Predictions of when international flights may resume/bans lifted

[RAM]

So if Pfizer & Moderna were relying on phone calls from participants in the trial that surely would put into question how accurate the results are.

The AZ/Oxford trial the participant I know who was part of the trial was tested every Tuesday and was positive after one of them, guess they had the placebo.

The phone calls were (are) made to the participants (not by the participants which would have been worse) - & yes it does very much raise issues about the claims. This may be why the US members of the panel that approved Pfizer today were split 17 for & 4 against.

AZ/Oxford get marks for doing actual physical weekly testing but lose many more from not being able to ensure they used the correct dosage. With AZ though it is not clear, from their filings, whether the weekly testing is solely for Phase 2 participants as their study is a combined Phase 2 & Phase 3 trial. Exactly how this is done is not clear in what filings I've seen so far.

That this dosage error was only picked up weeks later is the 'canary in the coalmine' potentially. How did they finally discover the error (which their media release does not call an error)? Since the results were so different 90% efficacy for a small number of particpants in 3 sub groups out of 60 vs 62% for the other 57 groups - they knew something was different. Just had to work backwards to try and work out what it was.

The issue with whether vaccinated people can still be spreaders is what I suspect will delay international borders being freed up. Does make you wonder why it was not tested in the first place doesn't it?

 

[RAM]

I was thinking. The Qld vaccine was successful at fighting Covid but the impact it had on false positive HIV was the issue. I'm unlikely ever to be in the space where I would contract HIV, as would many others. So that impact makes no difference for me. A shame that many could safely take the QLD vaccine - I'm thinking the elderly here. Although maybe those nursing homes are more social than I realise.

But would kill off all blood donations made by recipients. As all blood donations are tested for HIV, Hep B, Hep C etc.

Blood testing and safety

Know why we test every blood donation in the name of safety.

www.donateblood.com.au

A little detail that Scomo & other stooges did not think was worthwhile mentioning for some reason... Cannot think why! Even though it was discussed earlier this week.

After all, not having any blood supply within Australia wouldn't be a problem.

BTW: Red Cross do visit some nursing homes seeking 'donations' using a mobile blood service vehicle - so even limited use would cut blood donations.

 

[Flashback]

And overseas tourists will be be getting vaccinated Q1 next year. So does that mean they won't even allow in vaccinated travelers without because it would look bad against Aussies already stuck overseas ?

That's not guaranteed. Don't get hung up on the fact that because vaccinations have started, everyone will have it really soon. I'm in the UK and higher up the list of people likely to receive it, with a friend of ours even higher up that priority list and should be one of the first groups and haven't heard boo. Most people won't start getting it until Q2 and even then, that's only if there is enough to go around. It's shot 1, 21 days later shot 2, then 7 days later for it to start being effective so it's a 28 day cycle.

 

[oznflfan]

Slip sliding away.....slip sliding awayyyyy.....the nearer then vaccine the more your slip sliding away

 

[Comoman]

That's not guaranteed. Don't get hung up on the fact that because vaccinations have started, everyone will have it really soon. I'm in the UK and higher up the list of people likely to receive it, with a friend of ours even higher up that priority list and should be one of the first groups and haven't heard boo.

For balance - I'm also in the UK and in group 9 (50-55). I have already received an SMS from the NHS advising me that I will be receiving an invitation to attend when it's my turn and where I will need to go.

 

[Pushka]

But would kill off all blood donations made by recipients. As all blood donations are tested for HIV, Hep B, Hep C etc.

Blood testing and safety

Know why we test every blood donation in the name of safety.

www.donateblood.com.au

A little detail that Scomo & other stooges did not think was worthwhile mentioning for some reason... Cannot think why! Even though it was discussed earlier this week.

After all, not having any blood supply within Australia wouldn't be a problem.

BTW: Red Cross do visit some nursing homes seeking 'donations' using a mobile blood service vehicle - so even limited use would cut blood donations.

Excellent point. I hadn't thought of that. Although amongst the elderly it's unlikely they would be donating blood.

 

[hb13]

I know someone of you are hoping otherwise, but I don't expect international travel without quarantining to occur til 2022 at the earliest....look at our most frequent travel destinations, US and UK / Europe where Covid is rampant.... the vaccine has not been proven to be effective against transmission (at this point). Also look at all the Aussies OS trying to get home and can't so I can't see the Government lifting the international travel ban anytime soon. PS all it takes to burst a travel bubble is one community acquired Covid case! I'm planning domestic travel only in 2021...albeit cautiuously and not too far in advance in case domestic borders close again

I agree with you regarding quarantine free travel. I think an optimistic point is mid 2022 - maybe. 2021 can be completely written off. However, I'm not sure what you mean by the vaccine not proving to be effective? Vaccinations began in the UK literally 3 days ago and have not even been approved in the US or Europe?

 

[hb13]

Australians hoping the COVID-19 vaccine will deliver the golden ticket to opening the nation’s borders and resuming international air travel could be getting their hopes up prematurely.

The nation’s top health chief Brendan Murphy has cautioned today that there’s still a long way to go before Australia can return to quarantine free international travel.

And the border ban may need to stay in place for longer until experts know more about how the vaccine works, particularly among carriers who are not showing any symptoms.

Huge blow to overseas travel hopes

Australians hoping the COVID-19 vaccine will deliver the golden ticket to opening the nation’s borders and resuming international air travel could be getting their hopes up prematurely.

www.news.com.au

Agreed. The best case scenario here is quarantine free travel some time in 2022. And that is IF, and only IF, we have at least four vaccines approved and in use in the US, UK and Europe by Jan/Feb 2021.

The four vaccines I'm alluding to would be four of these five: Pfizer/BionTech, Oxford/AZD, Moderna, J&J and Novavax.

 

[DC3]

Scomo won’t be waiting for 2022. Mid-2021 at the latest. Don’t give him any crazy 2022 dates for when he peeks on AFF.

 

[hb13]

Scomo won’t be waiting for 2022. Mid-2021 at the latest. Don’t give him any crazy 2022 dates for when he peeks on AFF.

So you think we will have quarantine free travel by mid-2021??

I don't think there is even a remote chance that happens

 

[DC3]

So you think we will have quarantine free travel by mid-2021??

I don't think there is even a remote chance that happens

Yes, we all have varying predictions. . Time will tell.

Things may move more quickly than we expect.

 

[hb13]

Yes, we all have varying predictions. . Time will tell.

Things may move more quickly than we expect.

I genuinely, really hope you're right. I'm based in London and it sucks not being able to go back home to visit my family in Melbourne.

I think seeing that nothing has moved, one becomes more and more pessimistic with time. There is still yet to be a 'true' travel bubble with NZ.

 

[oznflfan]

Scomo won’t be waiting for 2022. Mid-2021 at the latest. Don’t give him any crazy 2022 dates for when he peeks on AFF.

Give him his choice and he'll commit to 2027

 

[james4321]

Yes, we all have varying predictions. . Time will tell.

Things may move more quickly than we expect.

Or maybe they wont. We are all guessing

 

[DC3]

Or maybe they wont. We are all guessing

Exactly.

‘Guessing of when international flights may resume/bans lifted’ thread.

Edit: With over 3700 posts so far.

 

[ayushamity]

New Aussie travel bubble in the works

A much anticipated travel bubble between Australia and Singapore could be on the horizon, despite some airlines – including Qantas – downplaying any possible corridors until a vaccine is available.

www.news.com.au

Are these guys high??

 

[RAM]

Exactly.

‘Guessing of when international flights may resume/bans lifted’ thread.

Edit: With over 3700 posts so far.

Lateral thought - how many posts will this thread reach BEFORE the borders are 100% open.

My pick: 11,793 posts (just such an optimist!)

 

[oznflfan]

Based on posts building towards 'the endgame' you are probably bang on, with ability to travel sometime in 1st H of 2022 (I think you have to bar some third world countries that may still be closed).

 

[Flashback]

For balance - I'm also in the UK and in group 9 (50-55). I have already received an SMS from the NHS advising me that I will be receiving an invitation to attend when it's my turn and where I will need to go.

Looking at the NHS site on this I would sit in group 4 or 6 (likely 6), so interesting that I haven't received any SMS yet. My friend would be in group 4 (and also group 9) and they've not received anything either. Perhaps it depends which NHS trust you sit in, also.

 

[JohnM]

University of Queensland vaccine abandoned ...sigh

The Australian coronavirus vaccine - made by the University of Queensland- has been dealt a crushing blow after several trial participants returned false positive HIV test results.
The Sydney Morning Herald reports this morning that the billion-dollar deal for the Morrison government to buy more than 50 million doses has now been terminated after the bombshell revelation, and that UQ will abandon its current clinical trials.
It reports that the HIV detections picked up in past weeks were in fact false and the health of the participants has not been put at risk.
The vaccine uses what is called a protein and adjuvant platform, which contains the COVID-19 spike protein and a “molecular clamp”. A small part of this comes from the human immunodeficiency virus, known as HIV, that is not able to infect people or replicate.
The Herald spoke to a source involved in the trial who said although all participants had been told there was a remote possibility HIV markers could be found in tests during the trial, medical researchers had not expected it to occur.
Australia has entered into 5 separate agreements for the supply of COVID-19 vaccines, if they are proved to be safe and effective, including the UQ vaccine which is being developed in partnership with Australian global biotech company CSL.

UQ vaccine risk 'bigger than we thought'

Department of Health Secretary and former chief medical officer Brendan Murphy told reporters today that the risks of the University of Queensland's vaccine became "a bigger problem than anyone had anticipated".

www.news.com.au

Well, all the hype about 'Australian world-first' and 'breakthrough' was certainly right...

Trying to hold down a uni publicity outfit these days must be like trying to tame the biggest, meanest scrub bull at an outback rodeo.