Predictions of when international flights may resume/bans lifted

[HappyFlyerFamily]

University of Queensland vaccine abandoned ...sigh

The Australian coronavirus vaccine - made by the University of Queensland- has been dealt a crushing blow after several trial participants returned false positive HIV test results.

The Sydney Morning Herald reports this morning that the billion-dollar deal for the Morrison government to buy more than 50 million doses has now been terminated after the bombshell revelation, and that UQ will abandon its current clinical trials.
It reports that the HIV detections picked up in past weeks were in fact false and the health of the participants has not been put at risk.
The vaccine uses what is called a protein and adjuvant platform, which contains the COVID-19 spike protein and a “molecular clamp”. A small part of this comes from the human immunodeficiency virus, known as HIV, that is not able to infect people or replicate.
The Herald spoke to a source involved in the trial who said although all participants had been told there was a remote possibility HIV markers could be found in tests during the trial, medical researchers had not expected it to occur.
Australia has entered into 5 separate agreements for the supply of COVID-19 vaccines, if they are proved to be safe and effective, including the UQ vaccine which is being developed in partnership with Australian global biotech company CSL.

UQ vaccine risk 'bigger than we thought'

Department of Health Secretary and former chief medical officer Brendan Murphy told reporters today that the risks of the University of Queensland's vaccine became "a bigger problem than anyone had anticipated".

www.news.com.au

 

[MEL_Traveller]

University of Queensland vaccine abandoned ...sigh

The Australian coronavirus vaccine - made by the University of Queensland- has been dealt a crushing blow after several trial participants returned false positive HIV test results.

UQ vaccine risk 'bigger than we thought'

Department of Health Secretary and former chief medical officer Brendan Murphy told reporters today that the risks of the University of Queensland's vaccine became "a bigger problem than anyone had anticipated".

www.news.com.au

You wonder how much was down to the false positives - which would seem manageable if it was expected? - and the fact it was not going to be ready until the end of 2021 - a year or more after its rivals.

 

[Pushka]

Just to show that even a pre/test doesn’t stop a trip to nowhere being disrupted/ruined

'Worst fear': Cruise ship passenger tests positive for coronavirus

Covid was detected on a 'cruise-to-nowhere', with nearly 1700 passengers told to remain in their cabins.

au.yahoo.com

I think that turned out to be a false positive.

On the news last night it was mentioned that pharmacists will be authorised to dispense the covid vaccine.

I think the key take out from the adverse reactions is for people with extreme allergies, as was the case for the two instances noted in the UK. This was in line with the trial data which suggested 1 allergic reaction per 1000 (the UK was 2 for the 'several thousand' dispensed on the day).

My son faints with vaccines. That's a side effect and important for him but not something to prevent anyone else getting any vaccine.

 

[gethsemene]

I think you guys are looking at this backwards, IF the vaccine doesn’t stop transmission (it will likely slow it as no symptoms = less transmission of respiratory viruses) the threshold to reopen will be when everyone in Australia who wants the vaccine has had it. Then it doesn’t matter if it comes in as our population is immune.

 

[OATEK]

I think you guys are looking at this backwards, IF the vaccine doesn’t stop transmission (it will likely slow it as no symptoms = less transmission of respiratory viruses) the threshold to reopen will be when everyone in Australia who wants the vaccine has had it. Then it doesn’t matter if it comes in as our population is immune.

If the vaccine does not stop transmission then I don't see how the population can be immune. They might be safe from the worst effects, but immune?

 

[gethsemene]

If the vaccine does not stop transmission then I don't see how the population can be immune. They might be safe from the worst effects, but immune?

Hah, whilst technically a quasi medical professional in real life, in this I am an ignorant layperson, but I thought immunity was exactly that, you didn’t show effects of an illness. So carriers, not sufferers. For example if you have already had a disease (say chickenpox) you can catch it again, but your immune response immediately kills it, which we call immunity. This is what the vaccine is designed to create.
I probably got the term wrong, but the principle is if 5% of people show signs prior to vaccination, only 0.5% will show signs post vaccination! So once the Australian population is vaccinated we can reopen, the state of the country of origin should be irrelevant!
The counter argument to this, is people arriving unvaccinated may put undue strain on our health system if they get sick...

 

[Pom-DownUnder]

This is going to pi$$ off a few here.....prisoners amongst the first to receive the vaccine!

Prisoners to be among the first to receive COVID vaccine in Australia

Prisoners and people with chronic obesity will be among the first people to receive a COVID-19 vaccine when...

www.9news.com.au

Ahhh finally some good news, eat your way to freedom as per the other people highlighted in the article lol

 

[ayushamity]

National Cabinet finished and international borders were not even on the agenda to be discussed. No mention of travel bubbles or anything

 

[dajop]

National Cabinet finished and international borders were not even on the agenda to be discussed. No mention of travel bubbles or anything

Never will be. Did you not know, the rest of the world, is all the same as far as risk goes?

1 case is the same as 100,000 cases. Means a bubble can't happen.

 

[HappyFlyerFamily]

Well apparently at the post National Cabinet press conference 45000 Aussies returned and 39000 waiting to return. On that ‘success’ rate, the list might be exhausted by about September 2021. Perhaps one limb to removing travel ban.

 

[HappyFlyerFamily]

Australians hoping the COVID-19 vaccine will deliver the golden ticket to opening the nation’s borders and resuming international air travel could be getting their hopes up prematurely.

The nation’s top health chief Brendan Murphy has cautioned today that there’s still a long way to go before Australia can return to quarantine free international travel.

And the border ban may need to stay in place for longer until experts know more about how the vaccine works, particularly among carriers who are not showing any symptoms.

Huge blow to overseas travel hopes

Australians hoping the COVID-19 vaccine will deliver the golden ticket to opening the nation’s borders and resuming international air travel could be getting their hopes up prematurely.

www.news.com.au

 

[jakeseven7]

Never will be. Did you not know, the rest of the world, is all the same as far as risk goes?

1 case is the same as 100,000 cases. Means a bubble can't happen.

Yup, not going to happen. I suspect quarantine free travel is also a long long way away too still.

 

[ayushamity]

Well apparently at the post National Cabinet press conference 45000 Aussies returned and 39000 waiting to return. On that ‘success’ rate, the list might be exhausted by about September 2021. Perhaps one limb to removing travel ban.

Hopefully if you are vaccinated, you could bypass quarantine so the caps don't really apply to vaccinated travelers then.

The fed gov keep on hammering the point that borders are closed because returning Aussies are priority BUT they will not be able to bypass quarantine and will still be trickling in far after the vaccination program has commenced in Australia.

And overseas tourists will be be getting vaccinated Q1 next year. So does that mean they won't even allow in vaccinated travelers without because it would look bad against Aussies already stuck overseas ?

 

[ayushamity]

Maybe I have just been so over the last few months BUT I think that at the moment, all the fed gov responses are very very risk averse because of the clusterfuk overseas.

If the infection rates do start coming down heavily overseas in response to the vaccines, I think their tune will change slightly

Edit: Thats why i said - Doesn't matter when we get the vaccines, its the OVERSEAS who need to get vaccinated first so that the infection rate comes down dramatically.

 

[oznflfan]

Maybe I have just been so over the last few months BUT I think that at the moment, all the fed gov responses are very very risk averse because of the clusterfuk overseas.

If the infection rates do start coming down heavily overseas in response to the vaccines, I think their tune will change slightly

Edit: Thats why i said - Doesn't matter when we get the vaccines, its the OVERSEAS who need to get vaccinated first so that the infection rate comes down dramatically.

Agree, getting more pessimistic daily.

NZ quarantine free by 1/7/2021

Unrestricted oversea's travel (with vaccination) by 1/1/2022

 

[dajop]

If the infection rates do start coming down heavily overseas in response to the vaccines, I think their tune will change slightly

What is the target though? What does "start coming down heavily" even mean? If US gets down to just 30 new cases a day (from 200,000) , will that be good enough? Or does it have to be zero? Singapore is at ~30 US equivalent new cases/day over last two weeks (i.e. adjusted for population, 0.5/day over two weeks, 0.25/day over four weeks when not adjusted ), and that's not good enough.

 

[kpc]

I know some of you are hoping otherwise, but I don't expect international travel without quarantining to occur til 2022 at the earliest....look at our most frequent travel destinations, US and UK / Europe where Covid is rampant.... the vaccine has not been proven to be effective against transmission (at this point). Also look at all the Aussies OS trying to get home and can't so I can't see the Government lifting the international travel ban anytime soon. PS all it takes to burst a travel bubble is one community acquired Covid case! I'm planning domestic travel only in 2021...albeit cautiuously and not too far in advance in case domestic borders close again

 

[RAM]

Hah, whilst technically a quasi medical professional in real life, in this I am an ignorant layperson, but I thought immunity was exactly that, you didn’t show effects of an illness. So carriers, not sufferers. For example if you have already had a disease (say chickenpox) you can catch it again, but your immune response immediately kills it, which we call immunity. This is what the vaccine is designed to create.
I probably got the term wrong, but the principle is if 5% of people show signs prior to vaccination, only 0.5% will show signs post vaccination! So once the Australian population is vaccinated we can reopen, the state of the country of origin should be irrelevant!
The counter argument to this, is people arriving unvaccinated may put undue strain on our health system if they get sick...

Ah grasshopper (google it) if life were only so simple.

The different vaccines appear (on data released so far) have different success pathways. It is not like a power switch which either has an off or on position - the vaccines work for your body as a whole (apparently) but not necessarily 100% of your body. Just the parts that can kill you otherwise. So for example the vaccine may kill CV when it reaches your lungs, or your lower respiratory tract, or your upper respiratory track but not your lower, or perhaps your eyes, or sinuses etc.

Vaccine X may stop you from developing full blown CV but it may not stop you spreading it due to your upper respiratory tract being infected (so you're coughing or sneezing or just plain breathing). The Pfizer & Moderna phase 3 trials (according to their filings) rely on phone calls to see if people have caught CV they don't test the particpants weekly, fortnightly etc - relies on a diary 'how do I feel'. So doubtful they're catching many of the asymptomatic cases.

From News.com.au article mentioned in a post above:

“We still don’t know what the vaccines will do in terms of complete – prevention of transmission of the virus,” Dr Murphy said.

“So the vaccines can prevent disease. We know that very clearly. The extent to which they will effectively prevent, for example, asymptomatic transmission or people bringing the virus with them when they travel, we still have to find out.

Dr Murphy added that it could be another 12 months before experts really know the answer.

“I think over the course of next calendar year, as we get more and more information on more and more vaccines we will have a much clearer picture,’’ Dr Murphy said.

The AZ/Oxford vaccine trial result (with no errors admitted to) was 62% successful over a short time frame - how long this efficacy lasts is also not known (as is the case with the Pfizer & Moderna vaccines as they have only been in Phase 3 trials for roughly 6-7 months, & their average participant for only 3-4 months since their 1st dose. Longevity success will only be known in another year to eighteen months when these participants have had it in their system for that long. Initial results for Pfizer & Moderna are good at this stage. AZ not so good.

 

[mrfreeze]

So if Pfizer & Moderna were relying on phone calls from participants in the trial that surely would put into question how accurate the results are.

The AZ/Oxford trial the participant I know who was part of the trial was tested every Tuesday and was positive after one of them, guess they had the placebo.

 

[Pushka]

Australians hoping the COVID-19 vaccine will deliver the golden ticket to opening the nation’s borders and resuming international air travel could be getting their hopes up prematurely.

The nation’s top health chief Brendan Murphy has cautioned today that there’s still a long way to go before Australia can return to quarantine free international travel.

And the border ban may need to stay in place for longer until experts know more about how the vaccine works, particularly among carriers who are not showing any symptoms.

Huge blow to overseas travel hopes

Australians hoping the COVID-19 vaccine will deliver the golden ticket to opening the nation’s borders and resuming international air travel could be getting their hopes up prematurely.

www.news.com.au

I was thinking. The Qld vaccine was successful at fighting Covid but the impact it had on false positive HIV was the issue. I'm unlikely ever to be in the space where I would contract HIV, as would many others. So that impact makes no difference for me. A shame that many could safely take the QLD vaccine - I'm thinking the elderly here. Although maybe those nursing homes are more social than I realise.