Predictions of when international flights may resume/bans lifted

[mviy]

I was having a bit of a think about the potential loopholes. If we were using NZ as the transit to travel to say Europe, one way NZ could restrict that would be to limit the booking of hotel quarantine to NZ residents and PR. So as an Aussie you wouldn't be able to come back that way. You'd need to fly directly back to Australia, and could face penalties from the Aussie government for breaching the BioSecurity Act (if they find a way to do that).

You definitely wouldn't be able to come back via NZ even now if you're not a NZ citizen or PR. If the Australian government announces penalties for using a loophole that would obviously factor into a decision as to whether to travel whilst we wait for borders to reopen. I think they would only think about imposing penalties if there were significant numbers using loopholes that they can't close to leave and then coming home whilst restrictions remain in place taking quarantine spots away from those struggling to get an economy seat on flights.

I've never been to NZ and would like to get there someday, but obviously a loophole going via e.g. Singapore would be more convenient.

 

[openseat]

Slowly, slowly...

“Vaccination alone is no guarantee that you can open up, and this is a discussion I had with Professor (Brendan) Murphy in just the last 24 hours, that if the whole country was vaccinated, you couldn’t just open up the borders,” Mr Hunt said.

So what does this mean then... we never open up? I

Life can't be lived like this, unless we want to become another hermit kingdom like NK. Risk is to be managed, not eliminated. Someone will have to put the unelected chief health officers back in their boxes.

 

[Seat0B]

Currently without any announcement like this, there is no incentive whatsoever for healthy younger (<60 years) adults to bother being vaccinated.

my thoughts exactly, and as I am a healthy 60, with almost no likelihood of getting COVID, that is where I have ended up, despite being initially enthusiastic about getting the vaccine. Now I don't really feel the incentive, and also feel like the (even ridiculously low) risk of blood clots is higher than the risk of COVID.

 

[DC3]

I wouldn’t worry too much about loopholes that could be used in the future. They are easily closed if it looks as though too many of us can come and go as we choose.

 

[oznflfan]

So what does this mean then... we never open up? I

Life can't be lived like this, unless we want to become another hermit kingdom like NK. Risk is to be managed, not eliminated. Someone will have to put the unelected chief health officers back in their boxes.

If everyone is vaccinated by say early to mid 2022, and only anti vaxxers (dont like the word but suits this statement) steadfastly refuse, does it matter if COVID comes in? We have done everything we can to keep us all safe.

I'd even be fine with traffic light system like smartraveller given green and yellow good to go no quarantine (say UK, USA, most of SE Asia), amber and red either banned or pre-booked and paid HQ on return (say India and Brazil).

 

[MEL_Traveller]

If everyone is vaccinated by say early to mid 2022, and only anti vaxxers (dont like the word but suits this statement) steadfastly refuse, does it matter if COVID comes in? We have done everything we can to keep us all safe.

That's what the PM was alluding too earlier this year - that come October (the original timeline) - the risk profile 'would change' and border closures no longer needed. It would then be like the flu vaccine - those choosing to have it would have it. Those choosing not to would accept the risk. That does however potentially put pressure on our hospital system and staff.

 

[mviy]

I would think there would have to be some kind of middle ground to test the waters of still requiring some quarantine and perhaps still some limits on who can enter and leave at some point such as making some effort to clear the backlog of those stuck overseas trying to get home before letting lots of people desperate to travel leave.

I would be very surprised if we suddenly went from current restrictions straight to everyone who has been vaccinated and wants to can travel.

The idea as far as I understand it with full vaccination is that we reach herd immunity where even if COVID testing and any quarantine measures are managed completely incompetently the virus should die out again quickly and any hospitalisations should be of a manageable quantity because every person on average that has COVID passes it on to less than one other person on average. If we manage it competently the transmission rates would be even lower without needing to do any lockdowns or bans on travel for people other than close contacts of someone infected.

The big risk is that there's a mutation that emerges that still causes hospitalisation in large numbers and death in the vaccinated population.

 

[dajop]

I was having a bit of a think about the potential loopholes. If we were using NZ as the transit to travel to say Europe, one way NZ could restrict that would be to limit the booking of hotel quarantine to NZ residents and PR. So as an Aussie you wouldn't be able to come back that way. You'd need to fly directly back to Australia, and could face penalties from the Aussie government for breaching the BioSecurity Act (if they find a way to do that).

I'm not sure of Singapore's quarantine system... for example whether you need to book in advance. But they could also potentially do the same thing.

Both countries already only allow those with permission to enter into their hotel quarantine systems (citizens or those with residency or familial ties). Australians without residency won't be allowed to do quarantine in either country.

I am not convinced that the legislative framework behind the BioSecurity Determination has jurisdiction or scope to prevent Australians departing NZ for another country. The two relevant documents are:

Overseas Travel Ban Emergency Requirements:
Biosecurity (Human Biosecurity Emergency) (Human Coronavirus with Pandemic Potential) (Overseas Travel Ban Emergency Requirements) Determination 2020

with unincorporated amendment covering NZ:

Biosecurity (Human Biosecurity Emergency) (Human Coronavirus with Pandemic Potential) (Overseas Travel Ban Emergency Requirements) Amendment (No. 1) Determination 2021

It provides an exemption to leave Australia if they are:
"a person who is travelling directly to New Zealand" (and they've been in Australia for last 14 days or more)

There is also a guidance document that prohibits transiting NZ, but say spending 5 days in NZ and then moving on to elsewhere, is that considered transit? I don't know. Anyway it's a brave person that would take this risk due to constraints and cost of getting back.

 

[Pom-DownUnder]

Slowly, slowly...

“Vaccination alone is no guarantee that you can open up, and this is a discussion I had with Professor (Brendan) Murphy in just the last 24 hours, that if the whole country was vaccinated, you couldn’t just open up the borders,” Mr Hunt said.

This more than anything in this whole debacle is what really boils my blood.

once everyone has or has been offered the vaccine, (put in emphasis so people dont misread it) Then you have to open up, to not do so is straight up abusive, not to mention complete and utter cowardice.

A virus with 2% death rate
A vaccine with 90%+ coverage
A 1 per million blood clotting mortality rate

and these absolute moral cowards STILL want people to hide in their homes after the vaccine has gone through the country. Its just absolutely disgusting.

I thought this was bloody frontier country, i thought this was the land of Mick Dundee, Hard Yakka and a fair shake of some bloody saucebottle.

"there is a 0.00000000000000000000000000000000001% chance that someone might trip and fall so we have decided to get rid of steps across the whole country"

These people need to have an absolute word with themselves, they arent living in the real world, chugging down ibuprofen / paracetamol / contraceptive pills and living in some absolutely dreamworld where these things have less risk than the AZ Vaccine.

Flatten the Curve
Stop Overwhelming the Healthcare Systems
Minimise the Spread
Zero New Community Transmission
Bend Over and Shut Up

 

[trevella]

That's what the PM was alluding too earlier this year - that come October (the original timeline) - the risk profile 'would change' and border closures no longer needed.

That’s your characterisation, not what he actually said. They’ve always been factoring in a buffer after the vaccination rollout is complete... that is at least likely to be shorter the later it is given that Australia will once again be able to observe what happens elsewhere first.

 

[tgh]

Wow P-d-u.. tell us what you really think...

A virus with 2% death rate..but is that it??

and there is the rub… we have no idea what will happen next week let alone next year...
In the face of the vaccination wave, the virus may turn to water and just fade away, or it may swallow a spoonful of cement, harden up , and utilise the 700k per day current ww infection rate (and climbing steeply) to morph into something truly terrible.

 

[Pom-DownUnder]

Wow P-d-u.. tell us what you really think...

A virus with 2% death rate..but is that it??

and there is the rub… we have no idea what will happen next week let alone next year...
In the face of the vaccination wave, the virus may turn to water and just fade away, or it may swallow a spoonful of cement, harden up , and utilise the 700k per day current ww infection rate (and climbing steeply) to morph into something truly terrible.

staying away from magical fantasy land as per my post

yes.

 

[MEL_Traveller]

That’s your characterisation, not what he actually said. They’ve always been factoring in a buffer after the vaccination rollout is complete... that is at least likely to be shorter the later it is given that Australia will once again be able to observe what happens elsewhere first.

The PM's press conference transcript from 5 February has the PM indicating that in three months, once the vaccine is starting to be be rolled out, the risk will change: Press Conference - Australian Parliament House, ACT | Prime Minister of Australia

A lot has changed

 

[k_sheep]

Don't need normal pre COVID travel conditions, but I do draw the line at face masks. Not going oversea's to a country (let's say Singapore as one of the first to open) if I have to wear a face mask everywhere in said country.

I'm exactly the opposite. I'm so tired of getting a cold after almost every long haul flight. I can't wait for it to be socially acceptable to wear a mask on planes as the norm!

 

[kpc]

Just when we thought widespread vaccination will be the key to international borders opening....no wonder why a lot of us are getting more and more pessimistic about OS travel in the next 12-24 months!

International borders might not open even if whole country is vaccinated: Greg Hunt

The Health Minister suggested Australia’s international border closures could stay in place even if the entire population had been vaccinated against COVID-19.

www.smh.com.au

 

[Pom-DownUnder]

Just another dart in the magical bubble of dream world

CDC and FDA recommend US pause use of Johnson & Johnson's Covid-19 vaccine over blood clot concerns

The US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention and the US Food and Drug Administration are recommending that the United States pause the use of Johnson & Johnson's Covid-19 vaccine over six reported US cases of a "rare and severe" type of blood clot.

edition.cnn.com

again about 1 case per million, this number is a totally acceptable cost of doing business, if you disagree with that then make a petition to stop all of the following:

scuba diving
sky diving
hand gliding
bungee jumping
contraceptive pill
andddddddddd about 7000 other drugs that people take daily

 

[Pushka]

Just when we thought widespread vaccination will be the key to international borders opening....no wonder why a lot of us are getting more and more pessimistic about OS travel in the next 12-24 months!

International borders might not open even if whole country is vaccinated: Greg Hunt

The Health Minister suggested Australia’s international border closures could stay in place even if the entire population had been vaccinated against COVID-19.

www.smh.com.au

And that is a reason why younger people will query what is the point of being vaccinated. If borders remain closed then there is no risk to them from catching it so why bother.

 

[Pom-DownUnder]

A = Covid is so horrendously bad its murdering half the world like god bless you
B = Not giving anyone that wants it a vaccine that will kill 1 in a million (literally) but protects against A

A + B =/= an abundance of caution

 

[MEL_Traveller]

Just another dart in the magical bubble of dream world

CDC and FDA recommend US pause use of Johnson & Johnson's Covid-19 vaccine over blood clot concerns

The US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention and the US Food and Drug Administration are recommending that the United States pause the use of Johnson & Johnson's Covid-19 vaccine over six reported US cases of a "rare and severe" type of blood clot.

edition.cnn.com

again about 1 case per million, this number is a totally acceptable cost of doing business, if you disagree with that then make a petition to stop all of the following:

scuba diving
sky diving
hand gliding
bungee jumping
contraceptive pill
andddddddddd about 7000 other drugs that people take daily

Fatal accidents in each of those are usually investigated.

It's not unheard of to pause a program/product while investigation takes place.

Unpause the program at a time when people can make an informed choice on whether to proceed.

 

[lovestotravel]

Just when we thought widespread vaccination will be the key to international borders opening....no wonder why a lot of us are getting more and more pessimistic about OS travel in the next 12-24 months!

International borders might not open even if whole country is vaccinated: Greg Hunt

The Health Minister suggested Australia’s international border closures could stay in place even if the entire population had been vaccinated against COVID-19.

www.smh.com.au

We won't be travelling OS until Jan 2023 at the earliest