Predictions of when international flights may resume/bans lifted

[hb13]

This won’t be the end of aviation. Capitalism, or governments with money, suggests if there is a market, someone will fill it. Arguably the barriers to entry would be reduced under the current climate with vast numbers of planes and crew idle or returned to lessors.

Tourism? Maybe operators need to reflect on the local market and price accordingly. The Travel Guides program last week featured Uluru and the surrounding ‘triangle’. The cost of food, accommodation and tours were, for the most part, eye watering. And that included the ‘budget’ options.

My father was keen to explore Australia... do some outback NT and QLD. He saw the program and loved all the activities, but when the prices flashed up said ‘forget it’.

What market?

For domestic aviation sure, it exists. But the Australian border may be shut for another 18 - 24 months.

 

[Must...Fly!]

This issue is not just relevant in QLD. Most of the criticism is directed at AP for her call for ongoing support for aviation and tourism and while some of that is justified, surely all States must have businesses that are heavily reliant on International (not just Domestic) tourists? I am surprised that other State Premiers have not supported the call on behalf of their own States aviation and tourism businesses. So it would seem to me somewhat unfair to hold up QLD as the sole reason for the Feds to not reconsider providing assistance to those businesses - in ALL States -which rely on International tourists, and who will suffer once Jobkeeper finishes at end of March. After all the state of the International border is a Fed responsibility - not the States. So perhaps a little politicking getting in the way of good Government?

Or perhaps if certain state governments did not unnecessarily risk and otherwise depress confidence in interstate travelers coming for a holiday, many (all?) of these businesses that are apparently solely reliant on international tourists would have found a way to survive. I'm not saying make money like they used to, but survive without so much taxpayer support.

 

[james4321]

This won’t be the end of aviation. Capitalism, or governments with money, suggests if there is a market, someone will fill it. Arguably the barriers to entry would be reduced under the current climate with vast numbers of planes and crew idle or returned to lessors.

Tourism? Maybe operators need to reflect on the local market and price accordingly. The Travel Guides program last week featured Uluru and the surrounding ‘triangle’. The cost of food, accommodation and tours were, for the most part, eye watering. And that included the ‘budget’ options.

My father was keen to explore Australia... do some outback NT and QLD. He saw the program and loved all the activities, but when the prices flashed up said ‘forget it’.

As defined by pure economics capitalism will meet market opportunities, that is true. And in that sphere for example airlines may fall and be replaced over time - albeit at huge cost to those who invested in them. But it is much more difficult to envisage a scenario where airports would follow that pattern. While International borders are severely restricted all International Airports will be struggling and I doubt that capitalists will be able to simply step in and fill the gap. International airports are critical infrastructure, not just for tourism but for Exports and Imports, so cannot be allowed to fail. Imagine the costs that Brisbane Airport is carrying as a consequence of the huge investment (first started 8 years ago) in the second runway. And all the International Airports have vast investments in providing International services.

I agree 100% with you about market pricing, but its not restricted to QLD alone. I think that tourism operators need to get a lot more inventive to attract as many Domestic tourists as they can in order to partly fill the hole left by no International tourists, and not just simply crank up the price. As your Father's reaction shows that will only turn people off.

 

[MEL_Traveller]

What market?

For domestic aviation sure, it exists. But the Australian border may be shut for another 18 - 24 months.

International airlines are still flying here! They are limited by caps on arrivals, but they are filled with freight. I expect they are making some money, or they wouldn't fly?

If we are concerned about the survival of Aussie airlines... well I dunno what the answer is. They aren't willing to fly international passenger services at the moment - QF I understand is flying their most of their 787s around for charters and freight services to Asia and the USA. Is salt and pepper squid worth tens or hundreds of millions of dollars of government subsidy? (I might be more interested, as a taxpayer, if any government subsidy was converted to equity in the company.)

 

[MEL_Traveller]

As defined by pure economics capitalism will meet market opportunities, that is true. And in that sphere for example airlines may fall and be replaced over time - albeit at huge cost to those who invested in them. But it is much more difficult to envisage a scenario where airports would follow that pattern. While International borders are severely restricted all International Airports will be struggling and I doubt that capitalists will be able to simply step in and fill the gap. International airports are critical infrastructure, not just for tourism but for Exports and Imports, so cannot be allowed to fail. Imagine the costs that Brisbane Airport is carrying as a consequence of the huge investment (first started 8 years ago) in the second runway. And all the International Airports have vast investments in providing International services.

As a taxpayer there's little sympathy from me for big airport operators They charge exorbitant prices, and they have redesigned themselves not for the convenience of passengers, but for profit-making and retail. So my argument would be to let them sort it out themselves... either borrow money, or go bust and another operator or government takes it over.

These are big businesses with opportunity to tap expertise and capital.

 

[Must...Fly!]

As a taxpayer there's little sympathy from me for big airport operators They charge exorbitant prices, and they have redesigned themselves not for the convenience of passengers, but for profit-making and retail. So my argument would be to let them sort it out themselves... either borrow money, or go bust and another operator or government takes it over.

These are big businesses with opportunity to tap expertise and capital.

I don't disagree but the slight complication is that it's likely every member of this forum owns part of an airport through their superannuation

 

[hb13]

As a taxpayer there's little sympathy from me for big airport operators They charge exorbitant prices, and they have redesigned themselves not for the convenience of passengers, but for profit-making and retail. So my argument would be to let them sort it out themselves... either borrow money, or go bust and another operator or government takes it over.

These are big businesses with opportunity to tap expertise and capital.

So you're ok with thousands of Australians also losing jobs when these operators go bust as well as airlines, travel agents and anyone else involved with with aviation and tourism?

And just remember - the economy right now is depressed. So the majority of these people won't be able to find jobs. Also, many people don't realise that we haven't seen the financial consequences of Covid-19 yet. Once the pandemic is over (I'm not saying Covid-19 will be gone, more we will have reached a point where everyone is vaccinated and there are treatments etc), all the money that has been doled out will need to be repaid - likely meaning higher taxes, inflation etc.

 

[Pushka]

What market?

For domestic aviation sure, it exists. But the Australian border may be shut for another 18 - 24 months.

Very much doubt that time frame.

 

[hb13]

Very much doubt that time frame.

That's your opinion and that's fine. When the government shuts the border to NZ because of a single case, cases and deaths around the world are incredibly high and scientists now telling us the vaccines we have may not be effective against new strains, 18 months to me seems optimistic.

And here is one of Australia's top experts on the matter saying the same thing: Australia’s COVID restrictions to stay until mid-2022, despite vaccines

 

[Tiki]

As long as "slamming borders shut" is an option, no one will trust QLD, WA and any other trigger-happy state. I really wish the federal govt would control all the internal borders as well as the external borders. I honestly don't know what Anna can do at this point to get other Aussies here because no one trusts her. Can she sign something that says she won't close the border unless extreme circumstance like 200 cases somewhere and it is legally binding? Or maybe step down, but then who is in charge and would they be better? I guess kidnapping Gladys is out of the question?

Same with international. The major countries of the world need to come together like they did after 911 (agreed on security procedures, liquid rules, etc) and make rules that ALL countries must abide by and let international travel happen according to the rules. Examples could be like passenger must be vaccinated and have whatever the new equivalent of a yellow card will be. If tests are required, these should be readily available at the airport. I know Turkey is doing this, not sure what other countries are. Countries should have goals to be met like example 70% of population vaccinated, then only vaccinated passengers allowed to enter. No quarantine, ability to move around same as the locals do. People don't want to waste time and money in resort prisons either.

 

[oznflfan]

That's your opinion and that's fine. When the government shuts the border to NZ because of a single case, cases and deaths around the world are incredibly high and scientists now telling us the vaccines we have may not be effective against new strains, 18 months to me seems optimistic.

And here is one of Australia's top experts on the matter saying the same thing: Australia’s COVID restrictions to stay until mid-2022, despite vaccines

After a while, hopefully in next 6 months, the scare-d-cat mentality of 'mutant ebola strains' of COVID will calm down. These are first vaccines, and undoubtably pharma's will update 'recipe' ongoing and boosters.

Agree on hyperlink news item that end of northern hemispehere winter will be crux point for everything. Personally I think eurpoean summer in 2022 will be ballistic, however 2021 will be lost for most part.

Luckily for me, COVID has had pretty much no negative impact on my life, aside from purpose of this thread. For months depressed on thought of no travel, but finally accepting my fate. Really looking forward to first trip away to Melbourne for AFL Round 1 in March.

 

[kpc]

As long as "slamming borders shut" is an option, no one will trust QLD, WA and any other trigger-happy state. I really wish the federal govt would control all the internal borders as well as the external borders. I honestly don't know what Anna can do at this point to get other Aussies here because no one trusts her.

You won't find me travelling to Qld and WA (from Sydney) anytime soon for those exact reasons. Ditto SA but my elderly parents live there so may be "forced" to go there!

 

[ayushamity]

Very much doubt that time frame.

I think we would see the last extension of the travel ban to be till March 2022.

 

[oznflfan]

As long as "slamming borders shut" is an option, no one will trust QLD, WA and any other trigger-happy state. I really wish the federal govt would control all the internal borders as well as the external borders. I honestly don't know what Anna can do at this point to get other Aussies here because no one trusts her. Can she sign something that says she won't close the border unless extreme circumstance like 200 cases somewhere and it is legally binding? Or maybe step down, but then who is in charge and would they be better? I guess kidnapping Gladys is out of the question?

Same with international. The major countries of the world need to come together like they did after 911 (agreed on security procedures, liquid rules, etc) and make rules that ALL countries must abide by and let international travel happen according to the rules. Examples could be like passenger must be vaccinated and have whatever the new equivalent of a yellow card will be. If tests are required, these should be readily available at the airport. I know Turkey is doing this, not sure what other countries are. Countries should have goals to be met like example 70% of population vaccinated, then only vaccinated passengers allowed to enter. No quarantine, ability to move around same as the locals do. People don't want to waste time and money in resort prisons either.

AP did a morning TV interview with Karl Stef maybe 6 weeks ago ish, and Karl was stating his father was in Nth QLD and can he trust borders be open to visit him, and AP stated unless a massive outbreak in NSW, QLD would be open for everyone to visit. Wasn't exactly the truth hey.

 

[ayushamity]

That's your opinion and that's fine. When the government shuts the border to NZ because of a single case,

That is what the crux is. Australia is obviously going for complete elimination and as long as it is not eliminated, Australia will not open.

If that takes say till 2023, then the borders will be shut till then

 

[Pushka]

That is what the crux is. Australia is obviously going for complete elimination and as long as it is not eliminated, Australia will not open.

If that takes say till 2023, then the borders will be shut till then

The aim of the vaccine is to reduce severity of illness so that the hoped for result is that it is reduced to a flu like illness with regular boosters. Currently it’s an elimination strategy and I’d suggest as soon as Australians are immunised - late this year, then the plans for elimination are changed.

 

[MEL_Traveller]

So you're ok with thousands of Australians also losing jobs when these operators go bust as well as airlines, travel agents and anyone else involved with with aviation and tourism?

And just remember - the economy right now is depressed. So the majority of these people won't be able to find jobs. Also, many people don't realise that we haven't seen the financial consequences of Covid-19 yet. Once the pandemic is over (I'm not saying Covid-19 will be gone, more we will have reached a point where everyone is vaccinated and there are treatments etc), all the money that has been doled out will need to be repaid - likely meaning higher taxes, inflation etc.

No. I'm not ok with thousands of people losing jobs. I'm not happy with five people losing their jobs.

But that doesn't go hand in hand with saying the government needs to prop up industries that may not be sustainable. If it's not covid, how prepared are our airlines and tourism markets for any escalation in the conflict with China that could see a ban by China allowing its citizens to study or visit here?

Perhaps the answer is the government taking equity in the companies it provides assistance to? Airports, airlines, the large travel agencies?

 

[MEL_Traveller]

That is what the crux is. Australia is obviously going for complete elimination and as long as it is not eliminated, Australia will not open.

If that takes say till 2023, then the borders will be shut till then

But you have to look at the 'why'.

Why are they going for elimination? because we don't have a vaccine or other effective treatments.

Once you have those, the 'why' potentially changes significantly.

And restrictions under the Biosecurity Act need a basis to be lawful. 'Not having a vaccine' was one of the reasons for the current restrictions.

 

[ayushamity]

Currently it’s an elimination strategy and I’d suggest as soon as Australians are immunised - late this year, then the plans for elimination are changed.

There is no indication that Australia will purse a different strategy once the vaccines are rolled out

That is the common sense approach - eliminate now until everyone is protected. then open up gradually irrespective of case numbers.

But common sense and politics do not go hand in hand here

Post automatically merged: Jan 31, 2021

Once you have those, the 'why' potentially changes significantly.

You and me know that. And it makes sense.

But do our obnoxious premiers care and have that common sense ? Evidence so far suggests they do not

 

[MEL_Traveller]

There is no indication that Australia will purse a different strategy once the vaccines are rolled out

There is a hint that it will! If we have a look at the wording of the current restrictions made under the Biosecurity Act, one of them is 'no vaccine'.