Predictions of when international flights may resume/bans lifted

[RAM]

Brutal truth: Malaria effects poor nations, mainly Africa. Doesn't affect developed nations in the same way. It is outside the paradigm of the western world, and indeed most of the rest of the world (i.e. outside of Africa). Not saying that's the right and ethical outlook but that's the way it is.

For example, if you take the G20 as representing the true power in the world (ie. what drives world outlook and policy) ... it was estimated there were 20,000 malaria deaths (in the figures I saw for 2017) amongst G20 nations, almost all in India (17,000) and Indonesia (3,000) vs 160,000 and 40,000 reported COVID deaths in those two nations alone in the last year. [In the rest of the G20, South Africa had ~300 and Brazil ~30].

And in the context of this particular thread, how many Australians or foreigners each year bring Malaria into the country from one of the hotspots, and transmit it to other people within Australia?

Yes mosquitoes have a lot to answer for - much closer to home we have Ross River fever spreading south all to rapidly.

And, as I suspect 99% of (non-AFF) Hawaiian bound tourists don't know - Denghi fever is seemingly near ever present on several of the islands since the early 2000s - just not publicised widely.

What diseases do mosquitoes carry in Hawaii?

Sure, mosquitoes in Hawaii are annoying, but they can spread disease such as Dengue Fever and even the relatively new disease, chikungunya. encephalitis, malaria, yellow fever, and West Nile virus.

"Dengue is not endemic to Hawaii but has occasionally spread after being imported by infected travelers. The outbreak on the Big Island is the first cluster of locally-acquired dengue fever since a 2011 outbreak on Oahu, the Hawaii Department of Health said."

There have been outbreaks in 2015 (over 65,000 cases), 2016, 2018 & 2019. The last two (on the Big Island) got virtually zero publicity and in several areas people only found out by County officials turning up at your door to warn you & request that you check your property for any stagnant water locations. The notifications were done +/- 100 yards of a diagnosed case. Which seemed way too short a distance.

How far can mosquitoes fly? Mosquito species preferring to breed around the house, like the Asian Tiger Mosquito, have limited flight ranges of about 300 feet. Most species have flight ranges of 1-3 miles. Certain large pool breeders in the Midwest are often found up to 7 miles from known breeding spots.

One species in Hawaii is around 1/4 the size of a typical mosquito found in Melbourne/Sydney, much smaller than a fruit fly. Also much quieter.

 

[dajop]

"Dengue is not endemic to Hawaii but has occasionally spread after being imported by infected travelers. The outbreak on the Big Island is the first cluster of locally-acquired dengue fever since a 2011 outbreak on Oahu, the Hawaii Department of Health said."

In 2020, Dengue fever resulted in 32 deaths in Singapore. COVID led to 29 deaths.

But but but ..... no additional controls were put in place to prevent dengue spreading (other than vector control activities* and awareness raising) versus extreme controls on people gathering and movement to reduce the impact of COVID. So it's always an apples vs orange comparison to compare such different scenarios.

* vector control including fogging, spraying, drainage of areas where water gathers/mosquitoes breed and door knocking and checking apartments to ensure people don't have mosquito breeding environments - such as pot plants full of stagnant water.

 

[drron]

Yes mosquitoes have a lot to answer for - much closer to home we have Ross River fever spreading south all to rapidly.

And, as I suspect 99% of (non-AFF) Hawaiian bound tourists don't know - Denghi fever is seemingly near ever present on several of the islands since the early 2000s - just not publicised widely.

What diseases do mosquitoes carry in Hawaii?

Sure, mosquitoes in Hawaii are annoying, but they can spread disease such as Dengue Fever and even the relatively new disease, chikungunya. encephalitis, malaria, yellow fever, and West Nile virus.

"Dengue is not endemic to Hawaii but has occasionally spread after being imported by infected travelers. The outbreak on the Big Island is the first cluster of locally-acquired dengue fever since a 2011 outbreak on Oahu, the Hawaii Department of Health said."

There have been outbreaks in 2015 (over 65,000 cases), 2016, 2018 & 2019. The last two (on the Big Island) got virtually zero publicity and in several areas people only found out by County officials turning up at your door to warn you & request that you check your property for any stagnant water locations. The notifications were done +/- 100 yards of a diagnosed case. Which seemed way too short a distance.

How far can mosquitoes fly? Mosquito species preferring to breed around the house, like the Asian Tiger Mosquito, have limited flight ranges of about 300 feet. Most species have flight ranges of 1-3 miles. Certain large pool breeders in the Midwest are often found up to 7 miles from known breeding spots.

One species in Hawaii is around 1/4 the size of a typical mosquito found in Melbourne/Sydney, much smaller than a fruit fly. Also much quieter.

Sorry but you are totally wrong about Ross River fever.It has been in Southern Australia for a very long time.The first outbreak by symptoms was in 1928 around Narranderra and Hay.Many outbreaks in the Murray valley.It got the name just because the virus was first discovered in a patient from Townsville.
It is found in PNG and throughout the Western Pacific.More recently introduced to India.
An identical virus is found in Japan.

Then a similiar disease is Barmah Forest virus.Again named for the place where the virus was first identified.But there are cases every year in Queensland.In fact when I was in practice on the Sunshine Coast Barmah Forest virus was often more common than Ross River on the Coast according to the figures released every month by Pathology company QML.

A similiar illness in adults can also be caused by Parvovirus B19.It is more common in children though and then called the Slapped Face syndrome owing to it's typical rash.

 

[OATEK]

In 2020, Dengue fever resulted in 32 deaths in Singapore. COVID led to 29 deaths.

Its apples and oranges again. Dengue sits in the background like many other diseases, nad life in SIN goes on. But to apply the same approach to COVID as Dengue would have seen SIN become a pariah state. All these issues around virus based illness, pandemics etc are multi-dimensional, and far more complex than depicted by deatch rates.

 

[dajop]

Its apples and oranges again. Dengue sits in the background like many other diseases, nad life in SIN goes on. But to apply the same approach to COVID as Dengue would have seen SIN become a pariah state. All these issues around virus based illness, pandemics etc are multi-dimensional, and far more complex than depicted by deatch rates.

Although, like good media everywhere, you misquoted me in making it out that I was suggesting the two were equivalent, even though my next paragraph {but, but, but_ ..) said exactly that it was an apples oranges comparison. Not that I care, but it does provide an insight into be wary of when we make judgements or launch into attacks on politicians based on single quotes!

 

[OATEK]

In 2020, Dengue fever resulted in 32 deaths in Singapore. COVID led to 29 deaths.

But but but ..... no additional controls were put in place to prevent dengue spreading (other than vector control activities* and awareness raising) versus extreme controls on people gathering and movement to reduce the impact of COVID. So it's always an apples vs orange comparison to compare such different scenarios.

* vector control including fogging, spraying, drainage of areas where water gathers/mosquitoes breed and door knocking and checking apartments to ensure people don't have mosquito breeding environments - such as pot plants full of stagnant water.

Its apples and oranges again. Dengue sits in the background like many other diseases, nad life in SIN goes on. But to apply the same approach to COVID as Dengue would have seen SIN become a pariah state. All these issues around virus based illness, pandemics etc are multi-dimensional, and far more complex than depicted by deatch rates.

I am sorry you feel it was some sort of an "attack", but I just struggle with the comparison. But its not my field so I will leave it there.

 

[dajop]

I am sorry you feel it was some sort of an "attack", but I just struggle with the comparison. But its not my field so I will leave it there.

No, I didn't think it was an attack, nor that it was deliberate on your behalf, we have to truncate our quotes somewhere! And I 100% agree with you (there are plenty of comparisons out there between infections/deaths for various diseases under "modus operandi" vs COVID outcomes under anything but "modus operandi"... you know it's just like the flu ..... except omiting the fact that in a flu season we don't severely curtain international travel, social gatherings etc etc). What I was illustrating that this was what you see in the media, where the media will deliberately take certain comments out of context to support a view point, I know it wasn't deliberate as we agree with each other! Media training #101 never give a quote that could be easily taken out of context and never say no as an answer to a question,.

 

[hb13]

Australia's international travel ban extended to June 2021

Your passport can stay packed away for a little longer...

www.executivetraveller.com

I don't understand why they don't just extend it till the end of this year because that will be the case anyway.

Greg Hunt was quoted as saying "The international world remains a challenging and dangerous environment and Australia won't be fully safe until the international community is safe".

Obviously that can be read many ways, but to me it appears as though borders will remain shut until at least the majority of the globe is vaccinated. And that's not happening before 2023.

 

[zenyattamondatta]

Greg Hunt was quoted as saying "The international world remains a challenging and dangerous environment and Australia won't be fully safe until the international community is safe".

Obviously that can be read many ways, but to me it appears as though borders will remain shut until at least the majority of the globe is vaccinated. And that's not happening before 2023.

They want a WHO declaration that the pandemic is 'over'. Which they may get around a year from now. Good luck to airlines trying to plan around that, though.

 

[hb13]

They want a WHO declaration that the pandemic is 'over'. Which they may get around a year from now. Good luck to airlines trying to plan around that, though.

I can't imagine WHO will declare that till at lease the old and vulnerable have been vaccinated in every single country, which according to most experts predicting this will be some time between 2023-2024.

But I agree re airlines. It does seem inevitable that more airlines will bite the dust.

 

[MEL_Traveller]

Australia's international travel ban extended to June 2021

Your passport can stay packed away for a little longer...

www.executivetraveller.com

I don't understand why they don't just extend it till the end of this year because that will be the case anyway.

The reason is that they aren't allowed to.

Declarations or restrictions made under the Biosecurity Act can only last for three months and must be reassessed. If the conditions no longer exist, the restrictions cannot be lawfully extended.

 

[dajop]

The reason is that they aren't allowed to.

Declarations or restrictions made under the Biosecurity Act can only last for three months and must be reassessed. If the conditions no longer exist, the restrictions cannot be lawfully extended.

The “conditions” are quite easy to say exist whatever they want them to say exists. New Zealand has a “do not travel warning” yet for most of the last 4 months Australia has been accepting travellers from there without quarantine or even a test. (Of course separate to NZ government travel requirements).

 

[MEL_Traveller]

The “conditions” are quite easy to say exist whatever they want them to say exists. New Zealand has a “do not travel warning” yet for most of the last 4 months Australia has been accepting travellers from there without quarantine or even a test. (Of course separate to NZ government travel requirements).

True. But they could then leave themselves open to a challenge. The courts may not agree.

 

[hb13]

True. But they could then leave themselves open to a challenge. The courts may not agree.

Who will challenge it and have a realistic shot at winning? They may as well just put out guidance that this ban will continue for at least another 12 months.

It's only fair to tell the Australian public and businesses that international travel won't happen this year so that people don't plan for that or have false hope.

 

[N860CR]

Brutal truth: Malaria effects poor nations, mainly Africa. Doesn't affect developed nations in the same way. It is outside the paradigm of the western world, and indeed most of the rest of the world (i.e. outside of Africa). Not saying that's the right and ethical outlook but that's the way it is.

Correct. And likely the same reason that there’s been no concern shown for tens of millions of WFP estimated deaths by starvation I’ve the coming year due to the broken transport links.

 

[Jacques Vert]

Brutal truth: Malaria effects poor nations, mainly Africa.

Don't forget PNG; around 800 deaths per annum according to this source:

800 die of malaria in Papua New Guinea annually - PSI

As many as 800 people are dying of malaria each year in Papua New Guinea. Statistics released by Population Services International (PSI) show that there are around one million malaria cases reported annually in PNG. The health organisation also says 18 per cent of all deaths at PNG hospitals are...

www.psi.org

 

[N860CR]

As a bit of a datapoint from overseas (given Australian media seems to report very selectively), latest numbers from South Africa have shown a massive drop in case numbers (well below 1000 per day) to the lowest point since the beginning of the pandemic. This is despite restrictions being rolled back to the lowest level (L1) and the scary, infectious African strain being prominent.

 

[Toula92122]

So the big bad virus is so evil all Australians need to be locked in. However on the other hand it's not that bad that the government is moving heaven and earth to provide any real meaningful assistance to get home stranded citizens. And it's not that bad that sporting figures can't come and go. And it's not that bad that anyone who can plead a business need is stopped from going. Obviously it's just bad for ordinary citizens.

 

[Pushka]

So the big bad virus is so evil all Australians need to be locked in. However on the other hand it's not that bad that the government is moving heaven and earth to provide any real meaningful assistance to get home stranded citizens. And it's not that bad that sporting figures can't come and go. And it's not that bad that anyone who can plead a business need is stopped from going. Obviously it's just bad for ordinary citizens.

And now it's the Worlds Surfing community about to descend, presumably for Bells Beach Easter championship.

Post automatically merged: Mar 3, 2021

As a bit of a datapoint from overseas (given Australian media seems to report very selectively), latest numbers from South Africa have shown a massive drop in case numbers (well below 1000 per day) to the lowest point since the beginning of the pandemic. This is despite restrictions being rolled back to the lowest level (L1) and the scary, infectious African strain being prominent.

That is brilliant. But it seems Qld have now reported a Russian variant. Sigh.

 

[dajop]

And now it's the Worlds Surfing community about to descend, presumably for Bells Beach Easter championship.

Post automatically merged: Mar 3, 2021

Descending on NSW, at the least. Bells Beach is being held at Newcastle this year .