Predictions of when international flights may resume/bans lifted

[Laf2610]

But it is a privilege. And many many Australians outside our echo chamber see it this way too. Not a fundamental right.

If you're trying to understand why the government - and I might add a government of the political persuasion that tends to favour both privilege and freedom - is moving very slowly on opening borders, it might well be worthwhile considering what either the polls or the John Howard shopping mall tests are saying about the views of the (supposed) "average Aussie" (not that I've ever met an "average Aussie", all are exceptional in some way good or bad ). Otherwise there would be more movement and more signals from the government about "opening up".

5 Jetstar 787's, 2 Garuda A330's and probably 10 A320's a day ... @ 85% load factor is only 1.2m people. Take out a big chunk that travel more than once a year, you might get back to 0.8m unique individuals a year travelling to Bali. 3% of the population. What about the other 97%?

If we were living in Nth Korea, or 1985 East Germany then International travel is certainly a privilege. In a free democratic society we have a choice of spending a few 000 going to Bali, or a bit more going to Singapore, Europe or wherever.. that decision is based on our financial position personally and not really anybody else’s business. Alternatively we can spend about the same to go to Sydney, Melbourne, cairns or wherever domestically. In usual times, I work in PNG, am away from home and family a lot and see a holiday to wherever we want to go as a definite fundamental right based on our working for our resources and deciding what to do with our finances ourselves without a domestic guilt trip being applied.

 

[Lynda2475]

And Feds have missed a huge opportunity for data gathering to support home quarantine as apparently aren't asking arrivals if they have been vaccinated (and what type) and then not checking who does and doesn't go on to develop Covid.

"Brendan Murphy, the secretary of the federal health department, said officials are not even keeping records of Australians who’ve been vaccinated going through hotel quarantine and whether or not they develop COVID-19."

"Some states, including NSW, have begun collating the data on their own accord, despite having not being directed from their federal counterparts."

Federal Health not asking for vaccination status of returning Australians

Federal health authorities are not keeping any records of how many Australians returning from overseas have been vaccinated and whether they develop COVID-19.

www.smh.com.au

 

[jakeseven7]

Trial allowing vaccinated Australians to travel overseas could start in six weeks​

Australians who have been vaccinated against Covid would be able to leave the country and return with less strict quarantine requirements under a plan that could be trialled within six weeks.

The federal health minister, Greg Hunt, revealed the proposal in the Coalition party room on Tuesday following a question from Liberal MP Jason Falinski, who had asked whether vaccination could see people exempted from outbound and inbound travel restrictions.

Trial allowing vaccinated Australians to travel overseas could start in six weeks

Pilot program for immunised people to leave and return under relaxed restrictions could begin soon, Greg Hunt tells colleagues

www.theguardian.com

 

[Eastwick20]

I'll echo what many have said here, Keeping borders closed is a political vote winner

We here who come to AFF either work in the travel industry ( me ) travel for our jobs or have a passion to travel so are eager to see a safe but sensible and realistic plan to allow international travel

But unless you work in Travel or Tourism the vast of majority of Australians either couldn't care less if the borders are closed because they either don't travel internationally or they are scared.
The media is full of UK strain, Indian strain, Vietnam strain and so on.

In the heads of the vast majority of the public those cases come from someone landing at an Australian Airport and should be stopped at all costs.

I don't know how many times I've overhead people say ' do not allow anyone to enter period"
We on AFF know that is unrealistic but to the masses who have been told to be very fearful of the outside world this seems absolutely justified

I would also argue that your average Aussie who can afford to take a long haul holiday overseas once or twice a year ( i.e to Europe / USA ) are not worried about the price of accommodation and a meal and drinks at a restaurant in Queensland and see the closed international border as a mild inconvenience and happy enough to de camp to a nice 4 - 5 star option within the country
Yes the Bali / Thailand market are different but friends of mine in that category have been quite happy to take a cheap local road trip or spend the money on something else.
Yes this situation is absolutely devastating to people with family they cant see any time soon.

But for now at least 80 percent of the Australian population seem more then happy with the status quo, Why would any government with a looming election risk votes by promoting a re opening strategy

At this point a closed Australia would seem to almost guarantee's an election win, state or federal.

Australia made the right decision over the last 14 months with the border closure and it ultimately saved us a world of pain ( see the rest of the world ) But while none of us expected to be taking off on a One World Explorer fare on August the 10th we just want some hope and a plan, any plan.

As the vaccine roll out has shown, We don't do those very well.

 

[kpc]

But for now at least 80 percent of the Australian population seem more then happy with the status quo, Why would any government with a looming election risk votes by promoting a re opening strategy

At this point a closed Australia would seem to almost guarantee's an election win, state or federal.

This

 

[oznflfan]

I'll echo what many have said here, Keeping borders closed is a political vote winner

We here who come to AFF either work in the travel industry ( me ) travel for our jobs or have a passion to travel so are eager to see a safe but sensible and realistic plan to allow international travel

But unless you work in Travel or Tourism the vast of majority of Australians either couldn't care less if the borders are closed because they either don't travel internationally or they are scared.
The media is full of UK strain, Indian strain, Vietnam strain and so on.

In the heads of the vast majority of the public those cases come from someone landing at an Australian Airport and should be stopped at all costs.

I don't know how many times I've overhead people say ' do not allow anyone to enter period"
We on AFF know that is unrealistic but to the masses who have been told to be very fearful of the outside world this seems absolutely justified

I would also argue that your average Aussie who can afford to take a long haul holiday overseas once or twice a year ( i.e to Europe / USA ) are not worried about the price of accommodation and a meal and drinks at a restaurant in Queensland and see the closed international border as a mild inconvenience and happy enough to de camp to a nice 4 - 5 star option within the country
Yes the Bali / Thailand market are different but friends of mine in that category have been quite happy to take a cheap local road trip or spend the money on something else.
Yes this situation is absolutely devastating to people with family they cant see any time soon.

But for now at least 80 percent of the Australian population seem more then happy with the status quo, Why would any government with a looming election risk votes by promoting a re opening strategy

At this point a closed Australia would seem to almost guarantee's an election win, state or federal.

Australia made the right decision over the last 14 months with the border closure and it ultimately saved us a world of pain ( see the rest of the world ) But while none of us expected to be taking off on a One World Explorer fare on August the 10th we just want some hope and a plan, any plan.

As the vaccine roll out has shown, We don't do those very well.

Which is why the Prime Minister will be purposely vague on international borders until he is re-elected as late as May 2022, but preferably earlier. Very shortly after that, open international travel and immigration very very quickly. I'm booking Krakow 1/7/2022 and pretty confident I'll get to leave, on basis of worst case Home Quarantine for 7 days (max) with a test to release.

 

[GlennT]

Yep. July 2020. Wait and see.

And this has to occur as I have multiple international flights scheduled from this point!

 

[GlennT]

Sorry Dr Ralph! It didn't happen. Had to cancel 3 international trips, and one new one for April 2022 looking far from certain.

 

[Chalkie]

View attachment 249488

While Australia is a signatory to and has ratified the ICCPR, Australia has not incorporated the ICCPR into domestic law - it isn't part of the Australian Constitution or any Federal statutes. As such, the ICCPR means very little in Australia. I explained upthread the basis for the freedom of movement of Australians - it is nothing more than a negative right to do something that is not expressly prohibited. Australians have no express right to leave Australia or to re-enter Australia. Pre-Covid, Australians could leave Australia only because the Federal government had not prohibited it, and could re-enter only because the Immigration Act did not require of citizens the need to obtain any sort of entry permit.

Australians have very few express rights that are enshrined as a matter of foundational law. Pretty much any rights or freedoms you think you might have are at best negative permissions, and only exist because a government hasn't got around to extinguishing or restricting them yet.

 

[Flashback]

Don't forget the "scary" new Nepal variant, which is a variant of the India variant... Ah... It never ends.

 

[Eastwick20]

Which is why Scomo will be purposely vague on international borders until he is re-elected as late as May 2022, but preferably earlier. Very shortly after that, open international travel and immigration very very quickly. I'm booking Krakow 1/7/2022 and pretty confident I'll get to leave, on basis of worst case Home Quarantine for 7 days (max) with a test to release.

I do hope you are right, But with the announcement today of a new brand new purpose built quarantine facility in Victoria which most likely wont be operational till the beginning of 2022 why would they spend 200 million plus for a facility that will only be used for possibly a few months and then not needed?

 

[dajop]

While Australia is a signatory to and has ratified the ICCPR, Australia has not incorporated the ICCPR into domestic law - it isn't part of the Australian Constitution or any Federal statutes. As such, the ICCPR means very little in Australia.

But even if you assume the ICCPR is enforceable in Australia, it is worth reading all of Article 12, which relates to freedom of movement, which I have quoted below. There is sufficient wriggle move in 3) to deal with public health matters, therefore it would come down to some form of adjudication around whether the restrictions were proportionate.

Article 12
1. Everyone lawfully within the territory of a State shall, within that territory, have the right to liberty of movement and freedom to choose his residence.
2. Everyone shall be free to leave any country, including his own.
3. The above-mentioned rights shall not be subject to any restrictions except those which are provided by law, are necessary to protect national security, public order (ordre public), public health or morals or the rights and freedoms of others, and are consistent with the other rights recognized in the present Covenant.
4. No one shall be arbitrarily deprived of the right to enter his own country.

There is also the possibility of derogation, so it's clear that many of the rights are not inviolable, but that seems to relate to the “life of the nation”, not the lives of individuals in the nation. But still further wriggle room.

Article 4
1 . In time of public emergency which threatens the life of the nation and the existence of which is officially proclaimed, the States Parties to the present Covenant may take measures derogating from their obligations under the present Covenant to the extent strictly required by the exigencies of the situation, provided that such measures are not inconsistent with their other obligations under international law and do not involve discrimination solely on the ground of race, colour, sex, language, religion or social origin.
2. No derogation from articles 6, 7, 8 (paragraphs I and 2), 11, 15, 16 and 18 may be made under this provision.
3. Any State Party to the present Covenant availing itself of the right of derogation shall immediately inform the other States Parties to the present Covenant, through the intermediary of the Secretary-General of the United Nations, of the provisions from which it has derogated and of the reasons by which it was actuated. A further communication shall be made, through the same intermediary, on the date on which it terminates such derogation.

 

[dajop]

I do hope you are right, But with the announcement today of a new brand new purpose built quarantine facility in Victoria which most likely wont be operational till the beginning of 2022 why would they spend 200 million plus for a facility that will only be used for possibly a few months and then not needed?

I presume we will start to see restrictions that follow a risk based approach (rather than being more or less one size fits all, except NZ), i.e. vary depending on various parameters (including someones travel history).

 

[justinbrett]

While Australia is a signatory to and has ratified the ICCPR, Australia has not incorporated the ICCPR into domestic law - it isn't part of the Australian Constitution or any Federal statutes. As such, the ICCPR means very little in Australia. I explained upthread the basis for the freedom of movement of Australians - it is nothing more than a negative right to do something that is not expressly prohibited. Australians have no express right to leave Australia or to re-enter Australia. Pre-Covid, Australians could leave Australia only because the Federal government had not prohibited it, and could re-enter only because the Immigration Act did not require of citizens the need to obtain any sort of entry permit.

Australians have very few express rights that are enshrined as a matter of foundational law. Pretty much any rights or freedoms you think you might have are at best negative permissions, and only exist because a government hasn't got around to extinguishing or restricting them yet.

This is a rabbit hole we probably don't want to go down as it deserves its own thread. We don't have a bill of rights which many say is a big problem.

However, legislation is only an internal application of the treaty - Australia is accountable to the rest of the world by ratifying it. If it were to continually erode these rights, it would damage Australia's reputation and inhibit Australia calling out others like China on its failure to uphold basic human rights. It certainly doesn't want to do that.

We've had a lot of press in the UK & USA for not letting our citizens come home. Who knows what damage that has already done to our reputation.

 

[oznflfan]

I do hope you are right, But with the announcement today of a new brand new purpose built quarantine facility in Victoria which most likely wont be operational till the beginning of 2022 why would they spend 200 million plus for a facility that will only be used for possibly a few months and then not needed?

There will always be unvaccinated people travelling to Australia, by choice not vaccinated or unable to secure suitable vaccination (or vaccinated by non Aust government approved vaccines), plus there will be countries with high outbreaks ongoing (like smartraveller red countries).

I know why he was delaying the build, exactly as you say, could build a big white elephant.

Disappointingly I heard construction to start in Jan 2022, and completion and first inmates Sept 2022. If this was in China they could build the whole complex in a month, tops.

 

[justinbrett]

There will always be unvaccinated people travelling to Australia, by choice not vaccinated or unable to secure suitable vaccination (or vaccinated by non Aust government approved vaccines), plus there will be countries with high outbreaks ongoing (like smartraveller red countries).

I know why he was delaying the build, exactly as you say, could build a big white elephant.

Disappointingly I heard construction to start in Jan 2022, and completion and first inmates Sept 2022. If this was in China they could build the whole complex in a month, tops.

That's not correct. It's due to open Sep 21.

 

[DC3]

That's not correct. It's due to open Sep 21.

Did the government actually announce that?

 

[Eastwick20]

There will always be unvaccinated people travelling to Australia, by choice not vaccinated or unable to secure suitable vaccination (or vaccinated by non Aust government approved vaccines), plus there will be countries with high outbreaks ongoing (like smartraveller red countries).

I know why he was delaying the build, exactly as you say, could build a big white elephant.

Disappointingly I heard construction to start in Jan 2022, and completion and first inmates Sept 2022. If this was in China they could build the whole complex in a month, tops.

Did the government actually announce that?

There is absolutely no chance that will be up and running in 13 weeks!
I've more chance of winning the lottery

I could be totally wrong but I'm almost certain I heard that the plan was building to commence in September with a planned opening in January

That's assuming no delays in the tender process, build and no fighting and peacock feather display's between the state and federal governments on how it should be built
None of that would happen right and delay everything?

 

[justinbrett]

There is absolutely no chance that will be up and running in 13 weeks!
I've more chance of winning the lottery

I could be totally wrong but I'm almost certain I heard that the plan was building to commence in September with a planned opening in January

That's assuming no delays in the tender process, build and no fighting and peacock feather display's between the state and federal governments on how it should be built
None of that would happen right and delay everything?

Yeah I think Channel 9 have it wrong, they're reporting opening in Sep - The Australian / Sky news are saying start in Sep, opening Jan 22.

 

[mviy]

500 beds is a starting point but nowhere near enough unless there are plans to either increase hotel quarantine capacity significantly or allow a significant amount of home quarantine. We need to be able to accommodate several times the number coming into the country at the moment.