Predictions of when international flights may resume/bans lifted

[MEL_Traveller]

Well forget Thailand for this year.Even if you have a vaccination certificate and a covid free certificate until the end of September you still have to quarantine for 7 days with a few freedoms.You also have to be tested once.If no CFC then tested twice even if vaccinated.



But even from October there are going to be other requirements at airports and tourist destinations.

Quarantine to be eased from April 1

The Centre for Covid-19 Situation Administration on Friday resolved to gradually relax Covid-19 controls for foreign arrivals beginning on April 1, shortening or lifting quarantine periods and increasing the range of activities allowed them.

www.bangkokpost.com

*hopefully* Koh Samui might get their exemption approved! They are hoping to allow quarantine-free travel from 1 Oct to those vaccinated. Travel to neighbouring islands also permitted. Presumably you have to fly in to Koh Samui airport (which isn't cheap even without the pandemic): Coronavirus: Thailand's Koh Samui island plans to open to vaccinated tourists in October

 

[drron]

The whole of Thailand is going to be Quarantine free to low risk countries from Oct 1 but there will be restrictions at Tourist centres.Not sure what those restrictions will be yet so I am putting things off until 2022 for Thailand.

 

[jakeseven7]

The whole of Thailand is going to be Quarantine free to low risk countries from Oct 1 but there will be restrictions at Tourist centres.Not sure what those restrictions will be yet so I am putting things off until 2022 for Thailand.

Suspect countries will rapidly move from low risk to higher risk the second they allow visitors from other countries the AU gov doesn't like the look of

 

[Gremlin]

So it looks like Victoria is still actively considering the Quarantine "village" outside AVV. Timelines of 6 months before it would be operational.

So if there's going to be that level of need onwards from 6 months for it to be feasible, that says to me that we're still a long way from unfettered international travel.

 

[jakeseven7]

So it looks like Victoria is still actively considering the Quarantine "village" outside AVV. Timelines of 6 months before it would be operational.

So if there's going to be that level of need onwards from 6 months for it to be feasible, that says to me that we're still a long way from unfettered international travel.

Yup and they are being informed by the Feds so....

I’m sure no one is surprised....

 

[mviy]

250 places a week in a quarantine “village” is nowhere near enough if quarantine requirements remain how they are now for travel rules to get relaxed but they have to start with something. Hopefully 250 a week will grow over time to a larger figure.

 

[jase05]

So it looks like Victoria is still actively considering the Quarantine "village" outside AVV.

Well Dan is very close to the Fox family so no surprise.
I did see they are restarting International arrivals on April 8th so it’s something I suppose

 

[mviy]

I guess restarting in the middle of the school holidays they’ll be hoping for no further outbreak till at least after the holidays finish.

To fully replace the quarantine hotels with the “village” they would need to increase the “village” capacity to several times the original capacity.

 

[Toula92122]

I don't understand why if all quarantine workers have been vaccinated why there is any limit at all on incoming passengers.

 

[mviy]

I don't understand why if all quarantine workers have been vaccinated why there is any limit at all on incoming passengers.

Because they clearly still don't have confidence that there won't be leaks into the community and only a fraction of the most vulnerable populations have been vaccinated. It will be interesting to see if anything changes once phase 1a and 1b are complete or failing that once 2a is complete. There needs to be a significant increase in the numbers allowed in each week for there to be any relaxation in requirements for who can leave.

 

[Must...Fly!]

250 places a week in a quarantine “village” is nowhere near enough if quarantine requirements remain how they are now for travel rules to get relaxed but they have to start with something. Hopefully 250 a week will grow over time to a larger figure.

I agree.

Unless we are talking about another scenario here, in which the vast majority of overseas arrivals come in quarantine free, or some variation of (e.g. stay at home until negative test, vaccine requirement prior to travel). And some arrivals - from high risk countries - must go in to managed quarantine.

Now, one would presume most of Africa, central Asia and the undeveloped Middle East to fall in to this category, for example. How exactly that would be managed in the context of the hub carriers through Asia and the Middle East is beyond me, though. Perhaps Project Sunrise from Qantas will be more important that we thought.

 

[HappyFlyerFamily]

I don't understand why if all quarantine workers have been vaccinated why there is any limit at all on incoming passengers.

There are a couple of points

Firstly we are probably about 15% of the way through second jab of Pfizer. Full effect takes place a couple of weeks after 2nd jab, so perhaps looking at four more weeks at least before entire quarantine workforce are fully vaccinated.

Second we don’t know how Pfizer deals with transmission/spread.

Third after the nebulizer incident, confidence is very low

Finally as stated above aged care would also be about 15% on 2nd jab

 

[mviy]

Perhaps Project Sunrise from Qantas will be more important that we thought.

It may, however QF doesn't expect those flights to start till 2024. Even if the government suddenly decided to subsidise it (doubtful - if they subsidised Project Sunrise, Virgin would demand a similar subsidy) or travel picks up much more quickly than expected and QF did a capital raise that may only bring that forward to 2023.

Of course the government could decide to subsidise QANTAS flying via Darwin or with an uncommercial low number of passengers on the 787 direct from SYD or MEL, but that would also be very expensive if done for any extended period of time.

 

[oznflfan]

Remember 15 months ago, when you could have had a cough week at work, then (at least I could) book annual leave at the last minute and go to Indonesia, or Cambodia, or Malaysia for a week with minimal cost and no hassle.

First trip back will be a bit trippy after 2020 and 2021, then it'll be out of your system knowing you can go back whenever you want. Back to normal.

These once a year small trips were the things that kept me going..................................

They'll come back next year in some way.

 

[Pom-DownUnder]

well after cancelling my trip in june I have just booked today to go to uk in december, cross your fingers for me

 

[jakeseven7]

well after cancelling my trip in june I have just booked today to go to uk in december, cross your fingers for me

2022? Yes I think you should be ok by then.

Although on the news tonight reports of a DOUBLE MUTANT strain appearing in India. Not joking.

Our state and fed governments will probably shut borders QUADRUPLY fast to compensate....

 

[hb13]

One of the issues remains the majority of the Australian population - a significant majority - want the borders to remain closed, which is an absolute shame. We can see two recent elections in QLD and PER, where the premiers shut the borders if they heard a mouse may have caught COVID to win in landslides. I can't remember a win for a premier in any state that Mark McGowan had in my living memory. It's ridiculous that so many people actually want to be isolated from the rest of world as well as the rest of their fellow Australians.

 

[MEL_Traveller]

One of the issues remains the majority of the Australian population - a significant majority - want the borders to remain closed, which is an absolute shame. We can see two recent elections in QLD and PER, where the premiers shut the borders if they heard a mouse may have caught COVID to win in landslides. I can't remember a win for a premier in any state that Mark McGowan had in my living memory. It's ridiculous that so many people actually want to be isolated from the rest of world as well as the rest of their fellow Australians.

That's understandable, pre vaccine. Post vaccine is potentially a very different story.

 

[jakeseven7]

One of the issues remains the majority of the Australian population - a significant majority - want the borders to remain closed, which is an absolute shame. We can see two recent elections in QLD and PER, where the premiers shut the borders if they heard a mouse may have caught COVID to win in landslides. I can't remember a win for a premier in any state that Mark McGowan had in my living memory. It's ridiculous that so many people actually want to be isolated from the rest of world as well as the rest of their fellow Australians.

Can you blame them they’ve been screeched at by state premiers promising death to everyone for the better part of a year. People were whipped into a state of fear.

 

[hb13]

Can you blame them they’ve been screeched at by state premiers promising death to everyone for the better part of a year. People were whipped into a state of fear.

I guess not, but the way it is going now, nothing will change. No one sees an end in sight, let's face it. Victoria is building a quarantine facility which means they are thinking at least another 18 - 24 months of this.