Predictions of when international flights may resume/bans lifted

[focusedbear]

This sounds promising for those who wish for a bubble with HK (such as me). I hope trade considerations supersede politics

Live | Hong Kong budget: vouchers, fewer sweeteners and a lasting deficit, but outlook optimistic

Gross domestic product forecast to rise between 3.5 per cent and 5.5 per cent, and sweeteners in the form of HK$5,000 coupons to be given to residents.

www.scmp.com

 

[dajop]

This sounds promising for those who wish for a bubble with HK (such as me). I hope trade considerations supersede politics

Live | Hong Kong budget: vouchers, fewer sweeteners and a lasting deficit, but outlook optimistic

Gross domestic product forecast to rise between 3.5 per cent and 5.5 per cent, and sweeteners in the form of HK$5,000 coupons to be given to residents.

www.scmp.com

Sorry to be a bearer of bad news, butt I wouldn't bet on it. The problem will be at the Australian end. Australia are not entertaining a bubble with Singapore (even though Singapore has a "one way bubble" with Australia, like Australia does with NZ), and its new locally transmitted cases have been considerably lower than Hong Kongs (same in the last month in SG as there have been in HK in the last two days).

Of course once sufficient proportion of the population are vaccinated, that could change lots of things.

 

[focusedbear]

I'm afraid to say but you are right. The situation is downright frustrating.

 

[hb13]

I think any bubbles with anyone can be forgotten this year. Possibly likely 2022 maybe. Then maybe slowly wider international travel will begin in 2023/24.

It's clear that Australian officials will only be willing to begin to open borders once we live in a covid-free world - which is years away if ever.

 

[MEL_Traveller]

I think any bubbles with anyone can be forgotten this year. Possibly likely 2022 maybe. Then maybe slowly wider international travel will begin in 2023/24.

It's clear that Australian officials will only be willing to begin to open borders once we live in a covid-free world - which is years away if ever.

The PM has explicitly said the opposite. That is, that once the vaccine is rolled out to all those that want it, the risk profile will change and restrictions will be assessed accordingly.

I agree however that bubbles are unlikely, simply because they can't be enforced. Once you're at the bubble destination, nothing can prevent you flying to a non bubble area.

 

[N860CR]

I agree however that bubbles are unlikely, simply because they can't be enforced. Once you're at the bubble destination, nothing can prevent you flying to a non bubble area.

Yep, that was my assessment 6 months ago and it’s about the same now. Bubbles may have worked late last year, but there’s no point now. It’s becoming clear that the vaccines are working fairly well so once we’re all vaccinated, then it’s time to move on with life. There’s nothing more we can do.

I remember in April or may last year Berryjingles clearly said “this isn’t over until we have a vaccine”. Each premier and major polli has made the same statement since. I don’t agree that a vaccine is the only way out of a pandemic, but that’s what Australia went with. I’m yet to see any other plan put forward.

 

[mviy]

QANTAS now is hoping to resume international flights come 31st October. This appears to be assuming that the government feels confident that herd immunity is reached as soon as vaccination is complete. Probably still an overly optimistic date.

 

[MEL_Traveller]

QANTAS now is hoping to resume international flights come 31st October. This appears to be assuming that the government feels confident that herd immunity is reached as soon as vaccination is complete. Probably still an overly optimistic date.

Is herd immunity a goal? The PM was saying that once the vulnerable are vaccinated, the risk profile changes.

 

[oznflfan]

Unfortunately herd immunity will take years to fully prove. We have to take a leap of faith based on everyone vaccinated, oversea's showing solid reductions in cases and transmissability. Give Scomo. Hunt & Murphy three-six months to umm and argh prior to openings. March 2022 would be a reasonable date for some sort of opening. If earlier, great. I'll be off somewhere in SE Asia (if other countries are cool with entry of course) as soon as they open borders.

 

[Pushka]

I think it's more that once everyone who wants the vaccination has had one then airlines will be happy to fly with a vaccination proof and maybe negative Covid test. Listening to a TA head on ABC radio just now said that it's really only Australia where people aren't flying right now. Especially once UK gets into Summer time. And with the vaccination likely no hotel quarantine, maybe just regular testing for a period. Maybe wishful thinking but I think come 2022 travel will be resuming as normally as Covid possible.

 

[dajop]

a TA head on ABC radio just now said that it's really only Australia where people aren't flying right now.

Not sure if I agree with what the TA indicated. Lot's of countries have put barriers in the way of people flying "freely", at least internationally, even though they don't have the restrictions on leaving the country like Australia, many have substantial barriers (two weeks in quarantine, at own expense) that discourage a lot of travel. I'd say Singapore, NZ, Thailand, Vietnam are all countries where people aren't flying internationally, and that's just to start with. (And I more definitively say, Singapore is one country where people aren't flying right now).

Domestically of course is a different story, Air NZ in their earnings release today, had a slide summarising domestic traffic Jan 20 vs Jan 21, and those figures show New Zealand with the lowest decrease in available seats (excluding China, which IIRC had already restricted domestic travel in Jan 20), with 80% of seats available vs last year, US @ 58%, Australia @ 50% and UK at 16%

Page 7 of link:

https://p-airnz.com/cms/assets/PDFs/air-nz-2021-interim-results-presentation.pdf

 

[Pushka]

Not sure if I agree with what the TA indicated. Lot's of countries have put barriers in the way of people flying "freely", at least internationally, even though they don't have the restrictions on leaving the country like Australia, many have substantial barriers (two weeks in quarantine, at own expense) that discourage a lot of travel. I'd say Singapore, NZ, Thailand, Vietnam are all countries where people aren't flying internationally, and that's just to start with. (And I more definitively say, Singapore is one country where people aren't flying right now).

Domestically of course is a different story, Air NZ in their earnings release today, had a slide summarising domestic traffic Jan 20 vs Jan 21, and those figures show New Zealand with the lowest decrease in available seats (excluding China, which IIRC had already restricted domestic travel in Jan 20), with 80% of seats available vs last year, US @ 58%, Australia @ 50% and UK at 16%

Page 7 of link:

https://p-airnz.com/cms/assets/PDFs/air-nz-2021-interim-results-presentation.pdf

I think his head was in Europe and US. Not Asia so much.

 

[drron]

As long as by the end of the year we are allowed OS.Happy if quarantine on arrival back as long as if vaccinated that can be done at home.Might even think of HQ if I could pick hotel and earn loyalty points.

 

[N860CR]

The government will have to start changing the attitudes of the general public, and the rhetoric since vaccinations started has shifted. While some don’t like to hear it, the simple fact is that this virus has an extremely high recovery rate, it’s not Ebola. Remove the elderly and “at risk” and the mortality rate is minuscule.

Vaccinate everyone (with a vaccine that seems to be highly effective) and the risk reduces to a level not indifferent with every other daily activity. If everyone is vaccinated by October, what’s the risk?

 

[Pom-DownUnder]

I've said it before and i'll say it again lol

Gov: Shoot me up, get out of my life.

the assess promise is shaky in my opinion, from other countries we have seen how "we need to stop the health system getting overrun" transforms into "we need to flatten the curve" transforms into "we need to protect the vulnerable" transforms into "we need to stop the spread" transforms into "STAY IN YOUR HOMES PEASANTS"

 

[MEL_Traveller]

I think his head was in Europe and US. Not Asia so much.

I read that European holiday flights and bookings skyrocketed in the hours after the UK PM announced the way out of lockdown. 'Unprecedented demand'. So yeah, plenty of the other of the world is travelling!

 

[I love to travel]

I wouldn't be thinking about any international travel until mask requirements are removed on domestic flights. I suspect if they are confident enough to remove the mask then they will have shifted thinking about travel being risky,

 

[N860CR]

I wouldn't be thinking about any international travel until mask requirements are removed on domestic flights. I suspect if they are confident enough to remove the mask then they will have shifted thinking about travel being risky,

True. But I really don’t know why we’re wearing masks on domestic flights. There’s no virus present in the community so wearing unhygienic, poorly fitted masks isn’t helping anyone.

 

[drron]

True. But I really don’t know why we’re wearing masks on domestic flights. There’s no virus present in the community so wearing unhygienic, poorly fitted masks isn’t helping anyone.

Possibly stops a few common colds.

 

[N860CR]

Possibly stops a few common colds.

Maybe. Does make me feel a little ill, though, watching people pull single use masks out of their pocket and put them on repeatedly. I sat next to someone on the way from back Brisbane today who’s surgical mask was so warn the strap was nearly broken