have you seen how conservative Scomo and the state premiers are? QLD won't open up to Sydney with 28 days no COVID locally transmitted. What do you think would happen is a Brisbanian/Brisbanite got the shot, travelled to UK, came back and developed COVID a week later. Not sure how this goes with laws and federation (if she can stop travellers leaving or arriving from a state level), but she would shut out returning travellers without government controlled quarantine in a heartbeat.

The federal government has not been conservative... they wanted all states to open their borders. The confusing part was why they wanted internal borders open but still have national ones closed.

Immigration is handled by the federal government. I don't believe states could unilaterally refuse arriving passengers. Although they can probably insist on quarantine.

So I am really struggling to see the relevance of others getting the Covid jab when it becomes available. If I have the jab, then I am not a threat to others so let me travel as I wish! If people choose not to get it, that's on them for refusing to protect themselves if it is being offered with no cost.

I think the concern is the level of effectiveness. If your jab is the '70%' one that leaves a pretty big margin for you to still contract it and bring it home.

 

[oznflfan]

Vaccinations for travel have been around for many years, especially the yellow fever one. Up until a few years ago, it required a booster every 10 years, then was finally declared one jab and you are immune for life. I would expect something similar with the Covid jab. They will give a validity to how long the jab is effective, then you need a booster and it will be recorded on the same yellow card or a digital version. There are many countries in Africa and South America that won't allow you in without the yellow fever card, and similarly you have to show it when re-entering Australia. It does not matter if others in Australia have the yellow fever vaccine. If *I* have it, it makes me not a risk.

So I am really struggling to see the relevance of others getting the Covid jab when it becomes available. If I have the jab, then I am not a threat to others so let me travel as I wish! If people choose not to get it, that's on them for refusing to protect themselves if it is being offered with no cost.

The problem is that until someone important (i.e. WHO, etc) provides unchallengeable evidence that the vaccine provides 100% no risk no worries absolute indefinite ridgey-didge fair dinkum full protection without even a small chance COVID get's in, powers that be will break our hearts.

I'd love to pop over to maybe Malaysia or somewhere close in September next year, but thinking that is a remote possibility.

Happy to be proven wrong, but look at Scomo's words last week on his presser.

 

[RAM]

But from the figures you provided before those Air India flights return almost full.Suggests they are repatriation flights rather than scheduled services.

No, fully commercial flights. Remember that India has the most people registered with DFAT wanting to return to Australia. Due to outsourcing & IT (huge number of Indian IT workers in Australia). For example one major bank does all of its mortgage processing there.

Air India did have scheduled services into Melbourne prior to the international 2nd wave closure, and it flies scheduled services into Sydney twice a week using B787s alternating between SYD and Washington (IAD).

Yoy may have misread the numbers as the outward flights operated at 52% of available seat.

In Sept Air India operated 12 passenger flights to/from Australia, bringing in 518 passengers out of 3,072 seats available. They carried 1,624 passenger outbound with 3,072 seats available. Up from 6 flights @ 33per flight into Australia in August.

If the Australian Govt had said to Air India:

"We will allow you to bring in 87 passengers on your Tuesday flight next week, instead of across your scheduled Tuesday & Thursday flights provided your Thursday flight operates on these fares to carry 175 passengers from New Delhi to Darwin on your 256 seat capacity B787."

Result - Australian taxpayers saves around $1.5mn from subsidising Q, people on the flight could pay (based on listed Air India fares) $150pp. After all the Federal Govt is already paying the bulk of Q's wages bill & foreign Govts have also been paying Q millions (before Q halted all international flights).

Whereas the Australian Govt looks like carryovers from Colonial times, penny-pinching colonials at that - relying on other country's airlines to maintain air travel to/from Australia whilst almost guaranteeing they operate at a loss meanwhile they reward the company that left over 240,000 Australians stranded when Q cancelled all international flights on less than 24hrs notice.

Do you think AJ deserves to be rewarded given the bulk of Q's wages bill is being paid by you & I already?

 

[jakeseven7]

The problem is that until someone important (i.e. WHO, etc) provides unchallengeable evidence that the vaccine provides 100% no risk no worries absolute indefinite ridgey-didge fair dinkum full protection without even a small chance COVID get's in, powers that be will break our hearts.

I'd love to pop over to maybe Malaysia or somewhere close in September next year, but thinking that is a remote possibility.

Happy to be proven wrong, but look at Scomo's words last week on his presser.

It’s also the states.... they hold all the cards here unfortunately, yes the Feds can technically let people in but the states dictate what happens the second they exit immigration.

Given we have two states in QLD and WA that still do not allow travel from NSW and VIC I can’t even guess how long it is going to take them to wrap their heads around international arrivals.... can’t even imagine.

 

[RAM]

Considering many said a vaccine would take years... and many others said there would never be a vaccine... I think we have moved pretty quick!

While I disagreed with big business demanding we all open up when there was no vaccine, now would be their time to lobby to get this vaccine distributed and administered as quickly as possible.

I admit it - I was in the camp 'There has never been a successful coronavirus vaccine developed' & I still hope I am proven resoundingly wrong. The bets have not been paid out just yet.

However, why do we seem to be operating by fax vs some other countries by fibre optic?

I received this email from a US drug store (chemist) a couple of days back. Despite all the criticism of the US on CV - I haven't seen anything like this within Australia. I do hope the 'distribution plan' won't be a re-run of the 'comprehensive National Aged Care CV plan' that's still missing in action.



Has anything been contracted within Australia (other than for one drug maker to have to handle the logistics of getting it to locations across the country) for administering the vaccine(s) to people?

 

[RAM]

It’s also the states.... they hold all the cards here unfortunately, yes the Feds can technically let people in but the states dictate what happens the second they exit immigration.

Given we have two states in QLD and WA that still do not allow travel from NSW and VIC I can’t even guess how long it is going to take them to wrap their heads around international arrivals.... can’t even imagine.

No need to try and imagine - it is real! Possibly does not suit the narrative (especially when going into the Qld State Election).

Queensland has been taking international arrivals for months as have WA - just both have had no major problems with them.

Qld took 2,217 international air arrivals in September (higher proportion than pre-CV) & 2,931 in August.
WA took 2,038 international air arrivals in both August & September.

 

[jakeseven7]

No need to try and imagine - it is real! Possibly does not suit the narrative (especially when going into the Qld State Election).

Queensland has been taking international arrivals for months as have WA - just both have had no major problems with them.

Qld took 2,217 international air arrivals in September (higher proportion than pre-CV) & 2,931 in August.
WA took 2,038 international air arrivals in both August & September.

Quarantine free? Nope... Hence my point about once the passenger gets to landside they are in the hands of the state....

That is going to be the rate limiter.

 

[MEL_Traveller]

Has anything been contracted within Australia (other than for one drug maker to have to handle the logistics of getting it to locations across the country) for administering the vaccine(s) to people?

It's interesting... CVS says they will be distributing the vaccine according to prioritisation guidelines... but doesn't say it is free. Is it free in the US? Or like all other things, is it dependent on having healthcare?

The major pharmacies already supply the flu vaccine. I guess you could use those existing networks if it came to that?

 

[Scarlett]

The elephant in the room is really when will insurance companies start selling comprehensive travel insurance again? Will being vaccinated allow access to a complete policy or will they maintain complete exclusion on anything covid related?

Some will choose to self insure, some will go without, but I'd suggest the majority will be beholden to the outcomes of the insurance conversation; something that, in public at least, doesn't appear to have started.