Predictions of when international flights may resume/bans lifted

[oznflfan]

Flying to Perth on Saturday, have to remember walking from plane into terminal, don't cough, don't cough. don't cough. Be my luck I do one cough and they single me out for a test and mandatory isolation until I test negative.

 

[Flashback]

I read that European holiday flights and bookings skyrocketed in the hours after the UK PM announced the way out of lockdown. 'Unprecedented demand'. So yeah, plenty of the other of the world is travelling!

It's not, it just shows lots of people are making maybe/hopeful bookings. There's still the testing tax going out and coming back, will the country they want to fly to let them in, etc. I'd put a lot of those early trips are low % of being able to happen. Keeping in mind also it's months away..... and that's assuming the road map sticks to that timeline.

At the moment those dates noted are the earliest each stage will occur. There's mumblings that if the vaccine rollout continues to be successful the dates could be brought forward, although Scotland has stated that as a maybe England has not.

 

[stryker]

It's not, it just shows lots of people are making maybe/hopeful bookings. There's still the testing tax going out and coming back, will the country they want to fly to let them in, etc. I'd put a lot of those early trips are low % of being able to happen. Keeping in mind also it's months away..... and that's assuming the road map sticks to that timeline.

At the moment those dates noted are the earliest each stage will occur. There's mumblings that if the vaccine rollout continues to be successful the dates could be brought forward, although Scotland has stated that as a maybe England has not.

As ever, a good, feet on the ground, view of the situation there.

All it takes is one false step by the UK Govt (eg sending all pupils back to school on the same day) to generate the next wave, and all bets will be off....

 

[Flashback]

As ever, a good, feet on the ground, view of the situation there.

All it takes is one false step by the UK Govt (eg sending all pupils back to school on the same day) to generate the next wave, and all bets will be off....

Absolutely, the monitoring of data between early March and early April will be interesting to watch. Italy was relatively OK over a busy touristic summer last year, until students went back. Now, I'm not saying that was a major reason for their increase but it can't have helped.

 

[hb13]

I think it's more that once everyone who wants the vaccination has had one then airlines will be happy to fly with a vaccination proof and maybe negative Covid test. Listening to a TA head on ABC radio just now said that it's really only Australia where people aren't flying right now. Especially once UK gets into Summer time. And with the vaccination likely no hotel quarantine, maybe just regular testing for a period. Maybe wishful thinking but I think come 2022 travel will be resuming as normally as Covid possible.

I'm not sure who the TA is but he's incorrect. In the UK no one is flying and there is a small chance at best if we can even travel in summer abroad. A very small hope. And that's based on what Bojo and the rest of his clowns have put out into the media. On the other side, most of Europe still has a hard ban on anyone from the UK entering Europe.

People in Europe are not really traveling either. Lockdowns are still in place in Switzerland and Germany, and it appears likely France is about to lockdown (announcement tonight).

I agree with you on 2022 however, but probably mid-2022 onwards. If vaccines are as good as they are for cutting transmission and almost eliminating deaths and hospitalisations, and everyone in Australia is vaccinated - there is literally no reason why borders remain closed for travellers coming into and out of Australia who have been fully vaccinated (using an approved vaccine). None whatsoever.

 

[hb13]

I read that European holiday flights and bookings skyrocketed in the hours after the UK PM announced the way out of lockdown. 'Unprecedented demand'. So yeah, plenty of the other of the world is travelling!

Completely incorrect. No one in the UK is travelling. Many people are hopeful of travelling in the summer, but at best that is just a faint hope that depends on so many things going right to happen.

Plenty of European countries still in lockdown - so there is no travel going on in much of Europe. And the same with Asia.

'Unprecedented demand' doesn't mean 'people are travelling' if many governments are not allowing it and don't actually care about what happens to the aviation industry.

 

[Pushka]

I'm not sure who the TA is but he's incorrect. In the UK no one is flying and there is a small chance at best if we can even travel in summer abroad. A very small hope. And that's based on what Bojo and the rest of his clowns have put out into the media. On the other side, most of Europe still has a hard ban on anyone from the UK entering Europe.

People in Europe are not really traveling either. Lockdowns are still in place in Switzerland and Germany, and it appears likely France is about to lockdown (announcement tonight).

I agree with you on 2022 however, but probably mid-2022 onwards. If vaccines are as good as they are for cutting transmission and almost eliminating deaths and hospitalisations, and everyone in Australia is vaccinated - there is literally no reason why borders remain closed for travellers coming into and out of Australia who have been fully vaccinated (using an approved vaccine). None whatsoever.

Yes. Did mention in a later post not UK. He mentioned a figure of five million in the air at any time. For what it's worth, son and future DIL have booked an international flight from UK later in the year to northern hemisphere, so it certainly is happening.

 

[MEL_Traveller]

Completely incorrect. No one in the UK is travelling. Many people are hopeful of travelling in the summer, but at best that is just a faint hope that depends on so many things going right to happen.

Plenty of European countries still in lockdown - so there is no travel going on in much of Europe. And the same with Asia.

'Unprecedented demand' doesn't mean 'people are travelling' if many governments are not allowing it and don't actually care about what happens to the aviation industry.

It is clear that these bookings are in advance, for when the restrictions are planned to end. That's the unprecedented demand.

 

[Flashback]

Yes. Did mention in a later post not UK. He mentioned a figure of five million in the air at any time. For what it's worth, son and future DIL have booked an international flight from UK later in the year to northern hemisphere, so it certainly is happening.

Yes, bookings are indeed happening.... travelling though, is not which is what @MEL_Traveller was indicating. Trips for later this year do of course have a much higher probability of going ahead.

Airlines in countries that rely on tourism are gathering data on discounted tests etc. to help further drive demand.

Laboratory test for diagnosing the coronavirus disease COVID-2019 (SARS-CoV-2)

Taking this test can help you avoid having to follow restrictive measures when you reach your destination, so you can immediately start enjoying your trip.

www.iberia.com

NHS is looking to also use it's CV-19 app to double up as proof of test/vaccination results too, in addition to the contract tracing it's been doing.

NHS app to be converted for vaccine passports

The NHS app will become a digital Covid certificate allowing people to use their phone to prove they have been vaccinated or have tested negative.Downing Stre

www.thetimes.co.uk

 

[yld200]

Does anyone have any insight as to when international flights will be allowed into MEL again?

Dan has been relatively quiet and I'm hearing many disappointing rumors like late March which is disappointing for my fam and I who have flights booked arriving on the 16/03...

 

[drron]

It is clear that these bookings are in advance, for when the restrictions are planned to end. That's the unprecedented demand.

Indeed lots of reports of advance bookings even for summer.

UK bookings surge on lockdown exit plan

Airlines have seen a jump in UK ticket sales in the hours after the government published information on the national plan for exiting lockdown.

www.flightglobal.com

Maybe this might force a rethink in opening our borders.Though QF's decision probably indicates bookings for August to 31/10 were light.

 

[HappyFlyerFamily]

India cases fall from a peak of 90,000 cases per day down to about 10,000 cases per day. Positivity rate is about 5%. Some viewpoints on why/how.

India was in crisis months ago. Why have its Covid cases plummeted?

Six months ago, India was in crisis. Critically ill Covid-19 patients were being turned away from hospitals. Doctors were collapsing from exhaustion. And the virus was spreading through crowded slums, home to millions of the country's poorest people.

edition.cnn.com

 

[HappyFlyerFamily]

Article on UK v EU on covid and vaccines.

Boris Johnson's vaccine strategy gets another boost, while Europe's scramble for shots continues

The UK's vaccination program is a rare pandemic success story for Boris Johnson. It's a different story on the other side of the Channel, where Europe is still struggling to get rollout programs off the ground.

edition.cnn.com

 

[hb13]

It is clear that these bookings are in advance, for when the restrictions are planned to end. That's the unprecedented demand.

Yeh, but it is just bookings, and they are less than a 50% chance of them occurring. Your statement of "plenty of the other of the world is travelling!" is not correct because no one is travelling and won't be for at least another 2 - 3 months.

 

[MEL_Traveller]

Yeh, but it is just bookings, and they are less than a 50% chance of them occurring. Your statement of "plenty of the other of the world is travelling!" is not correct because no one is travelling and won't be for at least another 2 - 3 months.

It was a comparison to the attitudes in Australia where many seem reluctant to even consider - let alone make - future or speculative bookings. Many Aussies are coming up with lots of reasons to not even make a booking, compared to UK/USA/Europe where people are willing to take up the opportunity.

If you like, you could replace 'is' with 'will be' in my post.

Yesterday, when Qantas announced the resumption of services from 31 October, fares from MEL to DPS jumped from $2080 (J class. via SYD) to $2480. Same dates, same flights. So 'snoozing' would have added almost $800 for a couple.

 

[hb13]

It was a comparison to the attitudes in Australia where many seem reluctant to even consider - let alone make - future or speculative bookings. Many Aussies are coming up with lots of reasons to not even make a booking, compared to UK/USA/Europe where people are willing to take up the opportunity.

If you like, you could replace 'is' with 'will be' in my post.

Yesterday, when Qantas announced the resumption of services from 31 October, fares from MEL to DPS jumped from $2080 (J class. via SYD) to $2480. Same dates, same flights. So 'snoozing' would have added almost $800 for a couple.

Replacing 'is' to 'will be' is completely different. But in saying that, that isn't right either. As has been mentioned earlier by Flashback, who like me is based in the UK, all those bookings are based in hope, and that is it. We are hopeful here but the chances are slim.

Just yesterday the UK Home Secretary said it's still too early to even think about travelling in the summer. I'm hopeful that she is wrong, as are many here, but it shows that the government here isn't keen on travel and will make it difficult for travellers and aviation companies. This is personally infuriating for me, but once again - travel, unfortunately for people in the UK/Europe/US is still a very, very long way off.

 

[MEL_Traveller]

I guess it comes down to individual definitions of ‘long way off’. For me, three months away - summer - is ‘close in’ when considering the constraints of covid and vaccination programs.

The demand is there. People are booking. They will take the flights if they are allowed. That’s a different scenario to people reluctant to book because they are uncertain.

 

[drron]

My take from @Pushka and @MEL_Traveller's posts is that having been given a plan out of lockdown and for possible travel people decided to book indicating a desire to travel ie pent up demand.

Now we don't see that in Australia now but if we were given a similiar timetable (as indeed the Tassie Government did with their lockdown) we will quite possibly see the same pent up demand here in Australia

 

[VPS]

Does anyone have any insight as to when international flights will be allowed into MEL again?

Dan has been relatively quiet and I'm hearing many disappointing rumors like late March which is disappointing for my fam and I who have flights booked arriving on the 16/03...

Have you seen this thread. @madrooster may be able to help with flights
Edit - have put in the link to the thread

Travelling to Australia During COVID-19 (Guide)

Check back periodically for expanded information and updates. Last Updated: 15 JUL 2021 Please note that this guide is no longer being updated. AFF on Air Podcasts Podcast #54: How to Fly to Australia Without Getting "Bumped"...

www.australianfrequentflyer.com.au

 

[dajop]

How much of this pent up demand (for international travel in Europe) is for North America or Dubai and beyond (in the other direction) vs intra-Europe travel (which is more like domestic travel within Australia)? London - southern Spain is like Melbourne to Gold Coast with a change of language thrown in (well some would argue that going from Vic to Qld .... I digress).

Point being international travel from Australia (except NZ from east coast) is medium-long haul, almost no short haul.