Predictions of when international flights may resume/bans lifted

[RAM]

$559,833,000,000 collected in taxation in 2019 financial year.

Tourism spends more overseas than it does at home ... this would indicate its important to your population.

The population that provides the above figure in tax revenue every year.

Prioritise it.

(on the net loss for tourism I would raise the counter point of net profit from net migration, which has also been stopped).

Shoot us up with vaccine and get out of the way of the borders.

Actually there is no 'Net profit from net migration' for Australia as a whole. A study (at a guess around 5 years ago) found that the area that made money were also the largest industry donors to Australian political parties aka the building/construction industry.

Overall it found that over a ten year period through to 2013 I think it was that overall there was a net cost due to the lack of spending on infrastructure which saw the increased population causing annual costs > $10 billion/year in additional congestion due to lack of public transport spending Australia-wide dating back some decades for Australia as a whole vs the Govt support for toll roads which research since the 1969s repeatedly shows lead to greater congestion within 3-4 years due to induced demand.

It ran through every facet of the economy such as education where virtually all states & territories saw class size increases & educational outcomes decrease, police/fire/ambulances per 100,000 population fell around 20% etc etc.

For some reason did not get much publicity.

Given the drop in migration arrivals - the largest donor group will be agitating very strongly for the border to be open soon & people to fill the high-rise units yesterday. ( A couple of detailed articles out in the last few weeks, one by Michael West & another by the Center for public integrity)

In one stretch near UNSW a rezoning from 4-6 storeys to up to 20 storeys (rushed through before Xmas 2019) has seen 14 'international student' towers announced for around 7,000 rooms in the last 10 months. 3 on sites by one NSW property developer who made 7 donations to Federal ALP & Liberals in the months leading up to the spot rezoning requests. All legal. Not a bad return.

Back OT - the growing list of A380 retirements, scrappings or long term storage (Lufthansa now sent remaining 7 or 8 A380s to scrapping facility though these ones are deemed potentially long term storage (there are 6 other Lufthansa A380s ahead of them) - airlines don't appear to be too optimistic.

 

[Pom-DownUnder]

Actually there is no 'Net profit from net migration' for Australia as a whole. A study (at a guess around 5 years ago) found that the area that made money were also the largest industry donors to Australian political parties aka the building/construction industry.

Overall it found that over a ten year period through to 2013 I think it was that overall there was a net cost due to the lack of spending on infrastructure which saw the increased population causing annual costs > $10 billion/year in additional congestion due to lack of public transport spending Australia-wide dating back some decades for Australia as a whole vs the Govt support for toll roads which research since the 1969s repeatedly shows lead to greater congestion within 3-4 years due to induced demand.

It ran through every facet of the economy such as education where virtually all states & territories saw class size increases & educational outcomes decrease, police/fire/ambulances per 100,000 population fell around 20% etc etc.

For some reason did not get much publicity.

Given the drop in migration arrivals - the largest donor group will be agitating very strongly for the border to be open soon & people to fill the high-rise units yesterday. ( A couple of detailed articles out in the last few weeks, one by Michael West & another by the Center for public integrity)

In one stretch near UNSW a rezoning from 4-6 storeys to up to 20 storeys (rushed through before Xmas 2019) has seen 14 'international student' towers announced for around 7,000 rooms in the last 10 months. 3 on sites by one NSW property developer who made 7 donations to Federal ALP & Liberals in the months leading up to the spot rezoning requests. All legal. Not a bad return.

Back OT - the growing list of A380 retirements, scrappings or long term storage (Lufthansa now sent remaining 7 or 8 A380s to scrapping facility though these ones are deemed potentially long term storage (there are 6 other Lufthansa A380s ahead of them) - airlines don't appear to be too optimistic.

I think its twofold honestly

1. when someone emigrates they tend to move the vast majority of their equity with them
2. if they work they add in tax dollars / gst / interest etc, if they dont work (alot of international students) then its a funnel of money coming in, especially the middle class chinese wanting to buy a good education for their kids often fund their housing / lifestyle here.

Post automatically merged: Jan 27, 2021

Perhaps you'd be better off getting your views progressed in the UK. Boris would no doubt go along....

passive aggressive much orrrrrr ?

 

[hb13]

Back OT - the growing list of A380 retirements, scrappings or long term storage (Lufthansa now sent remaining 7 or 8 A380s to scrapping facility though these ones are deemed potentially long term storage (there are 6 other Lufthansa A380s ahead of them) - airlines don't appear to be too optimistic.

Yeh it seems like the most of the airlines, apart from EK and maybe BA, believe that travel won't return to previous levels for a very long time. BA has actually updated its schedule to show its A380s returning from 28th March - but I think the chance of this happening is slim to none.

The EK chief thinks travel will return to 2019 levels by 2022; I wish he was right, but I think he's about 10-15 years off unfortunately.

 

[PineappleSkip]

Has anyone seen or know where to look to get an idea of the various State's regional train service use over 2020?

Not authoritative, just anecdotal feedback and attempted booking experience, but intercity train travel is hard to get seats on, because of pretty severe limitations created by social distancing rules. Saw a tilt train (one which I wasn't able to book because no seats) pull out of Miriam Vale almost empty.

 

[MEL_Traveller]

Later this year I would see more exemptions for reasons such as compassionate, relocation, work, business and the like.

I hope they come up with some fair rules. Tough call to balance a holiday for frontline workers... nurses and paramedics... against those wanting to go on 'business'. How do we confirm the bona fides of business travellers, that it is genuine, and that it will bring benefits to Australia? Today it was reported that thousands of potentially fictitious employees - spouses, dead people, in gaol, or living overseas - have been registered by businesses for the purpose of obtaining jobkeeper

 

[Pushka]

I hope they come up with some fair rules. Tough call to balance a holiday for frontline workers... nurses and paramedics... against those wanting to go on 'business'. How do we confirm the bona fides of business travellers, that it is genuine, and that it will bring benefits to Australia? Today it was reported that thousands of potentially fictitious employees - spouses, dead people, in gaol, or living overseas - have been registered by businesses for the purpose of obtaining jobkeeper

Business travel would need diaries of events and documentation from overseas agencies etc.

Our business claimed jobkeeper and with STP I don’t see how fictitious employees could happen.

 

[MEL_Traveller]

Business travel would need diaries of events and documentation from overseas agencies etc.

Our business claimed jobkeeper and with STP I don’t see how fictitious employees could happen.

Dunno

Reported by ABC news that the ATO is investigating 6000 fictitious claims... hopefully not just the tip of the iceberg! i can see businesses who do that all of a sudden claiming ‘work trips’ overseas which will be nothing more than a holiday

 

[drron]

From the ABC who have been caught for the second time underpaying staff.

 

[Pom-DownUnder]

Business travel would need diaries of events and documentation from overseas agencies etc.

Our business claimed jobkeeper and with STP I don’t see how fictitious employees could happen.

STP was used as a starting point and an accumulator of records but could easily be overridden in discussion with the ATO

 

[Flashback]

Don't expect to be going to the EU anytime, it's all kicking off here. Germany blocking flights to some countries, France close enough to shutting down.

They were even talking about closing the border between NI and ROI, but seem to have backtracked now.

'Welcome news': relief as EU backtracks on NI Covid vaccine move

Irish foreign minister warns Northern Ireland protocol ‘not something to be tampered with lightly’

www.theguardian.com

The odds on there being a huge mutation of this virus out there that they haven’t announced is very high. What's happening with the vaccine and lots of EU countries putting up their own internal (even in Schengen) borders must mean there's an announcement coming......

 

[oznflfan]

My Prediction on this Prediction thread, I Predict not much action on this thread as by now we know there will be no decisions or hints made until end of the year.

*Need to get us vaccinated, best case by end of October, but probably longer.
*Scientists to provide data on infections, efficacy and transmiossion of virus oversea's (useless here as we are pretty much NIL every day). This will dribble in from mid to end of the year.
*Allow a bit of to and fro from powers that be, and some sort of oversea's travel will be allowed March 2022, exactly two years closed borders.

 

[hb13]

My Prediction on this Prediction thread, I Predict not much action on this thread as by now we know there will be no decisions or hints made until end of the year.

*Need to get us vaccinated, best case by end of October, but probably longer.
*Scientists to provide data on infections, efficacy and transmiossion of virus oversea's (useless here as we are pretty much NIL every day). This will dribble in from mid to end of the year.
*Allow a bit of to and fro from powers that be, and some sort of oversea's travel will be allowed March 2022, exactly two years closed borders.

Agreed, this is a prediction thread, and my prediction is travel out of Aus is almost guaranteed to not happen this year. I would say the possibility of an Aus-NZ bubble sometime in Q3/Q4 is a 50/50 chance. Anything else I would say is slim to none at the very best.

Just to explain my reasoning - the Sth Africa strain has now made its way to many countries including the UK, Europe, the US and UAE - those are the ones we know for sure. The current vaccines from Pfizer and Moderna are less effective against these strains: As Virus Grows Stealthier, Vaccine Makers Reconsider Battle Plans

Scientists and doctors are more worried now, and since they hold all the power today, it seems like we are almost back at square one.

I can tell you here in the UK many travel analysts are saying travel may be done for 2021, particularly with the new hotel quarantine coming into place.

It's very depressing because it seems like this virus is winning the race again, just when we were all super excited about the vaccines produced only 2-3 months ago.

 

[MEL_Traveller]

It's very depressing because it seems like this virus is winning the race again, just when we were all super excited about the vaccines produced only 2-3 months ago.

I don't know if we have enough facts to support this view? The recent analysis says the vaccines may be slightly less effective against the South African strain. 'Slightly'. That doesn't seem to be back to square one.

It might mean the they're starting to look at what could go into next year's booster shots though

The travel industry wants government support. On the other hand IATA wants governments to accept their vaccine passport, and for the WHO to deem vaccination as clearance to travel.

 

[N860CR]

Just to explain my reasoning - the Sth Africa strain has now made its way to many countries including the UK, Europe, the US and UAE

Daily recovery rate is now double the daily infection rate in South Africa. Infections in South Africa have significantly dropped. Yes, there are restrictions, but enforcement in the informal settlements is next to nothing.

The horrible, scary, AFRICAN strain was let loose in New Zealand, the amazing COVID safe sanctuary, and infections were insignificant.

Let’s just let this thing continue it’s course.

 

[hb13]

I don't know if we have enough facts to support this view? The recent analysis says the vaccines may be slightly less effective against the South African strain. 'Slightly'. That doesn't seem to be back to square one.

It might mean the they're starting to look at what could go into next year's booster shots though

The travel industry wants government support. On the other hand IATA wants governments to accept their vaccine passport, and for the WHO to deem vaccination as clearance to travel.

Next year's boosters? Pfizer and Moderna are working on boosters now.

And square one would put us back roughly a year. Are you saying that we will have some normalcy back in less than a year? Australian borders will be closed for another year at least to every country except for maybe a select few that have basically reached Covid-0.

I have given facts to support my prediction - which is another year of border closures around the world. So tell me what facts there are to disprove this prediction?

 

[MEL_Traveller]

Next year's boosters? Pfizer and Moderna are working on boosters now.

And square one would put us back roughly a year. Are you saying that we will have some normalcy back in less than a year? Australian borders will be closed for another year at least to every country except for maybe a select few that have basically reached Covid-0.

I have given facts to support my prediction - which is another year of border closures around the world. So tell me what facts there are to disprove this prediction?

I think 'normalcy' is different to the outright ban on Aussies leaving predicted by oznflfan. Border restrictions have to be lawfully based under the Biosecurity Act. If current predictions on the effectiveness of the vaccine hold, the ban on leaving may be difficult to sustain. Arrival may still be subject to some sort of restriction in terms of quarantine, or requiring a negative test.

 

[ayushamity]

Been hearing a lot of talk about not extending Jobkeeper past March and the federal government slamming QLD was asking for an extension(rightly so). Scomo is quite firm on not doling out free money anymore.

RIP tourism and aviation.

 

[Rembrandt]

RIP tourism and aviation.

I'm sure the federal government will provide targeted relief, they understand they will look bad if the industry goes under, especially when a federal election is due in 12~ months. The Labor party is just playing politics with this at the moment as any opposition would.

Some say the federal government are playing politics with the QLD governments request for more tourism industry support. However, the QLD government hasn't helped itself by locking out their most important domestic markets (NSW & Vic) over a few cases here and over the last few months. I don't think many have the confidence traveling to Queensland currently. We really need a sensible national approach to border closures to have any confidence with traveling interstate and keeping the tourism sector in Queensland alive.

 

[MEL_Traveller]

Been hearing a lot of talk about not extending Jobkeeper past March and the federal government slamming QLD was asking for an extension(rightly so). Scomo is quite firm on not doling out free money anymore.

RIP tourism and aviation.

This won’t be the end of aviation. Capitalism, or governments with money, suggests if there is a market, someone will fill it. Arguably the barriers to entry would be reduced under the current climate with vast numbers of planes and crew idle or returned to lessors.

Tourism? Maybe operators need to reflect on the local market and price accordingly. The Travel Guides program last week featured Uluru and the surrounding ‘triangle’. The cost of food, accommodation and tours were, for the most part, eye watering. And that included the ‘budget’ options.

My father was keen to explore Australia... do some outback NT and QLD. He saw the program and loved all the activities, but when the prices flashed up said ‘forget it’.

 

[james4321]

I'm sure the federal government will provide targeted relief, they understand they will look bad if the industry goes under, especially when a federal election is due in 12~ months. The Labor party is just playing politics with this at the moment as any opposition would.

Some say the federal government are playing politics with the QLD governments request for more tourism industry support. However, the QLD government hasn't helped itself by locking out their most important domestic markets (NSW & Vic) over a few cases here and over the last few months. I don't think many have the confidence traveling to Queensland currently. We really need a sensible national approach to border closures to have any confidence with traveling interstate and keeping the tourism sector in Queensland alive.

This issue is not just relevant in QLD. Most of the criticism is directed at AP for her call for ongoing support for aviation and tourism and while some of that is justified, surely all States must have businesses that are heavily reliant on International (not just Domestic) tourists? I am surprised that other State Premiers have not supported the call on behalf of their own States aviation and tourism businesses. So it would seem to me somewhat unfair to hold up QLD as the sole reason for the Feds to not reconsider providing assistance to those businesses - in ALL States -which rely on International tourists, and who will suffer once Jobkeeper finishes at end of March. After all the state of the International border is a Fed responsibility - not the States. So perhaps a little politicking getting in the way of good Government?