Predictions of when international flights may resume/bans lifted

[Pushka]

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Great...now we cannot even get the AZ vaccine under 50 if we choose to. So not even that option to facilitate early overseas travel

I don't think that will apply in the respiratory clinics and which are easy to get appointments. Most GP's have likely had the AZ vaccination anyway and many of them under 50. I know my GP DIL in her thirties had AZ. The AMA isn't always in alignment with other Govt bodies. I consider it more of a bargaining tool than direct medical advice.

 

[mviy]

Well I've been following this thread since the very beginning hoping to get some insight as to when international travel could resume in some (limited) way. But the theme of recent posts has become just too pessimistic - in fact much more pessimistic than many months ago - so I will sign off for now.

The Feds caving in to the states elimination strategy, the lack of any announcement of targets that need to be met to allow international travel rules to be relaxed and what they will relax to etc. Opening up international travel seems to be a low priority which is frustrating for those of us here who want to plan to head overseas ASAP.

By targets I mean e.g. when phase 1A and 1B are complete we can do this, or say when x% of the population is fully vaccinated we can do that to ease restrictions.

 

[Pushka]

......Opening up international travel seems to be a low priority which is frustrating for those of us here who want to plan to head overseas ASAP.

By targets I mean e.g. when phase 1A and 1B are complete we can do this, or say when x% of the population is fully vaccinated we can do that to ease restrictions.

Currently without any announcement like this, there is no incentive whatsoever for healthy younger (<60 years) adults to bother being vaccinated.

 

[jb747]

Currently without any announcement like this, there is no incentive whatsoever for healthy younger (<60 years) adults to bother being vaccinated.

Make it a requirement to have had the jab if you want to leave your home. Couple that with no available jabs, and you’ll have a nice Catch 22.

 

[Pushka]

Make it a requirement to have had the jab if you want to leave your home. Couple that with no available jabs, and you’ll have a nice Catch 22.

I’m thinking more along the lines of when say 60% vaccinated rather than individuals must be vaccinated. Or all of 1a and 1b vaccinated. Maybe 2a.

 

[Lynda2475]

I tend to think we might see some additions to the NZ bubble to make it a pacific bubble i.e. Cook Islands and perhaps Fiji, Samoa or Vanuatu before we see Asia added.

Whilst Singapore and Taiwan are doing really well, they are hubs for connections to problematic destinations in Europe and Africa, so that introduces complexity. Whereas its likely Cook Islands and Fiji would stay closed to other countries as they aren't usual places to transit from US or Europe and have large amount of tourism and trade from Aus and NZ.

I suspect 2021 will be limited to NZ; and 2022 is when we will see some places in Asia added only if we are all vaccinated. As much as i dread the thought, I think it will now be 2023 before we are all able to book a holiday to the US or Europe and likely 2024 for Africa or Latin America.

 

[jonboixxx]

Currently without any announcement like this, there is no incentive whatsoever for healthy younger (<60 years) adults to bother being vaccinated.

For some, there is still an element of fear (seeking protection in the case of further breakouts). Another motivator is the benevolence that is typical of our other vaccination programs, where recipients understand that herd immunity affords the community protection.
I just hope that enough look past the negativity surrounding the rollout and get vaccinated, otherwise we'll still be talking about it in 2 years time.

 

[mel-world]

I agree that this thread is getting quite pessimistic, so much so that I think we will have to rename this site 'AIF - Australian Infrequent Flyer'

 

[oznflfan]

I agree that this thread is getting quite pessimistic, so much so that I think we will have to rename this site 'AIF - Australian Infrequent Flyer'

Or 'ANF - Australian Non Flyer'.

But I still tend to be glass half full. Reasonably (Limitations to several countries/continents) Open Skies mid 2022.

 

[DC3]

I feel like I’m on a rudderless ship at sea.

 

[oznflfan]

I feel like I’m on a rudderless ship at sea.

Or maybe a DC3 with no tail.

 

[jakeseven7]

I agree that this thread is getting quite pessimistic, so much so that I think we will have to rename this site 'AIF - Australian Infrequent Flyer'

I’ve never flown more than in 2020 (domestically of course

I do understand though for many they feel it is too risky to chance a domestic trip.

International I don’t really care about anymore apart from the poor people stranded overseas - that is disgusting.

 

[Cappuccino99]

I am getting more depressed by the day. Although I'm not an Australian citizen, I hold NZ and British passports, I could probably get to the UK but the risk to get back makes it almost impossible.

I missed my father's funeral in the UK in April last year and looks like I'll miss his stone unveiling too as my family won't wait till 2024 to do something that should be done 12 months after his funeral according to our religious beliefs.

As for missing my children and grandchildren, video chats just don't replace physical hugs

If I didn't have my little rescue dog by my side, I'd be in a really bad place mentally.

 

[oznflfan]

I am getting more depressed by the day. Although I'm not an Australian citizen, I hold NZ and British passports, I could probably get to the UK but the risk to get back makes it almost impossible.

I missed my father's funeral in the UK in April last year and looks like I'll miss his stone unveiling too as my family won't wait till 2024 to do something that should be done 12 months after his funeral according to our religious beliefs.

As for missing my children and grandchildren, video chats just don't replace physical hugs

If I didn't have my little rescue dog by my side, I'd be in a really bad place mentally.

UK going great guns vaccinating, and if we pull our finger out and get our task mostly completed by years end, you very well may get back unimpeded before April next year.

 

[DC3]

Or maybe a DC3 with no tail.

And the Captain and crew have bailed out, leaving the passengers to wait it out.

 

[ayushamity]

if we pull our finger out and get our task mostly completed by years end,

The gov says extra Pfizer to replace AZ will come October this year. So really means December.

Then 6 months of vaccinations and will take until mid 2022 to complete

 

[trevella]

Slowly, slowly...

“Vaccination alone is no guarantee that you can open up, and this is a discussion I had with Professor (Brendan) Murphy in just the last 24 hours, that if the whole country was vaccinated, you couldn’t just open up the borders,” Mr Hunt said.

 

[MEL_Traveller]

Slowly, slowly...

“Vaccination alone is no guarantee that you can open up, and this is a discussion I had with Professor (Brendan) Murphy in just the last 24 hours, that if the whole country was vaccinated, you couldn’t just open up the borders,” Mr Hunt said.

Hmmm That's been Professor Murphy's agenda all along. Ban travel.

However, what's sorely needed is a set of definitions. What does 'open up' mean? Does it mean full unrestricted travel with no quarantine? Or does it mean we can't even travel with home quarantine? (a total ban)

Politicians and investment analysts are using a variety of definitions to talk about travel. The Deloitte article for example deems travel won't be back to normal until it is full and unrestricted with no quarantine whatsoever. That's probably not likely until 2024. But introduce full vaccination and some sort of home quarantine and the timeline could move forward to Jan 2022.

 

[mviy]

Once I'm vaccinated I'm going to be considering my options to travel, considering loopholes if need be. They can't keep things as restrictive as they are now forever. Quarantine is O.K. provided they let you come home when you want to do the quarantine.

What we need is for them to announce at least in basic detail a plan to gradually ease restrictions when certain targets are met.

 

[MEL_Traveller]

Once I'm vaccinated I'm going to be considering my options to travel, considering loopholes if need be. They can't keep things as restrictive as they are now forever. Quarantine is O.K. provided they let you come home when you want to do the quarantine.

What we need is for them to announce at least in basic detail a plan to gradually ease restrictions when certain targets are met.

I was having a bit of a think about the potential loopholes. If we were using NZ as the transit to travel to say Europe, one way NZ could restrict that would be to limit the booking of hotel quarantine to NZ residents and PR. So as an Aussie you wouldn't be able to come back that way. You'd need to fly directly back to Australia, and could face penalties from the Aussie government for breaching the BioSecurity Act (if they find a way to do that).

I'm not sure of Singapore's quarantine system... for example whether you need to book in advance. But they could also potentially do the same thing.