Predictions of when international flights may resume/bans lifted

[dajop]

I would be happy to travel if only I could but not if it means jumping the queue and depriving a family wanting to return. I'm hoping there maybe a middle ground where vaccinated travellers can enter more easily and quarantine at home until a test result is negative.

It all depends where you are returning from, which underlines what a mess this whole thing is.

This week I can see about 12 seats in PER and at least 27 seats in MEL from SIN on Scoot!.

But some of these are short notice now ... and also you are apparently required to submit an online "Australian Travel Declaration" at least 72 hours prior to departure, so if something comes available with short notice (but still long enough to get a test), it would seem patently ridiculous to not allow people who want to travel to do so based on some bureaucratic nonsense when supply of seats is so limited (by way of contrast when traveling into Singapore, you are required to complete an online declaration no more than 72 hours prior to departure).

 

[Seat0B]

They will likely find a way to link the information from Medicare in MyGov somehow. The border force may be granted the rights to look this information up at the airport rather than relying on information supplied by a passenger. I’m sure they will figure something out.

The election will be sometime in the next 13 months. After that it will be potentially three years to another election so the electoral risks of opening up too soon won’t be nearly as big after the election.

I suspect we’ll have a better idea of what will happen when we see where the vaccine rollout is at in about 6 months time.

I'm sure you are right, but "after the next election" is realistically another 12 months+ from now, along with admin time to make arrangements happen, and I just feel miserable at the thought of waiting that long.

 

[MEL_Traveller]

All Australian people who need it deserve help from DFAT. How many examples of their lack of compassion and/or help do you need.

1. One family we know (personally) have special needs kids. The kids aren't able to fly from London to Australia direct or continuously. When this was explained to DFAT they were dumped off the list.

I’m not sure what the solution for your friends in point 1 might be? Perhaps DFAT could arrange expedited departures and arrivals clearance in London and Darwin? That would possibly bring the total journey time down to something similar to a stopover in Singapore.

I think the key word in your post is people who 'need' assistance. What if that 'need' is completely avoidable?

 

[mviy]

All Australian people who need it deserve help from DFAT. How many examples of their lack of compassion and/or help do you need.

1. One family we know (personally) have special needs kids. The kids aren't able to fly from London to Australia direct or continuously. When this was explained to DFAT they were dumped off the list.

I understand that's a difficult situation but if there's no intermediate country willing to take them in for a week or a few weeks there's not much DFAT's going to be able to do about that one. At the moment transit points want people to be immediately connecting on to their final destination country.

I'm sure you are right, but "after the next election" is realistically another 12 months+ from now, along with admin time to make arrangements happen, and I just feel miserable at the thought of waiting that long.

Well I think the worst case scenario (assuming no new strain that causes large numbers of hospitalisation or death in vaccinated population) is that a plan gets announced after the election. At that point the economic problems of staying isolated indefinitely will likely outweigh short term political backlash that may be largely forgotten in 3 years.

I'm hoping there maybe a middle ground where vaccinated travellers can enter more easily and quarantine at home until a test result is negative.

Unless they do something to reduce/eliminate the time spent in hotel quarantine they're not going to be able to ease travel restrictions much. So far the authorities have shown a complete lack of willingness to expand the hotel quarantine capacity to say 10x what it is now to facilitate more travel. They have had plenty of time to plan to do so safely but have chosen not to do so.

 

[oznflfan]

Well I think the worst case scenario (assuming no new strain that causes large numbers of hospitalisation or death in vaccinated population) is that a plan gets announced after the election. At that point the economic problems of staying isolated indefinitely will likely outweigh short term political backlash that may be largely forgotten in 3 years.

I've accepted no travel this year. Wouldn't travel without being fully vaccinated anyway, and as I'm 2B, won't be fully vaccinated until maybe March 2022.

'Plans' will be selling point for the election, just not sure a positive or a negative right now.

I'm expecting election May 2022, as long as we can travel oversea's almost immediately after that I'm OK.

 

[burmans]

I'll just leave this here for discussion.

Overseas travel to remain restricted until 2024, expert predicts

International travel is likely to remain curtailed for Australians until 2024, according to a new report.

thenewdaily.com.au

 

[MEL_Traveller]

I'll just leave this here for discussion.

Overseas travel to remain restricted until 2024, expert predicts

International travel is likely to remain curtailed for Australians until 2024, according to a new report.

thenewdaily.com.au

Yeah... discussed upthread. That's an analysis from a business (profit) perspective, forecasting full travel pre-pandemic levels unlikely until 2024. Quarantine may still be required, but surely of the 'home variety' once everyone is vaccinated! (Some exception is coming from high risk areas with new variants perhaps?)

 

[oznflfan]

Yeah... discussed upthread. That's an analysis from a business (profit) perspective, forecasting full travel pre-pandemic levels unlikely until 2024. Quarantine may still be required, but surely of the 'home variety' once everyone is vaccinated! (Some exception is coming from high risk areas with new variants perhaps?)

Don't need normal pre COVID travel conditions, but I do draw the line at face masks. Not going oversea's to a country (let's say Singapore as one of the first to open) if I have to wear a face mask everywhere in said country.

 

[dajop]

Don't need normal pre COVID travel conditions, but I do draw the line at face masks. Not going oversea's to a country (let's say Singapore as one of the first to open) if I have to wear a face mask everywhere in said country.

Well you certainly won't be visiting Singapore any time soon. That's for sure, even if a bubble opens up, the government and population expect visitors to wear face masks and see it as important part of the armory for allowing more open travel and economy, whilst preventing outbreaks in such a densely populated place.

 

[stryker]

a plan gets announced after the election.

Doesn't it depend on who wins it, or have you already decided?

 

[straitman]

I understand that's a difficult situation but if there's no intermediate country willing to take them in for a week or a few weeks there's not much DFAT's going to be able to do about that one. At the moment transit points want people to be immediately connecting on to their final destination country.

The people in question had the intermediate stop sorted. It was DFAT who unceremoniously cancelled their trip.

 

[mviy]

Doesn't it depend on who wins it, or have you already decided?

No, I think that it's the worst case scenario regardless of that result, assuming that no new strain emerges that causes a large number of hospitalisations or even deaths in the vaccinated population.

The best case scenario is that we're back travelling again before the election albeit with some restrictions that mean far fewer are willing to do it than there normally would be.

A lot depends on the pace of the rollout and I don't think anyone can honestly say that they know for certain how that will be looking in say six months time.

 

[MEL_Traveller]

The people in question had the intermediate stop sorted. It was DFAT who unceremoniously cancelled their trip.

Just out of interest, if they had the flights and intermediate stop arranged how did DFAT get involved to disrupt the trip?

 

[hb13]

I've accepted no travel this year. Wouldn't travel without being fully vaccinated anyway, and as I'm 2B, won't be fully vaccinated until maybe March 2022.

'Plans' will be selling point for the election, just not sure a positive or a negative right now.

I'm expecting election May 2022, as long as we can travel oversea's almost immediately after that I'm OK.

A handful of Asian countries may open up soon after the 2022 election - at best. I think the situation with borders now will remain the same pretty much till at least the end of 2022, with the exception of NZ and maybe 3-5 other countries.

 

[bulldog88]

Quarantine-free flights from Singapore/Thailand/Japan/HK would be nice, but it just sounds too risky (especially before the election). Those are big countries, big airports, different laws and cultures around vaccines and testing. They would need a way to eliminate the risk of transit passengers infecting "green zone" passengers at the overseas airport.

As long as the Australian approach remains "Covid elimination", I think NZ is all we get, no matter what the Government/Qantas spruik

 

[pn1]

The PM indicated tonight that these restrictions will be in place for at least 6 months so realistically I don’t see any regular International travel until October 1st at best unfortunately

An interesting, but rather brief, item on Channel 7 news in Melbourne on 12 April 2021 suggested overseas travel and holidays for everyday Australians wouldn't resume until 2024; thoughts?

Paul in Melbourne

 

[luxury-lizard]

Well I've been following this thread since the very beginning hoping to get some insight as to when international travel could resume in some (limited) way. But the theme of recent posts has become just too pessimistic - in fact much more pessimistic than many months ago - so I will sign off for now.

 

[MEL_Traveller]

An interesting, but rather brief, item on Channel 7 news in Melbourne on 12 April 2021 suggested overseas travel and holidays for everyday Australians wouldn't resume until 2024; thoughts?

Paul in Melbourne

Story based on the article mentioned above in post 5467.

 

[ayushamity]

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www.dailytelegraph.com.au

Great...now we cannot even get the AZ vaccine under 50 if we choose to. So not even that option to facilitate early overseas travel

 

[kpc]

Well I've been following this thread since the very beginning hoping to get some insight as to when international travel could resume in some (limited) way. But the theme of recent posts has become just too pessimistic - in fact much more pessimistic than many months ago - so I will sign off for now.

I guess it is because the situation does seem more pessimistic.....poor vaccine rollout in Oz, reluctance to have vaccine here and OS, emergence of mutations OS with 3rd and 4th waves, thousands of Aussies OS still trying to get home etc etc....I use to travel OS 5-6x per year for the last 15 years so I'm equally frustrated and sad about the lack of OS travel.