Predictions of when international flights may resume/bans lifted

[jakeseven7]

The most annoying thing I read was that the government did not buy I think it was Moderna or JNJ because neither company would negotiate on price.

Well JNJ now has blood clotting issues too (probably microscopic like AZ).... so probably another dent in the timeline for worldwide international travel returning.

 

[Kimpos]

That is simply not correct.

You are spot on. I have had a number of flights cancelled, and they were business class. When State governments stop flights, reduce caps, etc, it all adds to the difficulty of getting home. As an Australian who currently lives away from family, I am increasingly frustrated, angry and now full of despair at a homeland that cares so very little about what citizenship should actually provide.

Post automatically merged: Apr 12, 2021

I'm sure there are people stranded in countries where they are literally no flights, or no way out. These people deserve help from DFAT.

But it irks me that people in the US / UK / Europe whine about Australia being closed, when it seems easy to find a seat on SingaporeAir/United/ANA for $8000 (plus quarantine cost). All those airlines are selling seats for travel in the next 7 days.

I think for many people it's really cost / quarantine / don't have an overseas residency visa so they get stuck in Australia.

Whether you would take the risk of flying so far without being vaccinated - I suppose that's an individual choice.

Just because an airline is selling a fare, it doesn't automatically follow that it will actually land at all or with you on that flight

 

[hb13]

More proof that the vaccination program is an absolute shambles:

Scott Morrison scraps COVID-19 vaccination deadline plan

Scott Morrison has scrapped plans to announce a new deadline to vaccinate all Australians by the end of the year against COVID-19 in an admission over the “uncertainties” surrounding the program.

www.news.com.au

We have pretty much now lost any chance that hotel quarantine will be eased this year.

 

[PineappleSkip]

Vaccines generally have been hyped up as magic puddings that would cure a static problem. The punters wanted a magic pudding, and they wanted it ASAP, and the pollies wanted to show they're delivering one.

Meanwhile, the ASAP rollout of vaccines has and will continue to identify their side effects; the global bunfight over a limited supply continues; the virus has and will continue to mutate; and the more cases, the more mutations.

I wouldn't describe the efforts to contain the virus as shambles apart from the global bunfight over supply, but it's a valid comment about where the hype is. Having promised magic puddings, it seems the pollies can't quite shift into a more realistic long war meme. Not yet anyway.

cheers skip

 

[kamchatsky]

You're wildly out of touch and haven't considered that there is the extra cost of time. 2 weeks away from work quarantined in a hotel for many people is two weeks of salary as well.

This is clearly the problem - views like. Out of touch and completely unaware of the many different difficulties there are just to get back to your own country.

It all depends on your perspective of out of touch. Yes for the hundreds of thousands Aussies living overseas. But not for 20 million + Aussies living in Australia.

For most Australians living in Australia, they are very happy with what the government is doing, and pretty much now the life has gone back to normal, with the exception of travelling overseas. A lot of Aussies I know have never travelled overseas for variety of reasons.

Based on what I have seen in the comments section of those articles, this is some of the views of Aussies on expats:

- They have tons of money because they work overseas earning $$$;
- They complain that Australia doesn't have enough opportunities for them, small minded etc;
- They said everything in Australia is too expensive, they can live cheaply and live like a king in <enter country names>;
- They complain that Australia's taxes is too high. I can earn far more in another <sophisticated and low tax country>;
- They have dual citizenship and can get pensions in both countries. So they fly overseas and live there to ensure they get the double pension entitlements.
- They don't vote and pay tax in Australia anyway, why should we help them.
- Plus many more .....

I am sure not all expats have these views but the stereotypes have been set.

Ultimately it is the voters who will help shape the direction the Government is taking. Just look at recent state elections (QLD, WA) where the leaders are all very well rewarded for severe lockdowns and stop the virus. I cannot see this view being changed anytime soon.

 

[kamchatsky]

More proof that the vaccination program is an absolute shambles:

Scott Morrison scraps COVID-19 vaccination deadline plan

Scott Morrison has scrapped plans to announce a new deadline to vaccinate all Australians by the end of the year against COVID-19 in an admission over the “uncertainties” surrounding the program.

www.news.com.au

We have pretty much now lost any chance that hotel quarantine will be eased this year.

Yes it has been delayed but to be honest, for most Aussies it is life as usual. In fact, government will probably use this to encourage domestic travel.

It is a shame as I have tons of Krisflyer points with expiry date getting closer and closer, but it is what it is.

 

[trevella]

We have pretty much now lost any chance that hotel quarantine will be eased this year.

If it's any consolation, there never was a realistic prospect of that happening.

From what I'm hearing this might actually turn out to be a good thing in terms of the Australian government taking a somewhat more flexible approach to (some) cross-border movement...

 

[jakeseven7]

Yes it has been delayed but to be honest, for most Aussies it is life as usual. In fact, government will probably use this to encourage domestic travel.

It is a shame as I have tons of Krisflyer points with expiry date getting closer and closer, but it is what it is.

I've already started making a list of things to buy from the KrisFlyer shop if they don't extend.

But honestly, its archaic they still have their points expiry, seriously....

 

[jonboixxx]

But honestly, its archaic they still have their points expiry, seriously....

Hopefully, they will further extend points expiry in the 2nd half. In any case I've been recycling my 12 month expiry points back to longer VA trips.

 

[jakeseven7]

Hopefully, they will further extend points expiry in the 2nd half. In any case I've been recycling my 12 month expiry points back to longer VA trips.

Hopefully yes, or they just do away with their points expiry all together.

Back on topic:

Overseas travel won’t be back until 2024

Australians hoping for the full return of overseas travel will have to wait another three years for things to get back to normal, according to a pessimistic new forecast by economists.

www.news.com.au

 

[jonboixxx]

Deloitte Access Economics Business Outlook: Supply stumbles | Deloitte Australia

With the worst of the post-pandemic inflationary surge in the rear-view mirror, the Australian economy finds itself struggling under the burden of deepening structural challenges that threaten to further erode living standards unless urgently addressed.

www2.deloitte.com

Mainstream media has just picked up that Chris Richardson article from January (prior to AZ issues). I wonder what he thinks now. Hopefully he is wrong on on the 2023-24 call.

 

[Seat0B]

There's a federal election coming in 2022 and most voters only care about eliminating Covid.

I can't see the government relaxing quarantine rules and risking an outbreak. It's not even clear whether being vaccinated stops someone spreading the virus. Not to mention the people who will fake a vaccine certificate.

Any aussie can fly back to Australia now, as long as they pay >$5000 for the flight and another $3000 for quarantine ..

...and their airline does not cancel their flight repeatedly, leaving them with big flight credits but maxxed out credit cards and no actual cash to spend. Or the state government where they will arrive (looking at you Victoria) does not abandon international arrivals for extended periods to get their HQ program sorted - several times. Or they have enough leave to spend 2 weeks in quarantine on arrival here, and possibly another 2 weeks on return, depending where they are going to and the flight routing. And they don't lose their job and thus their right to be in a particular country (talking about employer sponsored visas here, not working visas) with 30 days to leave and need to get a flight out in 30 days or risk immigration detention (and in some countries further complications like closing and seizure of bank accounts etc etc). So no, not really the case that any aussie can fly back to Australia now.

 

[Seat0B]

You are spot on. I have had a number of flights cancelled, and they were business class. When State governments stop flights, reduce caps, etc, it all adds to the difficulty of getting home. As an Australian who currently lives away from family, I am increasingly frustrated, angry and now full of despair at a homeland that cares so very little about what citizenship should actually provide.

Post automatically merged: Apr 12, 2021

Just because an airline is selling a fare, it doesn't automatically follow that it will actually land at all or with you on that flight

Sending empathetic sympathy your way @Kimpos, as a person in Australia with family member living permanently overseas who I really really miss.

 

[MEL_Traveller]

Hopefully yes, or they just do away with their points expiry all together.

Back on topic:

Overseas travel won’t be back until 2024

Australians hoping for the full return of overseas travel will have to wait another three years for things to get back to normal, according to a pessimistic new forecast by economists.

www.news.com.au

The headline is a bit misleading... the premise is that travel won't return to 'normal' full pandemic levels until 2024. Which is fair enough. It takes a bit of a stretch - which news.com is inviting readers to do - to say there will be fully closed borders and HQ until 2024.

 

[dajop]

I wonder how long before we start seeing the NZ loophole adding significantly to the numbers of returning Australians? Or will it have the opposite effect (in that it might eliminate some of the visiting family traffic as some go the other way to visit instead?

For leisure travel the time and expense and risk might be a big enough barrier to people using it. But on the other hand, for a retiree couple who've been vaccinated who want to see their grandchildren, for example, it may actually be worthwhile ,and easier and cheaper for a couple of retirees with time on their hand to make the journey, than someone overseas to travel back to Australia costing money, and time (annual leave)...

 

[Seat0B]

I wonder how long before we start seeing the NZ loophole adding significantly to the numbers of returning Australians? Or will it have the opposite effect (in that it might eliminate some of the visiting family traffic as some go the other way to visit instead?

For leisure travel the time and expense and risk might be a big enough barrier to people using it. But on the other hand, for a retiree couple who've been vaccinated who want to see their grandchildren, for example, it may actually be worthwhile ,and easier and cheaper for a couple of retirees with time on their hand to make the journey, than someone overseas to travel back to Australia costing money, and time (annual leave)...

Retiree friends of mine from the gym, who will have a new grandchild in NZ by May, have booked to go to NZ for exactly this reason - although their situation only involves residents of Australia and Residents of NZ.

 

[Toula92122]

I think at some stage those who are not tied to having to be in an office on specified dates will just roll the dice and go for an extended period overseas and factor in the cost of quarantine on return. I'll likely be doing so.

 

[straitman]

I'm sure there are people stranded in countries where they are literally no flights, or no way out. These people deserve help from DFAT.

All Australian people who need it deserve help from DFAT. How many examples of their lack of compassion and/or help do you need.

1. One family we know (personally) have special needs kids. The kids aren't able to fly from London to Australia direct or continuously. When this was explained to DFAT they were dumped off the list.
2. Our daughter and family in Panama were quoted $US100,000 for four of them to fly home. DFAT response was take it or leave it.
3. Our daughter again was recently offered affordable flights home but had to leave within 7 days or not at all. They are fortunate that they have residency and income in Panama. They couldn't pack everything up that quickly so had to elect to stay.
4. Many people have arrived for their booked flights to be turned away because more people had been booked than the Australian Government had ultimately decided could fly that day.
5. etc.....

 

[mel-world]

I wonder how long before we start seeing the NZ loophole adding significantly to the numbers of returning Australians? Or will it have the opposite effect (in that it might eliminate some of the visiting family traffic as some go the other way to visit instead?

For leisure travel the time and expense and risk might be a big enough barrier to people using it. But on the other hand, for a retiree couple who've been vaccinated who want to see their grandchildren, for example, it may actually be worthwhile ,and easier and cheaper for a couple of retirees with time on their hand to make the journey, than someone overseas to travel back to Australia costing money, and time (annual leave)...

Not withstanding the above loophole, that I suggest will not exist for long and would not guarantee any easy way to get back to Australia, I do not think our economy can withstand shutting the borders until 2024. Even with a few exceptions like NZ and parts of Asia, the tourism and university sectors will not exist by then.

I do understand that many Australians do seem very happy to remain locked in indefinitely so the Government see this as an advantage at the moment but how long can this continue? As a vaccinated retiree, I would be happy to travel if only I could but not if it means jumping the queue and depriving a family wanting to return. I'm hoping there maybe a middle ground where vaccinated travellers can enter more easily and quarantine at home until a test result is negative. One would think that a vaccination 'certificate' could be added to the chip on your passport to minimise the risk fake certificates.

 

[mviy]

They will likely find a way to link the information from Medicare in MyGov somehow. The border force may be granted the rights to look this information up at the airport rather than relying on information supplied by a passenger. I’m sure they will figure something out.

The election will be sometime in the next 13 months. After that it will be potentially three years to another election so the electoral risks of opening up too soon won’t be nearly as big after the election.

I suspect we’ll have a better idea of what will happen when we see where the vaccine rollout is at in about 6 months time.