Predictions of when international flights may resume/bans lifted

[Pom-DownUnder]

See this massive reaction to the TINY amount of cases in northern beaches, is why the 'we dont really need the vaccine here' attitude is not feasible.

the entire approach has been built around a covid free country with any deviation resulting in massive reactions, thats why we shouldnt be at the back of the queue and waiting another 3 and a half months to vaccinate a single person.

 

[N860CR]

the entire approach has been built around a covid free country with any deviation resulting in massive reactions, thats why we shouldnt be at the back of the queue and waiting another 3 and a half months to vaccinate a single person.

And with around 10 flights arriving in Syd each day from the USA alone, it was never going to work. It was a naive approach that was largely pushed by state premiers. Hopefully the NSW system works and this is defeated in a few days.

 

[hb13]

See this massive reaction to the TINY amount of cases in northern beaches, is why the 'we dont really need the vaccine here' attitude is not feasible.

the entire approach has been built around a covid free country with any deviation resulting in massive reactions, thats why we shouldnt be at the back of the queue and waiting another 3 and a half months to vaccinate a single person.

Completely agree. Everytime there is one or even two or three cases, there is a threat of border closures, flights cancelled - it's just a mess.

With this attitude, Australia will effectively stay closed for business till 2024 or 2025.

 

[Pom-DownUnder]

Australia is NOT 9 months into this crisis, Australia is in the first few weeks of this crisis, and we have been for months, it never bloomed, thats a strategy that only works IF YOU GET A VACCINE.

de-prioritising that and "ohhhh we dont really need it badly" is short sighted and many family will now not see their relatives at christmas because of what? 4 people? waiting till March is idiocy, but whats the bigger picture for that how long till that is actually a USEFUL percentage of people ? Sept ? longer ?

 

[MEL_Traveller]

See this massive reaction to the TINY amount of cases in northern beaches, is why the 'we dont really need the vaccine here' attitude is not feasible.

the entire approach has been built around a covid free country with any deviation resulting in massive reactions, thats why we shouldnt be at the back of the queue and waiting another 3 and a half months to vaccinate a single person.

It has to be. Some of the people will potentially work in aged care, our hospitals, or live with the elderly.

 

[drron]

Australia is NOT 9 months into this crisis, Australia is in the first few weeks of this crisis, and we have been for months, it never bloomed, thats a strategy that only works IF YOU GET A VACCINE.

de-prioritising that and "ohhhh we dont really need it badly" is short sighted and many family will now not see their relatives at christmas because of what? 4 people? waiting till March is idiocy, but whats the bigger picture for that how long till that is actually a USEFUL percentage of people ? Sept ? longer ?

So you are happy if Australia takes some of the vaccines being used in the northern hemisphere for our use.
The supply is limited.The Pfizer vaccine is only scheduled to deliver 100 million doses to the USA by the end of March 2021.That is just over 16% of the US population can be vaccinated.That is not going to cover all the high risk groups there.

Trump admin negotiating with Pfizer for tens of millions more vaccines

According to a report in The New York Wednesday, the U.S. only has ordered 100 million doses from Pfizer before the end of March 2021.

www.dailymail.co.uk

So just so some Australians can travel overseas we should take no responsibility for the extra people in the northern hemisphere who will catch the C19 virus ultimately leading to the deaths of many more people and incapacitation for others.
Sorry but I want no part of that strategy.

 

[Pom-DownUnder]

So you are happy if Australia takes some of the vaccines being used in the northern hemisphere for our use.
The supply is limited.The Pfizer vaccine is only scheduled to deliver 100 million doses to the USA by the end of March 2021.That is just over 16% of the US population can be vaccinated.That is not going to cover all the high risk groups there.

Trump admin negotiating with Pfizer for tens of millions more vaccines

According to a report in The New York Wednesday, the U.S. only has ordered 100 million doses from Pfizer before the end of March 2021.

www.dailymail.co.uk

So just so some Australians can travel overseas we should take no responsibility for the extra people in the northern hemisphere who will catch the C19 virus ultimately leading to the deaths of many more people and incapacitation for others.
Sorry but I want no part of that strategy.

I dont think you read my post correctly.

I am not saying this in regard to overseas travel, i'm saying this as in the wet blanket over everything approach we have chosen as our mast to tie things to will mean we are going to be locking down, shutting down, and overreacting to tiny outbreaks like this long after the world is done with it.

Am i saying go and rip it from the clutches of 90 year olds in the usa? not at all. but we are producing the oxford one here, how many millions do you think will have it while it sits in a fridge in melbourne before March ?

 

[N860CR]

I dont think you read my post correctly.

I am not saying this in regard to overseas travel, i'm saying this as in the wet blanket over everything approach we have chosen as our mast to tie things to will mean we are going to be locking down, shutting down, and overreacting to tiny outbreaks like this long after the world is done with it.

Am i saying go and rip it from the clutches of 90 year olds in the usa? not at all. but we are producing the oxford one here, how many millions do you think will have it while it sits in a fridge in melbourne before March ?

I think you make a good point. Australia made a decision early that our only way out of this was a vaccine. That point has been argued before, however the simple fact is that Australia has no plan to move forward without a vaccine. The same seems to apply to New Zealand (and no doubt a few others)

That plan is all well and good, but we cannot be delaying vaccines any longer than we have to. The current “outbreak” (and I don’t like using that term) clearly proves that we can’t even operate as a single country at the moment, so I would hope this serves to put a bit of a hurry up on the process.

 

[Pom-DownUnder]

I think you make a good point. Australia made a decision early that our only way out of this was a vaccine. That point has been argued before, however the simple fact is that Australia has no plan to move forward without a vaccine. The same seems to apply to New Zealand (and no doubt a few others)

That plan is all well and good, but we cannot be delaying vaccines any longer than we have to. The current “outbreak” (and I don’t like using that term) clearly proves that we can’t even operate as a single country at the moment, so I would hope this serves to put a bit of a hurry up on the process.

Exactly, in 6 months when everyone on this board will be lined up to get stabbed i dont imagine there will be anyone that says 'oh no, please can you send mine to the congo instead'

 

[drron]

But the vaccines now being used have only an Emergency use declaration.None have received full licensing for use.
There is an emergency in the northern hemisphere.There is none here.
So the science says we should wait.

 

[Pom-DownUnder]

But the vaccines now being used have only an Emergency use declaration.None have received full licensing for use.
There is an emergency in the northern hemisphere.There is none here.
So the science says we should wait.

you think that is going to change by March ?

 

[james4321]

you think that is going to change by March ?

You think we are going to have an emergency situation by March?

 

[drron]

They are hoping to have full authorisation for the Pfizer vaccine in the USA by the end of January.If that happens Australia should follow soon after.
The Oxford vaccine will be a little later.
Australia's share of the Pfizer vaccine is only scheduled to start being delivered at the end of March 2021.The 10 million doses are spread out until the end of 2021.

 

[RAM]

And with around 10 flights arriving in Syd each day from the USA alone, it was never going to work. It was a naive approach that was largely pushed by state premiers. Hopefully the NSW system works and this is defeated in a few days.

The numbers for flights per day from the US into Sydney are a little optimistic. Australia-wide there are less than 9 flights arriving each day from the US, of which on average 3 are passenger flights. US freight flights have been spread between Brisbane, Melbourne & Sydney.

The bulk of flights from the US into Sydney each day (since June) have been operated by the freight companies (Fed Ex, UPS, Q Freight, ANZ Freight, Kalitta Air, American Freight). By far the most are operated by FedEx and have a very curious routing.

They fly from the US to Sydney and then on to China - none return directly from Sydney to the US. Does make me wonder what they're carrying to China given all the trade issues? Perhaps the more recent stats (much delayed for no stated reason) may reveal a change.

 

[RAM]

They are hoping to have full authorisation for the Pfizer vaccine in the USA by the end of January.If that happens Australia should follow soon after.
The Oxford vaccine will be a little later.
Australia's share of the Pfizer vaccine is only scheduled to start being delivered at the end of March 2021.The 10 million doses are spread out until the end of 2021.

and the Astra Zeneca/Oxford vaccine has some serious methodological & quality control issues to be dealt with - which should make the earliest it is seen in use some time in late 2021.

Their selection protocol excluded anyone over the age of 55, under 18, pregnant or may possibly fall pregnant along with a number of other restrictions such as no underlying medical conditions. Their coverage of ethnicities was also very restricted. Not anything like the general population.

So, it is an 'apples with oranges' comparison to talk about it in the same way as the Pfizer or Moderna vaccines which did not have those restrictions. IIRC Pfizer has around 45% of the trial participants over the age of 55.

As drron has pointed out a number of times - the approvals granted are as an 'emergency' measure and can be rescinded if any new information makes the cost vs benefit trade-off less attractive.

Something which the FDA's latest approval (Moderna's vaccine) goes to some length to spell out.

The drug companies have zero legal liability, unless proven to have knowingly withheld relevant adverse information, if it turns out that their vaccine has major adverse medium or long term side effects.

Looked on in this light, whether they realise it or not, the priority vaccine volunteers/recipients are effectively now part of a loose Phase 3 trial - only without regular monitoring by the drug companies.

 

[Pom-DownUnder]

Their selection protocol excluded anyone over the age of 55, under 18, pregnant or may possibly fall pregnant along with a number of other restrictions such as no underlying medical conditions. Their coverage of ethnicities was also very restricted. Not anything like the general population.

Sorry RAM you are speaking with absolute certainty and you are incorrect, the people in that age group were the ones that were accidentally given a different dose which is now gaining further examination, the people that were selected were over 18, note: all the covid vaccine trails have excluded people under 18 due to consent and low risk in that age group.

The drug companies may have 'zero' liability in terms of being taken to court but that is not zero liability, these are multi-million/billion dollar entities with vast amounts of shareholders that employee thousands of people. If their vaccines are found to be lethal all that considerable value which the higher ups will be heavily invested in, will disappear as will jobs etc, just because bob the plumber cant sue them doesn't mean no consequence.

you really make it sound a great deal MORE sinister than it is

incase you need it: Phase 3 Clinical Testing in the U.S. of AstraZeneca COVID-19 Vaccine Candidate Begins

Post automatically merged: Dec 18, 2020

For anyone wanting very reasoned and educated vaccine analysis that will give some concerns but not enough to not pull the trigger on it (imo):

 

[N860CR]

The numbers for flights per day from the US into Sydney are a little optimistic. Australia-wide there are less than 9 flights arriving each day from the US, of which on average 3 are passenger flights. US freight flights have been spread between Brisbane, Melbourne & Sydney.

Generally seeing 2 UA, 1 AA and 1 DL plus the additional freighters (several from the continental US and others Hawaii)

 

[hb13]

I see some good discussion about vaccines, but I think what we really need, and I still can't believe that this has not happened, is a system to allow travel to return to some form of normalcy before the vaccine is available to everyone.

Even if the vaccine is approved in Feb in Australia, most people won't have access till after mid-year. Secondly, and most importantly, even if everyone is vaccinated, this doesn't mean there will be no "outbreaks". We have no idea how the vaccine works in a mass setting and we won't know that till probably mid-2021 at best. So are we just going to go back and forth with border closures? It is an absolute joke. Because a vaccine isn't a magic bullet. How long will this go on for??

We need vaccines ASAP in my opinion, however, that will take probably another year before they are approved and everyone has them. Are we going to keep the travel and aviation industry basically on tenterhooks for the next 12 - 18 months?

 

[MEL_Traveller]

I see some good discussion about vaccines, but I think what we really need, and I still can't believe that this has not happened, is a system to allow travel to return to some form of normalcy before the vaccine is available to everyone.

Even if the vaccine is approved in Feb in Australia, most people won't have access till after mid-year. Secondly, and most importantly, even if everyone is vaccinated, this doesn't mean there will be no "outbreaks". We have no idea how the vaccine works in a mass setting and we won't know that till probably mid-2021 at best. So are we just going to go back and forth with border closures? It is an absolute joke. Because a vaccine isn't a magic bullet. How long will this go on for??

We need vaccines ASAP in my opinion, however, that will take probably another year before they are approved and everyone has them. Are we going to keep the travel and aviation industry basically on tenterhooks for the next 12 - 18 months?

They were saying tonight the Moderna vaccine, just approved for emergency use, has a 100% success in reducing the severity of covid symptoms. I think that's a key outcome. At the moment an outbreak can spread to aged care or other vulnerable people. Take away that threat and we're almost there I think. I don't think outbreaks will be such a big issue if we can be sure that those we need to protect will be protected.

Of course if the vaccine doesn't work to reduce symptoms, our outbreaks are going to have to be contained.

 

[hb13]

They were saying tonight the Moderna vaccine, just approved for emergency use, has a 100% success in reducing the severity of covid symptoms. I think that's a key outcome. At the moment an outbreak can spread to aged care or other vulnerable people. Take away that threat and we're almost there I think. I don't think outbreaks will be such a big issue if we can be sure that those we need to protect will be protected.

Of course if the vaccine doesn't work to reduce symptoms, our outbreaks are going to have to be contained.

I agree with everything you have said - however, the question remains: when will we know the answers to all these points? Because every scientist and doctor I have seen commentate on this, and I'm sure most of us here will agree - it won't be till late 2021 when we can know the answers.

The vaccines appear to have great results in trials. But how will they work at mass? How will they work in a setting where all the trial participants aren't being assessed on a weekly basis? How long does the vaccine protect you for? People need two doses 3 weeks apart - what happens if you get a dose and two weeks later you get sick or infected? Are we going to keep people who have had the first dose isolated for 3 weeks?

My point is that if we are just going to sit and wait, the aviation and travel industry will continue to suffer. We need to stop relying on the vaccine and implement a strategy to get things moving till that happens. Hopefully once the global population has been vaccinated fully in a couple of years, we won't need those measures.