Predictions of when international flights may resume/bans lifted

[dajop]

A curious thing to ask the forum/thread: what were the incoming traveller numbers per month? Could any country sustain hotel quarantine for even 25% of that amount. (25% being a thumb suck guesstimation of what activity might continue if we are allowed to leave freely).

The number of inbound international travellers in Nov 2019 was ~ 1.7m. So 25% of that is 425,000 or about 100,000 a week ... about 15-20 times the current cap.

 

[hb13]

I can’t wait for the day when this thread is no longer relevant and it gets closed for further reply by the admin. Seems we just go around in circles more or less.

No one is making you visit this thread.

 

[NoName]

No one is making you visit this thread.

A well thought out response. Well done!

 

[hb13]

A well thought out response. Well done!

LOL. It's not about thinking of a response. You don't like it, don't visit lol.

 

[NoName]

LOL. It's not about thinking of a response. You don't like it, don't visit lol.

Yes, I can tell it’s not about thinking.

How about forming a cogent response to my post instead of poor throwaway lines like that. Why don’t you start with what part of my post you disagree with? Do you not also look forward to the day when COVID is not longer an issue for anyone? Or do you prefer to continue talking about it forever?

 

[MEL_Traveller]

While in principle I agree with you - and I'm looking to do that for intra-Europe travel later this summer and then possibly back home to Australia for a couple of weeks in Feb next year - however, let's be honest. What are the chances of that latter trip happening?

I have made a booking with QR to fly back to MEL that I have now pushed 3 times - the booking still exists and will need to be pushed again. And this is the extremely frustrating thing that I have been trying to explain to you. By the end of this year, I would expect that the whole Australian population will be vaccinated. I expect that I should be here in the UK too as the plan is to be done by end of Sept/Oct.

If the above all happens - what chance do I put at being able to enter Australia and not have to quarantine? I'd say 10% maybe? Would you say differently? You are saying you can see the PM has shifted and there is some plan there. So what do you put the chances of a fully vaccinated traveler going to Aus without quarantining (after all Aussies have been vaccinated)?

I see this as two distinct parts... pre and post vaccine. Pre vaccine lots of uncertainty... caps, reduced flights, cancellations, rescheduling, snap border closures. Post vaccine, that should change as we aren't heading for elimination.

I don't think we can draw anything from 'pre vaccine' into the post vaccine environment, unless of course we get some new variant or other emerging threat.

And, barring any new (major) threats for which we don't have vaccine protection or other treatments, I'd say the chances of your February trip are pretty good. There'd be little basis under the Biosecurity Act to prevent it. I think HQ is also going to be dependent on the same conditions... the absence of any new major threats.

 

[hb13]

Yes, I can tell it’s not about thinking.

How about forming a cogent response to my post instead of poor throwaway lines like that. Why don’t you start with what part of my post you disagree with? Do you not also look forward to the day when COVID is not longer an issue for anyone? Or do you prefer to continue talking about it forever?

I don't think your post deserves a cogent response - that's my point.

No one wants Covid a second longer, including myself. However, no one responding to this thread or the AFF forum has any control over that.

People come to this thread for many different things including to see what others opinion on the matter is, how people are feeling about it, possibly what some people plan to do now or post-Covid, possibly even for some hope that the end is near and some are here for interaction as well.

I don't believe anyone on this thread however is here for judgement. No one here claims to be an expert on the matter, and we are all fed up and want our old lives back, and from that stems the need to go where others are feeling the same. This forum happens to be one of those places - at least for some people.

 

[hb13]

I see this as two distinct parts... pre and post vaccine. Pre vaccine lots of uncertainty... caps, reduced flights, cancellations, rescheduling, snap border closures. Post vaccine, that should change as we aren't heading for elimination.

I don't think we can draw anything from 'pre vaccine' into the post vaccine environment, unless of course we get some new variant or other emerging threat.

But in that lies the next question. When you say pre and post vaccine, who are we referring to? As in for the Australian population or the world population? Because if you look at Israel and the UAE - they'll likely be finished vaccinating their populations as of June or July. The UK/US seem to be on track for Sept/Oct. Australia most likely Nov. However, many part of the world, including Europe will be much later. Than Africa may be another couple of years.

And, barring any new (major) threats for which we don't have vaccine protection or other treatments, I'd say the chances of your February trip are pretty good. There'd be little basis under the Biosecurity Act to prevent it. I think HQ is also going to be dependent on the same conditions... the absence of any new major threats.

It would be a stretch to say a pretty good chance IMHO, even though I really want to. I have little faith in government of any kind at the moment.

 

[MEL_Traveller]

But in that lies the next question. When you say pre and post vaccine, who are we referring to? As in for the Australian population or the world population? Because if you look at Israel and the UAE - they'll likely be finished vaccinating their populations as of June or July. The UK/US seem to be on track for Sept/Oct. Australia most likely Nov. However, many part of the world, including Europe will be much later. Than Africa may be another couple of years.



It would be a stretch to say a pretty good chance IMHO, even though I really want to. I have little faith in government of any kind at the moment.

I think 'post vaccine' refers to all those in Australia, who want to be, being vaccinated. If someone from the elsewhere has been vaccinated, but can still carry the virus, we don't want that spreading to vulnerable persons here.

But there'll be some unpacking to do on the last bit. Once we've all been vaccinated here, how do we handle borders for those mot vaccinated? Non-citizens/PR probably won't even get to board their transport here. Aussie citizens/PR from countries not having had the chance to vaccinate... will there still need to be quarantine?

 

[NoName]

I don't believe anyone on this thread however is here for judgement. No one here claims to be an expert on the matter, and we are all fed up and want our old lives back, and from that stems the need to go where others are feeling the same. This forum happens to be one of those places - at least for some people.

And here’s your problem right here, you incorrectly think that I am judging you and others who choose to post on this thread. My post was a comment on how long COVID has dragged on and an observation that the opinions on this thread are rehashed over and over with no real change. If youre so self conscious that you choose to take that as judgement then that’s on you. As is your choice to lash out with the lame old “don’t read” response which says more about you than my initial post could ever say about me.

 

[N860CR]

Aussie citizens/PR from countries not having had the chance to vaccinate... will there still need to be quarantine?

The current arrangement for Yellow Fever has been used for years and I can’t see a reason to not continue doing it. If you say “I’ve been to Africa/South America in the last 6 days” then select one of the countries on the naughty list, you need to prove vaccination via the yellow book (strike rate thus far is 100% of customs officers not knowing what the yellow book is). Policy is that, should you not be vaccinated, you get a “stern talking to about the risk of yellow fever”.

Now Yellow Fever is far worse than COVID (? I think), so why go beyond that?

 

[MEL_Traveller]

The current arrangement for Yellow Fever has been used for years and I can’t see a reason to not continue doing it. If you say “I’ve been to Africa/South America in the last 6 days” then select one of the countries on the naughty list, you need to prove vaccination via the yellow book (strike rate thus far is 100% of customs officers not knowing what the yellow book is). Policy is that, should you not be vaccinated, you get a “stern talking to about the risk of yellow fever”.

Now Yellow Fever is far worse than COVID (? I think), so why go beyond that?

One of the reasons they *may* still want quarantine for those coming in unvaccinated is if non-vaccine carries a higher viral load compared to those vaccinated (but still carrying)? In that case they may want to offer some protection to those in Australia who choose not to, or can't, get vaccinated. They may ask non-vaccinated to stay at home for 10 days or something in case they get symptoms.

 

[N860CR]

One of the reasons they *may* still want quarantine for those coming in unvaccinated is if non-vaccine carries a higher viral load compared to those vaccinated (but still carrying)? In that case they may want to offer some protection to those in Australia who choose not to, or can't, get vaccinated. They may ask non-vaccinated to stay at home for 10 days or something in case they get symptoms.

Don’t disagree that this is a likely path, but why do we not do the same for worse viruses?

 

[MEL_Traveller]

Don’t disagree that this is a likely path, but why do we not do the same for worse viruses?

Ease of transmission for covid? Even living in Asia during the swine and bird I never got the impression is was as easily transmissible as covid? Or maybe the dangers just weren't explained?

 

[burmans]

Not sure why the obsession with plans is for in this environment. As a program manager by trade I’m well aware of the value and a fan of planning. But planning to the level of certainty desired requested by some here requires us to be dealing with ‘knowns’. In my view this is a delusion, we still don’t really know how effective these vaccines will be, how long they will last, how many people will take them both here and overseas, whether variants will emerge which are vaccine resistant among other factors.

Given the unknowns much as I understand the appeal of a long term plan based on a set of assumptions appears attractive such a plan will almost certainly prove wrong. Short term adaptive planning, while not as attractive, does seem the most effective. Just look at industry, those that have thrived have been those that have been adaptive, not those who have pretended they have a grand plan.

Not that I disagree that Scomo doesn’t have a plan but I just don’t see the value in a grand plan that the minister for announcements has little likelihood of actually delivering on.

 

[dajop]

Ease of transmission for covid? Even living in Asia during the swine and bird I never got the impression is was as easily transmissible as covid? Or maybe the dangers just weren't explained?

Yes some diseases are much worse but transmission not as easy. I think yellow fever has a significantly higher mortality rate, but being spread by mosquitos you can’t get it by dining in the same restaurant as someone who has the disease unless there’s mosquitoes present.

MERS also seems to be a much worse coronvirus (as measured by mortalities) but due to limited person to person transmission did not spread like COVID-19.

 

[drron]

There is still malaria.In 2019 there were 229 million cases and 409000 deaths 67% of whom were children under 5.
And this is despite the fact that just 50% of the worlds population is at risk.

Fact sheet about malaria

Malaria is a life-threatening disease caused by parasites that are transmitted to people through the bites of infected female mosquitoes.

www.who.int

$US3 billion was spent in 2019 to try and control malaria.
In the year 2000 there were 262 million cases and over 800000 deaths.

So some classify the mosquito as the greatest mass murderer in history.

 

[kamchatsky]

At the moment, I don't think I can travel overseas by Xmas/New Year period. However, it doesn't stop me from booking speculative award bookings for my family overseas during that period of time. At worst, I will be able to cancel for free as airlines will cancel flights etc as time gets closer. That's all we can do at the moment.

 

[N860CR]

There is still malaria.In 2019 there were 229 million cases and 409000 deaths 67% of whom were children under 5.
And this is despite the fact that just 50% of the worlds population is at risk.

Absolutley. And we’re talking about healthy and otherwise fully functioning members of the community. Not those in end of life care.

I’d really like to see an assessment of how many died of COVID who weren’t already in the final stages of life. I suspect it would be well less than deaths caused by malaria.

 

[dajop]

Absolutley. And we’re talking about healthy and otherwise fully functioning members of the community. Not those in end of life care.

I’d really like to see an assessment of how many died of COVID who weren’t already in the final stages of life. I suspect it would be well less than deaths caused by malaria.

Brutal truth: Malaria effects poor nations, mainly Africa. Doesn't affect developed nations in the same way. It is outside the paradigm of the western world, and indeed most of the rest of the world (i.e. outside of Africa). Not saying that's the right and ethical outlook but that's the way it is.

For example, if you take the G20 as representing the true power in the world (ie. what drives world outlook and policy) ... it was estimated there were 20,000 malaria deaths (in the figures I saw for 2017) amongst G20 nations, almost all in India (17,000) and Indonesia (3,000) vs 160,000 and 40,000 reported COVID deaths in those two nations alone in the last year. [In the rest of the G20, South Africa had ~300 and Brazil ~30].

And in the context of this particular thread, how many Australians or foreigners each year bring Malaria into the country from one of the hotspots, and transmit it to other people within Australia?