Predictions of when international flights may resume/bans lifted

[prozac]

Assuming it works on the variants / mutants..... and initial data suggests not very effective against a couple of the new ones unfortunately.

Well one of the covid patients in QLD outbreak is a nurse who has already been vaccinated, albeit once only.
If we are having a sweep, my guess is June 2022 at the very earliest for International travel, assuming the population is vaccinated by then ... and that is not looking good. 2 friends in the first (most vulnerable) group of people to be vaccinated have just been told they get their first jab mid June and 2nd in September.
What hope have we got when the rollout is so protracted?

 

[hb13]

I think the 2023-24 timeline for intl travel returning sounds about right. The vaccination program started late - and by late I mean far later than Europe, UK, US and some M/E countries. Now, the vaccination program is going very slowly. And as some here have noted in the past, let's be frank, the politicians don't actually care.

 

[hb13]

Wash you mouth out with soap my friend.

March 2022 planning somewhere safe in SE Asia.

European Summer 2023 I'm in UK, France, Germany, Poland and any other country I want.

SE Asia is a 50/50 shot, possibly even less. The reason I think its 50/50 is because Thailand I understand is going to open its doors this years to fully vaccinated people. There are also reports that Singapore is in talks with the UK for a travel corridor. If those happen, I imagine a bunch of other SE Asian countries will join up in creating corridors with most likely the UK, the US, Israel and the UAE, as well as other countries with high vaccination rates. Remember - the UK plans to have everyone vaccinated by about July/August, the US a little earlier and so forth.

The chances of the above happening sometime this year I would say is decent. If it does, you can forget SE Asia. Because these countries are in effect saying "we are ok with some level of cases if everyone is vaccinated and the chance of severe disease and death is very low. The Australian government right now is in the power of Brendan Murphy and conservative doctors and scientists who will only allow free movement once Covid-19 is eradicated.

Some may say that changes when all Australians are vaccinated - there is no proof whatsoever that will be the case. Moreover, vaccinations are on track to be finished mid-2022 at this rate at best.

 

[mviy]

Predictions of when international flights may resume/bans lifted. Does that include wild guesses as well?

Put each of the next 24 months onto pieces of paper, put them into a hat and randomly pick one out. Probably have as good a chance as any as picking the right date that way.

 

[DC3]

Put each of the next 24 months onto pieces of paper, put them into a hat and randomly pick one out. Probably have as good a chance as any as picking the right date that way.

Thanks. I believe that you have discovered the method that many AFFers are using for the “predictions”.

 

[HappyFlyerFamily]

Put each of the next 24 months onto pieces of paper, put them into a hat and randomly pick one out. Probably have as good a chance as any as picking the right date that way.

Some might say 24 months is not enough?!?!

 

[oznflfan]

SE Asia is a 50/50 shot, possibly even less. The reason I think its 50/50 is because Thailand I understand is going to open its doors this years to fully vaccinated people. There are also reports that Singapore is in talks with the UK for a travel corridor. If those happen, I imagine a bunch of other SE Asian countries will join up in creating corridors with most likely the UK, the US, Israel and the UAE, as well as other countries with high vaccination rates. Remember - the UK plans to have everyone vaccinated by about July/August, the US a little earlier and so forth.

The chances of the above happening sometime this year I would say is decent. If it does, you can forget SE Asia. Because these countries are in effect saying "we are ok with some level of cases if everyone is vaccinated and the chance of severe disease and death is very low. The Australian government right now is in the power of Brendan Murphy and conservative doctors and scientists who will only allow free movement once Covid-19 is eradicated.

Some may say that changes when all Australians are vaccinated - there is no proof whatsoever that will be the case. Moreover, vaccinations are on track to be finished mid-2022 at this rate at best.

Appreciate you point of view, and you will be right about many parts of SE Asia. Thailand for example are screaming out for tourism, rightly so considering how much of their economy is just that. Singapore need Changi & Singapore Airlines to fire as well, otherwise they are just a tiny SE Asian nation that could be 50% less relevant to the region.

Also agree on Brendan Murphy being conservative. Although, saw him a month or two ago on a media talk program being interviewed with Scomo, and Brendan looked sheepish everytime he spoke, looking for acknowledgement from Scomo all the time. Felt like if he said the wrong thing he would get told off after school.

Scomo is saying all the right things about reduction and change in risk. He has been Mr Invisible this week though, scared to say anything that the fairer sex will pounce on.

 

[kamchatsky]

Given we are now looking at 2023 for international travel ...... How about all the Krisflyer points that everyone has accumulated? They all have 3 years shelf life ..... Time to start burning them for toasters?

 

[Seat0B]

Time to update.

My original guess was the end of 2020 domestically, and end of 2021 internationally. Now I don't think we're going to see appreciable movement on either until the vaccination campaign is complete. The politicians are far too prone to panic, and who want to risk being caught by snap quarantine measures.

So, even though we've seen sporadic domestic aviation, my guess now is that it won't be unrestricted until early 2023. Internationally will be at least six months after completion of the program, so end of 2023, and perhaps even 2024.

I'll be happy to be totally wrong, but thus far I haven't seen anything that makes me confident in any of the governments involved.

nooooooooooo

 

[Kimpos]

Stay optimistic re the vaccine rollout; it was a complete shambolic mess here in the US at the start of the year and workplaces were talking about remote work persisting through 2021. By early March I didn't know of anyone in my circles that had not been vaccinated, it continues to get easier to access the vaccine and vaccination sites, with the result that my workplace is expecting a full return to the office by end April and I hear many other workplaces are talking June for a return. Things have started to move very quickly (yes, too quickly in some states) and I know of many people planning overseas travel; at least where I live (NC), the mood of optimism is growing with the increased vaccine rollout as people's personal risk is mitigated if not eliminated.

As an Aussie currently living in the US I have a vested interest in any news that could make it easier to get home to family (I am desperately clinging to any hope) so I was pleased to see Tudge mentioning some indicators of international travel. Putting aside the moral and ethical standpoints, the management of the pandemic has always been the balance between economics and public safety and it is hard to comprehend that the balance doesn't swing towards economics once the vaccination program picks up speed.

"Education Minister expects international students to return early 2022​

Education Minister Alan Tudge’s projected timeline on the return of international students is a hint on when Australia’s borders may reopen.
In a speech delivered to the Royal Melbourne Institute of Technology (RMIT) – the university most reliant on overseas students – Mr Tudge said Australia’s lucrative market for international students could be given a much-needed boost by February 2022.

“With the vaccine rollout under way, I am increasingly hopeful that student arrivals in larger numbers will occur by Semester 1 of next year,” Mr Tudge said.

Mr Tudge said he hoped the federal government would have a clearer idea later this year on when international borders will reopen.

“We are expecting more clarity on these issues by mid-year, at which time we should be more certain on border openings,” he said."

 

[DC3]

Given we are now looking at 2023 for international travel ......

2022

 

[jakeseven7]

We need to average double that to be all vaccinated by end of 2021. Doable.

Actually the not published target for a weekday is closer to 200,000

And it’s easily doable.

They just need to get the vaccine to the GPS.

 

[drron]

Given we are now looking at 2023 for international travel ...... How about all the Krisflyer points that everyone has accumulated? They all have 3 years shelf life ..... Time to start burning them for toasters?

Why the pessimism on KF?There are strong suggestions we could have a bubble with Singapore.A possibility it may be by July so we have award flights booked for August just in case.At the moment we can change the dates any time before June 30 and one more free change after that date.So not really worried.

 

[jase05]

France looks like a utter debacle


France to enter a third national lockdown for four weeks amid COVID-19 surge
French President Emmanuel Macron announced on Wednesday that the country will widen lockdown restrictions nationwide starting on Saturday, including school closures, a travel ban and a nightly curfew. The moves comes as the country struggles to contain a deadly new COVID-19 wave.

 

[Pushka]

France looks like a utter debacle


France to enter a third national lockdown for four weeks amid COVID-19 surge
French President Emmanuel Macron announced on Wednesday that the country will widen lockdown restrictions nationwide starting on Saturday, including school closures, a travel ban and a nightly curfew. The moves comes as the country struggles to contain a deadly new COVID-19 wave.

My nephew who has worked in France for over three years and who visits his wife and young family in Adelaide a couple of times a year (last year was a mess) resigned a few weeks ago and was serving out his notice. His region has been handling it well. He was due to travel to Paris in a couple of weeks to fly home. I just hope he doesn't get cancelled again. He's pretty much sold everything.

 

[jase05]

My nephew who has worked in France for over three years and who visits his wife and young family in Adelaide a couple of times a year (last year was a mess) resigned a few weeks ago and was serving out his notice. His region has been handling it well. He was due to travel to Paris in a couple of weeks to fly home. I just hope he doesn't get cancelled again. He's pretty much sold everything.

Further to the above

“We’re going to close nursery, elementary and high schools for three weeks,” he said, adding that a nationwide 7pm - 6am curfew will be kept in place.
“If we stay united in the coming weeks ... then we will see light at the end of the tunnel,” he said.
Mr Macron said restrictions already applying in the Paris region and others parts of north and eastern France will be extended to the whole country, for at least one month. Under these restrictions, people are allowed to go outside for leisure, but within a 10-kilometre radius from their homes — and without gathering. Also most non-essential shops are closed down.

 

[MEL_Traveller]

I am now predicting the government running an 'Aussies home for Christmas' election promise.

This aligns with the Education minister's suggestion that international students will be allowed back in from early 2022. And aligns with the 17 December date for any restrictions under the Biosecurity Act.

Of course as a sweetener, the government might ease quarantine from say early December. Showing how they have 'overdelivered'.

 

[OATEK]

Stay optimistic re the vaccine rollout; it was a complete shambolic mess here in the US at the start of the year and workplaces were talking about remote work persisting through 2021. By early March I didn't know of anyone in my circles that had not been vaccinated, it continues to get easier to access the vaccine and vaccination sites, with the result that my workplace is expecting a full return to the office by end April and I hear many other workplaces are talking June for a return. Things have started to move very quickly (yes, too quickly in some states) and I know of many people planning overseas travel; at least where I live (NC), the mood of optimism is growing with the increased vaccine rollout as people's personal risk is mitigated if not eliminated.

As an Aussie currently living in the US I have a vested interest in any news that could make it easier to get home to family (I am desperately clinging to any hope) so I was pleased to see Tudge mentioning some indicators of international travel. Putting aside the moral and ethical standpoints, the management of the pandemic has always been the balance between economics and public safety and it is hard to comprehend that the balance doesn't swing towards economics once the vaccination program picks up speed.

"Education Minister expects international students to return early 2022​

Education Minister Alan Tudge’s projected timeline on the return of international students is a hint on when Australia’s borders may reopen.
In a speech delivered to the Royal Melbourne Institute of Technology (RMIT) – the university most reliant on overseas students – Mr Tudge said Australia’s lucrative market for international students could be given a much-needed boost by February 2022.

“With the vaccine rollout under way, I am increasingly hopeful that student arrivals in larger numbers will occur by Semester 1 of next year,” Mr Tudge said.

Mr Tudge said he hoped the federal government would have a clearer idea later this year on when international borders will reopen.

“We are expecting more clarity on these issues by mid-year, at which time we should be more certain on border openings,” he said."

NSW is gearing up for the return of overseas students in 2022:

RFT Title: Expression of Interest - International Student Accommodation Quarantine program
Close Date & Time: 12-Apr-2021 5:00 PM
Agency: NSW Treasury
Category: Property management
Description: The return of international students as soon as possible is vital for retaining jobs in our education sector, and for the economy more broadly. International education is our second largest export, generating $14.6b in exports annually before the pandemic and supporting nearly 100,000 jobs in NSW. We estimate in 2021 we have already lost one third of our international student base. Returning international students must not displace returning Australian citizens and permanent residents and must not overload stretched Health and Police resources. A solution is required to identify a manageable, ongoing number of regular arrivals outside of the 3,000 per weekly cap that would sit alongside the current quarantine hotel model applying the same protocols and processes and led by NSW Police and Health. The NSW Government invites Purpose-Built Student Accommodation Providers based in Sydney CBD or Sydney CBD Fringe to submit an Expression of Interest with a view of forming a panel of eligible providers to house international students coming into NSW for the 14-day quarantine period......

 

[jb747]

I am now predicting the government running an 'Aussies home for Christmas' election promise.

Then this may be appropriate.
PreviewPreview3:03Dionne Warwick - Promises Promises (Scepter Records 1968)YouTube · RoundMidnightTV13 Feb 2012

 

[drron]

Well any thought of a BKK holiday this year has gone.A clarification of the Thai Government's plan.

This week Thailand’s cabinet has approved plans to reopen the country to foreign tourists, but in a gradual way. The current plan is as follows:

• As of April 1, 2021, the quarantine for visitors will be cut from 14 days to 10 days for all arrivals, with the exception of visitors from some African countries
• As “early as next month,” Chiang Mai, Koh Samui, Krabi, Pattaya, Phang Na, and coughet, will reopen to fully vaccinated tourists, though a seven day quarantine will still be required for those visitors
• As of July 1, 2021, vaccinated tourists will be able to travel to coughet with no quarantine requirement
• If this proves successful, as of October 1, 2021, the quarantine requirement will be scrapped for vaccinated tourists in Chiang Mai, Koh Samui, Krabi, Pattaya, Phang Na, and coughet
• As of some point in 2022, Thailand plans to lift all quarantine requirements for foreign visitors.

So no plans to even let vaccinated tourists into Bangkok without quarantine this year.We are hoping for April 2022.