Predictions of when international flights may resume/bans lifted

[Pom-DownUnder]

I agree with everything you have said - however, the question remains: when will we know the answers to all these points? Because every scientist and doctor I have seen commentate on this, and I'm sure most of us here will agree - it won't be till late 2021 when we can know the answers.

The vaccines appear to have great results in trials. But how will they work at mass? How will they work in a setting where all the trial participants aren't being assessed on a weekly basis? How long does the vaccine protect you for? People need two doses 3 weeks apart - what happens if you get a dose and two weeks later you get sick or infected? Are we going to keep people who have had the first dose isolated for 3 weeks?

My point is that if we are just going to sit and wait, the aviation and travel industry will continue to suffer. We need to stop relying on the vaccine and implement a strategy to get things moving till that happens. Hopefully once the global population has been vaccinated fully in a couple of years, we won't need those measures.

exactly, when does the common sense and 'if it saves one life' mentality take a back seat to common sense?

when all the over 70s are vaccinated?
the over 65s?
the over 60s?
the over 55s?
the over 50s?
Everyone and their pets and anyone they skype with?

 

[HappyFlyerFamily]

I agree with everything you have said - however, the question remains: when will we know the answers to all these points? Because every scientist and doctor I have seen commentate on this, and I'm sure most of us here will agree - it won't be till late 2021 when we can know the answers.

The vaccines appear to have great results in trials. But how will they work at mass? How will they work in a setting where all the trial participants aren't being assessed on a weekly basis? How long does the vaccine protect you for? People need two doses 3 weeks apart - what happens if you get a dose and two weeks later you get sick or infected? Are we going to keep people who have had the first dose isolated for 3 weeks?

My point is that if we are just going to sit and wait, the aviation and travel industry will continue to suffer. We need to stop relying on the vaccine and implement a strategy to get things moving till that happens. Hopefully once the global population has been vaccinated fully in a couple of years, we won't need those measures.

Yes, we will be sitting and waiting - to see how emergency use works out, to see whether it reduces spread or otherwise, to see if it reduces severity, to see how it affect vulnerable elderly and very young, to see what unexpected side effects occur. No substitute for time unfortunately.

 

[hb13]

Yes, we will be sitting and waiting - to see how emergency use works out, to see whether it reduces spread or otherwise, to see if it reduces severity, to see how it affect vulnerable elderly and very young, to see what unexpected side effects occur. No substitute for time unfortunately.

You have missed my point. It is clear all of that will take time. And that is fine.

My point is that we should not be relying on the vaccines like they are the be all end all. What if we wait and realise that the vaccines don't kill off the virus - what next? We have quarantine for another 5 or 6 years?

 

[HappyFlyerFamily]

You have missed my point. It is clear all of that will take time. And that is fine.

My point is that we should not be relying on the vaccines like they are the be all end all. What if we wait and realise that the vaccines don't kill off the virus - what next? We have quarantine for another 5 or 6 years?

Likely, yes.

 

[MEL_Traveller]

You have missed my point. It is clear all of that will take time. And that is fine.

My point is that we should not be relying on the vaccines like they are the be all end all. What if we wait and realise that the vaccines don't kill off the virus - what next? We have quarantine for another 5 or 6 years?

At the moment a vaccine is the best solution. And we will only have to wait another six months or so. If it doesn't work, the alternative is pretty grim. Without a vaccine we're going to either be looking at continued quarantine, or a two-tiered system locking down the elderly, vulnerable, and anyone providing care to them. That's probably also not sustainable for any long period of time.

 

[Princess Fiona]

At the moment a vaccine is the best solution. And we will only have to wait another six months or so. If it doesn't work, the alternative is pretty grim. Without a vaccine we're going to either be looking at continued quarantine, or a two-tiered system locking down the elderly, vulnerable, and anyone providing care to them. That's probably also not sustainable for any long period of time.

I don’t want to be locked down long term as someone who regularly cares for vulnerable elderly patients. Nor do my family who would also need to be factored into that two-tier system.

 

[hb13]

At the moment a vaccine is the best solution. And we will only have to wait another six months or so. If it doesn't work, the alternative is pretty grim. Without a vaccine we're going to either be looking at continued quarantine, or a two-tiered system locking down the elderly, vulnerable, and anyone providing care to them. That's probably also not sustainable for any long period of time.

Again, I agree with you. The vaccine appears to be the best solution. But as you correctly say, the alternatives are grim and locking down vulnerable people and having two-week long quarantines for years is not sustainable.

That's my whole point. Why are we not putting systems into place now for managing and living with this virus??

What happens if vaccines are not successful? We would have waited a year or more to figure that out - then does Australia stay closed?? Go and ask anyone who is over the age of 80 or anyone who has diabetes - do they want to be 'shielded' and living in fear for the next 5 years? Ask the 40k Aussies abroad - do they want to wait till 2022 or 2023 before they get back home?

The government hasn't even considered mass tasting. Or home quarantine with some sort of tracking device. Or a testing regiment for travellers alongside reduced quarantine. This is on top of which they say "we'll just sit back wand watch what happens with vaccines before we even make a move". This is the reality we are facing.

 

[HappyFlyerFamily]

Again, I agree with you. The vaccine appears to be the best solution. But as you correctly say, the alternatives are grim and locking down vulnerable people and having two-week long quarantines for years is not sustainable.

That's my whole point. Why are we not putting systems into place now for managing and living with this virus??

...

The government hasn't even considered mass tasting. Or home quarantine with some sort of tracking device. Or a testing regiment for travellers alongside reduced quarantine. This is on top of which they say "we'll just sit back wand watch what happens with vaccines before we even make a move". This is the reality we are facing.

Each of those have flaws

Pre-test together with reduced quarantine doesn’t work - there’s have been a few examples in Australia and NZ

Home quarantine with trackers doesn’t stop visitors

Mass testing of 25 million is not feasible in one day/week. We probably only have facility to process maybe 100,000 PCR tests.

 

[hb13]

Each of those have flaws

Pre-test together with reduced quarantine doesn’t work - there’s have been a few examples in Australia and NZ

Home quarantine with trackers doesn’t stop visitors

Mass testing of 25 million is not feasible in one day/week. We probably only have facility to process maybe 100,000 PCR tests.

Nothing is 100% risk free. We can see the debacle that has occurred with flight crew recently, the hotel quarantine issues in Melbourne earlier in the year and also the failed track and trace system in Melbourne as well.

Also, testing before taking the flight, the day passengers arrive and 5 - 7 days (all spent in hotel quarantine) later can solve this issue of stranded Australians overseas.

At this rate, Australia will require 2 week hotel quarantine for the next 2 - 3 years.

 

[Kiwi_Flyer]

NZ government had apparently approved a budget for quarantine and other border measures through to June 2022.

 

[Must...Fly!]

Nothing is 100% risk free. We can see the debacle that has occurred with flight crew recently, the hotel quarantine issues in Melbourne earlier in the year and also the failed track and trace system in Melbourne as well.

Also, testing before taking the flight, the day passengers arrive and 5 - 7 days (all spent in hotel quarantine) later can solve this issue of stranded Australians overseas.

At this rate, Australia will require 2 week hotel quarantine for the next 2 - 3 years.

We are in an enviable position being almost virus free as a nation.

But there is a cost.

 

[RAM]

Generally seeing 2 UA, 1 AA and 1 DL plus the additional freighters (several from the continental US and others Hawaii)

You certainly are seeing those planes regularly, but the airlines are making life tough for you to know what's in the planes you see as they're now operating pax aircraft for pure cargo flights. At one stage earlier this year UA was operating more pax aircraft as pure cargo then they were operating pax flights.

The lastest figures from BITRE are up to 30 Sept. The October figures are overdue.

Delta had 13 flights to Australia in Sept, & although American flew into Sydney nearly every day - they were purely cargo carrying, zero passengers.

International airline activity

Summary Time series

www.bitre.gov.au

It seems incorrect, but BITRE's response is that's the way it has been done for decades, to include pure freight flights together with passenger flights in a count of airline passenger flights etc.

It does complicate using the output they produce somewhat. Now with CV, its become even more difficult.

For example - United operates both passenger & freight only flights using passenger aircraft, at first it seems as if UA operated planes that could only carry 139 passengers/flight (10,145 / 73 flights).

United Cargo carries out 5,000th cargo-only PAX flight - Air Cargo News

United Cargo has carried out five thousand cargo-only flights using passenger aircraft. The carrier has been operating the flights since March 19, using

www.aircargonews.net

So whilst in Sept BITRE shows United operated 73 'passenger' flights - actual passenger carrying flights around 40 inbound and 39 outbound. The other 33 flights were cargo using pax aircraft such as UA 2795 a pax B787-9 going from Sydney to LA but LA to Auckland to Sydney for the inbound journey, or UA 2812 which is a pure SYD/LAX cargo service also by B787-9 pax aircraft. Adjusting for actual passenger carrying flights yields 250+ capacity/flight = UA B787-9.

Yet, other cargo only operators such as FedEx, Polar Air Cargo etc - also get counted in the 'passenger flight' statistics.



Surpised to see Air NZ did 4 USA-Australia freight flights.

 

[Flashback]

Covid: Ministers meet amid rising infection rates in England

The PM is "hoping to avoid" another national lockdown as millions more enter England's toughest tier.

www.bbc.co.uk

UK stocks of the vaccine run out in January with the next batch not arriving till March. If the Oxford one is approved in the meantime then that will close the gap...

It's going to be a very long process, I suspect June is the earliest I've ever have a slim chance of getting it.

 

[hb13]

Covid: Ministers meet amid rising infection rates in England

The PM is "hoping to avoid" another national lockdown as millions more enter England's toughest tier.

www.bbc.co.uk

UK stocks of the vaccine run out in January with the next batch not arriving till March. If the Oxford one is approved in the meantime then that will close the gap...

It's going to be a very long process, I suspect June is the earliest I've ever have a slim chance of getting it.

As the article states - Boris Johnson says he's "hoping to avoid another lockdown" - however, this is all but imminent now. There is a 5 day relaxation period of restrictions here in the UK beginning the 23rd - which in my opinion is just crazy and frankly criminal. The new cases are at near all-time highs and deaths averaging 500-600 a day. A 5 day period for people to effectively do as they please will undoubtedly mean a lockdown in January. There simply won't be way to avoid it unless the 5-day relation period is cancelled - something Boris Johnson is under immense pressure to do.

I don't see the Oxford/AZD vaccine being approved this year. The government has been crowing about how 'great' Oxford is and how great the medical and health system is here, which has frankly been nauseating. The UK has among the worse death rates here and the government is an absolute shambles. Why the UK only ordered Moderna vaccines to arrive in April is just beyond me. It has been one major stuff up after another here by the UK government.

 

[Flashback]

As the article states - Boris Johnson says he's "hoping to avoid another lockdown" - however, this is all but imminent now. There is a 5 day relaxation period of restrictions here in the UK beginning the 23rd - which in my opinion is just crazy and frankly criminal. The new cases are at near all-time highs and deaths averaging 500-600 a day. A 5 day period for people to effectively do as they please will undoubtedly mean a lockdown in January. There simply won't be way to avoid it unless the 5-day relation period is cancelled - something Boris Johnson is under immense pressure to do.

I don't see the Oxford/AZD vaccine being approved this year. The government has been crowing about how 'great' Oxford is and how great the medical and health system is here, which has frankly been nauseating. The UK has among the worse death rates here and the government is an absolute shambles. Why the UK only ordered Moderna vaccines to arrive in April is just beyond me. It has been one major stuff up after another here by the UK government.

Gone now - new Tier 4 in place, as of midnight tonight. Christmas bubble cancelled for us in London and the South East; and for the rest of England, reduced to just Christmas day (so 1 day instead of 5). Grr.

 

[oznflfan]

'NO INTERNATIONAL TRAVEL FOR US AUSSIES IN 2021. Australian government and CHO's want to study:

A) how many citizens we can get vaccinated by end of 2021, if any side effects from them in 2021, actual protection from COVID moot point as hardly any here.
B) Research by smarty pants scientists during 2021 as to efficacy and protection, as well as transmission protection.
C) How other countries COVID infections have reduced. We also can't expect places like USA, UK, Brazil to go to NIL. They will have cases probably forever.

Scomo gonna have to grow a pair and take a risk. Getting proof \of length of immunity via vaccine may take 5 years to prove up.

Using QFF points and booking QF9 in 7 months time (353 days prior) for take-off Sunday 3rd July 2022 to London. UK, France, Germany, Poland, 3 - 5 weeks depending on a few things. **NOTE - QF9 leaves Perth, assuming Dictator McGowan unlock's Perth Airport gates by then.

I reckon best case scenario for doing this trip (if I am vaccinated) would be by beginning of 2022, worst case by end of 2022.

My guess is 75% chance for this trip to go ahead. Thinking I may still need at least 7 days home quarantine and a couple of tests on return even if vaccinated.

 

[Flashback]

Speaking to a friend in the know, it's unlikely they'll even get through all the initial target vulnerable groups (split into 9 groups) by the end of June, so if that gives an idea of the timeframe for a country who has already started and has lots of doses lined up.......

 

[hb13]

'NO INTERNATIONAL TRAVEL FOR US AUSSIES IN 2021. Australian government and CHO's want to study:

A) how many citizens we can get vaccinated by end of 2021, if any side effects from them in 2021, actual protection from COVID moot point as hardly any here.
B) Research by smarty pants scientists during 2021 as to efficacy and protection, as well as transmission protection.
C) How other countries COVID infections have reduced. We also can't expect places like USA, UK, Brazil to go to NIL. They will have cases probably forever.

Scomo gonna have to grow a pair and take a risk. Getting proof \of length of immunity via vaccine may take 5 years to prove up.

Using QFF points and booking QF9 in 7 months time (353 days prior) for take-off Sunday 3rd July 2022 to London. UK, France, Germany, Poland, 3 - 5 weeks depending on a few things. **NOTE - QF9 leaves Perth, assuming Dictator McGowan unlock's Perth Airport gates by then.

I reckon best case scenario for doing this trip (if I am vaccinated) would be by beginning of 2022, worst case by end of 2022.

My guess is 75% chance for this trip to go ahead. Thinking I may still need at least 7 days home quarantine and a couple of tests on return even if vaccinated.

I would agree with 75% chance of this trap happening (seeing as it is July 2022).

Quarantine being removed from being arriving into Australia will most likely run till mid-2022.

I, along with 16 million here in London and the SE of England are now facing months of Tier 4 restrictions due to the new strain of the virus. For me it feels like it's a brand new virus, which has effectively killed 2021. Lockdowns and restrictions are tighter than ever and who knows what the consequences are.

A really bad, depressing time, where the utterly incompetent government has blood on its hands. The UK has one of the highest death rates in the world, infection rate, mental illness is raging, businesses are failing by the day, unemployment is climbing and the economy has probably been hit harder than any other country.

 

[Flashback]

I would agree with 75% chance of this trap happening (seeing as it is July 2022).

Quarantine being removed from being arriving into Australia will most likely run till mid-2022.

I, along with 16 million here in London and the SE of England are now facing months of Tier 4 restrictions due to the new strain of the virus. For me it feels like it's a brand new virus, which has effectively killed 2021. Lockdowns and restrictions are tighter than ever and who knows what the consequences are.

A really bad, depressing time, where the utterly incompetent government has blood on its hands. The UK has one of the highest death rates in the world, infection rate, mental illness is raging, businesses are failing by the day, unemployment is climbing and the economy has probably been hit harder than any other country.

I wouldn't say tighter than ever ..... places of worship are still open. Ridiculous.

 

[hb13]

I wouldn't say tighter than ever ..... places of worship are still open. Ridiculous.

Agreed - literally makes no sense whatsoever.