Predictions of when international flights may resume/bans lifted

[Pushka]

Oh dear, that rules it out then. I have no business and I wouldn't wish any illness on my sister. Do we have any idea how long those rules will stay in place?

Plans change. I just mentioned the rules as they currently stand. Also, don't transit through Doha on Qatar as I believe that will require iso in UK. It did when my son left in October.

 

[muppet]

Yes indeed. Subject to Pushka's comment, remembering the key word is plan (to spend 3 months overseas, irrespective of reason). You could even take a few day stopover in Singapore enroute if you were happy to take and pay for a COVID test on arrival in Singapore.

Of course, unless you travel in a premium cabin, your “plan” for three months may well turn into an eternity.

I wouldn’t be leaving unless I could indefinitely support myself overseas.

 

[MEL_Traveller]

Do we have any idea how long those rules will stay in place?

The 'travel ban' has just been extended to March 2021. Most expect it will be extended for another three months after that, taking us to at least June 2021. By that stage we should know the outcomes of some of the vaccine roll-outs.

 

[CityRail]

The 'travel ban' has just been extended to March 2021. Most expect it will be extended for another three months after that, taking us to at least June 2021. By that stage we should know the outcomes of some of the vaccine roll-outs.

Well at least NZ would have opened to us by then.
So don't think it will be extended till June.

 

[Flashback]

Plans change. I just mentioned the rules as they currently stand. Also, don't transit through Doha on Qatar as I believe that will require iso in UK. It did when my son left in October.

Qatar (plus UAE etc.) is on the travel corridor list now so no issues in transit now.

 

[hb13]

I think the current travel ban will be extended till the end of 2021. I also think that the 14 day hotel quarantine required on arrival into Australia will last till the end of 2021 at least - except if you're coming from countries who basically have killed the virus (NZ now, maybe Singapore, Taiwan, Vietnam etc in the next few months). After this, there may be a shorter quarantine period with testing for a while.

It is clear that the government doesn't value international travel or visitors, and they will probably keep the country closed off for at least another year.

There are over 40,000 Australians who can't get home (that we know of for sure - there is probably more), and the government has done very little to show they care or actually do anything. Scomo has said he will bring stranded Aussies home by Xmas, yet, there are still 30k Aussies stranded: Kevin Rudd criticises Scott Morrison's 'broken promise' to get stranded Australians home by Christmas

If the government won't do enough to bring its own stranded citizens home, I would suggest tourists or visitors to Australia won't be able to get there till 2022.

While the vaccine roll-out has begun in a few countries now - it'll take a year or two to get everyone globally vaccinated.

 

[MEL_Traveller]

The whole cap thing on arrivals is the real limiting factor, although I guess it wouldn't really be appealing to tourists. I mean who would want to spend 14 days in the holiday inn sydney with no fresh air when you could spend two weeks at a five star deluxe hotel in bangkok or coughet or the maldives complete with three gourmet meals a day and a private plunge pool?

According to the government they brought home 30K+ people, but the list has doubled in the last few months. Dunno how you can bring everyone home with the caps.

 

[HappyFlyerFamily]

Australia apparently got 45000 home in the last 9 months, so for simplicity the current 30000-35000 will be around another 6-7 months

 

[hb13]

The whole cap thing on arrivals is the real limiting factor, although I guess it wouldn't really be appealing to tourists. I mean who would want to spend 14 days in the holiday inn sydney with no fresh air when you could spend two weeks at a five star deluxe hotel in bangkok or coughet or the maldives complete with three gourmet meals a day and a private plunge pool?

According to the government they brought home 30K+ people, but the list has doubled in the last few months. Dunno how you can bring everyone home with the caps.

Agreed. You simply can't bring anyone home with these caps.

Those caps will be there for a long time, and they may be increased slightly possibly every 3 - 4 months.

 

[Pushka]

Agreed. You simply can't bring anyone home with these caps.

Those caps will be there for a long time, and they may be increased slightly possibly every 3 - 4 months.

I don't know. If you are prepared to pay for J and the arrival city doesn't close, then you can get back in. Nephew got stuck when Adelaide closed but his wife found him tickets on JAL. He arrived into Australia on 28 March, left for Paris in mid September, and returned to Australia about 10 days ago. His work is in France.

 

[hb13]

I don't know. If you are prepared to pay for J and the arrival city doesn't close, then you can get back in. Nephew got stuck when Adelaide closed but his wife found him tickets on JAL. He arrived into Australia on 28 March, left for Paris in mid September, and returned to Australia about 10 days ago. His work is in France.

I assume he needs to spend 2 weeks in quarantine though right?

When I said 'anyone' I should have meant everyone - my apologies. And we have to remember that the number of Aussies stranded overseas is growing because of the ridiculous caps imposed as well as Aussies still travelling out of Australia when given an exemption - approx. 95,000 Aussies have been exempted to be able to travel overseas from March.

Australia's international travel ban extended to March 2021

Your passport can stay packed away for a little longer...

www.executivetraveller.com

 

[Pushka]

I assume he needs to spend 2 weeks in quarantine though right?

When I said 'anyone' I should have meant everyone - my apologies. And we have to remember that the number of Aussies stranded overseas is growing because of the ridiculous caps imposed as well as Aussies still travelling out of Australia when given an exemption - approx. 95,000 Aussies have been exempted to be able to travel overseas from March.

Australia's international travel ban extended to March 2021

Your passport can stay packed away for a little longer...

www.executivetraveller.com

Yep. Currently in Sydney. Work is paying for it and he is working remotely. Will come to Adelaide maybe Friday after a negative test.

 

[ethernet]

Operations Research or OR should be used. The desired goal is really elimination, not containment. Look at NSW today and the reaction. Now factor the vaccine delay and staggering is more delay dripfeed bad news tactics, and a feeble attempt to include bubble countries to quell voter backlash. Given travel insurance does not cover changed rules. Do I see quarantine places increasing - no. Do I see vaccine acceptance on maker claims: No. How many months of watching other countries rollouts. Do I see the Cwth punishing the states for being stingy on arrival places. No. Do I see .au following Taiwan's smarts. No. The probability of 2022 looks very real, if bubble exceptions are excluded.

Besides QF feeling bad, random drop-of-hat border closures will put a wet blanket on domestic tourism generally, including excessive hire car rates. What element is missing to achieve and drive down the 5%?? risk as transmission seems more virulent. Thomas Borody's Ivermectin coughtail.

 

[dajop]

Just reading a quote in The Age that states that

As of 11pm on Tuesday, there was a total of 1144 people within the hotel quarantine program

That's over 9 full days of arrivals. So 127/day. Cap is 160/day, so almost 300 places not filled after just over a week, unless they are making it up later in the week.

 

[Toula92122]

Just reading a quote in The Age that states that



That's over 9 full days of arrivals. So 127/day. Cap is 160/day, so almost 300 places not filled after just over a week, unless they are making it up later in the week.

That would not surprise me as given the prices being charged by airlines I suspect seats are going unsold. I noticed when I was stalking fares to come back that seats they were trying to sell for $18k a week before departure would often be down to $6.5k by day of departure and I would imagine many would struggle to jump on a same day fare.

 

[dajop]

That would not surprise me as given the prices being charged by airlines I suspect seats are going unsold. I noticed when I was stalking fares to come back that seats they were trying to sell for $18k a week before departure would often be down to $6.5k by day of departure and I would imagine many would struggle to jump on a same day fare.

Out of Singapore we were monitoring flights (have been for ages) and most flights on SQ into Australia have been sold out at least 3-4 weeks in advance (the main exception being ADL flights), so I expect not many, or even not any unsold seats, otherwise they would be trying to sell them. Expertflyer showed availablity as being 0 for months. May be different originating in the US though.

 

[MEL_Traveller]

Out of Singapore we were monitoring flights (have been for ages) and most flights on SQ into Australia have been sold out at least 3-4 weeks in advance (the main exception being ADL flights), so I expect not many, or even not any unsold seats, otherwise they would be trying to sell them. Expertflyer showed availablity as being 0 for months. May be different originating in the US though.

I think part of the issue is because people are forced to make multiple bookings in order to make sure they get one flight One friend of mine had two confirmed and paid tickets to travel from Europe to Australia three weeks ago. Another currently has four confirmed and paid bookings to get from China to Australia for Jan. They won't know until the last minute if the flights go or get cancelled.

 

[jase05]

Have heard that BA are not returning to Australia until October 31st

 

[N860CR]

Have heard that BA are not returning to Australia until October 31st

Yep correct. Not entirely surprising though. Even if things do rebound before then, the kangaroo route is low yield so it’s not worth risking the costs of managing potential changes

 

[Flashback]

There's now 2 J seats on QR to PER available for anyone who wants them on Monday. That was painful to sort out. Will need to closely monitor the R fare bucket to rebook once the date window opens (yay, now has no lounge access other than their coughpy status based lounges due to their changes to R fare codes) and lock in Christmas next year. Going to book a 4-6 week trip this time and if we still have to quarantine for 2 weeks in a hotel at our cost in 12 months time then so be it, will start saving up now. If not then cool, longer holiday.