Predictions of when international flights may resume/bans lifted

[HappyFlyerFamily]

Have you seen this thread. @madrooster may be able to help with flights

I noticed @yld200 and madrooster crossed paths on madrooster’s thread about covid travel back to Australia, so I think yld200 is already across that there is likely an issue of flights to Melbourne.

 

[jb747]

I think it’s going to take quite some time before the average punter gets over the worry that they won’t be able to get home. That concern still exists within Oz, with the states and their seemingly random border closures, so the international variant won’t be forgotten any time soon.

So, yes, there probably is a pent up demand, and I suspect that will last for all of about two weeks. The business as usual crowd need to feel safe to travel, and I expect that will take a year or so, of watching normal travel happening, before they’ll feel like taking a shot.

 

[HappyFlyerFamily]

Qantas ‘will survive’ amid forecasts 40 per cent of airlines will go bankrupt

Qantas boss Alan Joyce insists the national carrier will survive while other airlines are driven bankrupt by the COVID-19 pandemic despite the company booking an eye-watering net loss.

www.news.com.au

 

[Seat0B]

Indeed lots of reports of advance bookings even for summer.

UK bookings surge on lockdown exit plan

Airlines have seen a jump in UK ticket sales in the hours after the government published information on the national plan for exiting lockdown.

www.flightglobal.com

Maybe this might force a rethink in opening our borders.Though QF's decision probably indicates bookings for August to 31/10 were light.

Unfortunately I haven't seen a lot of evidence that our government cares about the demand to travel (either inbound or outbound), although it would be excellent if our borders could open.

 

[yld200]

Have you seen this thread. @madrooster may be able to help with flights
Edit - have put in the link to the thread

Travelling to Australia During COVID-19 (Guide)

Check back periodically for expanded information and updates. Last Updated: 15 JUL 2021 Please note that this guide is no longer being updated. AFF on Air Podcasts Podcast #54: How to Fly to Australia Without Getting "Bumped"...

www.australianfrequentflyer.com.au

Thanks VPS, yes am already connected with madrooster.

I guess, I'm more curious as to what's happening in Melbourne since Dan has been so quiet on the matter. I didn't see any mention of international arrivals during todays presser.

 

[robd]

Thanks VPS, yes am already connected with madrooster.

I guess, I'm more curious as to what's happening in Melbourne since Dan has been so quiet on the matter. I didn't see any mention of international arrivals during todays presser.

Me too. Robd Jnr. has just accepted a job back in Oz (currently in KY, USA) and wants to fly back directly to MEL. Business class tkts are part of the package and the employer wants to book the tkts now for early - mid August 21. Assuming Dan opens the international gate in the next couple of weeks, what are the chances of any US carriers scheduling flights into MEL given the willingness of Dan to snap the border closed at the drop of a hat?

 

[I love to travel]

Me too. Robd Jnr. has just accepted a job back in Oz (currently in KY, USA) and wants to fly back directly to MEL. Business class tkts are part of the package and the employer wants to book the tkts now for early - mid August 21. Assuming Dan opens the international gate in the next couple of weeks, what are the chances of any US carriers scheduling flights into MEL given the willingness of Dan to snap the border closed at the drop of a hat?

I think that it is so hard to get and keep a seat into Oz your son cannot afford to be picky about which city he flies into.

 

[MEL_Traveller]

I think that it is so hard to get and keep a seat into Oz your son cannot afford to be picky about which city he flies into.

Agree. However I think Sydney would probably be the safest bet though for a US carrier.

 

[DC3]

... your son cannot afford to be picky about which city he flies into.

Yes, children can be very picky.

 

[Seat0B]

I think that it is so hard to get and keep a seat into Oz your son cannot afford to be picky about which city he flies into.

That has certainly been my son's experience trying to come home from UAE - his limitations are when his employer will give him leave, although his package includes an annual trip home, he can't just take it when he can get a ticket if that does not suit the employer . Oh I miss him.

 

[Pushka]

That has certainly been my son's experience trying to come home from UAE - his limitations are when his employer will give him leave, although his package includes an annual trip home, he can't just take it when he can get a ticket if that does not suit the employer . Oh I miss him.

Today I was telling a couple at the apartment complex where our son was living before he moved to the UK (so they knew him) about his plans to marry and possibly sooner than we expected in a registry before a larger ceremony next year, and that possibly we may have to zoom to see it. Next thing she is in tears. Her daughter moved to Washington 18 months ago and she is desperate to see her and can't. So many families apart - that isn't unusual these days, but these restrictions are starting to wreck havoc with peoples mental health. I get the sense as soon as she is vaccinated then she will be gone, one way or another.

 

[HappyFlyerFamily]

Today I was telling a couple at the apartment complex where our son was living before he moved to the UK (so they knew him) about his plans to marry and possibly sooner than we expected in a registry before a larger ceremony next year, and that possibly we may have to zoom to see it. Next thing she is in tears. Her daughter moved to Washington 18 months ago and she is desperate to see her and can't. So many families apart - that isn't unusual these days, but these restrictions are starting to wreck havoc with peoples mental health. I get the sense as soon as she is vaccinated then she will be gone, one way or another.

Yep. Hopefully the neighbor can get a six month visa to enter US. I think I heard a whisper of some crackdown on giving permission to leave Australia under the three month rule

 

[Pushka]

Yep. Hopefully the neighbor can get a six month visa to enter US. I think I heard a whisper of some crackdown on giving permission to leave Australia under the three month rule

I didn’t have the heart to tell her that July, her date, is too soon. However come 2022....

 

[Seat0B]

I know I’m not alone, but it is getting harder the longer it goes on with no clear timeframe. Plus I am so so so over the people who just want to close our international border forever.

 

[Must...Fly!]

I know I’m not alone, but it is getting harder the longer it goes on with no clear timeframe. Plus I am so so so over the people who just want to close our international border forever.

Those people likely wouldn't have travelled overseas anyway so I really don't understand their opinion

 

[Pom-DownUnder]

Those people likely wouldn't have travelled overseas anyway so I really don't understand their opinion

oh its pretty easy to understand "I want to live in a cave in fear and dont care who the hell gets screwed over as long as it isnt me"

 

[Pushka]

Those people likely wouldn't have travelled overseas anyway so I really don't understand their opinion

Well I guess they don’t understand ours. Likely they and they family have stayed in the same location - forever.

 

[hb13]

I'm in the same boat as many, I'm desperate to come home and visit my family in Australia. My Mum asks me every few months when I'm coming back (I'm in the UK currently). The issue is, from everything I read and see outside of this forum, most people seem completely fine with the government locking borders and have no issues with borders being closed for the foreseeable future, which infuriates me at times. Just because expats choose to live outside of Australia, it doesn't make us any less Australian than those inside the country.

And there is no doubt in my mind at all that federal and state governments don't care about the Aussies abroad, whether they are stranded or just want to come home for a visit. The travel sector in Australia, aviation companies and all those that rely on travel will be in trouble very very soon and people are asleep at the wheel. Everywhere else outside of Australia and NZ appear to have a strategy of how borders will open up where their borders are closed currently. Countries are slowly making it clear that once fully vaccinated, you can enter with no quarantine.

People need a clear strategy, a forward plan. And this plan can be contingent on factors happening. Why is it so difficult for the government to say that if vaccines prove to be about 80% effective against hospitalisations and say 95% against deaths, reduce transmission significantly, we will open borders to all those that want to come in and have been fully vaccinated, after the whole population in Australia is fully vaccinated?
I understand it's not exactly this simple - but shouldn't the experts, scientists have this plan in place now? They can still have caveats (like issues with other strains etc) - but why is this strategy not in place now??? Vaccinations have started and they expect to have the whole population done in about 7-8 months. Businesses need that forward time to plan. It's just head scratching.

 

[MEL_Traveller]

I'm in the same boat as many, I'm desperate to come home and visit my family in Australia. My Mum asks me every few months when I'm coming back (I'm in the UK currently). The issue is, from everything I read and see outside of this forum, most people seem completely fine with the government locking borders and have no issues with borders being closed for the foreseeable future, which infuriates me at times. Just because expats choose to live outside of Australia, it doesn't make us any less Australian than those inside the country.

And there is no doubt in my mind at all that federal and state governments don't care about the Aussies abroad, whether they are stranded or just want to come home for a visit. The travel sector in Australia, aviation companies and all those that rely on travel will be in trouble very very soon and people are asleep at the wheel. Everywhere else outside of Australia and NZ appear to have a strategy of how borders will open up where their borders are closed currently. Countries are slowly making it clear that once fully vaccinated, you can enter with no quarantine.

People need a clear strategy, a forward plan. And this plan can be contingent on factors happening. Why is it so difficult for the government to say that if vaccines prove to be about 80% effective against hospitalisations and say 95% against deaths, reduce transmission significantly, we will open borders to all those that want to come in and have been fully vaccinated, after the whole population in Australia is fully vaccinated?
I understand it's not exactly this simple - but shouldn't the experts, scientists have this plan in place now? They can still have caveats (like issues with other strains etc) - but why is this strategy not in place now??? Vaccinations have started and they expect to have the whole population done in about 7-8 months. Businesses need that forward time to plan. It's just head scratching.

I think that's what the government has been saying! The PM has said the risk profile will change once the vaccine has been rolled out. He's said we live with other viruses and the flu. He's said the relaxation of borders and the requirement for HQ won't be immediate, which is understandable. But six months is a long way away.

There'll be an element of education, but the majority of Aussies are aware of the impacts if covid gets into vulnerable populations. Once you remove that risk I think it will be a different discussion.

But there's more going on that just border restrictions for the aviation and travel sectors. News out of China today is that Aussie universities are not to be promoted. If that goes ahead i suspect Chinese tourists will face similar restrictions, or just not want to come. The Aussie tourism sector may need to pivot and be looking at other markets. (QF's exposure to China is pretty limited anyway.)

 

[HappyFlyerFamily]

Sorry to be blunt, but if an Aussie working abroad were coming back for say 4 weeks or more (with two weeks in mandatory quarantine), you can still leave without issue as you permanently reside outside Australia.

There are some on this forum that have done that already.

There is no guarantee a ‘fully’ vaccinated country will be considered a green country to avoid mandatory paid quarantine, or anything else more palatable this side of Christmas.